1. 《转债主动调整冷却期，如何定价？—— 宏图转债调整冷却期点评》 2025-12- 29 2. 《布局春躁，开门红可期——1 月转债市 场展望》 2025-12-28 3. 《信用 | 把握跨年前的窗口 》 2025- 12-28 2025：非典型震荡市——利率债年度复盘 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.12.30 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 ❖ 2025 年是极不寻常的震荡市，利率调整幅度有限、信用是牛市，但纯债 产品净值中位数几乎是历史低点。有哪些启示？第一，经济寻底过程中不 会是简单的单边趋势，货币财政形成合力的阶段，债市的确要有一定敬畏； 第二，利率越低、货币政策的约束越来越多，审慎管理对利率的边界有严 格控制；第三，低利率环境下机构行为有深刻变化，大类资产比价对债券 的影响会被放大，纯粹的配置盘越来越少，供需逻辑越来越重要；第四， ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 China Financial Stability Report presents a satisfactory outcome. The future prudential management system will continue to play a role. The central bank aims to keep interest rates stable and increase the stock market volume, which reduces the expectation of future interest rate cuts. However, from a macro perspective, a stable low - interest - rate environment remains the most widely accepted option during the phase of government leveraging up, household de - leveraging, and enterprise stable leveraging [3]. - The report positively evaluates the current operation of China's financial industry, and the key tasks of the previous year have achieved phased results. The next - stage focus is on improving the comprehensive macro - prudential management system, with the three key tasks being debt resolution, reform and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions, and macro - prudential management of real - estate finance [4]. - Attention should be paid to the risk - resistance ability of the banking industry. Although the capital adequacy ratio seems to have increased, the pressure test results show a steeper decline in capital adequacy ratio and a steeper increase in non - performing loan ratio. The key to future macro - economy is to boost the leveraging willingness of enterprises and households [5]. Section Summaries 1. Evaluation more positive, focus on the construction and coordination of risk - prevention system - The 2025 report positively evaluates the operation of the financial industry, deletes the issue of insufficient demand mentioned in the previous two years, and focuses on the coordinated construction of the risk - prevention system. The three key tasks remain the same, but the macro - prudential management of real - estate finance is placed last [9]. - The high - level is satisfied with the 2024 financial risk - prevention results. The key tasks of the previous year have achieved phased results. The 2025 report's structure is basically the same as that of 2024, with a reduced number of columns and adjusted themes [10]. - The report emphasizes the coordination between risk prevention and other fields, and expands the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [11]. 2. "Shape can be formed, adjustable", interest rates to be stable - The central bank aims to keep interest rates stable, focusing on implementing existing policies and reducing the expectation of future interest rate cuts. The goal of "liberalization" in interest - rate market reform has been basically achieved, but "shape formation" and "adjustability" still face challenges [13]. - In 2024, the central bank implemented a series of measures to strengthen interest - rate policy implementation. Currently, the pressure on the net interest margin of banks continues to rise, especially for small and medium - sized banks [14]. - Insurance industry reform focuses on reducing liability - side costs, business expenses, and disposing of high - risk institutions. The solvency of the insurance industry is declining [18]. 3. The stock market needs to increase volume - The 2025 report pays more attention to the equity market. The core of market - value management is to guide listed companies to focus on their investment value and increase investor returns. The next - stage work focuses on four areas [21]. - Increasing the stock market volume is beneficial for cultivating a long - bull market environment. The government promotes the entry of long - term funds into the market, and the central bank coordinates macro - policy regulation [24]. 4. Areas that need key attention 4.1 The risk - resistance ability of banks has decreased - In 2024, the capital adequacy, asset quality, risk - compensation ability, and liquidity of commercial banks improved marginally. However, the pressure test results show that the risk - resistance ability of 23 participating banks has declined [26][30]. - Compared with the 2024 report, the 2025 report continues and develops the key points of banking reform, with more specific directions and additional measures [36]. 4.2 The macro - leverage ratios of different sectors are diverging - In 2024, China's macro - leverage ratio increased, but the leverage ratio structure continued to optimize. The government sector became the main leverager, the non - financial enterprise sector's leveraging speed slowed down, and the household sector's leverage ratio decreased slightly [39]. - Historically, the economic recovery requires the cooperation of household and enterprise leveraging. Currently, boosting the leveraging willingness of enterprises and households is crucial for economic recovery [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Important news: The scale of ETFs exceeded 6 trillion yuan for the first time; the number of fund issuances this year reached the second - highest in history; the IPO financing amount of Hong Kong stocks ranked first globally [2]. - Market review: From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the major broad - based indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 1.88%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4657.24, up 1.95%; most overseas indices also rose [2][14]. - Fund market review: Most active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, with a median interval return of 2.40%. Manufacturing and technology - themed funds performed outstandingly [2]. - ETF fund statistics: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance this week were manufacturing (5.01%), cyclical (3.72%), and commodity futures (3.41%) theme ETFs. There were 336 ETFs with net capital inflows and 703 with net outflows [2]. - Fund market dynamics: This week, 54 public funds had new fund managers, 65 new public funds were established, with a combined issuance share of 278.94 billion shares, and 35 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. As of December 28, 2025, there were 38 public funds waiting to be issued [2]. - Equity fund issuance tracking: From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the issuance scale of equity funds reached 11.864 billion yuan, an increase of 5.014 billion yuan compared with last week. There were still 229 newly - issued funds in the position - building period, and it is estimated that 72.691 billion yuan of funds have not been invested yet [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - International silver futures prices approached $80 per ounce, and the prices of various precious metal futures reached new highs. Gold prices soared by over 70% this year, and silver prices rose by over 170%. Platinum futures prices also reached a record high, and New York copper prices continued to rise [6]. - In 2025, public REITs developed rapidly. By mid - December, nearly 80 products had been issued, with a total market value exceeding 220 billion yuan, covering ten major fields. The secondary - market performance showed a "first - rising - then - falling" trend [6][7]. - On December 23, 2025, E Fund's sales subsidiary, E Fund Wealth, officially started operations. Huatai - PineBridge Fund and GF Fund also had relevant developments in their subsidiaries [7]. - On December 26, 2025, the national venture capital guidance fund was officially launched, using over - long - term special treasury bonds, with 100 billion yuan of fiscal investment at the national level, aiming to leverage a trillion - yuan capital scale [8]. 1.2 Product Highlights - On December 23, 2025, the net subscription amount of bond ETFs was close to 20 billion yuan, and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were the main targets for capital addition [8]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total number of ETFs in the market reached 1391, with a total scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, officially exceeding the 6 - trillion - yuan mark [9]. - As of December 25, 2025, the number of fund issuances this year reached 1498, the second - highest in history. Index funds and FOF products were popular [10][11]. 1.3 Overseas/Overseas Markets - On December 29, 2025, China Asset Management's two flagship ETFs will be listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand through DRs, which is an important step in the cooperation between Chinese and Thai capital markets [12]. - In 2025, the IPO financing amount of Hong Kong stocks ranked first globally. From January to November, the average daily trading volume of the spot market increased by 43% year - on - year. As of December 19, 106 companies were listed, with a total financing of 274.6 billion Hong Kong dollars [13]. 2. Market Review - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, major broad - based indices in the A - share market rose. Overseas, most indices also showed an upward trend [2][14]. - This week, the non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries led the gains, while the commercial retail, coal, and banking industries were among the top decliners [16]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term, manufacturing and technology - themed funds performed well; in the medium - term, cyclical and manufacturing - themed funds were in the forefront; in the long - term, technology and manufacturing - themed funds were outstanding [18]. - This week, most active equity funds achieved positive returns, and the median interval return was 2.40%. Manufacturing and technology - themed funds had the highest median interval returns [20][21]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - This week, the top - performing active equity fund was the Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Strong Country Industry Fund, with an interval return of 15.69% [23][24]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - This week, the top three ETF categories in terms of interval return were manufacturing, cyclical, and commodity futures theme ETFs [25]. - In the past month, the top three were also cyclical, manufacturing, and commodity futures theme ETFs [25]. 4.2 ETF Capital Flow Statistics - This week, the top categories with net capital inflows were bonds, A - share broad - based, and commodity futures ETFs, while manufacturing ETFs had the largest net outflows [29]. - In the past month, A - share broad - based, bonds, and technology ETFs had the largest net inflows, while manufacturing ETFs had the largest net outflows [29]. - This week, 336 ETFs had net capital inflows, and 703 had net outflows. The top three in terms of net inflows were the Yin Hua CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of net outflows were the HFT CSI Short - Term Financing Bond ETF, etc. [31]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - For non - QDII ETFs, as of December 26, 2025, the top three in terms of premium rate were the GF Hang Seng Index Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of discount rate were the Founder Fubon CSI 500 ETF, etc. [33][34]. - For QDII ETFs, as of December 25, 2025, the top three in terms of premium rate were the Invesco Great Wall NASDAQ Technology Market Value - Weighted ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of discount rate were the China Merchants Li An Emerging Asia Select ETF, etc. [34][35]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - This week, 54 public funds had new fund managers, involving 50 fund managers from 31 fund management companies. The top two fund management companies with the most new fund manager appointments were Penghua Fund and GF Fund [36]. - This week, 77 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 57 fund managers from 33 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies with the most departures were Penghua Fund, E Fund, and Chuangjin Hexin Fund [37]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds This Week - This week, 65 new public funds were established, with a combined issuance share of 278.94 billion shares. The most common types were partial - stock hybrid and secondary bond funds. GF Fund had the largest combined issuance share [39]. 5.3 Funds First Issued This Week - This week, 35 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. GF Fund had the most newly issued funds, and the most common type was partial - stock hybrid funds [41][42]. 5.4 Funds to Be Issued - As of December 28, 2025, there were 38 public funds waiting to be issued, including 13 partial - stock hybrid, 10 passive index, 7 hybrid FOF, etc. GF Fund had the most funds to be issued [45]. 5.5 Equity Fund Issuance Tracking - This week, the issuance scale of equity funds reached 11.864 billion yuan, an increase of 5.014 billion yuan compared with last week [47]. - Currently, there are 229 newly - issued funds in the position - building period, 46.29% of which have a position - building ratio of less than 5%, and it is estimated that 72.691 billion yuan of funds have not been invested yet [50]. - After the establishment and position - building of these funds, the top three industries with the largest capital increments are electronics, power equipment and new energy, and machinery [53]. - For the funds that have completed the fundraising, the top three industries with the largest capital increments are electronics, food and beverage, and machinery [55].

r and and and the start ■ 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 / 2025.12.28 核心观点 ❖ 库存视角来看: 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 liants@ctsec.com 工业企业利润增速为何回落: 11 月 , 工业经营量价同降、利润率增速回落, � 工业利润增速的"恶化"，除了利润率的掣肘，与基数也有较大关系，这一点 延续了 10 月的态势。 分结构来看: � � 上游采矿业"增利+增收+大幅增率",与上个月相比利润出现大幅提升,营收 增速也由负转正。非金属矿采选营是核心支撑,可能受到 11 月《关于增强消 费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》的拉动。 ❖ 上游原材料工业"增收+增利+不增率",利润率最差。企业处于"控产维利" 阶段,其背后可能是由于 11 月生产经济指标疲弱、旺季需求恢复有限和多地 环保限产等多因素综合影响的结果。 中游中间品制造业掣肘于 PPI，呈现"不增利+不增收+小幅增率"。"原材料 � -产成品"价格剪刀差不断拉大，依旧压制了中游环节的利润空间。装备制造 业仍然受益于企业的出海和产业链的重 ...

❖ 2026 年社融、M2 的预测? 参考"社会融资规模、货币供应量增长与名义经济增速基本匹配"，若是名义 GDP4.5%附近，考虑到"基本匹配"原则下"社融-名义 GDP 同比"基本 在 3%附近，预计社会融资增速在 7.5%附近；参考"保持社会融资规模、货 币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"，若是经济增速预期 目标仍在 5%附近，价格预期目标在 2%附近，和 2025 年基本持平，考虑到 2025 年年度社融增速或在 8.1%附近，以及央行"未来金融总量的增速下降 是自然的"，因此 2026 年社融增速会低于 8.1%，但是高于 7%；我们预测 2026 年社融增速 7.6%，对应 2026 年社融新增 33.5 万亿元附近。 M2 部分，考虑到 2026 年可能是信贷占比弱，直接融资占比偏高的社会融资 格局，贷款派生存款能力下降，因此（社融-M2）剪刀差将较当前继续走扩， 参照往年或在 0.5%附近，对标前期的 2026 年社融预测值，预计 2026 年 M2 增速或在 7.1%附近。 ❖ 2026 年社融分项的预测？ 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.12.26 核心观点 ❖ ...

Group 1: Retail and Service Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the hotel and duty-free sectors, suggesting that the hotel prices have gradually increased since the second half of this year, with a recommendation to focus on hotel stocks such as Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [6][12][17] - Duty-free sales are showing signs of bottoming out, with new policies implemented to expand the range of duty-free products and eligible consumers, leading to a significant increase in sales figures [12][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies, particularly in the context of the ice and snow economy, silver-haired economy, and sports events, recommending investments in companies like Changbai Mountain and Sanchuan Tourism [26][28][29] Group 2: AI Applications in Various Industries - The report discusses the acceleration of AI applications in the education and human resources sectors, with companies like Keri International and Beijing Renli leveraging AI to enhance recruitment efficiency [39][44] - AI's integration into 3D printing and e-commerce is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Huina Technology and Xiaogoods City, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions through full-chain penetration [6][39] - The report notes that AI applications are driving significant changes in operational efficiency and commercial opportunities across various sectors, particularly in human resources [39][44] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with domestic brands showing strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [6][32] - The report identifies key players in the beauty sector, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shanghai Jahwa, while also suggesting a focus on high-growth segments within the industry [6][32] - The medical beauty sector is under pressure but is seeing consolidation and innovation, with recommendations for companies like Jinbo Biological and Kedi-B [6][32] Group 4: Jewelry and Precious Metals - The jewelry sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on overseas expansion as a second growth curve, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-value jewelry products and the impact of new tax regulations on the market dynamics [6][32] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is witnessing a shift, with a focus on leading brands expanding their store counts and product categories, particularly in the tea and dining segments [32][38] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the restaurant industry, noting the resilience of Western fast food and the growth of Chinese casual dining brands [32][38]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Technology sector, indicating a "slow bull" market trend for 2026, driven by improved liquidity and AI advancements [19][29]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown significant volatility since its inception, with a notable recovery in 2025, where it outperformed major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Nasdaq [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of earnings growth as a foundation for index performance, with a projected revenue growth of 13.6% and a non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.7% for 2025 [16][17]. - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in sectors such as AI applications, autonomous technology, and consumer internet, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate earnings upgrades and AI progress [27][33]. Summary by Sections Review and Retrospective: What Happened in 2025? - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a 24% increase in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18% [10]. - Major contributing factors included a favorable liquidity environment due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies and strong earnings from leading companies [19][22]. Industry and Trends: Which Sub-sectors Are Worth Watching? - AI applications are highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements in technology and commercialization expected to drive growth [33]. - The report also discusses the importance of the gaming sector and the autonomous driving market, indicating a shift towards head-to-head competition in L2+ and L4 technologies [33]. Views and Strategies: What Certainty Opportunities Can Be Seen in 2026? - The report suggests that identifying companies with upward earnings revisions and significant AI developments will be crucial for investment strategies in 2026 [27][29]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index's performance is influenced by both micro and macro factors, with a strong emphasis on the earnings potential of constituent companies [29]. Key Stocks: Structurally Viewing Stocks and Grasping Quality Targets - The report identifies top-performing stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor, JD Health, and Alibaba, which have shown significant price increases due to positive earnings revisions and AI advancements [23][27]. - The focus for 2026 will be on finding stocks with potential for earnings surprises and strong AI progress [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The possibility of a trend - based economic recovery in 2026 is low. To cope with uncertainties, monetary policy still needs to have aggregate - based loosening. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts next year, and the bond market can be optimistic. In the short term, the bond market adjustment may have basically ended, and the bond market pressure in the first quarter of next year may be lower than expected. The bond market interest rate may break through the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Economic Goal - The economic growth target for next year may remain at around 5%, but there are still many old problems and new challenges, and it will be difficult to achieve [6]. Fiscal Policy - Compared with last year, the expression of fiscal policy has weakened. The deficit rate may remain at 4%, with 5 trillion yuan in new special bonds, 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds. Considering macro uncertainties, some new special bonds may be revitalized in the second half of the year. The net financing of government bonds may be about 1.5 trillion yuan more than this year [7]. Local Finance - Changing from "increasing local autonomous financial resources" to "attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties" does not provide more incremental information [8]. Debt Resolution - Debt resolution remains the focus of local work next year. The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to take the initiative to resolve debts, and not allowing illegal new implicit debts, and also requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises [10]. Monetary Policy - The tone of monetary policy is still "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier for reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has changed from "opportunistically" to "flexibly and efficiently". The central bank may not conduct aggregate - based loosening based on financial data changes but anchor economic growth, inflation, and boosting social confidence. There may be structural policies to support key areas. The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, one at the beginning of next year [11]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The expression of expanding domestic demand has weakened. Although it mentions "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", the "optimization - based" means seem insufficient. "Continuing to play the role of new policy - based tools" and "deeply promoting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries" may be important measures next year [12]. Real Estate - In the arrangement of key work, the priority of real estate has dropped, and the expression has also weakened. The urgency of real - estate work has decreased [13]. Anti - Involution - Anti - involution continues to be steadily promoted. It emphasizes that anti - involution needs to be based on the construction of a national unified market. Regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies may reduce duplicate production capacity initiated by local governments, but demand will also be affected, and price recovery may face certain resistance [14]. Reform of Small and Medium - sized Financial Institutions - The reform of small and medium - sized financial institutions will accelerate mergers. The trend of large institutions merging small and medium - sized ones is clear. More than 350 small and medium - sized banks have exited the market this year, and state - owned large banks have participated in integration activities [15]. Policy Rhythm - The demand for policies to be implemented earlier has weakened, and the possibility of a good start in the first quarter of next year needs further observation [16].

Group 1: Automotive Market Overview - In November, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, aligning with the initial forecast of a "low start, medium growth, and stable end" trend for the year [5][11][20] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 21.483 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The growth rate fluctuated throughout the year, with a notable slowdown in the fourth quarter due to high base effects from the previous year [5][11][20] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has been a significant driver for growth, with over 11.2 million applications for subsidies by the end of October, although the average daily subsidy scale dropped to 30,000 units in November due to the suspension of subsidies in various regions [5][11][20] Group 2: Intelligent Driving Developments - NVIDIA has officially open-sourced its new Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model, Alpamayo-R1, marking a significant shift in autonomous driving technology from mere behavior imitation to deeper causal reasoning [6][33] - The model's dataset, approximately 100TB in size, has been uploaded to the open-source community, indicating a move towards more accessible high-end autonomous driving models [6][33] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in automotive intelligence and leading software capabilities, including Rui Ming Technology, Dao Tong Technology, Hei Zhi Ma Intelligent, Horizon Robotics, and others [8][39]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, emphasizing the potential for growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly in emerging markets and through the development of new product categories [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The home appliance sector has shown varied performance in 2025, with white goods yielding a total return of +1% but underperforming against the CSI 300 by -19% due to high base effects and market competition [11]. - Small appliances have performed well with a +12% return, indicating a shift from scale expansion to value creation, supported by new subsidy policies [11]. - The components sector has excelled with a +70% return, benefiting from investments in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [11]. Group 2: Domestic and International Sales - Domestic sales have faced pressure due to tightening national subsidies, with expected growth rates for major appliances showing mixed results, while small appliances have fared better [5][38]. - Internationally, emerging markets have outperformed, with a notable recovery in export orders as tariff impacts begin to stabilize [41][42]. Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The report highlights a continuous upgrade in product structure, with an increasing share of high-end products contributing to profit margins [5][44]. - New product categories such as smart glasses, drones, and UV printers are expected to create new growth opportunities, driven by consumer demand for innovative and personalized experiences [5][10]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies as they represent assets with significant growth potential, particularly in the context of favorable U.S. market conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts [5][44]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Haier Smart Home, Hisense, TCL Electronics, and Ecovacs, among others [5][44].