宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

影石创新(688775) / 消费电子 / 新股研究报告 / 2025.05.29 AI 驱动创新引领，智能影像龙头扬帆起航 证券研究报告 核心观点 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 联系人 黄梦龙 huangml@ctsec.com | 财务指标 | 2024 年 | | --- | --- | | 销售毛利率(%) | 52.20 | | 销售净利率(%) | 17.85 | | ROE(%) | 37.07 | | 营业收入增幅(%) | 53.29 | | 净利润增幅(%) | 19.91 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.64 | | 流动比率 | 2.24 | | 速动比率 | 1.68 | | 每股经营性净现金流量 | 3.26 | | 每股净资产（元/股） | 8.84 | 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 智能影像设备领军者，创新驱动成长：公司 2015 年成立于深圳，以全景 技术为基点专注于运动相机、全景相机等智能影像设备研发、生产、销售，公 司产品不断推陈出新，2019-2024 年公司收入从 5.88 亿元增长至 5 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Rates - Since May, policy interest rates have been lowered, leading to a further easing of liquidity, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, funding rates have risen[3] - In May, the average funding rates R007 and DR007 decreased by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively[11] - The central bank's operations included a net liquidity injection of approximately 1 trillion yuan following the RRR cut, but funding rates did not decline further[13] Group 2: Government Debt Issuance - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan[34] - The total issuance of government bonds in June is projected to be nearly 2.3 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 920 billion yuan[42] - The cumulative net financing progress of treasury bonds has reached 40.1%, significantly higher than the historical average for the same period[33] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Financing - Local government debt issuance has been slower, with a total of 1.98 trillion yuan issued in the first five months of the year, which is above last year's pace but below the five-year average[40] - In June, local government debt issuance is expected to total around 9 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 4.3 billion yuan[42] - Special refinancing bonds issuance is projected to be around 400 billion yuan in June, as issuance slows to accommodate special treasury bonds[42]

证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.05.25 宠物 618 预售亮眼，需求承接一般猪价下行 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《大猪出栏增加猪价下行，贸易会谈 缓和宠食出口干扰》 2025-05-18 2. 《惜售情绪猪价震荡偏强，供应偏紧 毛鸡价格上涨》 2025-05-17 3. 《缓和宠食出口订单短期扰动，国货 高端化趋势不变》 2025-05-13 农业重点数据跟踪周报 核心观点 数据来源：wind 5 月 23 日数据，财通证券研究所 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 -27% -18% -9% 0% 8% 17% 农林牧渔 沪深300 ❖ 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险，动物疾病风险，极端灾害风险。 表 1：重点公司投资评级: 代码 公司 总市值 （亿元） 收盘价 （05.23） EPS（元） PE 投资评级 2024A 2025E 2026E 2024A 2025E 2026E 002714 牧原股份 2,158.34 39.51 3.27 3.63 ...

建筑装饰 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.05.25 4 月基建增速环比放缓，资金改善仍需等待 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -13% -5% 3% 11% 18% 建筑装饰 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 陈悦明 chenym01@ctsec.com 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 流同比改善》 2025-05-05 单击或点击此处输入文字。 ❖ 4 月基建增速环比有所放缓，建筑业订单依旧承压。根据统计局数据， 2025 年 1-4 月狭义/广义基建投资额分别同增 5.80%/10.85%，环比 1-3 月分别 持平/-0.65pct；4 月单月狭义/广义基建投资额分别同增 5.80%/9.57%，增速环 比 1-3 月分别-0.14pct/-3.02pct，基建投资增速相较于一季度有所放缓。细分来 看，2025 年 1-4 月电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资同增 25.5%，较前 值回落 0.5pct；交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资同增 3.9%，较前值提升 0.1pct； 水利、环 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is likely to support gold prices in the short term [1][6] - Recent market performance shows a significant decline in various sectors, with the SW Nonferrous Index increasing by 1.26% [4][6] - Concerns over the deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. have led to a drop in the dollar index, providing buying support for gold [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 1.26% [6] - COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 4.99% and 4.16%, respectively [6] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate, while demand is affected by high prices and slowing investment in real estate and infrastructure [6] - Aluminum production is increasing, with a slight rise in operating rates [6] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise in the short term due to increasing interest rate cut expectations [6] - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory increased by 2.32% [6] Energy Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a decline in prices for various rare earth elements [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have dropped due to high inventory levels and reduced demand [6]

Domestic Demand - New home sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand home sales decline[4] - Retail sales of passenger cars have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased[4] - Hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room have both increased, indicating recovery in the tourism market[4] External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes showing year-on-year growth[4] - U.S. imports from China have also turned positive, indicating strong support for direct exports[4] - Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on European goods may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector[4] Production and Prices - Weak terminal construction demand has led to a decline in steel prices and production rates[4] - Chemical chain products have seen price increases due to maintenance and rising oil prices[4] - Gold prices have rebounded amid geopolitical tensions, while copper and oil prices are fluctuating within a range[4]

财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 席分析师:李美岑 E S0160521120002 分析师:张洲驰 ·· S0160524070004 S /A 60524070003 025年 lli . UWLEN 国内母婴行业在政策支持、消费升级与供给变革的驱动下，呈现结构性增长机遇： 1、政策端，中央与此方政府持续推出生育补贴及降伟表育成本政策、有望推动生育率企稳回升。1从海外经验看，生育相关公共支出增加停望支持生育率回升，1980年后， 日、韩和南欧国家生育率急展下降。相比之下!(欧以及部分英语系国家的生育率出现最著的目元，这部分枢普遍先经历了家庭平均公共支出的僧长，表明外贴政策的生育率 的回升起到了一定的作用。2近年来中央球舞出台补贴、降低生养育成本等方面欧策鼓励生育，地方政府也纷纷出台生育、育儿孙、部分地区区对多家家庭会予任房外贴， 真金白银支持地方生育率提升。 2、帮求端，生育增量消费力增加、助力母婴市场在生育率下行背景下规模逆势增加：马婴市场增速超30P，家庭平均消费增返近10%更高于整体市场增速，背后是三大生育 增量解体消费意愿增加：1）生育多胎群体；当前多指占比逐步抬开，已至60+%；这 ...

计算机 / 行业专题报告 / 2025.05.18 AI 算力：数字经济的基石，大国博弈的焦点 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 陈梦笔 chenmb01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 4 月车市稳增，滴滴 L4 新车亮相》 2025-05-14 2. 《破局与增长：IDC 行业竞争战略与 市场格局重塑 》 2025-05-11 3. 《2025 年一季度总结：业绩企稳，AI 提速，加仓正当时》 2025-05-05 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -6% 8% 23% 38% 53% 计算机 沪深300 上证指数 ❖ 美国芯片管制法案体系脉络：从"全面防扩散"到"强制 AI 芯片位置 验证"。2025 年 5 月 13 日，美国商务部宣布撤销拜登政府此前发布的《人工 智能扩散规则》（AI Diffusion Rule）。同日，美国工业安全局（Bureau of Industry and Security，简称 BIS）颁布 General Proh ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a motorcycle business to an "AI + Vehicle" model, with a focus on smart driving and Robotaxi services, supported by strong capital and management backgrounds [8][14]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 89.66 billion, 102.92 billion, and 121.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 0.84 billion, 1.53 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan [8][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through four stages: starting with motorcycles, exploring new energy, undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, and now embracing the "AI + Vehicle" transformation [14]. - Its core business includes terminal operations (motorcycles and vehicles) and technology operations (smart driving solutions) [14][19]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant recovery in its automotive business, with a 117% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in Q1 2025 [23][24]. - The motorcycle business has maintained a stable cash flow, with a gross margin of 12.1% in 2023, showing an upward trend [26][29]. Smart Driving and Technology - The report highlights the importance of smart driving technology, which is categorized into Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and higher-level autonomous driving [39][41]. - The domestic policy environment is supportive of the autonomous driving industry, with multiple regulations and incentives in place to promote development [43][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenues of 89.66 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.45% [7][8]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 110.17% in 2025 [7]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to leverage partnerships with major players like Geely and AI firms to enhance its technology capabilities and market reach [8][19]. - The report notes that the company’s gross margin is currently below the average of comparable companies, but improvements are anticipated as AI-related businesses develop [32].