宏观动态报告 中央一号文件的五大看点 2025 年 2 月 25 日 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092-8096 网：zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 聂天奇 ☎: 010-8092-7737 0: nietianqi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2025年 2 月 23 日,指导三农工作的中央一号文件正式发布。做好三农工作, ● 是应对复杂严峻国际环境的重要保障,是统筹发展与安全的重要一环;同时, 中国经济驱动方式由过去土地财政转向"因地制宜发展新质生产力",我们认 为所谓因地制宜有两层含义:一则是核心都市圈通过人口聚集产生的"正外部 性"提高全要素生产率;二则是农村地区受土地资源约束,提高人均收入和 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment rating for the aviation sector, suggesting potential growth in profitability due to improved demand and pricing dynamics in 2025 [5][7]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from an increase in international flights and domestic travel demand, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [5]. - The airport sector is anticipated to see a recovery in international passenger traffic, with a focus on the impact of duty-free agreements and luxury brand entries [5]. - The cross-border logistics segment is projected to grow due to the rise of cross-border e-commerce, with domestic brands expanding their global presence [6]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing growth driven by e-commerce, with major players enhancing their competitive advantages [6]. - The report highlights the recovery rates of domestic and international air traffic compared to 2019 levels, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation market [21][26]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - The report notes that major airlines in China have seen significant recovery in domestic and international capacity, with domestic ASK recovery rates reaching over 132% for some carriers [21]. - International flight recovery rates vary, with some routes showing over 200% recovery compared to 2019 [26]. - Airports are expected to benefit from a resurgence in international travel and improved economic conditions, with specific attention to duty-free agreements [5][29]. Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a decline in shipping rates, with the SCFI and CCFI indices showing significant year-on-year decreases [34]. - The shipping sector is facing challenges, but there are ongoing developments in port infrastructure aimed at enhancing capacity and efficiency [79]. Road and Rail - The report highlights a growth in railway passenger and freight volumes, with significant year-on-year increases in both categories [53][62]. - Road transport also shows positive trends, with passenger and freight volumes increasing compared to previous years [62]. Express Logistics - The express delivery sector reported revenues of 137.89 billion yuan in December 2024, marking a 13.60% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in business volume [68]. - The average delivery price has decreased, indicating competitive pressures in the market [68].

证券 CGS 行业周报 · 汽车行业 汽车行业 2024业绩向好,自主品牌产业链利 汽车行业双周报 2025 年 2 月 21 日 核心观点 0 双周观点 在已披露 2024年业绩预告的 101家 ZX 汽车行业上市公司中,有 62 家 企业 2024 年净利润实现正增长(按增速中值计算),受以旧换新政策驱动与 自主品牌加速推进新能源替代实现市占率增长,A 股汽车行业 2024年整体业 绩向好。分版块来看,乘用车板块新能源、出口销量高增的头部自主品牌利润 实现高增;商用车板块客车企业受益于国内市场稳定+海外市场高景气度利润 实现高增;零部件板块头部自主品牌配套产业链利润高增长,如比亚迪、吉利、 奇瑞、小米、赛力斯、理想等产业链;摩托车板块得益于出口高增长,头部企 业实现利润高增长。 截止 2 月 21 日,ZX 汽车板块共有 101 家上市公司披露 2024 年业绩预 告,其中 62家企业净利润实现正增长。分版块来看,乘用车板块 7 家企业披 露业绩预告,赛力斯、长城汽车实现利润正增长,分别实现扣非净利润 54 亿 元/97亿元（按中值计算,下同）,同比分别+212%/+101%,分别受益于新能 源与出口销量 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the light industry sector, highlighting the ongoing digital transformation and AI integration as key growth drivers. Core Insights - The light industry is leading in digital transformation within the national industrial sector, with significant government support for digital upgrades. As of 2023, the platform design ratio for light industry enterprises reached 16.3%, and the intelligent production ratio was 12.2%, both exceeding the manufacturing average by 5.7 and 5.6 percentage points respectively [6][7]. - AI technology is increasingly empowering the industry, with applications in design, product development, and customer engagement, leading to continuous innovation in business models and operational efficiency [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Digital Foundation for AI Implementation - Case Study 1: Zhiou Technology has developed a comprehensive digital operation management system, enhancing supply chain efficiency and inventory management through advanced information systems [8][9]. - Case Study 2: Morning Glory Co. has leveraged the Morning Glory Alliance app to improve channel efficiency and product management, serving over 100,000 terminal stores by mid-2022 [16][17]. - Case Study 3: Oppein Home has implemented self-developed design software across over 7,000 stores, enabling integrated design and sales processes [20][21]. 2. AI Technology Empowerment - AI design applications are enhancing customization in the home furnishing sector, with companies like Shangpin Zhaopei leading the way in AI-driven design factories [32][33]. - The AI eyewear market is experiencing rapid growth, with major brands like Meta and Ray-Ban launching AI-enabled products, indicating a shift towards consumer-oriented smart eyewear [46][63]. - AI toys are gaining traction, with predictions that AI-driven toys will account for over 15% of the global toy market by 2025, reflecting the increasing integration of AI in consumer products [69]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies that are effectively integrating AI and digital technologies into their operations, as these firms are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [6][31].

行业周报 · 建筑材料行业 逐步恢复、部分产品有涨价预期 2025年2月 23 日 核心观点 建筑材料行业 | 推荐 | | --- | | 维持评级 | 分析师 贾亚萌 ☎: 010-80927680 网: jiayameng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-2-21 建筑材料(SW) 沪深300 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -200/ 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河建材】行业周报_市场逐步启动,需求恢复下 价格有望回升_20250216 【银河建材】行业周报_节后需求尚未恢复,关注春 季市场恢复情况_20250209 【银河建材】行业周报_静待市场恢复,关注淡季布 局机会_20250119 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 水泥:需求继续恢复,熟料库存偏低对价格有支撑。本周全国水泥价格继续 ● 下降。需求端,市场逐步启动,需求稳步增长,但整体需求恢复情况较往年同 期相比仍偏低。供给端,目前全国范围内大部分熟料线 ...

Group 1: Computer Industry - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of DeepSeek on the computer industry, shifting focus from "computing power accumulation" to a collaborative development of "algorithms + data + computing power" [2][3] - The rise of DeepSeek is expected to lead to a systematic revaluation of the computer industry's value framework, with a significant increase in demand for inference computing power [2][3] - The report identifies three key trends: a shift from "training-centric" to "inference-centric" computing, a migration of industry focus from "infrastructure investment" to "application explosion," and the emergence of new players in the AI landscape [2][3] Group 2: AI Glasses Industry - The AI glasses market is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with an expected shipment of 3.5 million units in 2025, representing a 130% year-on-year increase [9] - The integration of AR and AI in glasses is seen as an inevitable trend, with the potential to redefine human-computer interaction and enhance cognitive efficiency [9] - The report highlights the importance of industry standardization and the role of various manufacturers in accelerating the industrialization of AI glasses [8][9] Group 3: Military Industry - The report discusses the significant opportunities presented by AI in military applications, including enhancing operational efficiency and enabling intelligent decision-making [13][14] - It notes that AI's integration into military systems is expected to evolve from a supportive role to a strategic asset, redefining warfare [13][14] - The military AI market is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted CAGR of 33.3% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial benefits for related enterprises [15] Group 4: Real Estate Industry - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the real estate market, with a projected 12.9% decline in sales area for 2024, but with a narrowing of the sales decline over time [19][20] - It highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support financing and demand [20] - The report also notes that the inventory clearance cycle is slightly decreasing, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the social services industry, but it provides recommendations for specific companies within various segments [3][59]. Core Insights - The SW social services industry experienced a weekly change of +0.9%, with education and professional services showing positive growth of 1.9% and 2.8% respectively, while tourism and hotel dining sectors declined by -1.0% and -2.1% [3][59]. - The report highlights the recovery of high school weekend breaks in cities like Hangzhou, which may boost demand for extracurricular training and AI education products [3][7]. - The issuance of travel consumption vouchers has significantly stimulated demand, with record participation rates indicating strong consumer willingness to spend [3][7]. - The upcoming IPO of the chain service company Mixue is seen as a sign of stabilization in industry competition, with a planned global issuance of 17.06 million shares at a price of HKD 202.5 per share [3][8]. - AI technology is expected to enhance recruitment processes in human resources, leading to potential improvements in service providers' performance [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Segment Tracking and Insights - **Education**: The restoration of weekend breaks in high schools may increase demand for non-academic training and AI education products, with recommendations for companies like Xueda Education and Bean Education [3][7]. - **Tourism**: The positive impact of travel consumption vouchers has been validated, with record participation rates reflecting resilient consumer spending [3][7]. - **Chain Services**: Mixue's IPO is anticipated to stabilize competition within the industry, with a significant number of stores and consistent revenue growth [3][8]. - **Human Resources**: The integration of AI in recruitment processes is expected to lead to improvements in service providers, with recommendations for companies like Kelly Services and Beijing Human Resources [3][9]. 2. Industry Data - **Retail**: In December 2024, China's total retail sales reached CNY 4.5172 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [11][13]. - **Hotel Performance**: The hotel occupancy rate was reported at 55.2%, with significant declines in average daily rates and revenue per available room due to high comparative figures from the previous year [24][31]. - **Gambling**: Macau's gross gaming revenue in January was MOP 18.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6% [49][51]. 3. Industry News - **Tourism Retail**: The establishment of a new duty-free store in Wuhan is part of a broader strategy to enhance retail offerings [53]. - **Hotel Sector**: International hotel chains reported profit increases, indicating a recovery trend in the hospitality industry [54]. - **Education Sector**: New policies encouraging industry-part-time teachers in universities aim to enhance educational quality and relevance [57]. 4. Market Trends - The social services sector's performance is influenced by AI technology trends, with education and professional services sectors showing potential for innovation and growth [59][60]. 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies across various segments, with several companies recommended for investment based on their projected performance [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The new energy storage manufacturing industry is expected to experience high-quality development, supported by government initiatives and policies [1] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a significant increase in expected returns [3][4] - The wind power sector is projected to see substantial growth in installed capacity, with land and offshore wind installations expected to reach 90-100 GW and 12-16 GW respectively in 2025 [4] - The energy storage sector is anticipated to maintain high growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% from 2023 to 2030 [4] - The lithium battery sector is supported by three main drivers: increased consumption, policy support for new energy vehicles, and the growth of energy storage [5] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, driven by high-quality demand and industry collaboration [5] Market Review - From February 14 to February 21, 2025, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.00%, the ChiNext index by 2.99%, and the new energy index by 3.21%, ranking sixth among industries [11] - The top three sub-industries in terms of growth were electric motors, energy storage, and vehicle motor control, with increases of 17.50%, 12.66%, and 8.55% respectively [11] Valuation Analysis - As of February 21, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the power equipment and new energy industry was 26.94 times, which is at the 31.38% historical percentile, indicating a low valuation [3][17] - The P/E ratios for sub-industries as of the same date were: grid (24.11), energy storage (32.12), solar (19.34), new energy vehicles (27.18), and wind power (27.47) [17] Industry Data Tracking - Lithium carbonate prices were reported at 76,100 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.13% [36] - The photovoltaic industry is entering a down cycle, with prices for key materials remaining stable but under pressure [20][22] - The report highlights the importance of the energy storage sector, with significant growth expected in the coming years [4] Key News Tracking - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has initiated a special action plan for the "AI+" initiative in central enterprises [56] - The Southern Power Grid has completed the construction of a demonstration area for offshore wind power and energy storage [52] - The National Energy Investment Group has integrated AI technology into its virtual power plant platform, enhancing operational efficiency [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its asset quality and potential for improved credit demand due to increased financial support for private enterprises [29]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 2.27% in 2024, influenced by the performance of city and rural commercial banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the optimization of asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.50% as of the end of 2024, down 5 basis points from the previous quarter [10]. - Financial support for private enterprises is expected to increase, with banks likely to enhance their credit services, particularly for small and micro enterprises [11][12]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has declined, with state-owned banks showing marginal improvement while city and rural banks have seen significant declines [8]. - The report notes a decrease in net interest margin to 1.52%, with expectations for further optimization of deposit costs [8][10]. Market Performance - The banking sector underperformed the market, with a 1.07% decline compared to a 1.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [5][13]. - Individual bank performances varied, with notable increases in stocks like CITIC Bank (+2.32%) and Postal Savings Bank (+1.71%) [5][13]. Valuation and Company Analysis - As of February 21, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 0.66, indicating a 40.74% discount compared to the overall A-share market [21]. - The sector's dividend yield is reported at 6.49%, ranking second among all industries [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's asset quality remains robust, with expectations for improved credit demand driven by fiscal support and monetary policy adjustments [29]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials industry is gradually recovering, with some products expected to see price increases [1] - Cement demand continues to recover, supported by low clinker inventory, while prices are expected to rise as demand strengthens [42] - The consumer building materials sector is seeing a rebound in demand due to increased transactions in the real estate market [43] - Fiberglass manufacturers are showing a strong willingness to raise prices, particularly for raw yarns [44] - Float glass prices have turned from rising to falling, with demand not showing significant improvement [44] Summary by Sections Industry News - Guizhou Province has released a directory for equipment updates and technological transformations in key industrial sectors, including construction materials [8] Industry Data - The average national cement price is 334.97 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.94% week-on-week, but a year-on-year increase of 5.72% [23] - The average price of float glass is 1395.90 CNY per ton, down 1.08% from the previous week and down 32.52% year-on-year [24] Market Review - The construction materials sector has seen a decline of 0.96% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.97 percentage points [31] - The cement manufacturing sector has decreased by 1.68%, while the fiberglass manufacturing sector has decreased by 0.84% [31]