数通交换机翻倍以上增长，毛利率维稳、业绩高增 公司 2024 年报&2025Q1 业绩点评 本报告导读： 2024 年以来受益国内 AI 发展，公司数据中心交换机全面爆发、收入增速超预期，取 得 200G/400G 数据中心交换机、数据中心交换机互联网行业市场份额第一 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,542 | 11,699 | 13,837 | 16,095 | 18,136 | | (+/-)% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 12.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 401 | 574 | 771 | 1,012 | 1,200 | | (+/-)% | -27.3% | 43.1% | 34.3% | 31.2% | 18.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.71 | 1.01 | 1.36 | 1.78 | 2.11 | | 净资产收益率(%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture between the company's subsidiary and Luxshare Precision aims to enhance the company's 3D printing strategy and boost its laser business performance. This partnership is expected to leverage strong expertise in Selective Laser Melting (SLM) technology, which is widely used in metal additive manufacturing [6][11]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 1.67 billion RMB, 2.01 billion RMB, and 2.42 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 RMB, 1.99 RMB, and 2.41 RMB [6][11]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 49.95 RMB, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous target price of 48.70 RMB, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2025 [6][11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 10.31 billion RMB in 2023 to 20.12 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.01 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.42 billion RMB in 2027, representing a CAGR of around 20.7% [4][7]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.00 RMB in 2023 to 2.41 RMB in 2027 [4][7]. Joint Venture Details - The joint venture, named Suzhou Lihua Technology Co., Ltd., will have a registered capital of 200 million RMB, with the company's subsidiary contributing 140 million RMB (70%) and Luxshare contributing 60 million RMB (30%) [6][11]. - This partnership is expected to focus on the deep application of SLM manufacturing technology across various industries, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the 3D printing market [6][11]. Market Context - The report highlights a rapid growth in demand for 3D printing, particularly from major clients like Apple, which serves as a catalyst for the company's growth in this sector [3][11]. - The company's strong foundation in SLM technology positions it well to capitalize on the increasing applications of 3D printing in sectors such as electronics, aerospace, and medical implants [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 5.20, based on a projected EPS of RMB 0.26 for 2025 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices and impairment losses, but the sale of hydropower assets is expected to improve earnings [4][11]. - The company is a leader in green energy, with a solid project pipeline supporting future growth [4][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 29.72 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.1%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 14.8% to RMB 6.11 billion due to a significant impairment charge [2][11]. - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of approximately RMB 7.52 billion, reflecting a recovery from the previous year [4][11]. - The company has a robust project reserve, with 16.44 GW of capacity under construction as of the end of 2024, including 4.87 GW of wind power and 7.45 GW of solar power [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in offshore wind power and has a diversified project portfolio across various renewable energy sectors [8][11]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on scale and efficiency, aiming to establish itself as a world-class renewable energy company [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for Nextracker, categorizing it as a high-quality tracking stock in the solar energy sector and a key recommendation among global renewable energy stocks covered by Haitong International [1]. Core Insights - Nextracker's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 significantly exceeded market expectations, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for fiscal year 2026 also surpassing consensus estimates. The company reported a backlog of over $4.5 billion, indicating strong solar demand and stable pricing [1][2]. - The company expects fiscal year 2026 revenue to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, with EBITDA projected at $700 million to $775 million, and net income estimated at $445 million to $503 million. Most of the revenue is anticipated to be realized in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with a reaffirmed gross margin in the low 30% range [2][3]. - Nextracker's fourth quarter revenue reached $924 million, significantly above the consensus estimate of $831 million, with a gross margin maintained at 33.4%. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $193 million, exceeding market expectations [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Nextracker reported net revenue of $924 million, a 36% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 25% year-over-year increase. The adjusted EBITDA was $242 million, reflecting a 30% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 33.4% and an adjusted net income of $193 million, which included $75 million from tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act [2][5]. Order Backlog and Market Position - Nextracker's backlog reached over $4.5 billion by the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, indicating a strong demand for solar solutions. The order-to-shipment ratio remains above 1, showcasing robust market activity [3]. Supply Chain and Strategic Moves - The company expressed confidence in its supply chain, emphasizing the use of 100% domestically sourced steel for its U.S. manufactured components. Nextracker is the first solar company to achieve 100% localization of components in the U.S., which enhances customer confidence and allows for moderate pricing premiums [3]. - Nextracker announced the acquisition of US Bentek Corporation for approximately $78 million in cash, aimed at integrating procurement and project logistics [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Shandong Cynda Chemical Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 20 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224%. The operating income reached 543 million yuan, up 10.78% year-on-year, with total profit at 24 million yuan, a 296.51% increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22 million yuan, reflecting a 257.63% increase. The growth was driven by increased sales volume and prices of major products [2][3]. - The market for clethodim remains tight, with prices continuing to rise. The mainstream transaction reference price for clethodim was 130,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan per ton (up 8.33%) from the previous week. Low market inventory and strong demand are contributing to this price increase [4]. - The company has made significant progress in original drug R&D, establishing a product matrix centered on quinclorac, pyrazoxyfen, and Feproxydim. The first product, quinclorac, has been widely applied, while the second product, pyrazoxyfen, is set to launch in 2025. The third product, Feproxydim, is currently under review [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported: - Operating income: 543 million yuan, up 10.78% year-on-year - Total profit: 24 million yuan, up 296.51% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to parent company: 22 million yuan, up 257.63% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit: 20 million yuan, up 224% year-on-year - Gross profit margin: 17.78%, up 4.97 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin: 3.92%, up 6.73 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The supply-demand situation for clethodim remains tight, with strong demand and low inventory levels. Most enterprises can schedule orders until July. The price of clethodim has increased significantly due to this tight market condition [4]. R&D Developments - The company has established a core matrix of innovative products, with successful registrations and applications of its herbicides. The first product, quinclorac, has been applied in over 2 million mu of fields, while the second product, pyrazoxyfen, is expected to launch in 2025. The third product is under review, and additional herbicides are set to begin registration processes in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are estimated at RMB 14.44 billion, RMB 15.28 billion, and RMB 16.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 310 million, RMB 750 million, and RMB 1.1 billion for the same years [6][15] - The company’s gross margin for raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at RMB 3.07 per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [3][15]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a record-high gross margin of 14.9% in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching RMB 10.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 187.1% driven by a 162% increase in vehicle deliveries and improved product mix [4][12]. - The company significantly narrowed its net loss to RMB 130 million, outperforming market expectations due to margin expansion outpacing operating expense growth [12][15]. - Leapmotor's domestic deliveries soared to 87,552 units in Q1 2025, up 162.1% year-on-year, while overseas sales also accelerated with 7,546 units exported in Q1 [5][13]. - The new C10 model features significant upgrades in range, intelligence, and driving dynamics, establishing a closed-loop business model that enhances cost control and market competitiveness [6][14]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 67.6 billion, RMB 81.2 billion, and RMB 102.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach RMB 0.6 billion, RMB 3.5 billion, and RMB 6.0 billion in the same years [7][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 32.16 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 67.60 billion in 2025, representing a growth rate of 110% [10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2025, with net profit projected to turn positive in 2025 [10][15]. - The company maintains a strong cash position with RMB 25.7 billion in cash as of March 31, 2025, supporting its growth initiatives [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang, with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 30.1% across the forecast period [5]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x PS, indicating attractive acquisition opportunities [4][13]. - An AI initiative to launch digital twins of renowned TCM doctors is expected to contribute RMB 30 million in annual performance starting in July 2025 [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025 are anticipated to generate over RMB 50 million in revenue [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 7.95 billion (approximately USD 1.02 billion) and a free float of 62% [2].

Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the F&B and designer toys sectors, including the successful IPO of Green Tea Group and strategic investments by Wanda Film and China Ruyi in 52TOYS [2][6]. - Honey Snow Ice City has signed a procurement agreement worth 4 billion RMB with Brazil for coffee beans and other products, indicating a strong international expansion strategy [2]. - Ruixing Coffee plans to establish over 30 Brazilian coffee-themed stores, further enhancing its market presence [2]. - Starbucks has launched a new ready-to-drink tea and coffee series, tapping into the growing beverage market [2]. Weekly Performance Summary - In the F&B sector, notable performers include Guoquan (+22.2%), DPC Dash (+4.7%), and Tongqinglou (+2.3%), while underperformers include CAHGEE and HELENS, both down by 7.7% [3][7]. - In the designer toys sector, MINISO and BLOKS showed strong performance with increases of 12.1% and 11.9% respectively, while Pop Mart had a modest increase of 2.4% [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, particularly focusing on high-performance structural component manufacturers and aerospace parts specialists [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditure in data centers due to tariff pressures and uncertainties, with Meta raising its AI data center capex forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion for 2025 [2][18]. - The U.S. defense spending is projected to grow, with a significant arms sales agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia valued at $142 billion, indicating a robust defense market [3][37]. - The industrial robotics sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with global installations projected to remain around 541,302 units in 2024 [39][45]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Meta's capital expenditure for AI data centers is expected to rise due to adjustments in construction strategies and increased hardware costs from suppliers [2][18]. Energy Construction - The U.S. government is implementing a pilot program for virtual power plants in Virginia, which could save $3.25 billion annually for the western states [4][23]. - GE Vernova announced a $14.2 billion energy agreement to support Saudi Arabia's power generation and grid stability [4][71]. Aerospace - The aerospace industry is witnessing a recovery, with a focus on advanced materials technology and partnerships with major manufacturers [5][26]. - The price index for aircraft engines and components has shown stability, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][28]. Defense - The U.S. defense price index for government spending was stable in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [3][38]. - The arms sales agreement with Saudi Arabia includes advanced weapon systems and reflects the U.S.'s commitment to enhancing Saudi military capabilities [37]. Robotics - The industrial robotics market is expected to see continued growth, with a projected installation of 541,302 units in 2024, despite a slight decline in 2023 [39][45]. - The automotive sector remains the largest customer for industrial robots, accounting for 25% of installations [39]. Industrial Equipment - The gas turbine price index has increased by 7.24% year-on-year, driven by supply-demand dynamics [49][51]. - The price index for electric transformers has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase [56][58].