优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 59% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《算力卫星与金穹系统，低轨卫星 基础设施加速落地》，2025.6.3 2.《美国对昇腾禁用遭反制，生态竞 赛掀开帷幕》，2025.5.26 3.《美国 BIS 加强 AI 芯片出口管制， 算力供需将向国内回归》，2025.5.19 4.《中美将开始接触，出海产业链预 期向好》，2025.5.10 5.《国内需求回归，国产算力深度布 局》，2025.5.5 通信 2025 年 06 月 09 日 美国推出稳定币，中国数字货币已应 用推广 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 美国、中国香港更新稳定币政策，加密货币向"正规军"转化。美国推进稳定 币法案，中国香港也随 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 6 月 9 日 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 苏鸿婷 邮箱：suht＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 大行买短债 流动性与机构行为跟踪 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 本周（6.03-6.06）关注要点：本周资金利率下行，大行融出日均环比上行，基金杠 杆小幅上行；存单净融资减少，各期限存单到期收益率表现分化；现券成交来看， 买盘主力来自其他产品类，主要增持存单，农商行转为增持存单，保险增持 15-30Y 超长利率债，基金各期限利率债均有增持，大行买入 1-3Y 利率债。 货币资金面 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 固定收益点评 本周（6.3-6.6，下同）共有 16026 亿元逆回购到期。周二至周五央行分别投放逆 回购 4545、2149、1265 和 1350 亿元，期间累计投放 9309 亿元逆回购，全周净 回笼流动性 671 ...

海外市场周报 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年06月09日 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号: S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨,纳指、标普 500和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%;欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨;亚太地区涨多跌少,仅越南 VN30和日经 225 指数回调。 | 会议,有望带来好消息。特朗普在国内遭遇马斯克冲击、海外对日对欧谈判踌躇难 | | --- | | 进的背景下,做出一些让步与妥协来寻求共识的诉求预计将有所加强。 | | ● 策略应对:布局风偏走高,警惕波动加剧。在全球市场有望迎来中美首轮磋商利好 | | 的背景下,布局风险偏好走高的思路值得关注,但同时也应警惕可能的波动加剧带 | | 来的潜在风险。从大类资产角度看,权益类是最优选择,特别是中美双方的权益市 | | 场，受可能利好的推动最强,而固收类与商品类则相对左侧,美债布局机会佳,金 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | 1. 行业数据回顾 3 | | --- | | 1.1. 贵金属 3 | | 1.2. ...

[Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 06 月 09 日 破裂与修复 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨，纳指、标普 500 和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%；欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨；亚太地区涨多跌少，仅越南 VN30 和日经 225 指数回调。 美国 5 月非农数据分化。美国 5 月非农部门新增就业 13.9 万人，失业率仍为 4.2%， 连续三个月环比持平。数据好于市场普遍预期，但低于过去 12 个月 14.9 万人的 月均增幅。同时，美劳工部大幅下修 3 月和 4 月的就业数据，抵消了美国 5 月份 劳动力市场的积极面；美国 5 月 ADP 小非农仅新增 3.7 万个就业岗位，低于 4 月 份向下修正后的 6 万个 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 08 日 涨价主线！关注氯虫苯甲酰胺、SAF 等 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.《万华化学（600309.SH）：主营 业务保持稳健，减值&报废短期拖 累》，2025.6.4 2.《SAF 企业有望迎来量价齐升阶 段！》，2025.6.4 3.《新一轮化工供给侧改革或将开 启》，2025.6.3 4.《供给端扰动，建议关注氯虫苯甲 酰胺》，2025.5.30 5.《供给端扰动，关注草甘膦投资机 会》，2025.5.29 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（5/30-6/6）上证综指涨跌幅为 +1.1%，创业板指数涨 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 结汇需求或开始释放 ——2025 年 5 月外汇储备数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 估值效应： 交易因素： 预计 5 月除外资流动外的银行结售汇逆差和其他购汇用汇需求等合计导致外储增 加 130 亿美元左右。从贸易差额看，4 月"对等关税"落地后当月贸易差额有所下 降，虽然 5 月中美联合声明发布，但考虑到订单沟通恢复等需要时间，预计 5 月 贸易差额仍可能下降，从贸易商结售汇来看，去年下半年以来贸易顺差多数时期较 高，尤其是 2024 年 12 月、2025 年 1 月和 3 月贸易顺差均超过了 1000 亿美元， 而与此相对，银行结售汇差却从去年 12 月起持续为负，或指向企业结汇需求累积， 伴随着 5 月人民币汇率升回 7.2 附近，贸易商"持汇待涨"的心态或收敛，结汇需 求有望释放，进而推动 5 月银行结售汇差回正。此外，结售汇差还受到 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the current macroeconomic environment, highlighting three core influencing factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts [2][8][12] - It discusses the political new cycle between China and the US, noting the strategic initiatives from the Trump administration aimed at reshaping the global distribution system, which may lead to increased pressure on China [9][10][11] - The report suggests that China's economic growth can achieve the 5% target for 2025, supported by manufacturing investment and broad infrastructure projects countering real estate downturns [12][13] Group 2 - The report identifies the need for a dual approach in asset allocation, focusing on both offensive and defensive strategies, particularly in a low inflation environment that supports resilient returns [14] - It highlights the significance of technology as a focal point in the great power competition, with opportunities in domestic upstream substitution and AI applications [14] - The report notes the importance of domestic policy variables, including mechanisms for stabilizing the market and the impact of new public fund regulations on future investment growth [14] Group 3 - The report outlines the expected resilience of "redemption" assets in a low inflation context, suggesting that emerging consumption trends should be prioritized for investment [14] - It discusses the steady growth of wealth management products and the decline in deposit rates, which are expected to support the bond market and similar assets [14] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply-demand dynamics in commodities, particularly in emerging industries and raw material adjustments [14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in polyurethane and is transitioning into a new materials platform enterprise, having expanded its business from MDI production to various chemical sectors [8] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13.03 billion yuan due to impairment losses and increased costs [4][14] - The company is expected to improve its asset quality and profitability in the future as it completes its impairment provisions [4] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.5% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year but an increase of 25.0% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s main business segments, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, showed varying growth rates, with sales volumes increasing by 15.3%, 15.9%, and 27.7% respectively in 2024 [4][14] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing several projects, including a 70,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion expected to be operational by Q2 2026 and a new TDI facility of 33,000 tons/year expected to start production in May 2025 [4][14] - The company is also forming a joint venture to invest in a 1.6 million tons/year specialty polyolefins project, which is anticipated to enhance its international presence [4][14] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.88 billion yuan, 17.15 billion yuan, and 19.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 23.6%, and 16.5% [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.42 yuan, 5.46 yuan, and 6.36 yuan for the same years [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a slight decline in domestic gold prices by 0.42% during the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025. The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% is anticipated to create uncertainty in global trade, which may support gold prices [7] - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, influenced by the tariff issues, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 6.5%, and 1.8% respectively [7] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, have increased, indicating a potential growth in demand driven by manufacturing recovery [7] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium and lithium hydroxide prices down by 3.4% and 2.7% respectively, highlighting a need to monitor future demand for energy metals [7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing trade uncertainties [7] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have mostly decreased, with significant drops in tin and nickel prices [30][7] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, while tungsten prices have also shown upward trends, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [31][34] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, with carbonate lithium down by 3.4% and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide down by 2.7%, suggesting a need for careful observation of future demand trends [37] 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline of 2.40%, with various sub-sectors such as precious metals and industrial metals also experiencing downturns [38] 3. Key Events of the Week - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which is expected to impact the industrial metals market significantly [44]