Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced mixed results, with US indices Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 declining by -2.5%, -2.5%, and -2.6% respectively[2] - European markets showed divergence; the UK FTSE 100 rose while Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 fell[2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, only Vietnam's VN30 index and the Hang Seng index saw gains[2] Economic Indicators - US May PMI exceeded expectations, indicating expansion in manufacturing and services sectors[2] - However, consumer confidence in the US fell by 2.7% compared to the previous month, raising concerns about economic recession[2] US Treasury Market - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the 30-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.15%, while the 10-year and 2-year yields reached approximately 4.63% and 4.0% respectively[2] - The surge in Treasury yields impacted the recovering US stock market, leading to significant volatility[2] Policy and Strategy - Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which contributed to market turbulence and temporarily halted further increases in Treasury yields[2] - The report suggests two main strategies: addressing inflation concerns through oil production increases and enhancing the purchasing power of the Treasury market via stablecoin issuance[2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a left-side allocation in the Treasury market, focusing on short-term bonds while trading long-term bonds[2] - In equity markets, it advises a strategy of buying low and selling high amid volatility, particularly in response to tariff negotiations[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to stabilize with potential price rebounds due to inventory reductions at ports and increased demand from power plants as summer approaches [4][5] - The report highlights a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, with limited production growth and anticipated demand recovery driving prices upward [4] - The coal sector is seen as having confirmed its bottom, with market concerns over earnings per share (EPS) expected to gradually dissipate [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Overview**: As of May 23, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 611 CNY/ton, down 0.49% from the previous week [9][10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 3.46% to 419,000 tons, while port throughput rose by 44.34% to 599,000 tons [32][33] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports decreased by 1.09% to 77.84 million tons [43][44] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.03% increase compared to a 0.57% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [65] - Notable performers include Dayou Energy (+5.76%) and Jinkong Coal Industry (+5.20%) [67] 3. International Coal Market - International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 68 USD/ton, down 1.81% [54][56] - The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened, with thermal coal at 5.57 CNY/ton and coking coal at -306.80 CNY/ton [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the overall demand for civil explosives is stabilizing and improving, despite a slight decline in production value and a decrease in profits in April 2025 due to falling raw material prices [5][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support from policies in western regions, which is expected to sustain the demand for civil explosives [5][7] - The report notes the significant growth potential in overseas markets and military applications, with domestic companies expanding their international presence [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the civil explosive production enterprises achieved a total production value of 11.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%, while total profits reached 2.219 billion yuan, an increase of 4.22% [4][8] - The production and sales of industrial explosives during the same period were 1.3163 million tons and 1.3034 million tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.72% and 1.65% respectively [5][12] Monthly Data Analysis - In April 2025, the production value for civil explosive enterprises was 3.689 billion yuan, down 2.76% year-on-year, with profits of 906 million yuan, down 15.99% year-on-year [5][8] - The production of industrial explosives in April was 416,500 tons, up 1.83% year-on-year, while the price of ammonium nitrate fell by 14.58% to 2,279 yuan per ton [5][7] Regional Insights - The report indicates that the production values in Xinjiang and Tibet increased by 8.74% and 7.34% respectively from January to April 2025, indicating a positive trend in civil explosive demand in these regions [5][7] - The report discusses the impact of debt resolution policies on demand recovery in high-debt provinces, with several provinces showing positive production value growth [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, Guangdong Hongda, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the civil explosive market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 19 - May 23), there was a divergence in fund rates, a decline in large - bank lending, and a decrease in fund leverage. - Net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yields to maturity of CDs across all tenors showed an upward trend. - In terms of cash - bond trading, the main buyers were funds, which mainly increased their holdings of credit bonds within 5 years and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The scale of rural commercial banks' increased holdings decreased, insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds with maturities of 15 - 30 years, and wealth management products continued to increase their allocation of CDs. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Fundamentals - **Open - market operations**: A total of 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations of 135 billion, 357 billion, 157 billion, 154.5 billion, and 142.5 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a cumulative reverse - repurchase injection of 946 billion yuan. On Friday, 500 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) was injected, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 960 billion yuan for the whole week [5][10]. - **Fund prices**: As of May 23, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.61%, 1.63%, 1.57%, and 1.59% respectively, changing by - 3.94BP, 0.15BP, - 6.61BP, and - 5.14BP compared to May 16, and were at the 25%, 10%, 23%, and 5% historical percentiles respectively [5][15]. - **Net borrowing of major lenders**: The net borrowing of major lending institutions (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) was 312.3 billion yuan for the whole week (May 19 - May 23), an increase of 329.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][18]. - **Pledged - repo trading volume**: The average daily trading volume of pledged repos decreased to 6.72 trillion yuan, with a maximum single - day volume of 6.98 trillion yuan, a 5.81% decrease from the previous week's average daily volume. The average daily proportion of overnight - repo transactions increased to 87.4%, with a maximum single - day proportion of 88.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week's average daily proportion, and was at the 84.9% percentile as of May 23 [5][27]. - **Leverage ratio of broad - based funds**: As of May 23, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.1%, 192.8%, 126%, and 105.4% respectively, changing by 0.15BP, - 2.11BP, - 0.25BP, and - 0.06BP compared to May 16, and were at the 11%, 3%, 53%, and 37% historical percentiles respectively [5][32]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **CD issuance and financing**: The issuance scale of CDs increased this week, with a total issuance of 712.69 billion yuan, an increase of 199.45 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The total maturity was 737.24 billion yuan, an increase of 161.04 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 24.55 billion yuan, an increase of 38.41 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][35]. - **CD maturity volume**: The maturity volume of CDs increased this week to 737.24 billion yuan, an increase of 161.04 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The maturity volume of CDs next week (May 26 - May 30) is expected to be 652.73 billion yuan [35][41]. - **Bill rates**: Most bill rates declined this week. As of May 23, the 3 - month direct - discount rate and transfer - discount rate of state - owned commercial bills, and the 6 - month direct - discount rate and transfer - discount rate of state - owned commercial bills were 1.19%, 1.19%, 1.13%, and 1.18% respectively, changing by - 2BP, - 10BP, 0BP, and - 9BP compared to May 16 [5][50]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Main buyers and sellers of cash bonds**: The main buyers of cash bonds this week were funds, with a net purchase of 95.9 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. The main sellers were joint - stock banks, with a net sale of 119.6 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week [5][52]. - **Fund investment**: Funds net - bought 95.9 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 42.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, 34 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 19.3 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, they mainly reduced their holdings of 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds and increased their holdings of credit bonds within 1 year [52]. - **Wealth - management product investment**: Wealth - management products net - bought 84.4 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 7.7 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 7.9 billion yuan in credit bonds, 4.7 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 64.1 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds within 1 year [52]. - **Rural financial institution investment**: Rural financial institutions net - sold 1.4 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 9.5 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 0.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, 1.4 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 12.8 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [53][55]. - **Insurance company investment**: Insurance companies net - bought 88.5 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 62.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 2.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, a reduction of 1.5 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 25 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 15 - 20 - year interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to stabilize with potential price rebounds due to inventory reductions at ports and increased demand from power plants as summer approaches [4][5] - The report highlights a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, with limited production growth and anticipated demand recovery driving prices upward [4] - The coal sector is seen as having confirmed its bottom, with market concerns over earnings per share (EPS) likely to dissipate [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of May 23, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 611 CNY/ton, down 0.49% from the previous week [9][10] - **Supply and Demand**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 3.46% to 419,000 tons, while port throughput rose by 44.34% to 599,000 tons [32][33] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports decreased by 1.09% to 77.84 million tons [43][44] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.03% increase compared to a 0.57% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [65] - Notable performers include Dayou Energy and Jinkong Coal, with increases of 5.76% and 5.20% respectively [67] 3. International Coal Market - International thermal coal prices have declined, with Newcastle port FOB thermal coal at 68 USD/ton, down 1.81% [54][56] - The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened, with a thermal coal price difference of 5.57 CNY/ton [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to see a long-term bullish trend, with gold prices rising slightly by 1.27% during the week of May 19-23, 2025. Ongoing international trade issues, particularly threats of tariffs on EU products, contribute to a persistent uncertainty in global trade, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, with significant drops in copper (-1.5%), aluminum (-0.6%), lead (-0.4%), zinc (-2.2%), tin (-0.4%), and nickel (-2.1%) due to tariff concerns affecting global demand [4]. - Small metals show mixed trends, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides declining, while tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by recovering manufacturing demand [4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, have seen price declines, with lithium carbonate prices down by 3.0% and 40.6% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are forecasted to remain strong due to ongoing trade uncertainties and the weakening position of the US dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report details the price changes for various industrial metals, highlighting a general downward trend influenced by tariff discussions [27]. 1.3 Small Metals - The report notes a decrease in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides, while tungsten prices are increasing, indicating a potential growth in demand for tungsten in manufacturing [29][31]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium and cobalt prices are declining, with lithium carbonate prices down by 3.0% week-on-week and 40.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant market adjustment [34]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a 1.26% increase, contrasting with a 0.57% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a relative strength in the sector [35]. 3. Key Events of the Week - A significant event was President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, which could impact the non-ferrous metals market [41].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《美国 BIS 加强 AI 芯片出口管制， 算力供需将向国内回归》，2025.5.19 2.《中美将开始接触，出海产业链预 期向好》，2025.5.10 3.《国内需求回归，国产算力深度布 局》，2025.5.5 4.《通宇通讯（002792.SZ）：净利润 率同比增长，低空、卫星东风将启》， 2025.4.28 5. 《 海 外 加 大 Capex ， 国 内 cloudmatrix 规模部署，算力和光通 信具持续性》，2025.4.26 通信 2025 年 05 月 26 日 美国对昇腾禁用遭反制，生态竞赛掀 开帷幕 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 美国对华芯 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2025 年 05 月 26 日 计算机 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -27% -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1）党的十八大以来，习近平总书记多次对发展壮大国有经济发表重要讲话、作出重要指示 批示，强调国有企业必须做强做优做大。 2）加快推动高水平科技自立自强：加强企业主导的产学研深度融合，推动新技术新产品新 场景大规模应用示范，打通成果转化应用"最后一公里"。 1.《博睿数据：拥抱华为与字节，新 产品或进放量周期》，2025.5.12 2.《中科星图：对标 PLTR，AI+数据 分析之王》，2025.5.8 3.《24 年报&25Q1 季报总结： 盈利 反转 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 优于大市（维持） 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 26 日 有色金属周报：关税扰动依旧， 黄金持续看好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属：金价 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 优于大市（维持） 通信 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《美国 BIS 加强 AI 芯片出口管制， 算力供需将向国内回归》，2025.5.19 2.《中美将开始接触，出海产业链预 期向好》，2025.5.10 3.《国内需求回归，国产算力深度布 局》，2025.5.5 4.《通宇通讯（002792.SZ）：净利润 率同比增长，低空、卫星东风将启》， 2025.4.28 通信 2025 年 05 月 26 日 美国对昇腾禁用遭反制，生态竞赛掀 开帷幕 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 美国对华芯片制裁，商务部强硬回复。我们认为，特朗普政府进一步调整中美 芯片进出口管制对我国算力供应造成更深限制。我国商务部对此进行了强硬回复 ...