计算机 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2025.03.23 AI 投资"软硬兼施"，优选强业绩韧性资产 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 分析师 李宇轩 SAC 证书编号：S0160524080001 liyx02@ctsec.com ❖ AI 投资把握"软硬兼施"，优选强业绩韧性资产。2024 年 9 月底，政策 端迎来强劲支撑，货币和财政政策公共发力，推动计算机板块实现触底反弹。 2025 年 2 月，在以 DeepSeek 为代表的中国科技成果涌现下，中国科技发展的 信心更加坚定，计算机板块迎来了百花齐放的精彩时刻，这与我们 2024 年 11 月发表的《2025 年投资策略：多维共振，精彩纷呈》形成了呼应。站在当下， 在巨头资本开支的牵引下，在国产大模型和国产算力的推动下，我们认为 AI 投资思路将从"先硬后软"转向"软硬兼施"，在节奏切向财报季的阶段，应 优先把握强业绩韧性的优质资产。 ❖ 投资建议：巨头资本开支确定性更强，硬件侧有望在报表端更快兑现，建议 关注 AI 基座板块，软件侧受益于 AI ...

中材国际(600970)/ 专业工程/ 公司点评/ 2025.03.25 业绩稳中有增，运维业务占比提升 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-25 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.07 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.34 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.42 | 最近 12 月市场表现 相关报告 1. 《业绩符合预期，矿山运维新签保持 高增 》 2024-10-26 2. 《业绩稳中有增，经营现金流同比改 善》 2024-08-25 3. 《境外新签快速增长，毛利率及现金 流修复》 2024-04-30 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 45799 | 46127 | 47816 | 49862 | 52251 | | 收入增长率(%) | 6.94 | 0.72 | 3.66 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights the innovative method of "Sampling-based Search" for optimizing model performance during the inference phase, which significantly enhances reasoning accuracy in complex tasks [7][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of self-verification mechanisms in selecting optimal solutions from a wide range of candidate answers generated through random sampling [13][18]. - The findings suggest that the effectiveness of reasoning is positively correlated with the scale of sampling, indicating that increasing the number of samples improves the probability of generating correct solutions [15][27]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sampling-based Search and Post-training Scaling - The research introduces a novel approach to inference-time computation that optimizes model performance through a sampling-based search strategy [10]. - The core mechanism involves generating a large number of candidate solutions and filtering them through a self-verification process to retain the best options, thereby improving reasoning precision [7][10]. - Experimental results show that even basic random sampling combined with self-verification can outperform specialized models in challenging benchmark tests [10][15]. Section 1.1: Self-verification Mechanism - The self-verification mechanism operates on the principle of "broad sampling and precise filtering," allowing the model to identify the most accurate solutions from a diverse set of candidates [13][20]. - The process includes a probability coverage mechanism that enhances the likelihood of capturing correct answers through extensive exploration of the solution space [13][14]. Section 1.2: Enhancing Sampling Quality - Two strategies are identified to improve the quality of sampling: direct comparison of candidate solutions to locate errors and task-specific rewriting of outputs for better verification [20][18]. - These strategies aim to enhance the model's ability to identify discrepancies and improve the overall accuracy of the generated solutions [20][18]. Section 2: Scaling Law and Multi-linear Narratives - The report discusses the current advancements in model scaling achieved through breakthroughs in post-training and inference phases, highlighting the potential of sampling-based search as a scalable solution [24]. - It notes that the theoretical limits of brute-force search are only constrained by computational resources, making it a unique and independent scaling method [24]. Section 3: Experimental Validation - The report presents data showing a significant positive correlation between the effectiveness of reasoning and the scale of sampling, reinforcing the dual optimization effect of generating and filtering solutions [15][27]. - The findings indicate that as the number of samples increases, both the probability of generating correct solutions and the rigor of those solutions improve [15][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 5.121 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit of 1.645 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities and has made significant investments in research and development, with R&D expenses reaching 1.696 billion yuan, a 15.16% increase year-on-year [4] - The company has successfully upgraded its WPS product line and expanded its user base, with 41.7 million paid personal users in China, a growth of 17.49% [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.205 billion yuan, 7.543 billion yuan, and 9.221 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.915 billion yuan, 2.356 billion yuan, and 2.859 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 85.14% and a net profit margin of 32.13%, reflecting an improvement in operational efficiency [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 3.56 yuan in 2024 to 6.18 yuan in 2027 [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 80.45 in 2024 to 54.86 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [2] Business Development Highlights - The company has integrated AI features into its WPS personal and enterprise products, enhancing productivity and collaboration [4] - The WPS 365 business segment has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 149.33% [4] - The company has a strong focus on expanding its overseas market, with 1.83 million yuan in revenue from international WPS personal business [4]

毛利率承压现金流大幅好转，海外订单快速增长 证券研究报告 江河集团(601886) / 装修装饰Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.03.20 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 5.69 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.33 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.49 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.33 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -31% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 江河集团 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 陈悦明 chenym01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《收入订单稳健增长，现金流持续改 善》 2024-10-30 2. 《经营稳中有增，海外和 BIPV 渐成 新增长极》 2024-08-30 3. 《业绩符合预期，BIPV 业务开始放 量》 2024-03-30 公司点评/证券研究报告 | 公司财务报表及指标预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, reflecting the current economic uncertainties and anticipated monetary policy adjustments [5][11]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% and will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, reducing the monthly limit for U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion [3][11]. - The economic outlook has been described as increasingly uncertain, with the Fed's forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 being significantly downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7% [21][23]. - Employment conditions remain stable, but inflation is expected to experience a temporary rebound, with the PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7% for 2025 [15][18]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Fed will continue to pause interest rate cuts, with potential for two rate cuts in 2025 as indicated by the dot plot [3][11]. - The statement from the Fed included new language about increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and removed previous language about balance in employment and inflation [11][12]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting a slight increase in joblessness [15][18]. - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased to its lowest level since May 2021, indicating progress in controlling inflation [19]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices rose, and the probability of maintaining interest rates in May increased to 80.5% [24]. - The report suggests that the market may underestimate the extent of potential rate cuts, indicating that the Fed could implement more aggressive easing measures [5][24].

宏观月报 / 2025.03.20 ——3 月美联储议息会议解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《降息"急停"，不符"上意"——1 月美联储议息会议解读》 2025-01-30 2. 《降息节奏调慢——12 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-12-19 3.《降息步伐暂缓——11 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-11-08 4. 《降息步入"快车道"——9 月美联 储议息会议解读》 2024-09-19 5. 《降息箭在弦上——7 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-08-01 核心观点 ❖ 继续暂停降息，缩表步伐放缓。本次议息会议中，美联储决定继续暂停降 息，并按原有节奏执行缩表。不过，从 4 月开始，美联储将开始放缓缩表步 伐，将每月美债减持上限从 250 亿美元放缓至 50 亿美元。3 月所公布的点阵 图显示，年内或有 2 次降息。本次会议声明中，新增"经济前景不确定性增加" 的表述，并删除了"就业与通胀大致平衡"。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示， 近期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched the groundbreaking Super e platform, which includes advancements such as ultra-fast charging batteries, a 30,000 RPM motor, and a new generation of automotive-grade silicon carbide power chips, marking a comprehensive upgrade of its core technologies [5] - The Super e platform is expected to boost sales with the pre-sale of models Han L and Tang L, priced between 270,000 to 360,000 CNY and set to officially launch in April [5] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 38.615 billion CNY in 2024, 48.334 billion CNY in 2025, and 57.409 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.27, 24.18, and 20.36 respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 424.06 billion CNY in 2022 to 905.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 96.20% in 2022, 42.04% in 2023, and projected 18.28% in 2025 [4][6] - Net profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 16.622 billion CNY in 2022 to 48.334 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 445.86% in 2022 and 25.17% in 2025 [4][6] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from 5.71 CNY in 2022 to 15.90 CNY in 2025, indicating strong earnings growth [4][6] Market Performance - The company's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 12%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have increased by 6% and 24% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoints - The long-term value of leading companies in the maternal and child healthcare sector is expected to increase due to optimistic expectations from the expansion of fertility policies in Hohhot City to other provinces [5][17] - The current TTM-PE of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 42.03 times, which is 68% higher than the historical low of 25 times, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to the market [5][8] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the maternal and child healthcare sector, such as Jinxin Reproductive, Weisi Medical, and David Medical, due to the anticipated increase in newborn numbers and related healthcare services [5][17] Industry Performance Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector outperformed the CSI 300 index with a weekly increase of 1.77%, ranking 12th among 27 sub-industries [12][11] - The healthcare industry showed a reasonable valuation with a premium of 228% over the CSI 300, which is lower than the average premium of 253% over the past decade [5][8] - The medical commercial sector led the gains within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, rising by 6.44% [12][11] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of fertility policies as a key driver for consumption growth, suggesting that various local policies will enhance the long-term valuation of maternal and child healthcare companies [5][17] - It is recommended to pay attention to innovative pharmaceutical companies with true innovation capabilities, as they are expected to have greater valuation elasticity [5][17] - The report also highlights opportunities in the innovative drug industry chain and AI's long-term impact on the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that high-tech medical companies will be favored by the market [5][17] Industry Dynamics - BMS's CAR-T therapy received EU approval for expanded indications, showcasing the ongoing advancements in innovative therapies [17] - The first PROTAC molecule demonstrated clinical benefits in a phase III trial, indicating progress in targeted therapies [18] - A new treatment for resistant hypertension showed significant blood pressure reduction in clinical trials, reflecting advancements in hypertension management [21][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to maintain a high growth target for 2025, aiming for revenue and net profit growth of no less than 20% [6] - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing its market presence, with significant growth in various beverage categories [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 11.26 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.84 billion yuan - 2025E: 20.73 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.9%) - 2026E: 26.27 billion yuan (growth rate of 26.7%) - 2027E: 32.96 billion yuan (growth rate of 25.4%) [5][7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 2.04 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.33 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.34 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.3%) - 2026E: 5.64 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.0%) - 2027E: 7.20 billion yuan (growth rate of 27.7%) [5][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2023A: 3.92 yuan - 2024A: 6.40 yuan - 2025E: 8.34 yuan - 2026E: 10.84 yuan - 2027E: 13.84 yuan [5][7] - Profitability Metrics: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 32.3% in 2023A to 55.3% in 2027E [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023A to 47.4% in 2027E [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company has expanded its distribution network, with 3,193 distributors and nearly 4 million active terminals by the end of 2024, an increase of 212 distributors and 600,000 terminals from 2023 [6] - The electrolyte beverage segment has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 280.4% year-on-year in 2024 [6] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings in coffee and tea beverages [6]