2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 股票研究 /Table_Date] 2025.05.12 2025-05-13 首次覆盖：Q1 来水不佳，湖北现货即将转正 湖北能源000883 [Table_Industry] 电力/公用事业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 5.61 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 4.66 [Table_Market] 交易数据 总市值（百万元） 30,292 总股本流通A 股（百万股） 6,500/6,480 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司 24 年和 25Q1 业绩分别受到减值和来水不佳影响，湖北现货市场推进，看好公 司电源长期价值释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 20,045 | 21,655 | 21,980 | | (+/)% | 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of RMB 8.55 based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 9.27 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year (YOY), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 250 million, down 42.3% YOY due to increased credit loss provisions [4][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.21 billion, a decline of 3.1% YOY, but a net profit of RMB 180 million, reflecting a 22.8% increase YOY [4][9]. - Anticipated cost improvements in 2025 include a slight reduction in electricity prices and a potential decrease in coal prices, which could enhance profitability [4][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2025-2027 include: - Revenue: RMB 9.57 billion in 2025, RMB 10.05 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.55 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.2%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 618 million in 2025, RMB 706 million in 2026, and RMB 831 million in 2027, with growth rates of 148.7%, 14.3%, and 17.6% respectively [3][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS): projected at RMB 0.45 for 2025, RMB 0.51 for 2026, and RMB 0.60 for 2027 [4][9]. Operational Developments - By the end of 2024, the company had an operational capacity of 4.06 million kW, with plans to add 1.3 million kW in 2025 [4][9]. - The company completed a power supply of 21.23 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 1.42 billion kWh YOY, attributed to enhanced cooperation with the Seventh Division grid [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.62 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.65 billion, up 31.72% year-on-year [9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.27% [9]. - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to tariff adjustments and increased overseas warehouse shipments affecting delivery timelines [9]. - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of RMB 2.90 billion, RMB 3.24 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.30, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.83 [9]. - The target price is set at RMB 45.91, based on a 20x PE for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% from previous estimates [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.62 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.72 billion by 2027, with annual growth rates of 29.3%, 11.7%, 11.3%, and 10.5% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2.65 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.58 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 31.7%, 9.6%, 11.6%, and 10.4% respectively [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 29.6% in 2024 to 36.2% in 2027 [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from desktop communication terminals reached RMB 3.08 billion, up 21.13% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 67.55% [9]. - Conference products generated RMB 1.99 billion in revenue, a 36.21% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 65.67% [9]. - Cloud office terminals saw revenue growth of 62.98%, totaling RMB 0.53 billion [9]. - The contribution of second and third growth curves to total revenue increased from 41.15% to 44.89% [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company distributed total cash dividends of approximately RMB 2.40 billion in 2024, with a payout ratio of 90.59% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced configuration attractiveness, supported by strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund investments [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance across economic cycles, with a stable growth trajectory and high dividend payouts, reinforcing shareholder returns [5][15][16] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow from Rmb 174.144 billion and Rmb 89.335 billion in 2024 to Rmb 228.087 billion and Rmb 120.373 billion by 2027, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [5][11][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain above 91%, with a net profit margin around 50% and return on equity (ROE) around 30% [5][11][15] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to Rmb 76, Rmb 84, and Rmb 93, respectively, with a target price set at Rmb 1,972 [6][16] Market Position and Valuation - Kweichow Moutai's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22, significantly lower than its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][16] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, providing a solid return cushion for investors [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 13.80, based on a projected 15x PE for 2025 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 585 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 148.10%. The net profit after non-recurring items grew by 167.68% to RMB 511 million [1][9]. - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 5.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.37%. In Q4 2024, revenue surged to RMB 1.39 billion, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 182.01% and a year-on-year increase of 31.44% [1][9]. - Fresh product sales volume increased by 99.17% year-on-year, reaching 49,206.57 tons [1][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of RMB 926 million, RMB 1.31 billion, and RMB 1.60 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.92, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.59 [3][9]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling approximately RMB 352 million for 2024, with a payout ratio of 60.18% [1][9]. - The company has a net asset return rate projected to increase from 15.3% in 2024 to 28.4% by 2027 [3][9]. Yield and Land Resources - The company’s yield per acre is expected to grow from 1.3 tons/acre in the 2023/2024 season to over 1.4 tons/acre in the 2024/2025 season, driven by tree age and improved agricultural techniques [10]. - The company has transferred approximately 56,000 acres of land, with an expected production area of 35,000-40,000 acres by the 2025/2026 season [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HK$102.80, representing a potential upside of 9.4% from the current price of HK$94.05 [2][8]. Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to gain market share through product upgrades and channel innovations, with brand sell-through exceeding RMB 40 billion in FY24, achieving high single-digit growth [3][13]. - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand matrix, further solidifying its position in the high-end outdoor market [5][15]. - The FILA brand is experiencing growth due to a new CEO and an expanded product range, with sales expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth in 2025 and accelerate in subsequent years [4][16]. Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue exceeded RMB 40 billion in 2024, driven by successful product upgrades and channel innovations, with a focus on high-end and mass-market positioning [3][13]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the Anta Junior Series and various running shoe models, has contributed to significant sales growth [3][13]. FILA Brand Developments - FILA's revenue surpassed RMB 30 billion in 2024, with a strong online presence accounting for approximately 40% of sales [4][14]. - The brand's management transition is expected to support sustainable growth, with a focus on product positioning and brand development [4][14]. Other Brands and Acquisitions - Other brands under Anta, including DESCENTE and Kolon, reported significant revenue growth, with DESCENTE establishing a strong position in the high-end golf market [5][15]. - The planned acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million is anticipated to enhance Anta's outdoor product offerings and market presence [7][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Anta Sports are projected at RMB 78.97 billion for 2025, with a low double-digit growth rate expected through 2027 [8][16]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 13.39 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of -14.1% due to one-off impacts in 2024 [8][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [9][10]. Core Views - Increased competition has led to a decline in product prices and gross profit margins, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in net profit. The company is increasing R&D investments to strengthen its market competitiveness [10][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 620 million RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million RMB, down 42.47% year-on-year [10][11]. - The focus on electronic semiconductor specialty gases is progressing, with significant import substitution achieved for several products, and the company has added 21 semiconductor clients in 2024 [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 2,427 million RMB (2023A), 2,525 million RMB (2024A), 3,216 million RMB (2025E), 3,753 million RMB (2026E), and 4,419 million RMB (2027E), with a growth rate peaking at 27.4% in 2025E [3][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from 315 million RMB in 2023A to 266 million RMB in 2025E, before recovering to 445 million RMB by 2027E [3][5]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 0.55 RMB (2025E), 0.73 RMB (2026E), and 0.92 RMB (2027E) [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its presence in the electronic semiconductor field, focusing on specialty gases and achieving domestic substitution for key products [11]. - The company has secured multiple projects in bulk carrier gases and on-site gas operations, indicating a steady operational performance [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit in Q1 2025, driven by product innovation and structural optimization, enhancing profitability [4][5] - The gold jewelry business has experienced steady revenue and profit growth, with franchising being the main engine for revenue increase [2][9] - The company is actively responding to fluctuations in gold prices through product innovation and cost control measures [5][12] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 6.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.19 billion RMB, down 41.9% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment from the "FION" bags business [2][9] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.25 billion RMB, a 25.4% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 189 million RMB, up 44.4% year-on-year [4][11] Product Segmentation - The company's gold jewelry products are categorized into traditional gold products and fashion jewelry, with traditional gold products' revenue share increasing from 38.4% in 2023 to 45.3% in 2024, showing a revenue growth rate of 30.2% [3][10] - Fashion jewelry products saw a decrease in revenue share from 50.7% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2024, with a slight decline in revenue [3][10] Distribution and Sales Channels - The company’s retail network expanded to 1,505 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 129 stores, reflecting a shift towards a more asset-light and efficient channel model [6][13] - The revenue from franchised agency increased by 32.4% year-on-year, indicating its role as the main source of revenue growth [2][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional connections with consumers to meet diverse needs across different age groups [5][12] - Plans for further expansion include opening approximately 150 new stores in mainland China in 2025 and continuing to target Southeast Asia for international growth [6][13] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend distribution strategy, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.5 RMB per 10 shares for 2025, reflecting a cumulative dividend ratio of 160.59% [6][14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that technology giants may increase capital expenditures for data centers due to tariff pressures and uncertainties [2]. - The U.S. plans to modernize its national air traffic control system, which may benefit companies involved in aerospace and defense [22]. - The report notes a steady increase in the demand for industrial robots, particularly in the automotive sector, despite a slight decline in overall installations [35]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showed strong upward momentum, followed by some profit-taking, indicating a mixed market sentiment [9][10]. Infrastructure - The New England Independent System Operator expects an 11% increase in annual electricity consumption due to the electrification of heating systems and the adoption of electric vehicles [20]. - PJM is accelerating the construction of 11.8 GW of power projects to enhance electricity supply [20]. Energy - U.S. natural gas spot prices have adjusted, while futures prices are trending upward, with overall consumption remaining stable [5]. - International oil prices have decreased, and commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories have declined [5]. Aerospace - The U.S. aircraft engine and parts manufacturing price index remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][24]. - Global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.3% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [30]. Defense - NATO continues to strengthen its eastern flank defense capabilities, with significant military exercises planned in Estonia and Lithuania [33]. - The U.S. government approved a potential sale of AIM-9X Block II tactical missiles to Norway, supporting NATO allies [33]. Robotics - The report highlights that 541,302 industrial robots were installed in 2023, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [35]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a minor increase of 0.2% month-on-month [39]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Howmet Aerospace, Loar Holdings, and Safran are recommended for their potential benefits from the recovery in aerospace and defense spending [6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like WMB and KMI, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas infrastructure [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Views - The company is facing price pressure on some products, leading to a revision of the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.81, 1.98, and 2.19 RMB respectively. The target price is adjusted to 24.43 RMB based on a 13.5x PE for 2025 [9][11] - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, down 2.59% year-on-year and 14.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million RMB, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price declines [9][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 27,260 million RMB - 2024A: 34,226 million RMB - 2025E: 34,290 million RMB - 2026E: 35,863 million RMB - 2027E: 37,027 million RMB - The year-on-year growth rates are -9.9%, 25.6%, 0.2%, 4.6%, and 3.2% respectively [3][7] - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 3,576 million RMB - 2024A: 3,903 million RMB - 2025E: 3,843 million RMB - 2026E: 4,208 million RMB - 2027E: 4,653 million RMB - The year-on-year growth rates are -43.1%, 9.1%, -1.5%, 9.5%, and 10.6% respectively [3][7] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 2.59 million tons of products, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. Sales performance varied across segments, with fertilizers up 36.74% year-on-year, while organic amines and acetic acid derivatives saw declines [10][11] - Price declines were noted in several product categories due to supply expansion, with revenue per ton changing year-on-year as follows: fertilizers -23.19%, organic amines -8.43%, acetic acid derivatives -9.08%, and new energy materials -19.57% [10][11] Expansion and Cost Management - The company is focusing on enhancing efficiency and market expansion despite price pressures. Ongoing projects include melamine resin and nylon 66, with future projects like a 200,000 tons/year dibasic acid project and BDO/NMP integration on schedule [11]