金山办公(688111) / 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.20 业绩符合预期，一站式 AI 办公全新升级 证券研究报告 1. 《4Q2024 及全年业绩超预期，AI 助 力打开成长空间》 2025-02-28 2. 《业绩稳步增长，WPS AI 触达 2 亿 海外用户》 2024-10-27 3. 《AI 相关会员数超百万，机构订阅推 进顺利》 2024-08-21 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4556 | 5121 | 6205 | 7543 | 9221 | | 收入增长率(%) | 17.27 | 12.40 | 21.16 | 21.57 | 22.25 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1318 | 1645 | 1915 | 2356 | 2859 | | 净利润增长率(%) | 17.92 | 24.84 | 16.43 | 22.99 | 21.37 | | ...

毛利率承压现金流大幅好转，海外订单快速增长 证券研究报告 江河集团(601886) / 装修装饰Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.03.20 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 5.69 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.33 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.49 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.33 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -31% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 江河集团 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 陈悦明 chenym01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《收入订单稳健增长，现金流持续改 善》 2024-10-30 2. 《经营稳中有增，海外和 BIPV 渐成 新增长极》 2024-08-30 3. 《业绩符合预期，BIPV 业务开始放 量》 2024-03-30 公司点评/证券研究报告 | 公司财务报表及指标预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

宏观月报 / 2025.03.20 ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《降息"急停",不符"上意" -- 月美联储议息会议解读》 2025-01-30 2.《降息节奏调慢 -- 12月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-12-19 3.《降息步伐暂缓 -- 11月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-11-08 核心观点 继续暂停降息,缩表步伐放缓。本次议息会议中,美联储决定继续暂停降 8 息,并按原有节奏执行缩表。不过,从 4 月开始,美联储将开始放缓缩表步 伐. 将每月美债减持上限从 250亿美元放缓至 50亿美元。3月所公布的点阵 图显示,年内或有2次降息。本次会议声明中,新增"经济前景不确定性增加" 的表述,并删除了"就业与通胀大致平衡"。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示, 近期调查显示经济不确定性加剧,美联储需要等待,并不急于在5月降息。缩 表方面,美联储将以更慢的速度、更长的时间进行缩表。 就业稳定。通胀或暂时反弹。本次声明中,委员会对就业和通胀的表述判 * 断 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.03.20 ——3 月美联储议息会议解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《降息"急停"，不符"上意"——1 月美联储议息会议解读》 2025-01-30 2. 《降息节奏调慢——12 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-12-19 3.《降息步伐暂缓——11 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-11-08 4. 《降息步入"快车道"——9 月美联 储议息会议解读》 2024-09-19 5. 《降息箭在弦上——7 月美联储议息 会议解读》 2024-08-01 核心观点 ❖ 继续暂停降息，缩表步伐放缓。本次议息会议中，美联储决定继续暂停降 息，并按原有节奏执行缩表。不过，从 4 月开始，美联储将开始放缓缩表步 伐，将每月美债减持上限从 250 亿美元放缓至 50 亿美元。3 月所公布的点阵 图显示，年内或有 2 次降息。本次会议声明中，新增"经济前景不确定性增加" 的表述，并删除了"就业与通胀大致平衡"。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示， 近期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched the groundbreaking Super e platform, which includes advancements such as ultra-fast charging batteries, a 30,000 RPM motor, and a new generation of automotive-grade silicon carbide power chips, marking a comprehensive upgrade of its core technologies [5] - The Super e platform is expected to boost sales with the pre-sale of models Han L and Tang L, priced between 270,000 to 360,000 CNY and set to officially launch in April [5] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 38.615 billion CNY in 2024, 48.334 billion CNY in 2025, and 57.409 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.27, 24.18, and 20.36 respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 424.06 billion CNY in 2022 to 905.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 96.20% in 2022, 42.04% in 2023, and projected 18.28% in 2025 [4][6] - Net profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 16.622 billion CNY in 2022 to 48.334 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 445.86% in 2022 and 25.17% in 2025 [4][6] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from 5.71 CNY in 2022 to 15.90 CNY in 2025, indicating strong earnings growth [4][6] Market Performance - The company's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 12%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have increased by 6% and 24% respectively [3]

分析师 张文录 SAC 证书编号：S0160517100001 zhangwenlu@ctsec.com 分析师 华挺 SAC 证书编号：S0160523010002 huating@ctsec.com 分析师 邢卓 SAC 证书编号：S0160524120004 xingzhuo@ctsec.com 分析师 赵千 SAC 证书编号：S0160524020001 zhaoqian@ctsec.com 医药生物 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.03.18 妇儿医疗领域龙头中长期价值有望提升 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -15% -6% 2% 10% 18% 医药生物 沪深300 | 1 | 板块行情回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 医疗保健行业估值情况 | 3 | | 1.2 | 行业指数表现 | 3 | | 1.3 | 子行业一周表现 | 4 | | 1.4 | 行业个股表现 | 4 | | 2 | 行业动态 | 5 | | 3 | 风险提示 | 7 | | 图 | 1. 2015 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to maintain a high growth target for 2025, aiming for revenue and net profit growth of no less than 20% [6] - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing its market presence, with significant growth in various beverage categories [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 11.26 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.84 billion yuan - 2025E: 20.73 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.9%) - 2026E: 26.27 billion yuan (growth rate of 26.7%) - 2027E: 32.96 billion yuan (growth rate of 25.4%) [5][7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 2.04 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.33 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.34 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.3%) - 2026E: 5.64 billion yuan (growth rate of 30.0%) - 2027E: 7.20 billion yuan (growth rate of 27.7%) [5][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2023A: 3.92 yuan - 2024A: 6.40 yuan - 2025E: 8.34 yuan - 2026E: 10.84 yuan - 2027E: 13.84 yuan [5][7] - Profitability Metrics: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 32.3% in 2023A to 55.3% in 2027E [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023A to 47.4% in 2027E [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company has expanded its distribution network, with 3,193 distributors and nearly 4 million active terminals by the end of 2024, an increase of 212 distributors and 600,000 terminals from 2023 [6] - The electrolyte beverage segment has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 280.4% year-on-year in 2024 [6] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings in coffee and tea beverages [6]

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2025.03.17 1-2 月家具社零同比+11.7%，住宅销售降幅收窄 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -26% -17% -8% 1% 9% 18% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 分析师 何栋 SAC 证书编号：S0160524080002 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《家具出口额同比回落，深圳出台补 贴细则》 2025-03-16 2. 《深圳推动家装厨卫以旧换新，关注 家居相关转债》 2025-03-16 3. 《政策定调积极，地产回稳趋势延续》 2025-03-09 轻工社零数据月度跟踪 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 2025 年 1-2 月社零总额同比+4.0%，增速环比+0.3pct。2025 年 1-2 月社 零总额 8.37 万亿元（+4.0%，前值+3.7%），除汽车以外的消费品零售额 7.68 万亿元（+4.8%，前值+4.2%）。2025 年 1-2 月市场销售增长加快，其中以旧换 新相关商品销售较好。 ...

尚太科技(001301) / 电池 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.17 2024 年报略超预期，盈利持续领先 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-14 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 55.95 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.61 | | 每股净资产(元) | 24.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.61 | 最近 12 月市场表现 | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4391 | 5229 | 7226 | 9205 | 11380 | | 收入增长率(%) | -8.18 | 19.10 | 38.18 | 27.39 | 23.62 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 723 | 838 | 1050 | 1401 | 1755 | | 净利润增长率(%) | -43.94 | 15.97 | 25.27 | 33.41 | 25.26 | ...

宁德时代(300750) / 电池 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.17 业绩符合预期，数据中心带动储能需求大幅增长 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 400917 | 362013 | 444478 | 541780 | 621904 | | 收入增长率(%) | 22.01 | -9.70 | 22.78 | 21.89 | 14.79 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 44121 | 50745 | 64611 | 75802 | 87634 | | 净利润增长率(%) | 43.58 | 15.01 | 27.32 | 17.32 | 15.61 | | EPS(元) | 10.06 | 11.58 | 14.67 | 17.21 | 19.90 | | PE | 16.23 | 22.97 | 17.45 | 14.87 | 12.86 | | ROE(%) | 22.32 | 20. ...