24 年减值影响业绩，25 年期待成本下行 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 9,508 | 9,271 | 9,571 | 10,050 | 10,552 | | (+/-)% | 16.8% | -2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 431 | 248 | 618 | 706 | 831 | | (+/-)% | 316.9% | -42.3% | 148.7% | 14.3% | 17.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.60 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 5.8% | 3.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄） | 22.20 | 38.50 | 15.48 | 13.54 | 11.51 | 股 票 研 究 证 券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.62 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.65 billion, up 31.72% year-on-year [9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.27% [9]. - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to tariff adjustments and increased overseas warehouse shipments affecting delivery timelines [9]. - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of RMB 2.90 billion, RMB 3.24 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.30, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.83 [9]. - The target price is set at RMB 45.91, based on a 20x PE for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% from previous estimates [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.62 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.72 billion by 2027, with annual growth rates of 29.3%, 11.7%, 11.3%, and 10.5% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2.65 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.58 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 31.7%, 9.6%, 11.6%, and 10.4% respectively [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 29.6% in 2024 to 36.2% in 2027 [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from desktop communication terminals reached RMB 3.08 billion, up 21.13% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 67.55% [9]. - Conference products generated RMB 1.99 billion in revenue, a 36.21% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 65.67% [9]. - Cloud office terminals saw revenue growth of 62.98%, totaling RMB 0.53 billion [9]. - The contribution of second and third growth curves to total revenue increased from 41.15% to 44.89% [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company distributed total cash dividends of approximately RMB 2.40 billion in 2024, with a payout ratio of 90.59% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced configuration attractiveness, supported by strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund investments [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance across economic cycles, with a stable growth trajectory and high dividend payouts, reinforcing shareholder returns [5][15][16] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow from Rmb 174.144 billion and Rmb 89.335 billion in 2024 to Rmb 228.087 billion and Rmb 120.373 billion by 2027, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [5][11][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain above 91%, with a net profit margin around 50% and return on equity (ROE) around 30% [5][11][15] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to Rmb 76, Rmb 84, and Rmb 93, respectively, with a target price set at Rmb 1,972 [6][16] Market Position and Valuation - Kweichow Moutai's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22, significantly lower than its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][16] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, providing a solid return cushion for investors [6][16]

扣非后净利润同比增长 167.68%，蓝莓效益凸显 诺普信(002215) ——诺普信 2024 年&2025Q1 点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 2025-05-09 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 9.46 [Table_Market] 交易数据 52 周内股价区间（元） 6.33-12.00 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 13.80 本报告导读： 2024 年，公司实现扣非后净利润 5.11 亿元，同比增长 167.68%，公司受益于云南蓝 莓亩产及土地规模增长，蓝莓销量同比增长 99.17%至 4.92 万吨。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 4,120 | 5,288 | 5,972 | 7,399 | 8,561 | | (+/-) ...

研究报告 Research Report 9 May 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 近况更新：持续获取市场份额，收购狼爪充实户外矩阵体育 Updates: Keep Gaining Market Share, the Acquisition of the Jack Wolfskin Brand to Enrich the Outdoor Brand Matrix [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$94.05 目标价 HK$102.80 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$264.02bn / US$33.96bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$157.67mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (%) 51% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$106.30-HK$65. ...

基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_Invest] [Table_Target] 目标价格： 22.00 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 16.63 [Table_Market] 交易数据 本报告导读： 竞争加剧产品价格及毛利率下降导致净利润同比减少，加大研发投入强化市场竞争 力。 竞争加剧导致净利润下滑，制气项目稳步运行 金宏气体(688106) ——金宏气体 2025 年一季度点评 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 2,427 | 2,525 | 3,216 | 3,753 | 4,419 | | (+/-)% | 23.4% | 4.0% | 27.4% | 16.7% | 17.8% | | 净利润（归母） | 315 | 201 | 266 | 353 | 445 | | (+/-)% | 37.5% | -36.1% | 32.0% | 33. ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit in Q1 2025, driven by product innovation and structural optimization, enhancing profitability [4][5] - The gold jewelry business has experienced steady revenue and profit growth, with franchising being the main engine for revenue increase [2][9] - The company is actively responding to fluctuations in gold prices through product innovation and cost control measures [5][12] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 6.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.19 billion RMB, down 41.9% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment from the "FION" bags business [2][9] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.25 billion RMB, a 25.4% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 189 million RMB, up 44.4% year-on-year [4][11] Product Segmentation - The company's gold jewelry products are categorized into traditional gold products and fashion jewelry, with traditional gold products' revenue share increasing from 38.4% in 2023 to 45.3% in 2024, showing a revenue growth rate of 30.2% [3][10] - Fashion jewelry products saw a decrease in revenue share from 50.7% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2024, with a slight decline in revenue [3][10] Distribution and Sales Channels - The company’s retail network expanded to 1,505 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 129 stores, reflecting a shift towards a more asset-light and efficient channel model [6][13] - The revenue from franchised agency increased by 32.4% year-on-year, indicating its role as the main source of revenue growth [2][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional connections with consumers to meet diverse needs across different age groups [5][12] - Plans for further expansion include opening approximately 150 new stores in mainland China in 2025 and continuing to target Southeast Asia for international growth [6][13] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend distribution strategy, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.5 RMB per 10 shares for 2025, reflecting a cumulative dividend ratio of 160.59% [6][14]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 May 2025 全球工业与能源 Global Industrial and Energy 国际工业+能源周报(05/05-05/09): 美国计划全面改造空中交通管制系统， 北约继续强化东翼防御能力 Global industrials + Energy Updates: The U.S. plans to comprehensively modernize the national air traffic control system, and NATO continues to strengthen its defense capabilities on the eastern flank | 杨斌 Bin Yang | 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao | 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang | 明悦馨 Ella Ming | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | bin.yang@htisec.com | olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com | yq.yang@htisec.com | ella.yx.mi ...

夯实成本优势，产能扩张促增长 华鲁恒升(600426) ——2025 年华鲁恒升一季报点评 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 9 May 2025 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 优于大市 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 24.43 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 20.03 [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"优于大市"评级。考虑到公司部分产品价格承压，下调 2025 风险提示：在建工程不及预期的风险、发生安全事故的风险。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 27,260 | 34,226 | 34,290 | 35,863 | 37,027 | | (+/-)% | -9.9% | 25.6% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | | 净利润（归母） | 3,5 ...

公司业绩稳定增长，积极开拓新材料领域 利安隆(300596) ——利安隆 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度点评 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 34.35 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格： 28.06 [Table_Market] 交易数据 本报告导读： 2024 年全年及 2025 年一季度公司营业收入及净利润均实现正增长，主要得益于行 业落后产能逐步出清，公司市占率提升，同时积极开发高毛利产品。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"优于大市"评级。2024 年及 2025 年一季度公司营业收入及净 利润均实现正增长，主要得益于行业落后产能逐步出清，公司市占 率提升，同时积极开发高毛利产品。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净 利润分别为 5.27、6.38 和 8.45 亿元（原 2025-26 预测为 5.71 亿元和 6.26 亿元），对应 EPS 分别为 2.29、2.78、3.68 元，参考可比公司估 值，给予 2025 年 15X PE（原为 2024 年 17x），目标价 34.35 元，维 持"优于大市" ...