| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 光伏磨底，风锂复苏，电网高景气加速兑现 —— 电新行业 2024H1&24Q2 分析师：黄林 | | | 分析师登记编码： S0130524070004 研究助理：段尚昌 2024.09 | | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声 一 2024年半年报&2024年二季报业绩回顾 二 主要子板块2024H1 & Q2业绩回顾 三 投资建议 四 风险提示 五 附录 金融报国•客户至上 2 2024H1 & 2024Q2 业绩回顾 CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES 金融报国•客户至上 3 行业营收情况： 增速明显退坡 我们统计了电新行业310家公司2024H1&24Q2业绩情况。2024H1电新行业实现营业收入15,416.04亿元，同比-9.3%, 同比增速下滑29.06pct，退坡明显。其中锂电/太阳能/风电/输变电设备板块营收占 ...

中国银河证券|CGS 量的增长与质的提升 《新型城镇化战略五年行动计划》解读 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 为保障高质量的城镇化,需要同步加大对道路、供水供电等基础设施,教育、 医疗住房等领域的投资,产生新增投资需求。据估算,两种需求的规模均将达 到约万亿。 宏观研究报告 量的增长与质的提升 新型城镇化战略五年行动计划解读 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------| | | | | | ● | 2024年 7 月 31 日,国务院发布《深入实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略五年 | 分析师 | | | 行动计划》(下文简称《计划》),迅速落实二十届三中全会关于"健全推进 | 张迪 | ...

毎日晨报 银河观点集萃 2024年9月 13日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行业跟踪报告 · 有色金属行业 美联储降息在即,有色金属行业景气反弹 有色金属行业 8 月行业动态报告 核心观点 宏观预期主导金属价格震荡,旺季即将来临有色金属需求边际改善:8月 初因美国 7月就业与经济数据超预期下滑,市场对美国经济衰退预期加重,叠 加日央行加息日元套利交易平仓加剧了市场波动,"衰退交易"下有色金属大 宗商品价格大幅震荡。但后续7月美国零售销售额数据以及8月初当周首次 申请失业金救济人数超预期,使市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧有所消退,市场 情绪企稳下有色金属大宗商品价格展开反弹。而美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍 尔全球央行年会上明确释放了美联储即将降息的信号,也对有色金属价格反弹 给予了支撑。此外,虽然国内经济复苏势头并没有明显的好转,8月国内制造 业 PMI 进一步下滑至49.1%,连续四个月低于枯荣线。但在下游"金九银十" 开工与消费旺季即将到来之际,8月有色金属需求有所边际改善,主要有色金 属品种铜、铝国内库存均有出现去化的迹象。随着价格的企稳反弹与下游消费 的好转,预计9月有色金属行业景气度有望进一步反弹。 ● 2024Q2A 股有色金属行业业绩增速反转;前期困扰有色金属行业的两大关 键宏 ...

Inflation Data - August CPI in the U.S. decreased to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.9% in July, below the market expectation of 2.6%[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was stable at 0.2%, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%, exceeding expectations[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction in September deemed appropriate[1] - The Fed is projected to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, totaling 75 basis points for the year[2] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential for a 50 basis point cut in November[2] Economic Indicators - Food prices showed stability with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while energy prices are expected to weaken due to recession concerns[1] - Core goods continued to experience deflation at -1.9%, supporting the easing of inflation[1] - Housing costs unexpectedly rose to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing to a year-on-year rebound of 5.2%[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 6.2 basis points to 3.650% and the 10-year yield up by 1.5 basis points to 3.654%[2] - The U.S. dollar index initially weakened but rebounded to 101.7414 after the CPI announcement[2] - Major U.S. stock indices collectively rose in response to the economic data[2]

可证券|CGS 行业点评报告 ·汽车行业 销量环比恢复,自主品牌增长韧性十足 8 月汽车行业销量点评 核心观点 ● 事件:中汽协发布 2024年8月汽车产销数据:8月汽车销量为245.3万辆, 同比-5.0%,环比+8.5%;产量为249.2万辆,同比-3.2%,环比+9.0%;出口 51.1万辆,同比+25.4%,环比+9.0%。 其中:1) 乘用车销售218.1万辆,同比-4.0%,环比+9.4%;2) 商用车 销售 27.2万辆,同比-12.2%,环比+1.4%;3)新能源汽车销售 110.0万辆, 同比+30.0%,其中,国内销量99.0万辆,环比+11.6%,同比+30.9%,新能 源汽车出口 11.0万辆,环比+6.1%,同比+22.0%。新能源汽车新车销量达到 汽车新车总销量的 44.8%。 ● 1)8月车市销量环比恢复,地补落地+新车上市有望支撑"金九银十"销 量稳步向上 乘用车方面,8月国内乘用车销售174.4万辆,环比+9.3%,同比-9.4%, 同比降幅较7月有所收窄,一方面国内车市受到一定的内需疲弱影响,另一方 面 8月以来北京、广东、湖北、重庆、江苏、杭州等地陆续落地或加码置换补 贴 ...

(603799)、中矿资源(002738)。 毎日晨报 银河观点集萃 2024年9月 12日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic and Policy Insights - Harris emphasized the "opportunity economy," proposing 3 million new homes and tax cuts for families and small businesses, while criticizing Trump's policies as benefiting only the wealthy[1] - Trump highlighted his past tax cuts and tariffs as drivers of strong economic growth, arguing that Biden's administration is responsible for rising prices and economic challenges[1] - Both candidates failed to introduce new policies during the debate, maintaining existing frameworks on key issues like immigration, energy, and international relations[1] Debate Performance and Public Perception - Post-debate odds shifted, with Harris's winning probability increasing to 56% while Trump's dropped to 48%[5] - Media outlets generally favored Harris's performance, noting her proactive approach compared to Trump's defensive stance[5] - Harris successfully positioned herself as a "new generation leader," contrasting with both Biden and Trump, appealing to voters seeking change[5] Market Reactions - The debate had limited immediate impact on capital markets, with slight decreases in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index[5] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell from approximately 3.65% to below 3.64% during the debate, while the dollar index decreased from around 101.67 to 101.5[5] - Market reactions were more influenced by external factors, such as comments from the Bank of Japan regarding potential monetary policy adjustments[5] Future Considerations - The upcoming vice-presidential debate on October 1 presents another opportunity for Trump's team to regain momentum[5] - Harris's policies may benefit sectors like clean energy and technology, while Trump's focus on traditional energy and immigration could appeal to his base[5]

资料来测：iFind, 行业点评报告 · 电子行业 处理器革命性升级，苹果引领科技创新 2024年09月10日 核心观点 ● 事件:苹果9月 10 日凌晨正式发布了 A18 及 A18 Pro 两款芯片,采用第二 代 3nm 制程,将分别在 iPhone 16/Plus 及 iPhone 16 Pro/Max 新机中首 发搭载。 ● 处理器革命性升级:1）A18 芯片:从 CPU 性能看,A18 芯片的 6 核 CPU (包括 2个性能核心和 4个效率核心)比上一代 A16芯片快 30%,同时功耗 降低了 30%;从 GPU 的性能看, A18 芯片的 5 核 GPU 性能比 A16 芯片快 40%,功耗降低了 35%,同时配备了 16核神经网络引擎、系统内存带宽增加 了 17%。2) A18 Pro 芯片: A18 Pro 的 6 核 CPU 相比 A17 Pro 性能提升 15%,同时功耗降低20%;6核 GPU 相比 A17 Pro 性能提升 20%,同时支持 视频编码的 2x 数据处理、使用更大的缓存、下一代 ML 加速器。 ● 支持 Apple Intelligence,强化 AI 处理功能:全新设 ...

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