高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多下行 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 2. 《量化 | 美债利率择时模型——布局海 外的利器！》 2025-11-18 3. 《信用 | 农商折价、天安违约，金融风险 再观察》 2025-11-18 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.22 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周主要关注点：（1）本周新房销售同比降幅有所收窄，二线城市新房形成 支撑，其中杭州新房销售表现亮眼，或受新房折价销售和集中供应影响。10 月底，杭州开展"购房+消费券"补贴活动，购房者购买参与活动的新房项目 每套房可获得额外 10 万元消费券。（2）商品价格和开工率大多下行，淡季生 产端比较平稳，关注前期政策落地情况；（3）地铁出行、国内执行航班持续 保持高位，居民出行动能依旧偏强。 ❖ 本周新房销售同 ...

本周市场普跌，指增组合收益承压 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《沪深 300 增强超额收益领先市场》 2025-11-15 2. 《红利微盘哑铃型策略回归，指增超额表 现回暖》 2025-11-08 3. 《2025 年 12 月核心宽基指数成分股调 整预测》 2025-11-06 证券研究报告 量化选股策略周报/ 2025.11.22 核心观点 ❖ 我们基于深度学习框架构建 alpha 和风险模型，打造 AI 体系下的低 频指数增强策略： ❖ 风险提示：因子失效风险，模型失效风险，市场风格变动风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周市场指数表现：截至 2025-11-21，本周上证指数下跌 3.90%，深证 成指下跌 5.13%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，市场情绪下降指数蒙受较大跌幅。 ❖ 本周指数增强基金表现：截至 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the favorable news has been fully priced in, the market is experiencing a weak bullish phase, leading to profit-taking concerns and subsequent global asset adjustments [4][10] - Recent market movements show significant declines in major indices, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, while A-shares and Asian markets also faced pressure [4][10] - The report highlights that despite positive catalysts such as Nvidia's earnings and strong non-farm payroll data, bearish sentiments persist, particularly regarding technology stocks and valuation concerns [4][10] Market Overview - The report notes that both the US and Chinese markets have entered a period of observation and adjustment, with a focus on profit-taking and healthy corrections [5][11] - It emphasizes that after sustained increases, both markets require a period of rest to better prepare for the next upward movement, with A-shares particularly positioned for future gains based on upcoming earnings [5][11] - The report identifies that the banking and dividend sectors have shown significant excess returns, with state-owned banks and dividend stocks outperforming by 10.0%, 8.7%, 6.5%, and 3.7% respectively since November [5][12] Future Outlook - The long-term trends for both US and Chinese stock markets, including technology sectors, remain unchanged, with several factors supporting this view [6][13] - For A-shares, the report outlines four key aspects: supportive policy towards capital markets, a weak recovery trend, continued liquidity improvements, and strong top-level policy support for the technology sector [6][13] - The report anticipates potential scenarios for A-shares in December, including unexpected policy support or structural adjustments leading to a market rally, with a focus on technology growth stocks [7][14]

相关报告 1.《 就业转向供过于求——8 月美国非农数 2025-09-06 据解读》 2.《政府就业被高估——7 月美国非农数据 解读》 2025-08-02 3.《政府支撑就业上升——6 月美国非农数 据解读》 4.《就业降温趋势不变 -- 5 月美国非农数 据解读》 5.《就业不断下修――4 月美国非农数据解 读》 2025-05-03 and Path Till and Till and State of the Same of the Same ■ 证券研究报告 【生元 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxina@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090010 malv@ctsec.com 宏观月报 / 2025.11.21 核心观点 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。9 月新增非农就业升至 11.9 万人, * 但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7 月和 8 月两个月合计共下调 3.3 万 人。本月教育保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业 回升,其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过,随着接受递延辞职的 联邦员工正 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - Lenovo Group's revenue for FY25/26Q2 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [8] - The company's adjusted net profit rose by 26.7% year-on-year to $510 million, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [8] - The AI PC segment is accelerating its penetration, with a penetration rate reaching 33% [8] - The mobile phone business achieved record sales, with revenue of $15.11 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.7% and showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported strong order reserves, with revenue of $4.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [8] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record quarterly revenue of $2.56 billion, marking 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [8] - Future adjusted net profit growth is projected at 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28, respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 56,864 - 2025A: 69,077 - 2026E: 77,184 - 2027E: 82,925 - 2028E: 89,545 - Net profit projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 1,011 - 2025A: 1,384 - 2026E: 1,649 - 2027E: 1,891 - 2028E: 2,137 - EPS projections (in CNY): - 2024A: 0.08 - 2025A: 0.11 - 2026E: 0.13 - 2027E: 0.15 - 2028E: 0.17 - PE ratios: - 2025A: 11.89 - 2026E: 9.38 - 2027E: 8.18 - 2028E: 7.23 [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the affordable casual dining sector, focusing on high cost-performance ratio in new Huizhou cuisine, with a strong supply chain and direct operation model facilitating rapid expansion [8][19]. - The company has shown impressive financial performance, with a revenue of 2.71 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year [8]. - The casual dining market is highly fragmented, and the company is expected to increase its market share due to its competitive advantages [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2013, specializes in affordable Huizhou cuisine, with a focus on quality ingredients and healthy cooking methods [13]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 667 stores, primarily in 14 provinces across China [13][19]. Industry Overview - The casual dining market in China is experiencing robust growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing the mid-to-high-end dining segment [39]. - The market for affordable casual dining is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% over the next five years, driven by consumer demand for value [46]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, ensuring high-quality and stable supply at low costs through centralized procurement [59]. - The direct operation model allows for consistent quality and service across all locations, with a focus on employee training and retention [19][59]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.08 billion yuan, 7.60 billion yuan, and 9.31 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 753 million yuan, 961 million yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan [7][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these years are 15, 12, and 9 times, respectively [8].

证券研究报告 牛市资金面面观 分析师：徐陈翼 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：熊宇翔 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 3 报告日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 1 9 日 ——牛市宝典系列一 核心观点 历轮牛市主要增量资金回顾： A股每轮上行行情增量资金均在万亿以上，大级别行情3万亿以上，本轮仍有增量空间。A股历轮牛市中，公募、险资、外资、杠杆资金四大 主体，在行情从低位上行至高点期间的增量资金贡献均在万亿元级别，其中2014-2015年和2020-2021年两轮资金增量高达3万亿元以上。本轮自去年9月以来的牛市中， 杠杆资金与险资贡献了主要增量，总量上看当前增量分别占2015、2021年两轮行情的87%、73%。 本轮行情各主体增量： 2、险资：今年以来，金融监管总局通过上调保险资金权益类资产投资比例的上限、调降保险公司股票投资风险因子等具体措施，直接为险资加大权益投资铺平道路。截 至2025Q3，险资在股票与证券投资上的运用余额较2024Q3增长近1.5万亿元，权益仓位为2015Q2以来最高。展望明年，仍有望贡献重要增量。 风 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is strengthening its supply chain optimization, leading to improved profitability. A strategic partnership with Delisi Group aims to enhance supply chain efficiency and product development [7] - The company reported a revenue of 13.59 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 18.27 billion yuan, 18.76 billion yuan, and 19.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 222 million yuan, 242 million yuan, and 245 million yuan [7] Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 17.76 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -2.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 136 million yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 127% [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30.9 [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 9.0% in 2025, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.8 [6][8] Store Optimization - As of September 2025, the company had a total of 1,090 stores, including 921 direct-operated stores and 169 franchise stores. The company opened 7 direct-operated stores and 13 franchise stores in the third quarter [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store layout and enhancing customer service experience, which has contributed to an increase in store foot traffic [7]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while expenditure rose by 2%[3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with expenditure increasing by 15.4%[3] - In October, general public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.3% and 4.0% respectively[6] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in October, with a seasonal growth of approximately 79% compared to September, marking the highest level in five years[8] - Personal income tax revenue experienced an "abnormal" growth of 24.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the average growth of 9.6% from 2021 to 2024[8] - Non-tax revenue declined sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% and a month-on-month drop exceeding 53 percentage points[19] Expenditure Challenges - General public budget expenditure fell by 9.8% year-on-year in October, a significant drop compared to the previous year's growth of 3.1%[23] - Local government expenditure decreased by nearly 12% year-on-year, while central government expenditure only declined by about 1%[24] - Social welfare and employment expenditures faced considerable pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 39.4%[27] Land Sales and Fiscal Impact - Land sales revenue in October was recorded at 268 billion yuan, a 27.3% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level in five years[32] - The downturn in the real estate market has severely impacted local government finances, with land sales contributing 81% to local government fund revenue[37] - Broad fiscal revenue turned negative, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% in income and a 19.1% drop in expenditure[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2][31] Core Insights - In October 2025, the total retail sales reached 46,291 billion, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 2.9%, slightly exceeding expectations; excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% [12][21] - The overall consumption sentiment showed a decline due to significant drag from appliances, automobiles, and petroleum, while optional consumption was positively influenced by the dual festivals and Double Eleven shopping event [12][21] - The online retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.6%, with October's online retail sales at 15,086 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [24][25] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - The total retail sales for January to October 2025 amounted to 412,169 billion, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and excluding automobiles, the growth was 4.9% [12][21] - In October, the retail sales of goods and dining revenue were 41,092 billion and 5,199 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.8% [12][21] Retail Data Above Designated Size - In October, the retail sales above designated size reached 17,782 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [13] - The dining revenue for October showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while the retail sales of goods grew by 1.4% [13] Online Retail Data - The online retail sales for the first ten months totaled 127,916 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.6% [24] - The physical online retail sales for January to October reached 103,984 billion, accounting for 28.4% of total goods retail and 25.2% of total retail sales [24]