退出领涨行业,消费行业尤其是白酒后来居上。因此,从时间维 酒的投资机会。 2024年05月25 F 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 地产行情结束了吗? 报告摘要 核心观点: 本次政策组合拳是 430 政治局会议精神中关于地产"去库存"的落 地,再次确认了政策已经转向,中央层面将"去库存"定为了地产 政策下一阶段的新主线。政府收购存量房并推进保租房建设的模式 在中央层面正式确定,可阶段性消化存量房地产库存,通过外力打 破房地产市场此前的负反馈预期，预计未来房价有望企稳。此外， 该模式此前已有地方率先试点积累经验，后续推广速度或快于市场 预期。 � | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 但仍需注意地产相关表述依旧在 430 政治局会议的防风险部分,"我 | | 国房地产市场供求关系迎来新变化"再次确认,因此本次政策目的 | | 或在于打破此前的负反馈，并非 2016年的涨价去库存，更不是扩 | | 大需求拉动地产投资。因此本次的房地产政策转向可能带来的投资 | | 机会将更类似与 2022 年以 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company "值得买" (300785) is "Buy" with a target price of 22.07 CNY [6][21]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's focus on "consumer content + consumer data" as its core strategy, leveraging AI to enhance its main site transformation and improve the "AIGC + e-commerce" content ecosystem, which is expected to boost content creation capacity, user growth, and engagement. The company's overseas expansion is anticipated to accelerate, positively impacting its performance and valuation. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.05 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.81 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.72, and 0.91 CNY, leading to PE ratios of 39, 29, and 23 respectively [6][21]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.45 billion CNY, an increase of 18.17% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.75 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.92% year-on-year. The gross margin was 48.37%, down 5.61 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.47%, down 1.40 percentage points year-on-year [21][29]. - The quarterly performance for Q4 2023 showed a revenue of 0.493 billion CNY, up 19.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.061 billion CNY, an increase of 3.62% year-on-year [21][29]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has established a research and development center in Chengdu to support this initiative. The report highlights the growth potential from innovative business segments, which accounted for 34.26% of total revenue in 2023, up from 27.77% in 2022 [15][26]. - The company has launched several AI-driven features in its "什么值得买" app, including an AI review bot and personalized shopping assistant, aimed at enhancing user experience and engagement [24][26]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue projections for 2024-2026 at 1.73 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.11 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 19.07%, 12.43%, and 8.50% respectively [29]. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential in the coming years [29].

⚫ 1 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 1.95% ” 数据来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 相对上证综 指收益 -6.28% -23.20% -6.45% 4.88% 44.11% 6.37% -10.18% -2.40% 数据来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 资料来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 ...

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⚫ 1 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 1.95% ” 数据来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 相对上证综 指收益 -6.28% -23.20% -6.45% 4.88% 44.11% 6.37% -10.18% -2.40% 数据来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 资料来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所 ...

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300 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 23-05 23-07 23-10 23-12 24-03 24-05 ...

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股市有风险 往后看,二季度外需对出口的支撑力度有望延续。全球经济复苏趋势明显,4 月全球制造业 PMI 录得 50.3、连续第四个月处于扩张区间,主要国家与地区均有 不同程度抬升,超过半数 PMI 处于扩张区间。作为全球产业链的主要供应端,外 需上升带动中国官方制造业 PMI 新出口订单指数 3 月录得 51.3, 4 月录得 50.6, 连续两个月处于扩张区间,结束了自 2023年 4 月以来长达 11 个月的收缩期,出 口动能增强趋势愈加明确。内需方面,设备的更新和技术改造升级对内需形成一定 支撑,有望缓解了消费疲软和房地产市场调整带来的不利影响。此外政策端持续发 力,有助于改善市场对于房地产和经济复苏的预期,5月17日央行连发三项有关 房地产的重磅通知,分别关于下调个人住房公积金贷款利率、下调个人住房贷款最 低首付款比例、取消首套住房和二套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率政策下限。随着 各项稳增长政策持续推进,积极因素累积,工业生产有望保持稳健回升态势。 ◆ MLF 等量平价续作，OMO 规模维持低量,资金面边际宽松 证券研究报告 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业 ■ 2024-03 ■ 2024-04 农副食品加工 ...

地产组合拳有望持续改善市场情绪 中航证券研究所发布 行情。此后重点跟踪：1）地产政策；2）政府债发行速度；3）基 证券研究报告 and of the comment of the series of the series of the series of the series and the series of the with 事件: 美国总统大选逐步进入关键时期,此次拜登对华加征关税背后或存在明显的政治意图。近 期拜登面临的问题较多,11 月以来与特朗普支持率的差距呈现扩大的趋势,因此拜登对转移当 下社会矛盾有较强的诉求。美国总统大选共计 538 张选举人票，故 270 票为获胜门槛。根据综 合民调网站 Race to the WH 对各州支持率选举人票的估算，截至 2024 年 5 月 17 日特朗普的 票数为 303 票，拜登获 235 票。2023 年 9 月特朗普的支持率反超拜登，之后差距不断扩大。 Joe Biden ● Donald Trump ● 270 EV to Win 证券研究报告 图2 2024年大选中认为以下议题"非常重要"的美国选民比例 资料来源：GALLUP，中航证券研究所整理 ...