总量专题报告 2025 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 打造资本市场高质量发展新局面——海 通总量前瞻 25 年"两会"系列 5 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_MainInfo] 总量研究 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心结论：①资本市场高质量发展能推动产业升级、增加社会财富效应，去 年以来资本市场"1+N"政策体系不断完善与深化。②培育新质生产力需金融 体系支持，目前我国直接融资占比仍低，资本市场将加大对科创企业的支持。 ③中长期资金入市能够增强资本市场内在稳定性，未来有望健全养老金体 系、落实长周期考核制度、加快高水平开放。 当前宏观背景下资本市场高质量发展具有重要意义。从资产配置变迁视角看， 近年来权益在居民资产配置中的重要性正在上升，其财富效应有助于扩大内 需。当市场表现较好时，居民对经济和财富增值的预期也会边际提高，进而 提升整体社会的信心指数。从海内外经验来看，当市场环境处在牛市中，一 般都会伴随着消费信心指数的持续回升。从宏观背景看，当前我国处在产业 结构转型的关键阶段，资本市场能够通过直接融资支持产业升级。为推动资 本市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2025, only 3 out of 8 tracked industries maintained positive growth, while 5 experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth included restaurants, beer, and soft drinks, while sub-high-end liquor, quick-frozen foods, condiments, and dairy products saw single-digit declines. Mass liquor experienced double-digit declines. The sluggish data is attributed to a high year-on-year base and inertia factors from the previous year [8][33]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - **Sub-high-end and Above Liquor**: February revenue was 48 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 99 billion yuan, down 7.0%. Demand for banquet scenarios decreased post-Spring Festival, and many companies are controlling shipments [4][11]. - **Mass and Below Liquor**: February revenue was 16 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 38 billion yuan, down 18.3%. This segment has seen 13 consecutive months of negative growth [13]. Beer Industry - February revenue was 14.5 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 32.8 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The industry is experiencing a low inventory level, creating a window for performance recovery [5][16]. Condiments Industry - February revenue was 37.6 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 83.6 billion yuan, flat year-on-year. Demand during the Spring Festival was robust, and the industry is seeing a concentration of market share among leading brands [18]. Dairy Industry - February revenue was 42.1 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 87.6 billion yuan, down 2.3%. There is a marginal improvement in sales performance compared to the previous year [21]. Quick-frozen Foods Industry - February revenue was 12.5 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 27 billion yuan, down 0.5%. The demand for traditional frozen products is weak, while pre-prepared dishes are performing well [23]. Soft Drinks Industry - February revenue was 47.5 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 140 billion yuan, up 2.1%. The industry is preparing for the peak season with various promotional activities [26]. Restaurant Industry - February revenue for listed restaurant companies was 13.8 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was 30.3 billion yuan, up 4.3%. The industry is moving away from price competition and focusing on quality [28].

研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2025 龟甲万 Kikkoman Corporation (2801 JP) 首次覆盖: 全球布局逆势重生，多元化助力持续发展 Global Layout Makes the Company Reborn, Diversification Helps Sustainable Development: Initiation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖中性 Initiate with NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 ￥1,454 目标价 ￥1,430 市值 ￥1,409bn / US$9.40bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$22.70mn 发行股票数目 969.42mn 自由流通股 (%) 68% 1 年股价最高最低值 ￥2,026-￥1,426 注：现价￥1,486 为 2025 年 02 月 27 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -9.1% -11.6% -21.6% 绝对值（美元） -5.3% -9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for Chart Industries, reaffirming its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025, with expected revenue between $4.65 billion and $4.85 billion [2][3]. Core Insights - Despite revenue and earnings falling short of consensus expectations for Q4 2024, the company reported strong backlog and new order performance, emphasizing optimism regarding liquefied natural gas contracts [1][2]. - The adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was $80 million, with revenue at $1.107 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, although it was below the consensus estimate of $1.168 billion [2][5]. - The company reported a record backlog of $4.85 billion, up from $4.535 billion in Q3 2024, with total orders for the quarter reaching $1.55 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in the previous quarter [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was $80 million, with revenue of $1.107 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA of $284 million, slightly below consensus estimates [2][5]. - Gross margin was approximately 34%, aligning with the company's mid-term guidance of 30% [2][5]. Guidance and Outlook - The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of $4.65 billion to $4.85 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $1.175 billion and $1.225 billion [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be between $12 and $13, with free cash flow anticipated to be between $550 million and $600 million, an increase from $388 million in fiscal year 2024 [2][3]. Leverage and Financial Policy - The net leverage ratio stands at 2.80 times, down from 3.04 times in Q3 2024, with the company aiming to reach its target leverage ratio of 2.0 to 2.5 times this year [3]. - The company maintains its mid-term guidance of double-digit organic revenue growth, a gross margin midpoint of 30%, and a free cash flow conversion rate of 95% to 100% [3].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 28 Feb 2025 日本必需消费可选消费 Japan Staples Discretionary 日本消费行业 1 月跟踪报告：食品涨价抑制需求，餐饮百货维持高增 Rising Food Prices Curbed Demand; Catering and Department Stores Sustained Growth | 芮雯 Raven Rui | 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen | Qiao Xu | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | raven.w.rui@htisec.com | hongwei.wen@htisec.com | qiao.xu@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：1 月通胀再次加速，四季度实际工资正增长。2025 年 1 月，消费者信心指数下降至 35.2，创 2023 年 9 月以来 的 16 个 ...

研究报告 Research Report 28 Feb 2025 中国 & 印度化工 China (A-share) & India Chemical Engineering 中印农化行业报告—刺激政策出台，中国化肥价格持续上涨 China & India Agrochemical Sector- Stimulus Policies are Gradually Introduced; Chinese fertilizer prices rise [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 万华化学 | Outperform 福斯特 | | Outperform | | 宝丰能源 | Outperform 云天化 | | Outperform | | 盐湖股份 | Outperform PI Industries | | Outperform | | SRF | Neutral | 淮北矿业 | Outperform | | 巨化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Corp [1] Core Insights - Xiaomi's pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra significantly enhances its brand image while retaining its value-for-money proposition, marking a decisive move into the ultra-premium market [2][10] - The SU7 Ultra's price was reduced to Rmb529,900 from an initial pre-sale price of Rmb814,900, exceeding market expectations and allowing middle-class consumers to access luxury car experiences [2][8] - The vehicle's impressive specifications, including 1,548 PS power and a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds, position it as a competitive model in the ultra-premium segment [9][12] Summary by Sections Event - Xiaomi officially launched the SU7 Ultra on February 27, 2025, with a guide price of Rmb529,900, a reduction of Rmb285,000 from the pre-sale price, leading to over 6,900 orders in 10 minutes and 10,000 in 2 hours [6][1] Comments - The "Quality-to-Price" strategy is pivotal in Xiaomi's brand upgrade, showcasing its commitment to high-end transformation while maintaining cost-effectiveness [7][10] - The significant price drop is expected to broaden sales potential, although volume is not the primary focus for Xiaomi [8][10] - The SU7 Ultra's pricing establishes it as a "gold-standard" model, enhancing its competitive edge in the ultra-premium market [9][10] Technology and Features - The SU7 Ultra features advanced technology, including Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8295 chipset and Xiaomi HyperOS, supporting five-screen interconnection and enhanced voice control through the AI assistant Xiao Ai [11] - The intelligent driving system boasts a total computing power of 11.45 EFLOPS and utilizes a comprehensive sensor suite for 360-degree coverage, positioning it among the industry's top tier [11][12] - The full rollout of the HAD intelligent driving system is anticipated to enhance competition with Tesla and other leading domestic intelligent driving companies [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Corp [1] Core Insights - Xiaomi's pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra significantly enhances its brand image while retaining its value-for-money philosophy, marking a decisive move into the ultra-premium market [2][10] - The SU7 Ultra's price was reduced to Rmb529,900 from an initial pre-sale price of Rmb814,900, which is expected to broaden its sales potential, although volume is not the primary focus for Xiaomi [2][8] - The vehicle's impressive specifications, including 1,548 PS power and a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds, position it as a competitive model in the ultra-premium segment [9][12] Summary by Sections Event - Xiaomi officially launched the SU7 Ultra on February 27, 2025, with a guide price of Rmb529,900, a reduction of Rmb285,000 from the pre-sale price, exceeding market expectations [6][1] - The vehicle secured over 6,900 orders within 10 minutes and surpassed 10,000 orders in 2 hours post-launch [6] Comments - The "Quality-to-Price" strategy is leading Xiaomi's brand upgrade, showcasing its commitment to high-end transformation while maintaining cost-effectiveness [7][10] - The pricing strategy allows middle-class consumers to experience luxury car features, potentially accelerating the break-even timeline for its automotive business [8][10] Technology and Features - The SU7 Ultra is equipped with advanced technology, including Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8295 chipset and Xiaomi HyperOS, enhancing voice control and interactive experiences [11] - The intelligent driving system boasts a total computing power of 11.45 EFLOPS and utilizes a comprehensive sensor suite for 360-degree coverage [11][12] - The model supports various intelligent driving capabilities, including automatic recognition for tolls and parking assistance, with a full rollout of features expected soon [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for Array Technologies, indicating that the stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [14]. Core Insights - Array Technologies reported adjusted EBITDA slightly below market expectations for the fourth quarter, leading to a negative market reaction. The company also reported a net loss due to impairment related to its STI acquisition [1][2]. - For the fiscal year 2025, Array provided revenue guidance of $1.05 to $1.15 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 15-26%, while adjusted EBITDA guidance is set at $180 to $200 million, which is below the market expectation of $233 million [2][3]. - The company acknowledged ongoing headwinds in the utility-scale solar market but remains optimistic about moderate growth in Europe, despite challenges in Brazil due to currency depreciation and new tariffs on solar components [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, Array reported net revenue of $275 million, a 19% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 7% decrease year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 28% [3][6]. - The adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was a loss of $141 million, primarily due to a $74 million non-cash goodwill impairment and a $92 million non-cash long-term intangible asset write-down related to the STI acquisition [3][6]. - The company reaffirmed a strong order backlog of $2 billion, consistent with previous quarters, indicating stable demand despite market challenges [2][3].

[Table_Title] Research Report 28 Feb 2025 布鲁姆能源 (BE US) 2025 财年指引向好；强化成本管理；可能签订更多公用事业模式 协议 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件 我们预计 Bloom Energy 的 4Q24 业绩市场反应非常积极，报告收入和 EBITDA 远高于预期，这得益于利润率和收入的 提高，尤其是产品部门的收入，调整后的净收入为 1.05 亿美元，也高于预期。该公司预计 2025 财年 收入预期略高 于普遍预期，并强调了 2025 财年的强劲势头，可能与公用事业公司达成更多协议，并继续以两位数的速度降低成 本。 点评 2025 财年收入预期高于预期，但指引区间较大：公司提供的 2025 财年收入预期为 16-18.5 亿美元，同比增长 9-26% （而预期为 16.7 亿美元），非 GAAP 毛利率为 c29%（而预期为 c29 ...