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中国&中国必需消费:散飞批价跌近2000,仅婴配粉折扣力度减小
海通国际· 2025-05-28 10:45
Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Eastroc Beverage, while some companies like Gujing Gongjiu receive a "Neutral" rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the wholesale prices of various baijiu products, with Moutai's price falling to around 2000 yuan, while infant formula discounts have decreased slightly [5][7]. - The overall discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, beer, liquid milk, and convenience foods have increased, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [18][20]. Summary by Category Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices are reported at 2140 yuan for cases and 2070 yuan for single bottles, showing a month-on-month change of 0 and -40 yuan respectively [33]. - Wuliangye's price is at 945 yuan, with a slight decrease of 5 yuan from the previous month [33]. - Luzhou Laojiao remains stable at 865 yuan, unchanged from last month [33]. Discount Trends - Infant formula discounts have slightly decreased, with average discount rates rising from 91.3% to 92.2% [17]. - Discounts for soft drinks have increased, with average rates dropping from 94.1% to 88.7% [18]. - Beer discounts have also increased, with average rates falling from 81.1% to 78.7% [18]. - Liquid milk discounts decreased from 71.9% to 69.7% [18]. - Convenience foods saw a decrease in discount rates from 96.1% to 94.2% [18].
海天味业:短期经营稳健,长期竞争力巩固-20250527
海通国际· 2025-05-27 13:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb50.40, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb44.78 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable short-term operations while solidifying its long-term competitive strength through product upgrades and new product penetration [3][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb29.7 billion, Rmb32.8 billion, and Rmb36.3 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 11% [13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for the fiscal year ending December 2024 is projected at Rmb26.9 billion, with a growth rate of 9.5%. For 2025, revenue is expected to increase to Rmb29.7 billion, reflecting a 10.4% growth [8]. - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at Rmb6.4 billion, with a growth rate of 12.8%. The net profit is projected to reach Rmb7.0 billion in 2025, representing a 10.6% increase [8]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company will focus on upgrading classic product categories such as soy sauce and oyster sauce while expanding into health-oriented products like organic and low-salt options. New product categories have shown significant growth, with revenue increases of 16.8% and 20.8% for cooking wine and vinegar, respectively [3][9]. - The company is transitioning from extensive development to refined operations, aiming for full category coverage [9]. Supply Chain and Sales Network - A flexible supply chain transformation is underway to adapt to diverse channel demands, enhancing the company's market share through improved cost control and responsiveness to customized demands [10][11]. - Online sales channels have shown remarkable growth, achieving Rmb1.24 billion in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, which is significantly better than the overall company performance [10]. International Expansion - The company's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange supports its internationalization strategy, with a focus on steady overseas market expansion and localized business strategies [12][5]. Financial Metrics - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is Rmb1.26, with a P/E ratio of 36X, decreasing to 29X by 2027 [8][13].
友邦保险:泛亚高品质寿险标杆
海通国际· 2025-05-27 00:30
友邦保险 AIA Group (1299 HK) 首次覆盖:泛亚高品质寿险标杆 研究报告 Research Report 26 May 2025 Pan-Asian premier life insurance leader: Initiation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$64.85 目标价 HK$97.80 HTI ESG 3.5-3.9-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$693.58bn / US$88.62bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$337.08mn 发行股票数目 10,695mn 自由流通股 (%) 100% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$74.55-HK$49.95 注:现价 HK$64.85 为 2025 年 05 月 23 日收盘价 资料来源: Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth ...
名创优品 (MNSO US): 长期方向不变,短期利润承压
海通国际· 2025-05-26 04:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of USD 22.50, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 18.29 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.43 billion in 1Q, representing a 19% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit decreased by 5% to RMB 587 million [3][16]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 2.49 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with a net closure of 111 domestic stores [3][16]. - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1.59 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, with a net addition of 95 overseas stores [5][16]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year, while the adjusted net profit margin (NPM) was 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [8][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 20.9 billion, RMB 24.9 billion, and RMB 29.2 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be RMB 2.76 billion, RMB 3.66 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion [10][17]. - The company anticipates a net store opening of 200-300 in China and 500-600 overseas in 2025, focusing on high-quality development and channel upgrades [4][5]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The sales expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to expenses related to direct stores [8][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, with expectations of 13.2%, 14.7%, and 15.6% for 2025-2027 [10][14].
潮宏基:店均高速增长,开店节奏稳健,注重品牌系统性工程建设-20250526
海通国际· 2025-05-26 02:30AI Processing
[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 May 2025 潮宏基 CHJ Industry (002345 CH) 店均高速增长,开店节奏稳健,注重品牌系统性工程建设 yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件:5 月 23 日,海通国际海外消费组调研潮宏基总部,参加公司高管交流会。公司管理层表示终端增速自 2024 年 四季度开始提升,2025 年 4 月份店均增速约 45%,5 月初至 5 月 20 日增速约为 30%。5 月门店人流量在五一假期后 有所下滑,主要是受节日透支效应影响。 差异化打法应对市场竞争,产品设计突出年轻时尚风格。面对激烈市场竞争,管理层表示,其产品始终坚持差异化 定位,不做纯粹的"量+价"竞争,更重视客户体验和品牌美誉度。公司聚焦年轻消费群体,20-40 岁消费者占比约 80%,其中 25-35 岁区间为核心人 ...
山金国际:黄金价格上涨带动利润提升,内外联动增强资源接续能力-20250524
海通国际· 2025-05-24 00:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanjin International Gold, with a target price of Rmb24.40 based on a current price of Rmb20.54 [2][6]. Core Views - The rise in gold prices has led to increased profits for the company, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit expected in the coming years. The company is enhancing its resource connectivity capabilities through strategic acquisitions [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating income of Rmb4.321 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 185.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb694 million, up 37.91% year-on-year and 55.66% quarter-on-quarter, marking a historical high for a single quarter [3][13]. - The gross profit margin for mineral gold significantly increased to 77.57%, with a sales price of Rmb659 per gram, reflecting a 35% year-on-year increase. The unit sales cost decreased by 5.41% to Rmb147.87 per gram [4][14]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of Rmb15.845 billion, Rmb17.904 billion, and Rmb20.708 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profits are expected to be Rmb3.374 billion, Rmb4.196 billion, and Rmb5.355 billion for the same years [6][16]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb1.22 in 2025 to Rmb1.93 in 2027, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 26 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [6][11]. Resource Acquisition and Expansion - The company has made significant progress in resource acquisition, including the purchase of a 52.07% stake in Yunnan Western Mining Co., Ltd. and the acquisition of the Osino project in Namibia, which adds 127.2 tons of gold resources and is expected to increase annual production capacity by 5 tons [5][15].
博彦科技:2024年年报与2025年1季报点评经营业绩稳健,生态合作助力新业务拓展-20250524
海通国际· 2025-05-24 00:25
经营业绩稳健,生态合作助力新业务拓展 博彦科技(002649) ——2024 年年报与 2025 年 1 季报点评 计算机 [Table_Industry] /信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级: 优于大市 [Table_Target] 目标价格: 18.45 [Table_Trend] 升幅(%) 1M 3M 12M 绝对升幅 16% -11% 53% 相对指数 12% -5% 48% -18% 4% 25% 47% 69% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公 本报告导读: 公司经营表现稳健,传统业务研发工程、IT 运维业务维稳,强化与互联网 AI 大厂生 态合作,信创、AI 行业应用等咨询、解决方案类新业务 25 年有望加速发展。 投资要点: | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) 风险提示。AI | 2023A | 2024A 发展不及预期;生态合作推进不及预期;市场竞争加 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 ...
创业慧康:2024年年报与2025年1季报点评HI-HIS推广加速,AI医疗产品持续拓展-20250524
海通国际· 2025-05-24 00:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price raised to 6.71 RMB from 5.25 RMB, reflecting a forward PE of 70x for 2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on revenue and profit due to project delays, with 2024 revenue projected at 1.42 billion RMB, a decrease of 11.96% year-on-year, and a net loss of 174 million RMB [11]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expanding its smart healthcare and public health business, with significant software orders and the implementation of its "Huikang Cloud" strategy [12]. - The integration of AI technologies is accelerating, with the launch of new products and platforms aimed at enhancing healthcare services and operational efficiency [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.61 billion RMB, 1.85 billion RMB, and 2.17 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, 14.8%, and 17.0% respectively [10][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 148 million RMB in 2025, with EPS projected at 0.10 RMB [10][11]. - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with a loss of 174 million RMB compared to a profit of 37 million RMB in the previous year [11].
朗新集团:聚焦双轮驱动,携手蚂蚁构筑强大生态-20250524
海通国际· 2025-05-24 00:20
聚焦双轮驱动,携手蚂蚁构筑强大生态 朗新集团(300682) ——朗新集团 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.22 2025-05-23 计算机 [Table_Industry] /信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级: 优于大市 [Table_Target] 目标价格: 17.76 本报告导读: 公司 2024 年剥离非核心业务导致业绩承压,2025 年公司能源数智化、能源互联网 双轮发展,叠加生态合作加强以及 AI 赋能新应用,看好公司长期发展势头。 投资要点: 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 公 司 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 4,727 | 4,479 | 5,173 | 6,080 | 6,931 | | (+/-)% | 3.9% | -5.2% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 14.0% | | 净利润(归 ...
滔搏:24、25财年营收利润承压,现金强劲派息稳定-20250523
海通国际· 2025-05-23 13:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [19]. Core Insights - The company's operating revenue for the 2024/25 fiscal year was 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with the decline in the second half narrowing to 5.4% compared to 7.9% in the first half [2][8]. - The retail business, the main revenue source, saw a 6.8% decline to 23.03 billion yuan, with improvements in the second half attributed to online sales initiatives [2][8]. - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while net profit fell by 41.9% to 12.85 billion yuan, influenced by increased discount rates and changes in sales channel mix [4][10]. - The company reported strong cash generation capabilities, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 135% [5][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's revenue was under pressure, with a total of 27.01 billion yuan for the fiscal year, down 6.6% year-on-year. The retail business, which is the primary revenue source, declined by 6.8% to 23.03 billion yuan [2][8]. Online Business Growth - The company has focused on increasing its online business, achieving double-digit growth year-on-year, with online sales accounting for 30% to 40% of total direct sales [3][9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while net profit dropped by 41.9% to 12.85 billion yuan. The company aims to improve efficiency and profit margins in the upcoming fiscal year [4][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company demonstrated strong cash generation, with net cash flow from operating activities at 3.76 billion yuan, and proposed a total annual dividend of 0.28 yuan per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 135% [5][11].