证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 策略点评 证券分析师 低开高走，震荡上行 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 2 月 27 日周五，A 股市场低开高走，延续春节后震荡上行走势；国 债期货市场小幅震荡；商品指数上涨，沪锡领涨。 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：低开高走，震荡上行 低开高走，震荡上行。今日 A 股市场低开高走，上证指数全天在 4130‑4170 点区 间震荡，最终收于 4162.88 点，涨幅 0.39%；深证成指相对偏弱，收于 14495.09 点，微跌 0.06%；创业板指全天弱势运行，收于 3310.30 点，跌幅 1.04%；万得 全 A 指数上涨 0.41%，反映市场整体赚钱效应温和。全市场 3267 只个股上涨， 2066 只下 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 26 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 深证成指年内新高 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 2 月 26 日周四，A 股市场震荡分化，深证成指盘中创年内新高；国 债期货市场延续调整；商品指数小幅回调，碳酸锂大涨。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：震荡分化，深证年内新高 震荡分化，深证年内新高。今日 A 股市场呈现震荡分化格局，主要指数涨跌互现， 上证指数全天围绕平盘震荡，最终微跌 0.01%收于 4146.63 点；深证成指表现相 对强势，上涨 0.19%收于 14503.79 点，盘中创年内新高；创业板下跌 0.29%收于 3344.98 点；万得全 A 指数上涨 0.21%。全市场 2481 只个股上涨，2866 只下跌， 反映市场 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a strong upward trend, with the three major indices collectively rising. The cyclical sectors, including real estate services, non-ferrous metals, and steel, lead the market, while the technology growth sector shows mixed performance [3][6] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to 4147.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29% to 14475.87 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.41% to 3354.82 points. The total market turnover reached approximately 2.48 trillion, indicating a good profit effect with 3742 stocks rising and 1609 falling [2][3] Sector Performance - The cyclical stocks have shown significant strength, with steel, non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, and basic chemicals rising by 4.26%, 3.53%, 2.51%, 2.41%, and 2.37% respectively. The recent policy adjustments in Shanghai's real estate sector have further boosted these sectors [6][8] - The rare earth sector also experienced a surge, with prices for various rare earth products increasing significantly post-holiday. For instance, the average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 4.16 million yuan/ton, while neodymium metal increased by 8 million yuan/ton [6][8] Investment Themes - The report identifies several key investment themes, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, robotics, consumer sectors, brokerage firms, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals. Each theme has specific core logic and follow-up points for future monitoring [9][10] - The AI application sector is highlighted for its potential growth driven by product application acceleration and technological upgrades. The commercial aerospace sector is supported by the establishment of a commercial aerospace office, while nuclear fusion and quantum technology are gaining traction due to industrialization and policy support [9][10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The report suggests a shift in market sentiment from "concept-driven" to "price-driven" profit enhancement, indicating a balanced allocation between technology and consumer sectors. The upcoming "Two Sessions" may further influence the cyclical sectors, particularly in real estate policy implementation and commodity prices [8][11] - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with the long-end bonds leading the decline. The report notes that the LPR rates remain unchanged, and the market is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment in the short term [8][11]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 24 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 1）股票市场：马年开门红，超 4000 家上涨 放量上涨，上证重回 4100。今日 A 股市场迎来马年"开门红"，三大指数集体上 涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.87%，收于 4117.41 点，重回 4100 点上方；深证成指上 涨 1.36%，收于 14291.57 点；创业板指上涨 0.99%，收于 3308.26 点。全市场上 涨个股 4003 家、下跌个股 1388 家，成交额 2.22 万亿，较上一交易日放量 11%。 市场赚钱效应集中于顺周期板块，科技成长内部呈现"硬件强、应用弱"特征。 图 1：市场放量上涨 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 顺周期领涨，消费与 AI 应用回调。今日市场板块呈现显著分化，顺周期相关领涨 行业板块， ...

Loan and Credit Analysis - In January 2026, new loans to enterprises amounted to CNY 4.45 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 330 billion[2] - Short-term loans increased by CNY 2.05 trillion, up CNY 310 billion year-on-year, indicating strong demand for operational turnover and liquidity[2] - New household loans totaled CNY 456.5 billion, a slight year-on-year increase of CNY 12.7 billion, with short-term loans up CNY 159.4 billion[2] Social Financing and Monetary Data - The total social financing (TSF) in January reached CNY 7.22 trillion, an increase of CNY 166.2 billion year-on-year, marking a historical high for the month[3] - M2 growth rate rose to 9.0%, compared to 8.5% previously, while M1 growth increased to 4.9% from 3.8%[3] - The "scissors difference" between M2 and M1 narrowed to 4.1 percentage points, down from 4.7 percentage points, indicating improved liquidity dynamics[4] Structural Insights - Government bonds contributed significantly to the increase in social financing, with net financing of CNY 976.4 billion, up CNY 283.1 billion year-on-year, accounting for 13.5% of the total social financing[3] - The structure of social financing is shifting from bank loans to direct financing, with bonds and stocks making up 47% of the total financing increase in 2025, a 5 percentage point increase from the previous year[3] - The overall credit demand remains structurally weak, with effective credit demand needing further observation for comprehensive recovery[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic acquisition of 100% equity in Ruineng Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the power semiconductor sector [5] - The acquisition is anticipated to create a complete IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) capability, aligning with the global growth trends in the power semiconductor market, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy [5] - The report projects revenue growth for the company, with adjusted forecasts for total revenue in 2025-2027 being 67.80 billion, 84.95 billion, and 108.27 billion yuan respectively, and net profit estimates being 16.15 billion, 21.52 billion, and 28.81 billion yuan [8] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 849.62 million [7] - Market capitalization: 66,704.03 million yuan [7] - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,576 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [7] - Net profit for 2023 is projected at 2,532 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 21.7% [7] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in gross margin from 55.8% in 2024 to 57.7% in 2027 [9] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 46.02 in 2024 to 22.86 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [9]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and adjustment on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to 4082.07 points, below the 4100-point mark [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.28% to 14100.19 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.57% to 3275.96 points, indicating a broad market decline with 3824 stocks falling and only 1537 rising [4] - For the entire year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 58.73% [4] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector was the only one to gain, up 0.46%, driven by advancements in commercial aerospace technology and geopolitical tensions [6] - Semiconductor equipment index rose by 1.65%, benefiting from increased demand for storage chips and AI computing power [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant decline of 3.31%, influenced by fluctuations in international precious metal prices [6] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed mixed performance, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.04% to 112.84 yuan, while the 10-year contract fell by 0.10% to 108.505 yuan [8] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 613.5 billion yuan, leading to a significant decline in short-term interest rates [8] - The market is expected to remain confident in the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy, which may support bond market recovery [8] Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 1.69%, with industrial products leading the decline, particularly in precious metals and energy [8] - The main crude oil contract dropped by 4.22% to 456.3 yuan per barrel, amid concerns over supply surplus [8] - Soybean prices surged to a one-year high, driven by supply-demand factors and weather conditions in Brazil [8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a balanced allocation in technology and consumer sectors, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals for future growth [8][12] - The report highlights several hot investment themes, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and robotics, indicating strong future potential [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the acquisition of Ruineng Semiconductor by the company is a strategically significant move that enhances its vertical integration in the power semiconductor industry, aligning with the rapid growth trends in the global power semiconductor market, particularly in the fields of new energy and electric vehicles [5][8] - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, adjusting the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 67.80 billion, 84.95 billion, and 108.27 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 16.15 billion, 21.52 billion, and 28.81 billion yuan [8] Market Performance - The company's stock performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a fluctuation with a 1-month change of -11%, a 2-month change of 0%, and a 3-month change of 11% [2] - Absolute growth rates for the company are reported as -0.38% for 1 month, 1.93% for 2 months, and 3.28% for 3 months, while relative growth rates are 1.09%, -1.09%, and 1.69% respectively [3] Financial Data and Forecasts - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,576 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to decline to 5,511 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 6,780 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 8,495 million yuan in 2026, reaching 10,827 million yuan in 2027 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2,532 million yuan, with projections of 1,179 million yuan for 2024, 1,615 million yuan for 2025, 2,152 million yuan for 2026, and 2,881 million yuan for 2027 [7] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 40.75 for 2025, decreasing to 30.59 in 2026 and 22.86 in 2027, reflecting an improving valuation as earnings grow [8] Strategic Acquisition - The acquisition of Ruineng Semiconductor is expected to provide the company with a complete IDM capability in power semiconductors, enhancing its product offerings and market competitiveness [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for synergistic benefits from the acquisition, including enhanced R&D capabilities and market access through combined customer networks [5][6]

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with the technology sector leading the gains. On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 4134.02 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.86% and the ChiNext Index by 1.32%. The total trading volume for the day was 2.16 trillion yuan, compared to 2 trillion yuan the previous day [6][7]. - The technology sector is showing strong performance, particularly in AI computing concepts, with companies like Dazhi Technology recording four consecutive trading limits. Additionally, the resource sector is also on the rise, with small metal concepts seeing gains due to a decrease in Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 [7][8]. Currency and Policy Impact - The continuous strength of the RMB is driving the spring market rally, with the USD/CNY exchange rate breaking through 6.9. This upward trend in the RMB is contributing to a relatively strong market, despite a decrease in trading volume as the Chinese New Year approaches [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the spring market will continue, with a focus on policy and event-driven sensitive themes. Key sectors expected to perform well include photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals [8]. Bond Market - The bond market is showing narrow fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.03% and the 10-year contract up by 0.02%. The People's Bank of China has conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity expectation [12][9]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains positive, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and ongoing demand for bond investments [12][9]. Commodity Market - The commodity market is mixed, with some prices rising and others falling. Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 3.66%, driven by low inventory levels, while other commodities like palm oil have seen declines [12][13]. - The report highlights that the low inventory of lithium carbonate, currently at 107,056 tons, may provide upward price momentum in the future, especially as demand is expected to grow post-holiday [12][13]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot trading varieties include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [14][15]. - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in technology and consumer sectors, with a focus on low-cost opportunities as the market continues to evolve [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The satellite internet sector is transitioning from a communication hub to a computing intermediary, with a significant increase in the number of satellites reported globally by the end of 2025 [3] - SpaceX's application to deploy up to 1 million satellites aims to create a dual barrier of "physical space + spectrum resources," forcing global space powers to reassess the strategic value of orbital assets [3] - The shift to orbital computing could alleviate the energy crisis faced by ground-based AI data centers, utilizing near-infinite solar energy and natural cooling in a vacuum environment [3] - The aggressive satellite deployment plan by SpaceX is expected to catalyze the domestic industry, enhancing China's position in the satellite internet market and accelerating the transition from policy-driven to market-driven growth [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications sector has shown a performance range from -34% to +103% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified periods [2] Related Research - The report references several studies that highlight the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the satellite internet and AI sectors, indicating a growing interest and investment potential in these areas [3] Suggested Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring several companies, including Xinke Mobile, Aerospace Huanyu, Aerospace Electronics, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the developments in the satellite internet industry [3]