Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Manbang Group (YMM), as a first-time coverage [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the digital freight platform market in China is expected to grow significantly, with Manbang Group leading the market with a 45% share. The company is projected to achieve revenues of 124.28 billion RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2024 to 2027 [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential driven by its extensive capacity pool, operational advantages, and increasing commission rates, which are expected to enhance profitability [8][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Background - The freight market in China is highly fragmented, with digital freight platforms emerging to improve matching efficiency. The market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 1.5 trillion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of about 21% from 2024 to 2027 [8][9]. - The report notes that the freight market is primarily composed of truckload and less-than-truckload segments, with the truckload segment accounting for about 56% of the market in 2024 [12][16]. Manbang Group Overview - Manbang Group is recognized as a leading digital freight platform in China, with a revenue forecast of 112 billion RMB for 2024. The company has experienced a CAGR of 35% from 2019 to 2024 [8][9][41]. - The company operates various business segments, including freight information publishing, freight brokerage, transaction services, and value-added services, with transaction services expected to be a significant growth driver [8][9][41]. Business Expansion and Technology Empowerment - The report indicates that Manbang Group is expanding its business into less-than-truckload and same-city services, leveraging its established network and operational experience [8][9]. - The integration of new technologies, such as the penetration of new energy heavy trucks and the commercialization of autonomous driving, is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability for the company [8][9]. Financial Projections - The financial forecasts for Manbang Group indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with projected revenues of 124.28 billion RMB, 144.45 billion RMB, and 173.84 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][9]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit, reaching 4.34 billion RMB in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.36 [8][9].

分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090010 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《12 月降息摇摆不定——全球经济观察 第 21 期》 2025-11-22 2. 《美联储官员放鹰——全球经济观察第 20 期》 2025-11-15 3. 《美国流动性告急——全球经济观察第 19 期》 2025-11-08 4. 《政府关门或将结束——全球经济观察 第 18 期》 2025-11-01 5. 《美国成屋销售回暖——全球经济观察 第 17 期》 2025-10-25 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.11.29 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：股市普遍上行。股市方面，本周全球主要股市普遍上涨。 美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨 3.7%、3.2%和 4.9%。债市方面，海外主要市场债市收益率分化，10 年期 美债收益率下跌 4bp。商品方面，原油价格震荡，本周伦敦金价上涨 3.8%。 汇率方面，美元指数下跌 0.7%。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ...

1. 《信用 | 万 科 展 期 影 响 再 思 考 》 2025-11-28 2. 《估值有支撑，关注"更高阶"低估》 2025-11-26 3. 《城投 2026，风偏分化？》 2025- 11-25 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.29 高频｜ 地产销售依旧偏弱，电影票房明显回升 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周主要关注点：（1）本周 20 城新房销售环比略有回升，同比降幅继续走 阔，重点城市中，仅杭州新房销售高于去年同期，整体上地产销售依旧偏弱 （2）商品价格大多上行，开工率表现分化，生产保持平稳；（3）电影票房明 显高于季节性，热门电影上映，观影需求集中体现。 ❖ 本周新房销售同比降幅走阔。Wind20 城新房成交面积环比 3.08%、同比 -33.38%。具体来看，新房成交环比回落，同比降幅走阔，二线城市新房成 交面积稍弱于 ...

Group 1 - The overall demand for passenger vehicles is expected to remain stable, with incremental growth driven by high-end market expansion and exports [3][6][35] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is stabilizing, with domestic market competition gradually reaching a steady state [23][35] - The average price of passenger vehicles is anticipated to increase, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market, as domestic brands continue to replace foreign brands [6][35] Group 2 - The heavy truck market faces pressure domestically, but exports are expected to recover as the pressure on sales to Russia eases [46][50] - The export of medium and large buses is projected to maintain rapid growth, with profitability largely dependent on the European market [55] - The rapid growth of AI data centers is expected to create additional demand in the diesel engine sector [3][46] Group 3 - The smart driving sector is entering a new phase of resonance between China and the US, with advancements in L2 and L3 driving standards expected [58][63] - The Robotaxi market in the US is anticipated to experience explosive growth, driven by companies like Tesla and Waymo [72][75] - The integration of robotics into the automotive supply chain is becoming increasingly significant, with automotive suppliers likely to extend their capabilities into the robotics sector [87][90] Group 4 - Recommended stocks in the passenger vehicle sector include Jianghuai Automobile, BYD, and BAIC Blue Valley, with a focus on high-end vehicles and exports [4][94] - In the robotics sector, recommended stocks include Top Group, Yinlun, and BlueDye Technology, with a focus on companies capable of transitioning into robotics [4][94] - For smart driving, recommended stocks include Bertel, Horizon, and Pony.ai, focusing on the growth of L2 driving technology and Robotaxi commercialization [4][94]

货币:还有多少降息空间？——2026 年宏观十问 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 任思雨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《剔除基数，利润仍弱》 2025-11- 27 2. 《12 月降息摇摆不定——全球经济观察 第 21 期》 2025-11-22 3. 《就业企稳掣肘降息——9 月美国非农数 据解读》 2025-11-21 证券研究报告 宏观年度策略报告 / 2025.11.28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 2026 年美联储仍处降息周期中：通胀回升程度较为温和，暂未对美联储 降息形成掣肘。价格数据证实了美国通胀并未出现异常反弹。从数据结构来 看，受特朗普的关税政策影响的商品价格涨价速度和幅度低于预期，反映出 在终端需求偏弱的环境下，涨价尚未向消费者转嫁。而特朗普还在持续对美 联储施加压力、催促降息。无论下一任美联储候选人是谁，预计都会更加坚 决地贯彻特朗普的政策意图，比鲍威尔更偏鸽派，2026 年美联储继续货币宽 松的确定性较高。 ❖ 2026 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, emphasizing the sustained growth policies and the favorable economic environment in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang and Sichuan [5][12][22] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive high-quality development in domestic infrastructure investment, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and the Duku Highway in Xinjiang set to commence construction [10][11][15] - The report highlights the importance of new infrastructure needs, including the construction of a modern energy system and the development of smart transportation systems, which are anticipated to create new investment opportunities for companies in the sector [25][26] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies that are likely to benefit from the infrastructure boom in Xinjiang, such as Xinjiang Communications Construction, Qingsong Construction, and China Chemical Engineering, due to their involvement in major projects [14][16][19] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is entering a phase of accelerated investment, with numerous projects planned or under construction, which is expected to enhance the operational performance of companies like China Metallurgical Group and China Railway Group [17][19][20] - The report notes that the Belt and Road Initiative continues to present overseas construction opportunities, with significant growth in new orders for major state-owned enterprises in both domestic and international markets [5][19][22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for companies involved in the new energy sector, as the government aims to construct a new energy system and achieve carbon peak goals, creating opportunities for firms engaged in renewable energy projects [25][26] - Companies like Suzhou Transportation Science and Technology and Huase Group are highlighted for their roles in the emerging low-altitude economy, which is expected to see accelerated development in infrastructure and operational capabilities [5][25] - The report discusses the rising prices of key minerals such as gold, copper, and cobalt, suggesting that companies involved in mineral resource development, like China Metallurgical Group and China Railway Group, may see increased value from their operations [17][19][22]

万象更新，乘势而行-2026 年金融工程年度策略 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《本周市场普跌，指增组合收益承压》 2025-11-22 2. 《沪深 300 增强超额收益领先市场》 2025-11-15 3. 《红利微盘哑铃型策略回归，指增超额表 现回暖》 2025-11-08 证券研究报告 金融工程专题报告 / 2025.11.28 核心观点 ❖ 公募基金投资策略： 市场回顾：2025 年公募基金蓬勃发展，规模与数量双增长，业绩表现亮眼。 业绩：2025 年以来基金整体表现优异，大部分基金取得了正收益，主动权益 基金区间收益均值高达 29.69%。配置：主动权益基金重仓股配置前三的板 块为科技、制造以及周期。 2026 年基金经理市场展望总结：宏观经济：平稳复苏；A 股：结构性机会仍 存，科技成长仍是主线；港股：估值处于历史偏 ...

央企龙头向新求质，物管筑基稳健发展 保利物业(06049) 证券研究报告 房地产服务 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.28 | 投资评级:买入(首次) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 35.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.47 | | 每股净资产(元) | 17.84 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.53 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -15% -4% 7% 18% 30% 41% 保利物业 恒生指数 房地产服务 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The reasons for Vanke's debt extension include high debt pressure, poor debt structure, heavy short - term repayment pressure, unfavorable asset disposal, significant sales decline, and limited external support due to its "no actual controller" equity structure [4][49]. - The impact of Vanke's debt extension is analyzed from four aspects: whether it is unexpected, the scope and degree of impact determined by debt volume and investor participation, the representativeness of Vanke, and policy responses. Overall, the short - term impact is controllable, mainly affecting weakly - qualified private and state - owned real estate enterprises, and it may be the starting point of market credit risk preference differentiation [2][5][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. How did Vanke reach the debt extension? - Since 2025, Vanke has experienced a series of events such as the departure of the original management, the arrest of the chairman, borrowing support from Shenzhen Metro, and the failure of Shenzhen Metro's consolidation plan. These events foreshadowed the debt extension [11]. 2. Why did the debt extension happen? 2.1 High debt pressure remains the core - As of the end of September 2025, Vanke's interest - bearing debt reached 362.9 billion yuan, a record high. The proportion of interest - bearing debt due within one year was 42.7%, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio was only 0.48. After excluding restricted funds, the debt pressure is even greater [4][15]. - Despite Shenzhen Metro's cumulative borrowing of 30.796 billion yuan to Vanke, Vanke still faces prominent liquidity pressure. The asset disposal and sales situation are not optimistic, and there is still a certain bond repayment pressure [17][19][21]. 2.2 Vanke is not a pure state - owned enterprise - From the equity structure, Shenzhen Metro is the major shareholder but not the actual controller. Vanke is recognized as "no actual controller", which is different from pure state - owned enterprises [25]. 3. How to view the impact of the debt extension? 3.1 Lessons, development, and enlightenment from Yongmei's default - In 2020, Yongmei's default had a huge impact on the market, triggering concerns about Henan coal enterprises and "debt evasion", and shaking the foundation of credit analysis. It also led to an impact on the entire urban investment bond market, with a significant widening of credit spreads and a differentiation in credit risk preferences [28][31]. 3.2 Was Vanke's debt extension unexpected? - Before the debt extension, the market was optimistic about Vanke due to expectations of policy and external support. Therefore, Vanke's debt extension was unexpected, but it also seemed reasonable [39]. 3.3 How to assess the scope and degree of impact? - Vanke's total interest - bearing debt is large, but the remaining domestic bond scale is less than 20 billion yuan. Public funds hold a relatively small amount of Vanke's bonds, while large - scale and volatility - resistant wealth management and banks are the main holders, so the market impact is relatively small [40][42]. 3.4 What is Vanke's representativeness? - Vanke has labels such as real estate enterprise, mixed - ownership, and high debt pressure. Its debt extension may affect weakly - qualified private real estate enterprises (including mixed - ownership), weakly - qualified state - owned real estate enterprises, weakly - qualified state - owned industrial entities, and weakly - qualified urban investment entities. The short - term impact is controllable, mainly affecting weakly - qualified private and state - owned real estate enterprises [5][43][51]. 4. Summary - The reasons for Vanke's debt extension are high debt pressure, poor debt structure, heavy short - term repayment pressure, unfavorable asset disposal, significant sales decline, and limited external support [49]. - The analysis of the impact of credit risk events can be summarized into four aspects: whether the event is unexpected, the scope and degree of impact determined by debt volume and investor participation, the representativeness of the subject, and policy responses [50]. - Vanke's debt extension may be the starting point of market credit risk preference differentiation, indicating that credit risk still exists [52].

规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.27 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 162.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.98 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.04 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com | 联系人 王汉学 | | --- | | wanghx01@ctsec.com | 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 三大决策"省际班车"+"有偿派费"+"股份改革"实现弯道超车。 公司凭借对加盟快递商业本质洞察开通省际班车、推行有偿派费、进行股份制 改革，最终在后期实现弯道超车，2016 年成为加盟制快递龙头。 ❖ 加盟快递行业龙头，业绩增长相对稳健。公司市占率排名在通达系中居首， 2025Q3 市占率 19.4%，较 2025H ...