Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, an increase of 7.74% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum saw a significant increase, with a total output of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.45%, setting a historical high for the company [7] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 6.5%, contributing to the company's performance improvement [7] - The company anticipates continued growth in electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1.41 million tons for alumina [7] - The report forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.78 billion yuan, and 60.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.07 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - The company reported a total market capitalization of 60.24 billion yuan and a total asset value of 41.90 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.27 yuan, with expectations to rise to 1.96 yuan in 2025 and 2.11 yuan in 2026 [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2024 to 19.8% by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, up 7.74% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, an increase of 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, with a historical high of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 22.45%. The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, up about 6.5% from 2023 [7] - The company is expected to continue its upward production trend in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 141,000 tons of alumina [7] - The decline in alumina costs is anticipated to enhance electrolytic aluminum profits, with the average price of alumina as of March 25, 2025, being 3,160.00 yuan per ton, down about 43.6% from the beginning of the year [7] - The company forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.8 billion yuan, and 60.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 3,467.96 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 60,238.42 million yuan [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 54,450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 4,412 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024: 1.27 yuan [8] - Gross margin for 2024: 13.2% [8] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2024: 15.6% [8]

[Table_Main] 医药生物 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《医药行业周报：生命科学产业 链需求端逐步回暖，关注并购催 化，关注毕得医药、泰坦科技等》， 2025.3.23 2.《医药行业周报：流动性改善+基 本面反转，看好港股高值耗材后续 行情，重点关注归创通桥、心泰医 疗、微创脑科学等》，2025.3.17 3.《昆药集团 2024 年报点评：核心 品种快速增长，品牌+渠道建设稳步 推进》，2025.3.12 4.《医药行业周报：医药板块哪些 子行业和公司预期一季度业绩好， 重点关注创新药、力诺药包、浙江 医药等》，2025.3.9 5.《医药行业周报： 创新药及其产 业 链 大 热 ， 后 续 如 何 布 局 ？ 》， 2025.3.3 医药行业周报：减肥赛道持续景气， 关注信达生物、博瑞医药、歌礼制药 等 [Table_Su ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion yuan, down 28.39% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed strong performance with self-produced coal sales increasing by 6.68% year-on-year, while the average selling price of coal decreased by 16.31% [5] - The company plans to produce 155-160 million tons of coal in 2025, aiming for a 3% reduction in sales cost per ton compared to the previous year [5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.33% [5] - The average selling price of coal in Q4 was 637.79 yuan per ton, down 4.56% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.54 yuan per share for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 0.77 yuan per share, representing 53.59% of the net profit for the year [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues of 125.8 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 130.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 9.5 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.39, 11.87, and 10.71 respectively [5][6] Market Comparison - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date decline of 34% [3][4] - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to outperform the market in the coming months [2]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 30 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《山东黄金：产量资源明显上涨》， 2025.3.29 2.《南山铝业（600219.SH）：公司业 绩大幅增长，铝加工材高端化和印尼 铝厂扩产共同发展》，2025.3.26 3.《神火股份：煤炭业务有所拖累， 铝板块业绩或有提升》，2025.3.26 4.《紫金矿业（601899.SH）：国际矿 业龙头业绩爆发，矿产金铜产量增长 路径明确》，2025.3.24 5.《有色金属周报：地缘风云再起， 美联储暗示降息，黄金上涨势头不 减》，2025.3.23 有色金属周报：关税已敲定，地 缘风云再 ...

通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《中国移动(600941.SH)：HBN 拉 动业务增长，算力转型走深走实》， 2025.3.28 2025 年 03 月 29 日 运营商投资向算力倾斜，AIDC 具有 持续性 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 运营商资本开支持续投向算力，算力基建持续完善。近期三大运营商，依次发 布年报，各家算力基础建设均在逐步完善的阶段，同时均已经明确将加大对算力方 向的资本开支。我们认为，三大运营商的资本投放或将充分带动算力基础设施配套 产业链。1、运营商云相关收入增长良好。2024 年中国联通算网数智业务收入达到 825 亿元，同比提升 9.6%。中国移动移动云收入达到人民币 1,004 亿元，同比增 长 20.4%, IaaS+ ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季 将至，关注煤焦钢弹性》， 2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 高炉复产铁水回升，关注煤焦钢弹性。A）价格及事件回顾：本周，京唐港主焦 煤价格为 1380 元/吨（环比持平）。焦煤方面：产地方面，主产区部分煤矿因事 故停产限产，供给小幅下降。下游方面，第十一轮焦炭提降落地后，焦企行业利 润处于盈亏平衡边缘，开工率暂稳。根据 Mysteel 数据，本周 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季 将至，关注煤焦钢弹性》， 2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 支撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情》，2025.2.9 煤炭周报：红利价值不改，把握 低位布局 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 03 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 高炉复产铁水回升，关注煤焦钢弹性。A）价格及事件回顾：本周，京唐港主焦 煤价 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025年3月28日 | | | ● 核心观点:2025年政府工作报告定调积极,1-2月一般公共预算支出处于历史高 位实现开门红,在此基础上,我们尝试构建省份财政跟踪框架,便于衡量财政数据 的重点任务进展。 · 2025年财政预算报告定调积极 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 · 2025年1-2月财政开门红 · 2025年财政主要任务及各省实施进度 请务必阔读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ● 第一本账:财政收入增速目标设置较为严谨。2025年全国一般公共预算收入增长 0.1%,达2020年疫情外最低收入增速。整体来看,收入增速目标设置较为严谨。 ● 第二本账:对调动广义财政积极性有重要作用。2025年全国政府性基金预算收入 6.2万亿,增长 0.7%。三大逻辑贯穿财政第二本账:一是规模增加;二是支持范围 增加;三是政策效果增加。 ● 赤字率:隐含名义 GDP 增速可能在 5%左右。4%的赤字率对应的赤字为 5.66 万 亿,对应的 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025 年 03 月 28 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 从"美元周期"看"海湖庄园协议" [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 副 什么是"海湖庄园协议"？随着美元近期阶段性走弱，"海湖庄园协议"（Mar-a-Lago Accord）成为市场关注的热点话题，这一概念源自 Stephen Miran 于 2024 年 11 月发表的报告《重构全球贸易体系的用户指南》。在这篇报告中，Miran 认为美国 经济失衡的根源在于美元的长期高估，制造业和可贸易部门承担了大部分成本。因 此 Miran 在报告中也重点阐述了弱美元政策，具体工具主要包括：多边货币协定、 置换"世纪债券"、对外国官方持有的美国国债征收税费、主动积累外汇储备。 如何理解"美元周期"？从长周期的角度看，技术（A）/全要素生产率（TFP）、 资本（K）、劳动力（L）、资源（T）在全球范 ...