2025ASCO 揭幕，持续关注创新药 [Table_Industry] 医药 ——国泰海通医药 2025 年 6 月月报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 医药制造业 增持 医药服务业 增持 本报告导读： 2025ASCO 揭幕，中国创新药资产继续在国际舞台上发光发热，持续关注景气度向上 的创新药。 投资要点： 行 业 月 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.02 [table_Authors] 余文心(分析师) 郑琴(分析师) 谈嘉程(分析师) 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040111 S0880525040108 S0880523070004 2025-06-03 [Table_Summary] 持续关注景气度向上的创新药：国泰海通医药 2025 年 6 月月度 A 股组合：恒瑞医药、华东医药、科伦药业、贝达药业、信立泰、百 利天恒、泽璟制药、益方生物、艾力斯、药明康德。 ...

研究报告 Research Report 1 Jun 2025 中国 & 中国 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) & US Discretionary 可选消费 W22 周度趋势解析：本周黄金珠宝板块景气度延续，化妆品和零食持续调整 Analysis of weekly discretionary trends： The prosperity of the gold and jewelry sector continued, while cosmetics and snacks kept adjusting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 耐克 | Outperform 苏泊尔 | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | Outperform | | 露露柠檬 | Neutral 名创优品 | Outperform | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 海信家电 | Outper ...

Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and Midea Group, while Budweiser Asia is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in the F&B sector, with Chagee reporting a total net income of 3.39 billion RMB for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [5]. - Pop Mart has suspended sales of its Labubu products in the UK due to safety concerns following an incident at a shopping center [5]. - Miniso has launched its original IP "Gift Family," aiming to engage urban youth through immersive experiences [5]. - Cotti Coffee has commenced operations at its Phase II roasting project, which is the largest single roasting facility in Asia with an annual capacity of 75,000 tons [5]. - The home appliance industry has seen a trade-in initiative that generated sales of 174.5 billion RMB from January to April 2025 [5]. Weekly Performance Summary - In the F&B sector, Nayuki's Tea saw a weekly increase of 9.7%, while Chagee and Tongqinglou both decreased by 5.4% [6]. - In the designer toys sector, Pop Mart had a slight increase of 0.3%, while Miniso experienced a decline of 6.9% [6]. - The home appliance sector showed JS Global Life and Vatti with increases of 1.0% and 0.5% respectively, while Ecovacs and Roborock both decreased by 6.4% [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including JD Health, WuXi Biologics, China Biologic Products, and others, while China National Pharmaceutical Group is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 3.4% during the week of May 26-30, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 20.3 percentage points year-to-date [4][39]. - The report highlights significant gains in the pharmaceutical sector, driven by the suspension of President Trump's tariff policy and the release of the 2025 ASCO abstracts, which increased investor interest in innovative drugs [4][40]. - The report notes that the innovative drug sector remains manageable in terms of geopolitical risks despite ongoing monitoring of tariff impacts [40]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has increased by 36.4% year-to-date, with sub-sectors such as Pharmaceuticals (+8.5%) and CXO/Research Services (+5.6%) showing strong performance [4][39]. - The report indicates that the U.S. biopharma sector faced pressure due to drug pricing negotiations and trade policy uncertainties, leading to a cautious market sentiment [43]. Key Developments - The 2025 ASCO abstracts were released, showcasing promising data from companies like Innovent Biologics and Kelun Biotech, particularly in the ADC and bispecific antibody fields [11][12][18]. - Summit Therapeutics' HARMONi study reported that Ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy met the primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) in NSCLC patients, indicating a positive trend in overall survival (OS) [18][19]. - CSPC Pharmaceutical is negotiating three potential deals with a total value of up to approximately USD 5 billion, with one deal expected to close in June 2025 [22][40]. Company Highlights - Notable gainers in the Hong Kong healthcare sector included JOINN Laboratories (+24.4%) and Simcere Pharmaceutical (+24.2%), while underperformers included SSY Group (-2.7%) and Zai Lab (-4.2%) [41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring of regulatory approvals and market dynamics for companies involved in innovative drug development [19][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs and related sectors, recommending continuous attention to innovative drugs and biotech companies [6][25][26]. Core Insights - The significant $6 billion deal between 3SBio and Pfizer is expected to further stimulate the innovative drug market, indicating strong demand for Chinese innovative drug assets despite geopolitical tensions [26]. - In the third week of May 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with a 1.8% increase compared to a 0.6% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][27]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as chemical raw materials (+8.8%), chemical preparations (+5.1%), and biological products (+4.0%) [15][27]. Summary by Sections Continuous Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of innovative drugs and suggests monitoring companies that are likely to see a revaluation, including Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Huadong Medicine, and others [6][25]. - It also highlights biotech firms with growing pipelines and performance, such as Innovent Biologics and Sunshine Guojian Pharmaceutical [25]. Performance of A-Shares - The A-share pharmaceutical sector ranked first among Shenwan primary industries during the specified week, with notable individual stock performances, including Sunshine Guojian Pharmaceutical (+100.0%) and Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical (+51.6%) [9][17][27]. - The relative premium of the pharmaceutical sector compared to all A-shares is currently at a normal level, with a premium rate of 84.21% [17][24]. Performance of Hong Kong and U.S. Stocks - The report notes that the Hong Kong and U.S. pharmaceutical sectors outperformed their respective markets, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index rising by 5.5% and the S&P 500 Healthcare Select Sector declining by 2.1% [21][28]. - Top gainers in the Hong Kong market included 3SBio (+57%) and Clover Biopharmaceuticals (+36%) [21][28].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Growth in the Japanese consumer sector remains weak despite event-driven catalysts such as the Osaka Expo and the Golden Week holiday, with retail markets not showing expected significant growth [2][13] - External demand has shifted due to yen appreciation and changing trade environments, leading to a preference for everyday goods over luxury items among overseas tourists [2][13] - Domestic consumer sentiment is cautious, with a decline in the willingness to travel domestically during the Golden Week, reflecting a conservative household consumption attitude [2][13] Macroeconomic Overview - The core CPI in Japan rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, maintaining the same level as March, while the core CPI excluding fresh food increased by 3.5%, surpassing previous values and market expectations [9] - The consumer confidence index fell to 31.2 in April, marking the lowest level since February 2023, with a continuous decline for five months [7] - Real wages decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in March, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures on household purchasing power [7][9] Essential Consumption - Essential retail sales showed mixed results, with PPIH, 711, and Aeon reporting same-store sales growth of +6.3%, +1.8%, and +1.0% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [3][14] - Sales of daily consumer goods like beer saw a significant decline in April, highlighting consumer sensitivity to price changes [3][20] - Drugstore chains like Matsukiyo Cocokara and Welcia reported same-store sales growth of +3.9% and +2.5% respectively, indicating a positive trend in essential goods [3][18] Discretionary Consumption - Duty-free sales continued to decline for the second consecutive month, with a drop of 26.7% in April due to policy changes and a high base from the previous year [4][34] - Restaurant same-store sales showed varied performance, with notable growth in chains like Saizeriya and Skylark, while McDonald's experienced a decline in customer traffic [4][26] - Apparel sales were mixed, with ABC-MART and other brands showing positive growth, while Uniqlo faced a decline due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting summer product demand [4][29] Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index for retail, food and beverage, and service industries showed increases of +5.6%, +3.8%, and +1.4% respectively in April, while the textile and apparel sector declined by -7.4% [5] - Investment suggestions focus on companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Uni-President China Holdings with a target price of HK$12.10, representing a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of HK$10.36 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance growth and continuous improvement in profitability, with a net profit after tax of 602 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32%, exceeding market expectations [4][11]. - The beverage segment performed exceptionally well, with revenue growth driven by low raw material costs and improved production capacity utilization, leading to a gross profit margin increase of approximately 2 percentage points [4][12]. - The food segment also demonstrated stable performance, with instant noodle revenue achieving a high single-digit year-on-year increase, although the gross profit margin slightly declined due to palm oil cost pressures [5][13]. - The dividend yield remains attractive, with a projected yield of 5.2% based on a historical 100% dividend payout ratio, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 32.45 billion yuan, 34.19 billion yuan, and 36.00 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 5.4%, and 5.3% respectively [6][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.17 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [6][15]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 33.8% in 2025 to 34.4% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][6][17] Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 46.3% in Q1 2025, reaching Rmb525 million, with gross profit rising by 57.5% to Rmb219 million, surpassing expectations [3][15] - The gross profit margin stood at 41.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.97 percentage points, indicating strong profitability [3][15] - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue between Rmb680 million and Rmb720 million, with expected deliveries exceeding 300,000 units and a gross profit margin around 40% [3][15] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb3.245 billion, Rmb4.795 billion, and Rmb6.851 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be Rmb241 million, Rmb552 million, and Rmb1.041 billion [6][17] - The company achieved a net profit margin of -3.3% in Q1 2025, a significant improvement from previous periods, and is expected to reach breakeven under GAAP in Q2 2025 [3][15] - The report highlights a strong growth trajectory with a forecasted revenue growth rate of 56% for 2025 and 48% for 2026 [11][13] Market and Product Developments - The company has ramped up production of ADAS LiDAR, with Q1 2025 shipments reaching 195,800 units, a 178% increase year-on-year [4][16] - The introduction of the ATX low-cost product has positively impacted margins, with a focus on maintaining quality while optimizing cost structures [4][16] - The company has secured exclusive partnerships with top OEMs in Europe and Japan, indicating strong international market penetration [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company discussed Core Insights - Xiaomi's 15th Anniversary Event showcased the launch of self-developed chips, flagship smartphone, high-end tablet, and first SUV, marking a full implementation of its "Human-Car-Home" ecosystem strategy [1][6] - The XRing O1 chip represents a significant technological breakthrough, making Xiaomi the fourth global company to develop a 3nm SoC, which integrates 19 billion transistors and outperforms Apple's A18 Pro in multi-core performance by 5% while reducing power consumption by 35% [2][7] - Xiaomi's strategy combines self-research and strategic cooperation with Qualcomm, maintaining a balance between self-reliance and partnership to ensure market stability while pushing for high-end product development [3][8] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 22, 2025, Xiaomi launched its self-developed chips (XRing O1 and T1), flagship smartphone (Xiaomi 15S Pro), high-end tablet (Pad 7 Ultra), and first SUV (YU7) [1][6] Technological Breakthrough - The XRing O1 chip, built on TSMC's 2nd-gen 3nm process, features a 10-core CPU and a 16-core GPU, significantly enhancing performance and reducing costs associated with high-end chip procurement [2][7] Strategic Positioning - Xiaomi's dual strategy of self-research and collaboration with Qualcomm allows it to enhance its high-end product offerings while ensuring a stable supply of Snapdragon chips for flagship models [3][8] Product Portfolio - The Xiaomi 15S Pro is priced from RMB 5,499, targeting the iPhone market with advanced features such as a 2K display and Leica cameras [5][11] - The Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, starting at RMB 5,699, aims to compete with the iPad Pro in the productivity segment [5][11] - The YU7 SUV, with a range of 835 km and L3 autonomy, targets the premium EV market while facing competition from Tesla and Huawei [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Chow Tai Seng, but it emphasizes a focus on transformation and stabilization for the main brand by 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the company's strategic direction [2][3]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Seng is focusing on a four major brands matrix to build a complete system that covers different consumption levels through product upgrades and brand differentiation [2][9]. - The main brand is undergoing a transformation towards a retail-oriented business model, with a priority on the One-Pool Inventory strategy to enhance product structure and profitability [2][3]. - The company aims to create a core model store with annual sales exceeding 100 million RMB through high-end positioning and product quality improvements under the Chow Tai Seng x National Treasure brand [4][11]. - The organizational structure is being optimized to strengthen talent reserves and incentive mechanisms to support the company's transformation [12]. Summary by Sections Brand Strategy - Chow Tai Seng is focusing on four major brands: Chow Tai Seng Consolidated (main brand), Chow Tai Seng x National Treasure, Chow Tai Seng Classic, and Turning Pearl Pavilion, each targeting different consumer segments and emphasizing product differentiation [2][9]. - The main brand is set to enhance its product offerings and shift towards a retail model, while the National Treasure brand aims for high-end positioning with unique product craftsmanship [4][11]. Inventory and Marketing - The One-Pool Inventory strategy is being deepened, with graded management of franchisees and a focus on creating explosive products through enhanced marketing efforts [3][10]. - The company is investing in both online and offline marketing to strengthen brand awareness and drive sales [10]. Organizational Development - The company is optimizing its organizational structure to clarify corporate values and strategic systems, aiming for a win-win situation for all stakeholders [12]. - A focus on leadership development and talent management is being emphasized to support the company's strategic goals [12].