Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI-related chips is driving significant growth in the wafer foundry sector, with TSMC's revenue reaching NT$1.05 trillion in Q4 2025, a 20.45% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for a single quarter [6][8]. - The global advanced process capacity is expected to accelerate, with SEMI predicting that the capacity for 7nm and below advanced logic processes will grow from approximately 850,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 1.4 million wafers per month by 2028 [6][12]. - Domestic companies in China need to accelerate their technological upgrades and capacity expansions to catch up with global leaders like TSMC and Samsung, as their market share in advanced processes remains significantly low [6][11]. - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is projected to reach a historical high of CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, indicating a strong signal for accelerated capacity expansion in advanced processes [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor companies such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Jiangfeng Electronics, and others for investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Advanced Process Wafer Foundry Development - AI computing chip demand is propelling the wafer foundry industry to new heights, with TSMC's revenue growth and a projected global wafer foundry market size increase from USD 155.6 billion in 2024 to USD 268.3 billion by 2032 [6][8]. - The complexity and larger size of AI GPU chips require more advanced process capacity, leading to a higher demand for wafer foundry services [8][9]. 2. Domestic Market in China - China's wafer foundry industry has seen rapid expansion in mature processes, but advanced process capacity and technology development face significant challenges due to export restrictions from Western countries [9][11]. - In 2021, China's share in the global advanced process wafer foundry market was only 5%, highlighting the need for further development [11]. 3. Semiconductor Equipment Imports - The import of semiconductor equipment in China is expected to reach CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, with significant investments in critical lithography equipment [12][13]. - ASML's revenue from lithography systems is projected to be EUR 24.474 billion in 2025, with 33% of that coming from the Chinese market, indicating strong demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [12][13].

C套内存模组向 MRDIMM MRCD RHS MDB 麻 . Peter The new State of the research and a line of the state of the 行业专题报告 / 2026.02.01 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 359 分析师 唐佳 SAC 证书编号: S0160525110002 tangjia@ctsec.com 联系人 周勃宇 zhouby@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《招股说明书梳理系列(一):盛合晶微》 2026-01-29 2.《先进封装涨价与扩产共振，强周期与成 长共舞》 2026-01-29 3. 《AI Agent 沙箱化有望带来 CPU 新增 量空间》 2026-01-25 看好 MRCD 芯片与 MDB 芯片环节 核心观点 服务器级 CPU 配套内存模组向 MRDIMM 发展:服务器中 CPU 与内 * 存模组是两大核心部件,内存模组主要作为 CPU 与硬盘的数据中转站,用于 临时存储数据。目前服务器中三种主流的内存模组技术分别为 UDIMM、 RDIMM、LRDIMM，其中 UDIMM ...

食用菌景气上行,冬虫夏草迎发展机遇 athy Market Virtus ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(首次) 最近 12 月市场表现 159 分析师 手服 SAC 证书编号: S0160525110001 wangcong@ctsec.com 肖珮菁 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 内容目录 | 1 冬虫夏草: 规模化人工培育持续推进…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 | | --- | | 1.1 冬虫夏草．产业链持续完善，应用领域广泛 | | 1.2 价格复盘： 稀缺性驱动，野生虫草价格偏强 | | 1.3 政策复盘: 推动技术进步，可持续规范发展 | | 1.4 规模化人工培育冬虫夏草迎发展机遇 | | 2 食用菌：市场格局优化，产能回归理性 . | | 2.1 食用菌行业: 规模持续增长，市场格局优化 . | | 金针菇，竞争格局稳定，价格底部企稳 . 2.2 | | 2.3 双孢菇：龙头份额较高，行业产能稳定 . | | ...

酒板块眼踪点评报告 TH KE ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立德 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 张之 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090004 zhangli01@ctsec.com 任金星 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160524010001 renix@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析》 2026-01-29 2. 《国标加速推出，利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 3. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 业》 2026-01-05 日酒动销渐起,关注预期差下的板块机织 核心观点 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数 据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解。本报告清晰地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论 不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 ● 资质声明 � 风险提示:消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market has seen significant fluctuations. The short - term rise is driven by the safe - haven property, dollar credit issues, and tight silver inventory. The sharp increase was due to short - squeezes and the option gamma squeeze effect. Currently, factors triggering adjustments include the nomination of Warsh as the Fed chair, high volatility, a significant decline in silver ETF holdings, and exchange intervention. In the long - term, the upward trend remains, and historical data shows an average 18 - day correction with an 8% decline, and a re - entry point may be when the implied volatility drops below 20% [5][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - term Logic for the Recent Rise - **Safe - haven Property**: Multiple geopolitical conflicts in 2026, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and potential US tariffs on Europe and strikes against Iran, have sharply increased risk - aversion sentiment. Additionally, the potential US government shutdown also boosts the precious metals market [10][15] - **Dollar Credit Issues**: Due to the unpredictability of the US government and growing US debt, European institutions like Swedish and Danish pension funds have reduced their holdings of US - related assets, and some funds may choose gold as a new underlying asset [16] - **Silver - specific Logic**: The industrial and investment demand for silver has led to a significant decline in physical silver inventory. Compared to September 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has dropped by over 58%, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 21% [17] 2. Reasons for the Previous Sharp Increase - **Short - squeeze**: As of January 29, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8.75, much higher than the historical average. In January, over 40 million ounces of silver on COMEX applied for delivery, and as the March delivery month approaches, the demand may exhaust the current inventory [20] - **Option Gamma Squeeze Effect**: Retail investors' large - scale purchase of call options forces market - makers to buy underlying assets in the futures market, creating a self - reinforcing cycle. When gold broke through $5000 per ounce, it accelerated its upward movement [21] 3. Factors Triggering the Current Adjustment - **Direct Cause**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair stabilizes the dollar's credit, weakening the "de - dollarization" narrative and suppressing gold prices [24] - **Volatility Perspective**: As of January 29, the implied volatility of gold exceeded 35%, and that of silver was 94%, both at historical highs, indicating an over - heated market [25] - **Funds Perspective**: The significant decline in silver ETF holdings since January 26, approaching previous lows, signals an adjustment in the silver market. Gold's overall holding growth has also slowed [27][29] - **Exchange Intervention**: The CME has raised the margin for silver and gold six times since December 2025, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also increased margins and issued risk warnings [30] 4. What to Do After the Adjustment - **Medium - to - Long - term Perspective**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. International concerns about US debt sustainability and Fed independence drive central banks to increase gold reserves, and the Fed's current interest - rate cut cycle reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold [34] - **Historical Reference**: Since 2024, gold has had three peak - to - trough corrections, with an average correction time of about 18 days and a decline of about 8% [35] - **Volatility Guidance**: Historically, gold rallies have often started when implied volatility dropped to a low level. In the future, when the volatility drops below 20%, it may be a signal to go long [36]

宏观点评 / 2026.01.31 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 万琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090007 wanqi@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 不同于收入端，第一本账支出端边际变化相对积极，年末支出出现超季节性 上行,支出同比降幅也有所收窄。但民生类相关支出环比弱于季节性,同比转 为负增,地方现金流紧张问题仍存。第二本账方面,因年末用于项目的专项债 加速发行使用，支出同比小幅正增长。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 2026-01-30 1. 《存款搬家,新路径》 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 宏观点评/证券研究报告 图表目录 | 图 1 : 12 月中央对全国一般公共预算收入同比拖累加大 . | | --- | | 图 2: 12 月税收及非税收入同比均有下行 | | 图 3: 12 月非税收入环比不及季节性 | | 图 4: 12 月税收收入环比不及季节性…………………………………………………………………………… ...

■ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2026.01.31 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 核心观点 利率下行临近阈值, 10y 国债在 1.8%、30y 国债在 2.25%连续盘整,怎么 * 看? 开门红成色偏弱、有色和贵金属行情出现急速回调，经济和通胀预期都 会弱化,央行呵护是大概率事件,即使政府债净融资延续放量,但供需格局 可能继续有利于债市。尤其是,开年主要买入机构是银行,银行的行为更具 延续性,债市就有相对确定性;虽然交易盘对久期策略信心不足，但一方面 5v 以内信用利差压缩到 11 月低点,长利率的票息性价比和收益弹性更高, 另一方面基金久期也处于 2024年下半年以来的低点,未来做多有充足空间, 一旦突破关键点位，市场做多势能只会更猛烈。 因此综合评估,2 月债市胜率高于赔率,建议动态看待央行阈值限制，关注 久期策略回归,点位上参照 11月中旬,30y国债收益率向下可能突破 2.15%。 SAC 证书编号: S0160525020001 sunhh@ctsec.com [舊修고 SAC 证书编号: S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 邦劳鹏 zhenavp@ctsec.com ...

外销快速增长,后续新品类是看点 科沃斯(603486) ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 71.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.73 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.85 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.79 | 最近 12 月市场表现 ----------- SAC 证书编号: S0160525060001 sungian@ctsec.com 分析师 于雪娇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080005 yuxj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《扫地机内外销增速亮眼,期间费用率有 所优化》 2025-10-25 2.《科沃斯品牌内外销高增,积极布局具身 智能》 2025-08-18 3. 《收入业绩高增,被忽视的新消费公司》 2025-07-11 核心观点 盈利预测 | 市神(人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,502 ...

宏观点评 / 2026.02.01 核心观点 事件: 1 月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.3%,较上月回落 0.8 个百分 点，重回荣枯线下方。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! ■ 证券研究报告 2026-01-31 1. 《出口退税显著扩大》 2. 《沃什终究不是沃尔克》 2026-01-31 2026-01-30 3. 《存款搬家, 新路径》 张伟 分析师 2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据指向价格继续抑制需求: 2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据 � 勾勒出的图景是,在需求走弱的背景下,企业销售库存去化被动放缓,但是由 于价格剪刀差扩大，企业更倾向于使用原材料扩张生产。 内外部需求均回落：2026年１月制造业新出口订单指数和新订单指数分别 * 为 47.8%和 49.2%，分别较上月回落 1.2 和 1.6 个百分点。新出口订单指数 仍旧在荣枯线下方继续下行，外需走弱有两大原因：一是近期贸易政策变化 增多，部分国际市场的进口政策或规则出现变化,影响了企业相关出口订单; 二是由于美国消费者信心指数下降，根据世界大型企业联合会 27 日发布的初 步调查数据,美国 1 月消费者信心指数从去年 12 月 ...

继电器行业报告 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 音脖了 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 李渤 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《特斯拉和 Waymo 持续加速 Robotaxi 业务》 2026-01-25 2.《乘用车行业点评报告: 1 月车市正值淡 季,关注高端化智能化主线》 2026-01- 20 3.《CES 展叠加美国听证会, Robotaxi 加 快发展 》 t车行业发展带动汽车继电器需求持续提升 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 行业专题报告 / 2026.01.30 汽车继电器在传统燃油车和新能源汽车上均广泛应用:汽车继电器是指 专门应用于汽车电器控制的继电器,它是随着汽车电子、电器产品发展起来 的。在传统的内燃机汽车中,继电器广泛应用于控制、起动、空调、灯光、雨 刮器、电喷装置、油泵、电动门窗、电动座椅、电子仪表和故障诊断系统等。 在新能源汽车中,还在动力电池、电源管理系统和充电系统等领域广泛应用。 汽车行业规模持续提升带 ...