研究报告 Research Report 27 Mar 2025 泡泡玛特 Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 点评报告：收入利润新高，开启千亿征程 Review Report: Topline and Bottomline Hitting New Record, Revenue Heading to RMB100bn [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$140.70 目标价 HK$158.20 HTI ESG 4.0-3.5-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$188.95bn / US$24.30bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$102.32mn 发行股票数目 1,343mn 自由流通股 (%) 49% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$140.70-HK$27.60 注：现价 HK$140.70 为 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sino Biopharmaceutical [2][11][17] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of CNY 28.9 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, with a gross profit margin of 81.5% [3][14] - Innovative products are expected to drive double-digit revenue growth in FY25, particularly in oncology and surgery/analgesia segments [4][15] - The company plans to launch seven innovative products in FY25, including key candidates such as TQB3616 and Meloxicam [5][16] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was CNY 28.9 billion, with a net profit of CNY 3.5 billion, marking a 50.1% increase year-on-year [3][14] - R&D expenses increased by 15.6% to CNY 5.1 billion, representing 17.6% of total revenue [3][14] - The company expects revenue to reach CNY 32.4 billion in FY25, a growth of 12.3% year-on-year [6][16] Product Segments - Revenue from innovative drugs reached CNY 12.1 billion, up 22% year-on-year, while generics contributed CNY 16.8 billion, growing 3% [4][15] - The oncology segment generated CNY 10.7 billion, driven by strong sales of key products [18] - The surgery/analgesia segment saw a revenue increase of 19% to CNY 4.5 billion, supported by the sales of Flurbiprofen Cataplasms [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant contributions from new product launches and clinical data readouts in 2025 [5][16] - Management expects the liver diseases segment to introduce one innovative drug and five biosimilars/generics between 2025 and 2027 [18] - The report projects a target price of HKD 5.52 for the stock, based on a P/E ratio of 25.2x for 2025 [6][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 33% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 16.11 billion RMB, up 23% year-over-year and 59% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - The net loss for 2024 was narrowed to 5.79 billion RMB, with Q4 net loss at 1.33 billion RMB, showing improvement [8]. - Vehicle sales revenue in Q4 was 14.67 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 67% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased deliveries of 92,000 units, which is a 52% year-over-year and 97% quarter-over-quarter increase [8]. - The company is expected to continue strong performance in 2025, with a forecast of 91,000-93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 317%-326% [8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 90.83 billion RMB, 130.71 billion RMB, and 152.66 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.2 billion RMB, 2.9 billion RMB, and 6.5 billion RMB [2][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 14.3% in 2024, up 12.8 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM at 14.4% [8]. - The company plans to expand its global presence, targeting over 60 countries by the end of 2025, with a goal for overseas sales to account for 50% of total sales in the next 10 years [8]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.8, 1.3, and 1.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The target price is set at 103.90 HKD, based on a PS of 2.0 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with a target price of USD 146, adjusted down from USD 168 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates a lack of short-term catalysts for NVIDIA, but highlights significant long-term upside potential [9]. - NVIDIA's stock price is currently viewed as attractive despite a recent decline following the GTC conference, as new products and partnerships are expected to have limited immediate impact [11][12]. - The company is evolving from merely selling hardware to becoming an operating system platform company, integrating data and business with its customers [13]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The report discusses the NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference (GTC) and the keynote speech by Jensen Huang, which outlined the company's future direction in AI and computing [10][15]. AI Development Roadmap - NVIDIA is currently in the generative AI stage and is transitioning towards agent AI, eventually moving into the robotics era [15]. Chip Developments - NVIDIA revealed significant chip purchases by top supercomputer operators, with 1.3 million Hopper architecture chips purchased last year and 3.6 million Blackwell chips expected this year [16]. - The Grace Blackwell solution has entered full-scale production, and new platforms and chips are planned for future release, showcasing NVIDIA's innovation in chip technology [19]. Partnerships and Applications - NVIDIA announced collaborations with telecommunications companies for 6G technology and with General Motors for AI-driven self-driving cars, emphasizing safety with the Halos automotive safety solution [18][21]. - The introduction of the open-source humanoid robot functional model and partnerships with DeepMind and Disney for robotics development indicate a strategic expansion into the robotics field [20]. Performance Metrics - The report notes NVIDIA's P/E ratios of 23 times for CY25/FY26 and 17 times for CY26/FY27, positioning it favorably compared to other major tech companies [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of $5.30, representing an 81% upside potential [8][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $298.6 million in 2024, marking a 29.8% year-over-year growth, and recorded its first positive net income of $5 million under GAAP [3][17]. - The growth was primarily driven by strong performance in IoT PaaS and smart solutions, with IoT PaaS revenue reaching $217.1 million, up 29.4% [4][17]. - The overall gross profit margin improved to 47.4%, with IoT PaaS gross margin increasing by 3.4 percentage points [4][17]. - The company successfully reduced total operating expenses by 11.0% year-over-year through strategic team streamlining and cost control [4][17]. - The number of premium IoT PaaS customers increased to 298, contributing 86.9% of total revenue, indicating enhanced customer stickiness [4][5]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $359 million, $425 million, and $494 million, with respective growth rates of 20.2%, 18.3%, and 16.3% [3][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow significantly, reaching $110 million by 2027, with a corresponding EPS of $0.18 [3][8]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a net cash balance exceeding $1 billion by the end of 2024 [4][17]. Business Strategy and Development - The company continues to invest in AI technologies, launching the Tuya AI Agent development platform, integrating major language models to enhance developer capabilities [6][7]. - The focus remains on developing AI devices and smart applications, particularly in audio-video interaction and decision automation [7][8]. - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders, having approved a second dividend totaling approximately $37 million for 2024 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 62.30, representing a potential upside of 36% [4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth, with total revenue projected to reach RMB 3.93 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.95%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 640 million, up 257.34% year-on-year [4][14]. - The company is leveraging AI as a core driver for its business expansion, focusing on three growth curves: digital maintenance, digital energy, and air-ground integrated smart solutions [4][14]. - The digital maintenance business is expected to generate revenue of approximately RMB 3.04 billion in 2024, while the digital energy segment is projected to reach RMB 867 million, reflecting growth rates of 14.59% and 52.98% respectively [4][14]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of RMB 3.93 billion, net profit of RMB 640 million - 2025: Revenue of RMB 4.73 billion, net profit of RMB 804 million - 2026: Revenue of RMB 5.67 billion, net profit of RMB 970 million - The expected growth rates for revenue are 20.9% in 2024, 20.3% in 2025, and 19.9% in 2026. Net profit growth rates are projected at 257.3%, 25.6%, and 20.6% for the same years [3][4][14]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - ADAS products: RMB 378.21 million - New energy charging services: RMB 793.14 million - Software cloud services: RMB 73.54 million - TPMS products: RMB 708.14 million - Automotive diagnostic products: RMB 1,415.25 million - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3.93 billion, with a gross margin of 56.6% [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of $5.30, representing an 81% upside potential from the current price [8][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth, with 2024 revenue reaching $298.6 million, a 29.8% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by strong performance in IoT PaaS and smart solutions [3][17]. - The company reported its first positive net income under GAAP in 2024, with a net profit of $5 million, compared to a net loss of $60.3 million in 2023. The NON-GAAP net profit was $75.3 million, reflecting a 268.5% year-over-year increase [3][17]. - The overall gross profit margin improved to 47.4% in 2024, up 1 percentage point from 2023, indicating enhanced profitability, particularly in the IoT PaaS segment [3][17]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $359 million, $425 million, and $494 million, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 20.2%, 18.3%, and 16.3% [3][8]. - The company expects to maintain a strong gross profit margin, with estimates of 46.4% for 2025 and 45.7% for 2026 [3][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is $42 million, increasing to $110 million by 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [3][14]. Business Strategy and Customer Base - The company is focusing on optimizing its customer structure, with an increase in premium IoT PaaS customers contributing a higher percentage of total revenue, rising from 83.4% in 2023 to 86.9% in 2024 [4][5]. - The developer ecosystem is expanding, with 1.316 million registered developers and over 1.07 million smart device SKUs developed through the platform [5][6]. - The company is prioritizing AI investments, launching the Tuya AI Agent development platform to integrate various large language models, enhancing its service offerings [6][7]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a second dividend for 2024, totaling approximately $37 million, reflecting confidence in its financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 62.30, representing a potential upside of 36% [4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth, with total revenue projected to reach RMB 3.93 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.95%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 640 million, up 257.34% year-on-year [4][14]. - The company is leveraging AI as a core driver for its business expansion, focusing on three growth curves: digital maintenance, digital energy, and air-ground integrated smart solutions [4][14]. - The digital maintenance business is expected to generate revenue of approximately RMB 3.04 billion in 2024, while the digital energy business is projected to reach RMB 867 million, reflecting growth rates of 14.59% and 52.98% respectively [4][14]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of RMB 3.93 billion, net profit of RMB 640 million - 2025: Revenue of RMB 4.73 billion, net profit of RMB 804 million - 2026: Revenue of RMB 5.67 billion, net profit of RMB 970 million - The expected growth rates for revenue are 20.9% in 2024, 20.3% in 2025, and 19.9% in 2026. Net profit growth rates are projected at 257.3%, 25.6%, and 20.6% for the same years [3][4][14]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - Digital maintenance: RMB 3.04 billion - Digital energy: RMB 867 million - Other segments include ADAS products, new energy charging services, software cloud services, and automotive diagnostics, contributing to the overall revenue growth [8][14].

Group 1 - The report highlights that since 2000, during 8 significant declines in the US stock market, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have performed poorly, with average declines of 25.3% for A-shares and 28.7% for Hong Kong stocks, closely mirroring the average decline of 29.0% in the US market [7][9][15] - The report indicates that the US economy's size and influence are substantial, with its GDP accounting for 26.1% of the global total in 2023, and its consumer spending representing 26.5% of global consumption, which underscores the interconnectedness of global markets [16][17] - The report suggests that a scenario where the US stock market experiences volatility while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rise is the most favorable outcome, drawing parallels to historical periods where Japan and China outperformed the US during its market stagnation [20][22] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent downturn in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing maximum declines of 10.1% and 14.3% respectively, contrasts with the strong performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which have seen gains of 14.0% and 48.7% respectively since the beginning of the year [6][7] - The report emphasizes that the AI revolution could facilitate a transition in China's economic dynamics, potentially leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets similar to the early 2000s, as the country leverages its advantages in intelligent manufacturing and technology [25][26] - The report discusses the historical context of US market declines, noting that such downturns are often accompanied by economic recessions, which negatively impact global equity markets, indicating that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are unlikely to remain insulated from US market movements [18][20][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for the company [2][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a net profit increase of 200% year-on-year in 2024, reaching US$366 million [3][14] - The production of copper and zinc has steadily increased, with copper production at 400,000 tons in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, and zinc production at 220,000 tons, up 8% year-on-year [3][14] - The company is advancing major projects, including the successful development of Chalcobamba and the expansion of Kinsevere, which is expected to ramp up production in 2025 [15][17] - The company plans to increase production capacity at Khoemacau to 60,000 tons/year by 2026-2027 and aims for a target of 130,000 tons/year by 2028 [15][17] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from US$4.479 billion in 2024 to US$5.334 billion in 2025, representing a 19% increase [4][12] - Net profit is expected to rise significantly, with projections of US$472 million in 2025 and US$636 million in 2027 [4][12] - The company anticipates capital expenditures of US$1.2 billion to US$1.3 billion in 2025, with significant allocations for Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [16][17] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025 is US$0.04, with projections of US$0.05 for both 2026 and 2027 [5][18] - The target price is set at HK$4.65, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [5][18] Production Guidance - For 2025, copper production is expected to be between 470,000 and 520,000 tons, with specific contributions from Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [9][16] - Zinc production is projected to be between 310,000 and 340,000 tons [9][16]