货币:还有多少降息空间？——2026 年宏观十问 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 任思雨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《剔除基数，利润仍弱》 2025-11- 27 2. 《12 月降息摇摆不定——全球经济观察 第 21 期》 2025-11-22 3. 《就业企稳掣肘降息——9 月美国非农数 据解读》 2025-11-21 证券研究报告 宏观年度策略报告 / 2025.11.28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 2026 年美联储仍处降息周期中：通胀回升程度较为温和，暂未对美联储 降息形成掣肘。价格数据证实了美国通胀并未出现异常反弹。从数据结构来 看，受特朗普的关税政策影响的商品价格涨价速度和幅度低于预期，反映出 在终端需求偏弱的环境下，涨价尚未向消费者转嫁。而特朗普还在持续对美 联储施加压力、催促降息。无论下一任美联储候选人是谁，预计都会更加坚 决地贯彻特朗普的政策意图，比鲍威尔更偏鸽派，2026 年美联储继续货币宽 松的确定性较高。 ❖ 2026 ...

厚积固根本，乘新拓远疆 建筑装饰 分析师 陈悦明 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100002 chenym01@ctsec.com 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 证券研究报告 行业投资策略报告 / 2025.11.28 投资评级:看好(维持) 1. 《"十五五"规划出台，建筑板块哪些方 向值得关注》 2025-11-03 2. 《"高切低"风格转换下建筑板块如何布 局》 2025-10-20 3. 《建筑装饰 3Q2025 年季报前瞻》 2025-10-13 最近 12 月市场表现 -14% -7% 0% 8% 15% 23% 建筑装饰 沪深300 上证指数 ❖ 稳增长政策持续，看好西部区域景气度。"十五五"期间，预计国内基建 投资会继续高质量发展，城市发展所需的民生类建筑和诸如雅江下游水电等 重大战略项目会进入施工阶段，对头部建筑企业和当地钢铁、水泥、防水等原 材料公司经营起到拉动作用。区域来看，新疆地区基建空间广阔，独库高速等 重大交通基建项目以及国能哈密等重大煤化工项目有望集中推进，建议关注 受益新疆区域景气度的新疆交建、青松建化、三维化学、中国化学、东华科技 等公司；同时，2025 年以来 ...

万象更新，乘势而行-2026 年金融工程年度策略 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《本周市场普跌，指增组合收益承压》 2025-11-22 2. 《沪深 300 增强超额收益领先市场》 2025-11-15 3. 《红利微盘哑铃型策略回归，指增超额表 现回暖》 2025-11-08 证券研究报告 金融工程专题报告 / 2025.11.28 核心观点 ❖ 公募基金投资策略： 市场回顾：2025 年公募基金蓬勃发展，规模与数量双增长，业绩表现亮眼。 业绩：2025 年以来基金整体表现优异，大部分基金取得了正收益，主动权益 基金区间收益均值高达 29.69%。配置：主动权益基金重仓股配置前三的板 块为科技、制造以及周期。 2026 年基金经理市场展望总结：宏观经济：平稳复苏；A 股：结构性机会仍 存，科技成长仍是主线；港股：估值处于历史偏 ...

央企龙头向新求质，物管筑基稳健发展 保利物业(06049) 证券研究报告 房地产服务 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.28 | 投资评级:买入(首次) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 35.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.47 | | 每股净资产(元) | 17.84 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.53 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -15% -4% 7% 18% 30% 41% 保利物业 恒生指数 房地产服务 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The reasons for Vanke's debt extension include high debt pressure, poor debt structure, heavy short - term repayment pressure, unfavorable asset disposal, significant sales decline, and limited external support due to its "no actual controller" equity structure [4][49]. - The impact of Vanke's debt extension is analyzed from four aspects: whether it is unexpected, the scope and degree of impact determined by debt volume and investor participation, the representativeness of Vanke, and policy responses. Overall, the short - term impact is controllable, mainly affecting weakly - qualified private and state - owned real estate enterprises, and it may be the starting point of market credit risk preference differentiation [2][5][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. How did Vanke reach the debt extension? - Since 2025, Vanke has experienced a series of events such as the departure of the original management, the arrest of the chairman, borrowing support from Shenzhen Metro, and the failure of Shenzhen Metro's consolidation plan. These events foreshadowed the debt extension [11]. 2. Why did the debt extension happen? 2.1 High debt pressure remains the core - As of the end of September 2025, Vanke's interest - bearing debt reached 362.9 billion yuan, a record high. The proportion of interest - bearing debt due within one year was 42.7%, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio was only 0.48. After excluding restricted funds, the debt pressure is even greater [4][15]. - Despite Shenzhen Metro's cumulative borrowing of 30.796 billion yuan to Vanke, Vanke still faces prominent liquidity pressure. The asset disposal and sales situation are not optimistic, and there is still a certain bond repayment pressure [17][19][21]. 2.2 Vanke is not a pure state - owned enterprise - From the equity structure, Shenzhen Metro is the major shareholder but not the actual controller. Vanke is recognized as "no actual controller", which is different from pure state - owned enterprises [25]. 3. How to view the impact of the debt extension? 3.1 Lessons, development, and enlightenment from Yongmei's default - In 2020, Yongmei's default had a huge impact on the market, triggering concerns about Henan coal enterprises and "debt evasion", and shaking the foundation of credit analysis. It also led to an impact on the entire urban investment bond market, with a significant widening of credit spreads and a differentiation in credit risk preferences [28][31]. 3.2 Was Vanke's debt extension unexpected? - Before the debt extension, the market was optimistic about Vanke due to expectations of policy and external support. Therefore, Vanke's debt extension was unexpected, but it also seemed reasonable [39]. 3.3 How to assess the scope and degree of impact? - Vanke's total interest - bearing debt is large, but the remaining domestic bond scale is less than 20 billion yuan. Public funds hold a relatively small amount of Vanke's bonds, while large - scale and volatility - resistant wealth management and banks are the main holders, so the market impact is relatively small [40][42]. 3.4 What is Vanke's representativeness? - Vanke has labels such as real estate enterprise, mixed - ownership, and high debt pressure. Its debt extension may affect weakly - qualified private real estate enterprises (including mixed - ownership), weakly - qualified state - owned real estate enterprises, weakly - qualified state - owned industrial entities, and weakly - qualified urban investment entities. The short - term impact is controllable, mainly affecting weakly - qualified private and state - owned real estate enterprises [5][43][51]. 4. Summary - The reasons for Vanke's debt extension are high debt pressure, poor debt structure, heavy short - term repayment pressure, unfavorable asset disposal, significant sales decline, and limited external support [49]. - The analysis of the impact of credit risk events can be summarized into four aspects: whether the event is unexpected, the scope and degree of impact determined by debt volume and investor participation, the representativeness of the subject, and policy responses [50]. - Vanke's debt extension may be the starting point of market credit risk preference differentiation, indicating that credit risk still exists [52].

规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.27 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 162.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.98 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.04 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com | 联系人 王汉学 | | --- | | wanghx01@ctsec.com | 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 三大决策"省际班车"+"有偿派费"+"股份改革"实现弯道超车。 公司凭借对加盟快递商业本质洞察开通省际班车、推行有偿派费、进行股份制 改革，最终在后期实现弯道超车，2016 年成为加盟制快递龙头。 ❖ 加盟快递行业龙头，业绩增长相对稳健。公司市占率排名在通达系中居首， 2025Q3 市占率 19.4%，较 2025H ...

Profit Trends - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of 21.6%[6] - The decline in profit growth is attributed to a combination of falling production volumes and rising prices, alongside a decrease in profit margins[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in October was approximately 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September, deviating from the typical seasonal increase observed in previous years[12] Sector Analysis - The mining sector experienced a revenue decline, with coal mining and non-metallic mineral extraction showing monthly revenue growth rates of -13.9% and -23.9%, respectively[20] - The beverage and alcohol manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 3.0%, up 27.8 percentage points from the previous value, but the profit margin fell to 13.5%, down 4.8 percentage points[20] - Equipment manufacturing continues to lead in revenue growth and maintains a relatively high profit margin, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[20] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, a slight improvement from September's decline of 2.3%[8] - Seasonal factors related to winter heating demand contributed to price increases in coal mining and processing, with prices rising by 1.6% and 0.8% respectively in October[20] - The overall industrial profit total for October was 577.1 billion yuan, marking a 103.1 billion yuan decrease from September, the lowest level for the same period since 2020[12] Future Outlook - Excluding base effects, there may be a marginal recovery in industrial enterprise profits in November and December, although the base effect could continue to exert downward pressure[21] - Factors such as prolonged holidays and trade tensions have impacted October's industrial profits, but these disturbances are expected to dissipate[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not achieve the desired effects, and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations could arise[25]

"IP+大店+体验"，重构零售渠道 名创优品(09896) 证券研究报告 商贸零售 / 公司跟踪研究报告 / 2025.11.27 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 38.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.38 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.50 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.38 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -7% 5% 17% 29% 41% 名创优品 恒生指数 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 数据来源：wind 数据，财通证券研究所（以 2025 年 11 月 26 日收盘价计算） 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 场景化+策展式大店重构消费体验。乐园系大店凭借 IP 沉浸式体验拉升品 牌价值，涵盖三大核心店态。1）MINISO LAND：门店面积 1000-2000 ㎡， IP 产品占比 70- 80%。以 "城市 IP 沉 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Excluding high-end retail and Yintai, the same-store revenue growth was 15% [7] - The core e-commerce segment showed a significant increase, with a 15.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. The customer management revenue also grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [7] - The cloud business is entering an accelerated growth phase, with a 34% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 28%. AI-related revenue continues to grow at triple-digit rates [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,039.89 billion yuan, 1,137.30 billion yuan, and 1,262.70 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024A: 941,168 million yuan - 2025A: 996,347 million yuan - 2026E: 1,039,890 million yuan - 2027E: 1,137,296 million yuan - 2028E: 1,262,700 million yuan [6] - The projected net profit for the same years is: - 2024A: 79,741 million yuan - 2025A: 129,470 million yuan - 2026E: 120,305 million yuan - 2027E: 152,779 million yuan - 2028E: 189,139 million yuan [6] - The company’s EPS is projected to be 4.10 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 9.91 yuan by 2028E [6] Market Performance - The company has shown a market performance of -6% over the last 12 months, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Robotaxi industry [1]. Core Insights - Xiaoma Zhixing has achieved single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou, with a revenue of $60.88 million for the first three quarters, including $9.95 million from Robotaxi, representing a year-on-year increase of 112%. The company aims to reach 1,000 vehicles by the end of the year and plans to expand to over 3,000 vehicles in 2026, with a 20% reduction in BOM costs for the seventh-generation autonomous driving suite [3]. - WeRide has seen significant revenue growth, with a total of 371 million RMB and 97 million RMB from Robotaxi, marking a year-on-year increase of 457%. The company is expanding its presence in the Middle East, with 150 Robotaxis currently operating in Abu Dhabi, expecting to grow to tens of thousands by 2030 [3]. - Tesla and Waymo are accelerating their city launch plans, with Tesla obtaining a TNC license in Arizona and completing self-certification in Nevada. Waymo has updated its expansion to include cities like Houston and Orlando [3]. - The report recommends investing in Xiaoma Zhixing (PONYO), Horizon Robotics-W, and XPeng Motors-W, while suggesting to monitor Tesla, Qianli Technology, Didi Global, Uber, Cao Cao Mobility, and Ruqi Mobility [3]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The report notes a recent market performance of -7% for the automotive sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. - **Company Performance**: Xiaoma Zhixing and WeRide are highlighted for their strong revenue growth and operational advancements in the Robotaxi sector [3]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests a focus on domestic companies with high revenue growth and rapid commercial progress, alongside international players expanding their operations [3].