全年社零+3.7%，稳健增长，提振政策显效 商贸零售 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2026.01.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -12% -4% 3% 10% 18% 25% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《社零+1.3%，商品消费略有降速》 2025-12-16 2. 《商社 2026 年年度策略报告》 2025- 12-13 3. 《餐饮增速转正，汽车、石油拖累社零大 盘》 2025-11-17 | 图 | 1： | 月度社零总额和当月同比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 城镇与乡村社零增速 3 | | 图 | 3： | 社零中商品零售与餐饮增速 3 | | 图 | 4： | 月度限额以上单位消费品零售额和当月同比 4 | | 图 | 5： | 限额以上商品零售增速 4 | | 图 | 6： | 限额以上餐饮收入增速 4 | | 图 | 7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2026.01.20 核心观点 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 基金 | 美国债基规模为何持续扩张？ 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《高估值新常态，延续高胜率+正凸性》 2026-01-18 2. 《信用 | 二永债还能维持强势吗？ 》 2026-01-18 3. 《利率 | 把握新老券之间的结构性机会》 2026-01-18 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 自 1924 年美国首只开放式基金问世以来，美国公募基金行业已历经 逾一个世纪的演进。债券型基金于 20 世纪 80 年代步入成长期，在四 十余年的跨度中历经多轮利率周期的洗礼。其中，2011-2016 年长周 期低利率环境，为研判我国当下的债券投资路径提供了不可或缺的历 史范本与经验映射。 ❖ 美国低利率的四步演绎：快速下行阶段（2011.1-2011.9），利率快速下行 带来的资本利得支撑债基收益率上行，信用也还没有开始下沉，只是 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - In January 2026, the passenger car market and the new energy vehicle market showed weak performance due to market policies. According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 11 were 328,000 units, down 32% year-on-year and 42% month-on-month; among these, new energy vehicle retail sales were 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and 67% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 35.5% for new energy vehicles [4] - The decline in sales is attributed to policies falling short of expectations. The reduction in purchase tax exemptions and the proportional subsidies have increased costs for mid-to-low-end vehicles, leading to a stronger consumer wait-and-see sentiment. This has resulted in a shift back to traditional fuel vehicles, and the anticipated demand release in January did not materialize [4] - The weakening demand for passenger cars is not necessarily negative, as it allows for clearer visibility of the competitive landscape in the mid-to-low-end market. The current market is characterized by a high preference for cost-effectiveness, and the focus remains on the new car cycle, with expectations for a surge in new car launches around the Beijing Auto Show in late April [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The passenger car market is currently in a seasonal downturn, with a significant drop in sales figures for both traditional and new energy vehicles [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the existing strategy for the automotive sector, focusing on: 1. **High-end Market**: Recommend companies with a strong brand and clear competitive advantages, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Xiaomi Group, while paying attention to the new car cycle of BAIC Blue Valley [4] 2. **Intelligent Vehicles**: Highlighting the importance of smart technology in the automotive sector, with a core recommendation for XPeng Motors [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: While acknowledging the long process of overseas expansion, BYD is recommended for its potential contributions from international markets [4]

Air Conditioning - Gree's main brand maintains a leading position with a 36.15% online market share, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while offline market share decreased by 9.25 percentage points[12] - The online sales of Gree air conditioners reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.74%, while offline sales were 300 million yuan, down 66.42%[12] - The newly launched Jinghong air conditioner targets the cost-effective engineering machine and online retail market, achieving an online market share of 5.51%[16] Refrigerators - Jinghong refrigerator's online sales reached 994,500 yuan, down 66.66% year-on-year, and offline sales were 768,000 yuan, down 44.94%[22] - Jinghong refrigerator's online market share is 0.05%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, while offline market share is 0.06%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points[22] Washing Machines - Gree washing machines saw online sales increase by 940.44% year-on-year, reaching 3.7757 million yuan, while offline sales rose by 150.12% to 190,800 yuan[24] - The online market share for Gree washing machines is 0.17%, up 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, and offline market share is 0.02%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points[24] Overseas Expansion - Gree's overseas revenue reached 16.335 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%[27] - The company has established a multi-brand strategy with brands like "GREE," "TOSOT," and "KINGHOME," covering over 190 countries and regions[27]

Group 1 - Gree Electric Appliances is actively diversifying its brand portfolio and leveraging multiple product categories to support long-term growth [7][11] - The company's main brand maintains a strong market position in air conditioning, with an online market share of 36.15%, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in offline market share [12][19] - Gree's sub-brand, Jinghong, is positioned to capture the low-end market, achieving an online market share of 5.51% in the air conditioning segment [16][18] Group 2 - Jinghong refrigerators focus on high-end preservation technology, but sales performance remains weak, with online sales down 66.66% year-on-year [22][23] - Gree's washing machines have seen significant growth, with online sales increasing by 940.44% year-on-year, particularly in the high-end market segment [24][26] - The company has expanded its overseas strategy, achieving a 10.19% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, with products now available in over 190 countries [27][29] Group 3 - The home appliance sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall market down 0.1% recently, while specific segments like black goods have seen gains [30][32] - Recent data indicates a decline in sales for major appliances, with year-on-year decreases in categories such as air conditioning and refrigerators [43][58] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to local markets and developing products suited for extreme climates to enhance competitiveness [29][39]

Economic Overview - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down from 1.3% in the previous month[3] - The GDP growth rate for Q4 was 4.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3, achieving the annual GDP growth target[4] Production and Investment - December's industrial added value rose by 5.2% year-on-year, compared to 4.8% in the previous month, aligning with the PMI trends[6] - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 15.0% year-on-year, widening by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, with manufacturing, broad infrastructure, and real estate investments decreasing by 10.5%, 16.0%, and 35.8% respectively[29] Sector Performance - The downstream industrial growth was relatively strong, while the midstream sector saw a decline from 5.1% in July to 3.5% in December, a drop of nearly 1.6 percentage points[4] - In December, the retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies grew by 14.0% and 9.1% year-on-year, continuing a double-digit growth trend[27] Real Estate Insights - Real estate investment in December decreased by 35.8% year-on-year, compared to a 30.1% decline in the previous month, indicating ongoing pressure in the sector[36] - The area of completed housing in December saw a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, but this was an improvement of 7.0 percentage points from the previous month[38] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry fell by 1.0% year-on-year in December, a decline of 9.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking one of the largest drops among categories[27] - Service sector production index in December rose by 5.0% year-on-year, showing stronger resilience compared to goods consumption[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The management change, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, is expected to lead to a recovery and development for the company. Both Gao Li and Li Shuqing have extensive experience within the China Resources system, which is anticipated to enhance financial control and overall operations [9] - The company is focusing on a dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix and launching new products to expand consumer demographics and scenarios [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.5 billion, 12.3 billion, and 13.1 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB [9] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,515 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7.07%. However, a decline of 14.74% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [8][11] - The net profit for 2023 is 1,329 million RMB, with a significant growth of 34.30%. A decline of 30.67% is projected for 2025, with a recovery in the following years [8][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.66 RMB, with projections of 0.47 RMB in 2025 and a gradual increase to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [8][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.26% in 2023 to around 9.31% by 2027 [8][11] Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 44.66% in 2023, with slight fluctuations in the following years [11] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 43.29% in 2023 to 30.62% by 2027, indicating improved financial stability [11] - The current ratio is projected to improve from 1.07 in 2023 to 2.23 by 2027, reflecting better liquidity [11]

Group 1: Economic Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the CAGR of per capita service consumption in China is approximately 9.6%[1] - By 2024, service consumption is expected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption[1] Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Consumption Boost Special Action Plan" aims to enhance income and reduce burdens on residents[1] - Key measures include extending unemployment insurance and promoting employment for targeted groups[1] Group 3: Consumption Environment - The meeting emphasized addressing issues related to credit, standards, and safety management in the service sector[1] - Future policies will focus on breaking information silos and improving standards in online service platforms[1] Group 4: New Growth Points - The government plans to support new service consumption growth areas, particularly in elderly care, cultural tourism, and sports events[1] - Emerging sectors like smart elderly care and ice and snow economy are expected to become new growth drivers[1] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The expansion and quality improvement of service consumption in China is a confirmed trend[1] - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors like elderly care, ice and snow economy, and AI-driven services[1] Group 6: Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected consumer willingness to spend, delayed policy implementation, and increased industry competition[1]