策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 16 日 研究助理 相关研究 科技牛市延续 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 9 月 16 日周二，A 股市场小幅震荡，科创 50 盘中再创年内新高。 国债期货大幅低开后反弹收红。商品反内卷热度延续，双焦期货再度大涨。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：高位震荡，科技恒强 图 1：A 股持续震荡走强 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 指数分化，科创 50 盘中新高。今日 A 股市场呈现震荡上行态势，主要指数分化明 显，科技板块表现强势。上证指数微涨 0.04%，万得全 A 上涨 0.48%，科创 50 上 涨 1.32%，盘中突破年内新高。市场情绪整体偏暖，3629 只个股上涨，1689 只下 跌，汽车零 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 09 月 16 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 生产韧性仍存，需求边际趋弱 ——8 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 我们具体来看 8 月经济运行的各领域： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 国家统计局发布 8 月国民经济运行数据，经济运行呈现出生产端韧性仍存、需求 端进一步放缓的特征，且内外需均出现边际走弱迹象。具体而言， 1）生产方面，工增单月同比 5.2%（上月 5.7%），低于市场预期（Wind 一致预期， 下同）的 5.75%。服务业生产指数单月同比 5.6%（上月 5.8%）； 2）需求方面，固定资产投资累计同比 0.5%（上期 1.6%），低于市场预期的 1.29%， 其中制造业投资累计同比 5.1%（上期 6.2%），低于市场预期的 5.43%，基建投资 （狭义）累计同比 2.0%（上期 3. ...

证券研究报告 | 产业经济周报 [Table_Main] 徐宇博 资格编号：S0120525090001 邮箱：xuyb5＠tebon.com.cn 2025 年 09 月 15 日 产业经济周报 证券分析师 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 周天昊 资格编号： S0120525040002 邮箱：zhouth＠tebon.com.cn 流动性支撑普涨行情，关注军工板块 配置性价、宠物产业出海趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：回顾本周行情（9/8-9/12）：市场在经历上周震荡后，迎来了宽基指数的 普涨行情，主要指数均取得正收益。受益于美联储 9 月降息预期升温，海外市场均 有不同程度涨幅。大消费领域，出海仍是长期主线，其中宠物赛道在内需增速趋缓 的时代背景下，开始寻求品牌化的出海。高端制造方向，93 阅兵后国防军工板块 承受短期回调，主要系资金面和市场情绪影响，国防军工产业快速发展的长期趋势 和背景未变，行业景气度有望回升。 大消费看点：宠物行业作为国内快速成长的新消费赛道备受关注 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 09 月 15 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 降息重启，联储临变 ——美联储 9 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 图表目录 | 图 | 1：CME | | 模型显示 | 9 月降息 | 25bp 的概率为 96.2% 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：2Y | 和 | 10Y 美债利率 | | 3 | 2 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 海外市场点评 风险提示：海外通胀反弹超预期；全球经济景气度不及预期；地缘政治局势超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 背景：美东时间 9 月 17 日（北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨），美联储将公布 9 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 9 月降息 25bp 的概率为 96.2 ...

基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 51% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《IMO 净零法案即将提交，关注绿 色甲醇投资机会》，2025.9.12 2.《乙酰丙酮涨价，看好 PVC 环保 助剂景气反转！》，2025.9.9 3.《聚酯瓶片供应或再收紧，SAF 价 格再创年内新高》，2025.9.8 4.《新凤鸣（603225.SH）：Q2 盈利 同环比提升，看好长丝旺季弹性》， 2025.9.5 5.《嘉澳环保（603822.SH）：锚定 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 两大核心客户，SAF 赛道全面领航》， 2025.9.3 基础化工 2025 年 09 月 15 日 金九银十关注纺服链化工品，绿色甲醇 迎来新契机 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 59% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 基础化工 沪深300 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《乙酰丙酮涨价，看好 PVC 环保 助剂景气反转！》，2025.9.9 2.《聚酯瓶片供应或再收紧，SAF 价 格再创年内新高》，2025.9.8 3.《新凤鸣（603225.SH）：Q2 盈利 同环比提升，看好长丝旺季弹性》， 2025.9.5 4.《嘉澳环保（603822.SH）：锚定两 大核心客户，SAF 赛道全面领航》， 2025.9.3 5.《金九银十！涤纶长丝需求改善， 有机硅或迎阶段性反弹》，2025.9.2 IMO 净零法案即将提交，关注绿 色甲醇投资机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 建议关注：复洁环保、金风科技、嘉泽新能、吉电股份等。 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are influenced by interest rates, but the relationship can be unstable at times. The sensitivity of gold prices to the US real interest rate has changed over different periods, with a notable increase in sensitivity since 2020 [4][7] - The recent non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is expected to support gold prices in the near future [4][12] - The report suggests that as gold prices align with their intrinsic value, the sensitivity to interest rates is likely to increase, indicating a stable phase for the US dollar [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sensitivity of Gold Prices to Interest Rates - The sensitivity of gold prices to the US real interest rate has varied over the past 20 years, with a sensitivity of -404.8 from 2003 to 2015, -151.3 from 2016 to 2019, and a positive sensitivity of 224.1 from 2020 to present [7][8] 2. Ongoing Rate Cut Cycle and Positive Outlook for Gold Prices - The August non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. This has led to a 90.1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year [12][14]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with the Mexican MXX index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 1.1% and 0.3% respectively[3] - In Europe, the DAX index dropped by 1.3%, and the CAC40 fell by 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 slightly increased by 0.2%[3] - The Hang Seng index in Asia rose by 1.4%, and the SENSEX30 in India increased by 1.1%[3] Employment Data - U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and prior value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%[3] - Job losses were noted in mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, information, and professional services, while healthcare and transportation showed slower growth[3] Federal Reserve Actions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 89%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 11%[3] - There is a 79% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year[3] - The market is expected to focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 for further rate decisions[3] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on the rhythm of rate cuts, particularly in U.S. Treasuries, XBI, and gold[3] - Long-term investments should consider the anticipated recovery in manufacturing and tightening commodity supply post-summer[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a positive outlook on precious metals due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, with gold prices expected to rise as the global status of the US dollar weakens [4]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with a significant infrastructure project in Tibet expected to boost overall demand and metal prices [4]. - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in precious metals and recommends specific companies such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 4% increase in Shanghai gold prices during the week of September 1-5, driven by disappointing US non-farm payroll data [4]. - The August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel changed by 1.5%, -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.1%, -0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [26]. - A major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate demand for industrial metals [4]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices increased [4]. - The report anticipates steady growth in tungsten demand due to a recovery in manufacturing [4]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices fell, while cobalt and nickel product prices mostly increased [4]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.12% [34]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, indicating a mixed performance across different categories [34]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights the weak US employment data for August, which has led to a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with the industry index down 1.4% compared to a 1.2% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][17] - Polyester bottle chip supply may tighten again, and SAF prices have reached a new high for the year, indicating potential recovery in industry profits [29][30] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by policy support and supply-side reforms [14][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index has increased by 22.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.5 percentage points but lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 15.9 percentage points [6][17] Key News and Company Announcements - Major polyester bottle chip manufacturers are maintaining a 20% production cut in September, with the possibility of increasing this to 30% if necessary [29] - SAF prices have surged, with a year-to-date increase of 42.39%, indicating strong demand and potential for price recovery in related sectors [30][31] Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with ethane rising by 12.5% and methyl maltol by 8% [7] - Conversely, PVDF saw a decline of 16.3%, indicating volatility in the chemical market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, such as Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical, as they are expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability [14][15] - It also suggests monitoring companies in sectors with supply constraints, such as vitamins and refrigerants, which may see price increases and improved performance [15][16]