[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 11 Mar 2025 光华股份 GUANGHUA TECHNOLOGY (001333 CH) 国内粉末涂料用聚酯树脂领先企业，持续扩产强化竞争优势 Leader in Polyester Resins for Powder Coatings, Expanding Capacities to Strengthen the Competitive Advantages 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 10 Mar 2025 MP 材料 MP Materials (MP US) 营收承压，磁材突围 Revenue Under Pressure, Magnetic Materials Breakthrough 吴旖婕 Yijie Wu 王曼琪 Manqi Wang lisa.yj.wu@htisec.com mq.wang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_summary] 2024 年公司实现全年营收 2.04 亿美元，同比下降 20%，调整后的 EBITDA 为-5020 万美元，较去年下降 1.53 亿美元， 调整后净亏损-7410 万美元。 第四季度收入增长亮眼，但全年业绩承压，成本攀升导致亏损扩大 ：MP Materials Q4 营收同比+48%至 6100 万美元， 主因镨钕氧化物及镨钕金属销量跃升，但全年营收下滑 20%至 2.04 亿美元，因稀土价格疲软（REO 均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of HKD 56.73, indicating an expected upside from the current price of HKD 27.90 [2][9][20]. Core Insights - Zai Lab's Efgartigimod sales exceeded expectations, generating USD 93.6 million in FY24, significantly higher than the previous year's USD 10 million, driven by its inclusion in the National Reimbursement Drug List for generalized myasthenia gravis [3][17]. - The management projects FY25 revenue between USD 560 million and USD 590 million, with a potential for non-GAAP operating profitability by Q4 2025 [4][16][20]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40% in revenue from FY24 to FY28, supported by multiple potential blockbuster products nearing commercialization [5][18]. Financial Performance - For FY24, Zai Lab reported a net revenue of USD 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with a gross profit margin of 63.1% [3][16]. - R&D expenses were USD 235 million, down 11.8% year-on-year, while SG&A expenses increased by 6.1% to USD 299 million [3][16]. - The net loss for FY24 was USD 257 million, an improvement from the previous year's loss of USD 335 million [3][16]. Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - Efgartigimod is expected to continue its growth trajectory, potentially exceeding USD 150 million in revenue in FY25 due to its exclusivity advantage and expanding patient base [4][17]. - Zai Lab has several products in the pipeline, including KarXT for schizophrenia, which is projected to have peak sales of USD 1 billion, and Bemarituzumab for gastric cancer, with Phase III data expected in 1H25 [5][18]. - ZL-1310 has received orphan drug designation from the FDA for small cell lung cancer and is expected to accelerate overseas licensing opportunities [6][19]. Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to USD 561 million and USD 775 million, respectively, reflecting a growth of 41% and 38% year-on-year [9][20]. - The net profit forecast for FY25 and FY26 has been fine-tuned to USD -140 million and USD 10 million, respectively, indicating a path towards profitability by FY26 [9][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health International with a target price of HK$42.90, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HK$35.75 [2][9]. Core Insights - JD Health's revenue for 2024 slightly exceeded market expectations, achieving RMB 58.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 4.8 billion, surpassing expectations by 15.9% due to scale effects, resulting in a net profit margin of 8.2% [3][19]. - The company experienced strong growth across all major product categories in Q4 2024, with revenue of RMB 16.5 billion, marking an 11.3% increase. This performance indicates a recovery and growth trajectory post-pandemic [20][21]. - The number of merchants on the platform has significantly increased, contributing to a robust ecosystem characterized by comprehensive products, low prices, and high quality. The number of merchants grew from over 20,000 in 2022 to over 100,000 in 2024 [21][22]. - JD Health is expanding its offline pharmacy presence, with nearly 60 self-operated O2O stores opened in Beijing by the end of 2024, enhancing its market reach and operational capabilities [22]. - The company is optimistic about the integration of AI in healthcare, with a growing active user base of 180 million and daily online consultations exceeding 490,000. This positions JD Health favorably in the evolving internet healthcare landscape [23][24]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are set at RMB 66.6 billion and RMB 75.7 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 13.7% [25][26]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be RMB 4.4 billion and RMB 5.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -7.3% and 20.5% [25][26]. - The report highlights a DCF valuation predicting the company's equity value at HK$136.8 billion, corresponding to a share price of HK$42.90, with a WACC of 9.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [26].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 12.3 per share [2][21][28] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid expansion of the intelligent driving industry, the increasing market share of domestic intelligent driving chips, and the launch of the SuperDrive product to enter the high-end market [21][28] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are Rmb 2.198 billion, 3.430 billion, and 5.815 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 56%, and 70% respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% [21][28] - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2027 as revenue scales up and expense growth slows [21][28] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics, founded in 2015, is a leading provider of intelligent driving solutions, focusing on Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving (AD) [5][28] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers, including BYD, Li Auto, Volkswagen, and Bosch [28] - As of 2024, the cumulative shipments of the Journey series chips have exceeded 7 million, with a market share of 35.9% in advanced assisted driving solutions in China [28] Product Development - The SuperDrive, based on the J6P chip with a computing power of 560 TOPS, is expected to enter mass production in Q3 2025, enhancing the company's high-end product portfolio [21][28] - The introduction of SuperDrive is anticipated to solidify the company's leading position in the smart driving chip market and improve gross profit margins to approximately 50% [21][28] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are Rmb 2.198 billion, 3.430 billion, and 5.815 billion, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [18][21] - The company is projected to achieve a gross profit margin of 71% in 2024, decreasing to 61% by 2026 [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industrial and energy sectors, particularly focusing on data centers, infrastructure, and aerospace industries. Core Insights - The global aviation industry is expected to exceed $1 trillion in revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by recovery in demand and increased defense spending [1][36]. - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI data centers, with Amazon planning to spend over $100 billion, Microsoft $80 billion, Alphabet $75 billion, and Meta $60-65 billion [1][20]. - The report highlights a strong demand for gas turbines, driven by the growth of AI data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 18% for gas turbine demand in the U.S. data center sector from 2023 to 2030 [61]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - The U.S. data center market is projected to reach $14.35 billion in 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 8.36% to $21.43 billion by 2030 [19]. - Major tech firms are ramping up investments in AI infrastructure, with Meta planning to invest approximately $200 billion [20][23]. - The demand for advanced cooling technologies, such as liquid cooling, is increasing as companies seek to optimize efficiency [23]. Energy Infrastructure - The average annual investment in the U.S. power grid is expected to be $44 billion from 2023 to 2030, with significant investments in distribution networks [26]. - PJM Interconnection has approved a $6.7 billion transmission expansion plan to enhance grid reliability [27]. - The European Union plans to invest €584 billion in grid upgrades from 2020 to 2030 to accommodate renewable energy integration [30]. Aerospace - The aerospace industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with global revenues expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2025, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [36]. - SpaceX announced an $1.8 billion investment to expand its Starship project, indicating strong growth in the commercial space sector [36]. - The report notes that the production of narrow-body aircraft is expected to reach 2,400 units by 2025, with a steady annual growth rate of 2.8% [36]. Industrial Equipment - The report indicates a significant increase in capital expenditures in the aerospace sector, with Boeing forecasting a demand for approximately 42,000 commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at around $8.7 trillion [42]. - The price index for gas turbines has shown a year-on-year increase of 4.71%, reflecting tight supply-demand dynamics [56]. - The price index for electric and specialty transformers has also shown stability, with a slight increase in January 2025 [63][66].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Insights - BeiGene is positioned as a leading biopharma company in China, focusing on innovative drug development and global commercialization, with a strong pipeline and significant growth potential [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by the strong performance of its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, and the PD-1 inhibitor, Tislelizumab [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has established a robust global presence with over 60 clinical projects and 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, which have been launched in multiple regions [3][11]. - The company aims to become the first biopharma in China to achieve recurring profitability by 2025, supported by its innovative product pipeline and global commercialization capabilities [11][20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors, BCL-2 inhibitors, and BTK CDAC is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5][27]. - Zanubrutinib is projected to double its revenue to $2.6 billion in 2024, further strengthening its market position in the U.S. hematology market [4][20]. 3. Pipeline Development - BeiGene's pipeline focuses on hematological and solid tumors, with several molecules showing best-in-class potential, including Sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 [27]. - The company has a rich pipeline with over 10 early-stage projects expected to report proof-of-concept data in 2025, enhancing its growth prospects [6][27]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are $5 billion, $6 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].

Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, unchanged since 2023, to guide expectations and maintain stable economic growth[7] - The CPI target for 2025 is adjusted to around 2%, marking the first reduction from the long-standing 3% since 2015[7] - The employment target remains steady with an aim to create over 12 million urban jobs and maintain an urban unemployment rate of around 5.5%[8] Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit rate is raised to 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[16] - Special bonds issuance is expanded to 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan compared to last year, focusing on infrastructure and real estate[16] - Total new government debt is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[16] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, with potential for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates[19] - The government emphasizes maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations[18] Supply-Side Adjustments - The report highlights the need to address "involution" in competition, promoting healthy development in new industries like electric vehicles and solar products[26] - Energy consumption per unit of GDP is targeted to decrease by around 3% in 2025, continuing the push for energy efficiency and carbon reduction[26] Key Tasks - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment efficiency[21] - The report introduces ten key tasks, with "expanding domestic demand" moving to the top priority[21] - Significant reforms are expected to accelerate, particularly in ecological areas, with clearer goals for carbon reduction and pollution control[21]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Views - BeiGene is positioned as a leading innovator in China's biopharmaceutical sector, with a strong focus on oncology treatments and a robust pipeline of over 60 clinical projects globally [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by significant revenue growth from its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, which is projected to double its revenue in 2024 [4][20]. - BeiGene's global commercialization capabilities and a well-established management team are key competitive advantages that will support its growth trajectory [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has a diverse product pipeline and aims to become the first biopharma company to achieve consistent profitability [11]. - The company has 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, with strong sales performance in the US and Europe [20]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $3.81 billion, a 55% increase year-over-year, with significant contributions from the US market [20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors and BCL-2 inhibitors is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5]. - Zanubrutinib has shown superior efficacy compared to Ibrutinib, establishing its best-in-class status [5][24]. - The company is also developing Sonratoclax, a BCL-2 inhibitor, which is anticipated to enhance its market position [5]. 3. Expansion in Solid Tumors - BeiGene is actively expanding its presence in solid tumors, with Tislelizumab gaining traction in various indications [11]. - The company is developing next-generation CDK inhibitors targeting a market exceeding $10 billion [11]. - Focus areas include lung cancer and breast cancer, with ongoing clinical trials for multiple candidates [11]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are $5 billion, $6 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by FY25, reaching $390 million by FY26 [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for Innovent Biologics, with a target price of 60.2 HKD per share [6]. Core Viewpoints - Innovent Biologics is entering a rapid commercialization phase, with a strong pipeline of products expected to drive growth in the coming years. The company achieved revenue of 6.21 billion CNY in 2023, with product revenue of 5.73 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [3][31]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 13 commercialized products and several in late-stage clinical trials, including IBI311 (IGF-1R) and others, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth by 2025 [3][4]. - Innovent's focus on oncology and chronic diseases, along with its strong research and development capabilities, positions it well for sustainable growth in the biopharmaceutical sector [3][5]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Market Concerns - The impact of biosimilar drug procurement on revenue is manageable, with projections indicating stable sales for key products like Bevacizumab and Rituximab [9][13]. - The commercial potential of Ma Shidu peptide (GLP-1/GCGR) is significant, given the large patient base for diabetes and obesity in China, with a low current penetration rate of GLP-1RA therapies [16][17]. Part 2: Company Development - Innovent Biologics aims to become a leading comprehensive biopharma in China, leveraging its strong product portfolio and international innovation strategies [20][24]. Part 3: Growth Areas - The oncology segment shows steady growth with a strong commercialization performance, while non-oncology areas like cardiovascular metabolism (CVM) and ophthalmology are expected to contribute to a second growth curve [5][31]. - The company has established a solid commercial team for CVM, with IBI306 (PCSK9) approved in 2023, and is preparing for the launch of Ma Shidu peptide [5][31]. Part 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are projected at 10.59 billion CNY, 12.52 billion CNY, and 16.73 billion CNY, respectively, with expected EBITDA turning positive by 2025 [6][31].