25Q4 财报点评：业绩超预期，国际化驱动延续 携程集团-S(09961) 证券研究报告 旅游及景区 / 公司点评 / 2026.02.27 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-02-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 400.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.14 | | 每股净资产(元) | 204.59 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.14 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -16% -6% 4% 14% 25% 35% 携程集团-S 恒生指数 分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 分析师 罗婉琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090005 luowq@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《国内 OTA 龙头，海外增长前景广阔》 2025-09-11 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating revenue of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same quarter was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance transaction efficiency and service quality, positioning itself for long-term growth [7] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 71.7 billion RMB, 81.9 billion RMB, and 91.8 billion RMB respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 19.1 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.8 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects operating revenue of 53.3 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 19.73% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 17.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 72.08% year-over-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 26.10 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.03 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected to be 11.97% [6] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue for Q4 2025 was 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings [7] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The revenue from vacation services was 1.1 billion RMB, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, primarily due to an increase in corporate clients [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The CDN industry is undergoing a transformation driven by AI, evolving from static caching to intelligent computing, with a projected global market growth from $27.8 billion in 2025 to over $79.2 billion by 2034, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% [7][19] - The rise of AI is reshaping the CDN landscape, as service providers transition from low-margin bandwidth intermediaries to high-stickiness edge cloud suppliers, emphasizing the importance of technology and compliance in the new ecosystem [71] Summary by Sections CDN Transition to AI Era - The CDN market is entering the AI and computing 4.0 era, evolving from static resource acceleration to intelligent edge services [11] - The CDN industry is positioned in the midstream of the network service value chain, with upstream hardware vendors and telecom operators providing foundational infrastructure [14] - The global CDN market is expected to grow significantly due to demands from video streaming, gaming, and AI, with North America leading the market [19][23] AI and Edge Computing - The demand for "CDN + edge computing" is reshaping the industry ecosystem, as traditional roles of CDN and origin servers are evolving to meet the needs of real-time interactions and AI inference [28][37] - CDN providers are becoming essential platforms for edge computing, leveraging their extensive global nodes to facilitate real-time processing and reduce upstream traffic costs [42] CDN and Edge Preprocessing - The industry is entering a "Tokens explosion" era, with token consumption expected to increase tenfold by 2026, prompting CDNs to shift towards edge preprocessing [44] - Data sovereignty issues are leading CDNs to potentially act as intermediaries in value exchanges between AI and content creators, allowing for new revenue models [49] Financial Metrics of Major CDN Providers - Cloudflare is rapidly growing its revenue through a subscription model, while Akamai focuses on large enterprise clients, showcasing different business strategies [52] - In 2025, Cloudflare's revenue is projected to reach $2.168 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 29.8%, while Akamai's revenue is expected to be $4.208 billion, growing at 5.4% [55][56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technologically advanced and commercially viable CDN service providers such as Cloudflare, Akamai, Fastly, and Wangsu Technology [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The industry is witnessing a threefold evolution in overseas large models, focusing on reasoning foundation, action implementation, and ecological reconstruction, with major players like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and OpenClaw leading the charge [7] - Domestic large model companies are breaking through through open-source foundations, efficiency optimization, and collaborative agent ecosystems, with firms like Z.ai, MiniMax, Kimi, Alibaba, and ByteDance showcasing diverse strategies [7] - The industry trend indicates a shift from generation to action, with competition centering on supply efficiency and ecological reconstruction, emphasizing task complexity and ROI as key growth drivers [7] Summary by Sections Overseas Large Model Evolution - Anthropic has completed a dual-version model iteration, focusing on enterprise workflows and enhancing coding and long-range agent capabilities [11] - OpenAI is concentrating on long-range task closure and tool execution, evolving its models to become collaborative productivity assistants [25] - Google has released Gemini 3.1 Pro to enhance reasoning capabilities and Lyria 3 to expand into audio creation, reinforcing its competitive edge [32][40] - OpenClaw is positioned as a self-hosted gateway, integrating multiple communication channels and supporting tool-based agents [43] Domestic Large Model Breakthroughs - Z.ai's GLM-5 aims to extend open-source model capabilities to complex systems and long-range agent tasks, with a focus on engineering deployment [48] - MiniMax's M2.5 emphasizes real-world productivity, optimizing costs and throughput to facilitate agent scalability [53] - Kimi's K2.5 leverages a multi-modal MoE architecture to enhance visual understanding and parallel agent execution [65] - Alibaba's Qwen3.5-Plus focuses on open-source upgrades and multi-modal transitions to drive agent scalability [73] - ByteDance's recent model releases aim to transition AI capabilities from dialogue to actual task execution [81] Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from generation to action, with a focus on supply efficiency and ecological reconstruction, as evidenced by the increase in token processing volumes and the emergence of efficiency-friendly models [89]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In February 2026, China began soliciting public opinions on the L3 strong standards, completing the draft of "Safety Requirements for Autonomous Driving Systems of Intelligent Connected Vehicles" on February 5, 2026. The public consultation for this and four other mandatory national standards started on February 12, 2026, and will end on April 13, 2026. This strong standard primarily targets L3 and L4 levels of autonomous driving, replacing the recommended standard GB/T 44721-2024 [4] - The proposed implementation date for the L3 strong standard is July 1, 2027. The standard includes mandatory (GB) and recommended (GB/T) classifications, with violations of the mandatory standard leading to legal consequences. The L3 strong standard has completed the drafting phase and is currently in the public consultation stage, followed by review, approval, and publication [4] - Earlier, China approved L3 vehicles for road testing, with two models from Changan and BAIC Blue Valley receiving approval for road access trials on December 15, 2025. These models will undergo the next phase of road testing, with specific requirements set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4] - Investment recommendations include: 1) Vehicle manufacturers: Jianghuai Automobile, Xpeng Motors-W; 2) Component suppliers: Bertley, Coboda, Nexperia, Horizon Robotics-W, among others. Attention is also recommended for Huayi Technology [4] Summary by Sections - **L3 Strong Standards**: The draft for L3 strong standards has been completed and is open for public consultation, with a focus on safety requirements for autonomous driving systems [4] - **Implementation Timeline**: The strong standard is set to be implemented by July 1, 2027, following a series of approval processes [4] - **Road Testing Approvals**: Two L3 models have been approved for road testing, indicating progress in the industry [4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Specific companies are recommended for investment based on the ongoing developments in autonomous driving policies [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][12] Core Insights - Overall industry sales performance slightly exceeded expectations; liquor met expectations while the restaurant chain outperformed [4] - The food and beverage sector showed strong sales during the Spring Festival, with a positive outlook for post-holiday inventory replenishment [7] Summary by Category - **Liquor**: Overall performance met expectations, with a projected decline in single to double digits. Notable performances from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu performed better [4] - **Snacks**: Maintained good sales during the Spring Festival, with double-digit growth expected. High-end gift boxes performed well, although high-priced gift boxes showed weaker sales. Positive feedback from bulk snack channels [4] - **Restaurant Chain**: B-end performance of condiments exceeded pre-holiday expectations, with overall sales expected to grow by double digits. Leading frozen food company Anjijia performed exceptionally well [4] - **Dairy Products**: Sales during the Spring Festival showed recovery, with liquid milk returning to positive growth and significant improvements in freshness, while price competition has eased [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the restaurant chain, followed by snacks and certain liquor brands. Recommended liquor stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Jiu. For consumer goods, recommended stocks include Anjijia, Angel Yeast, Yihai International, Weidong, and Wancheng Group [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's focus on improving cost control efficiency, with a sales expense ratio of 30.4% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points. The new chairman, Mr. Gao Li, is expected to implement more precise financial management strategies while maintaining business growth [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance production efficiency by 20%-30% through digital upgrades. The company has ample room for development in digitalization, having previously implemented management systems that could lead to a fully digitalized supply chain [7] - The company is reforming its distribution channels by reducing channel layers and enhancing single-layer profits, which is expected to improve channel efficiency and customer engagement. Although this may cause short-term performance pain, it is projected to strengthen the company's control over the terminal market in the long run [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 11.058 billion, 11.823 billion, and 12.670 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -18%, +7%, and +7% [8] - The projected net profit for the same years is 962 million, 1.209 billion, and 1.403 billion RMB, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -41%, +26%, and +16% [8] - The report estimates the company's PE ratios to be 26X, 21X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Market Performance and Business Outlook - The company's bottled water business faces challenges due to industry price wars, with a market share decline of approximately 3 percentage points for its flagship brand, Yibao, in the first half of 2025. However, the bottled water market is expected to grow, with the pure water market projected to reach 179.8 billion RMB by 2028 [9] - The beverage segment is diversifying with new product launches, including herbal drinks, sugar-free tea, sports drinks, and ready-to-drink coffee. The company introduced 14 new SKUs in H1 2025, marking a historical high in innovation density [9]

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, A-shares experienced a "slow bull" trend, with industrial enterprises' profits increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, ending three years of negative growth from 2022 to 2024, but this growth was significantly lower than the overall A-share non-financial index[5] - The average sales net profit margin for the entire A-share market in Q3 2025 was 9.5%, higher than the seasonal average of 9.1% from 2021 to 2024, while the profit margin for industrial enterprises was only 5.5%[15] - The correlation between the profit growth of industrial enterprises and the profit growth of the entire A-share non-financial sector reached 79.6% since 2011, indicating a strong relationship between macroeconomic indicators and market performance[21] Group 2: Profitability Discrepancies - The average profit growth rate of A-share industrial companies was 6.2 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises from 2012 to 2025, but in the first three quarters of 2025, it was 0.2 percentage points lower[22] - The exclusion of profits from overseas subsidiaries showed that the profit growth of A-share industrial companies was more closely related to domestic profit growth, as overseas revenue contributed significantly to higher profit growth rates[28] - The higher the proportion of overseas revenue in specific industries, the greater the extent to which A-share companies' profit growth exceeded that of industrial enterprises[30] Group 3: Cash Flow Dynamics - Since 2025, A-share non-financial companies have seen significant improvements in operating cash flow, with net operating cash flow increasing by 36.0% and 17.7% in Q2 and Q3 respectively[31] - Investment cash inflows and outflows have shown a marginal slowdown, with Q3 2025 inflows increasing by 32.9% and outflows by 19.4%, indicating sustained high activity levels despite a decrease from earlier quarters[32] - The major source of operating cash inflow was from sales, contributing 94.7%, while cash outflows were primarily from purchasing goods and services, accounting for 78.5%[39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its new energy business and entering new fields such as liquid cooling servers, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [8][29]. - The company has a strong focus on precision components, with significant revenue contributions from automotive electronics, which accounted for 52% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][20]. - The company has established partnerships with various clients, including Panasonic and Nidec, and is diversifying its product offerings in the new energy sector [29][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in precision component manufacturing, with a global customer base [12]. - It has expanded its operations internationally, with revenue from outside mainland China increasing from 46% in 2021 to 56% in the first half of 2025 [12][16]. 2. Business Segments - The company’s products are primarily used in three sectors: automotive electronics, smart terminals, and consumer electronics [20]. - Automotive electronics have become the largest revenue contributor, with a significant increase in revenue share from 32% in 2021 to 52% in 2025 [20][24]. 3. Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline of 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.328 billion yuan [24][27]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38% year-on-year to 119 million yuan during the same period [27][28]. 4. New Energy Business Development - The company has been actively developing its new energy vehicle business since 2018, collaborating with Panasonic to enhance its product offerings [29]. - It has successfully expanded its product range to include precision components for electric control systems and has entered the lidar and millimeter-wave radar markets [29][33]. 5. Liquid Cooling and Server Structure Components - The company is leveraging the rapid growth of the liquid cooling market, with expectations of significant revenue contributions from this segment [35][36]. - Collaborations with companies like Green Cloud are underway to develop liquid cooling server technologies [37]. 6. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 18.1 billion, 22.9 billion, and 27.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.66 billion, 2.09 billion, and 2.69 billion yuan [3][45]. - The company’s PE ratios for the same period are forecasted to be 44.60, 35.37, and 27.48, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2][43]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive interior parts sector and is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics business [7]. - The company has established strong relationships with major global automotive manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Toyota, ensuring a stable customer base [7]. - The company has a robust growth forecast, with expected revenues of 70.85 billion, 79.89 billion, and 91.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 8.99 billion, 10.31 billion, and 12.01 billion yuan [7][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Service to Global Major Automakers - The company focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of passenger vehicle parts, establishing itself as a leader in the automotive supply chain [11]. - The company has maintained steady revenue growth, with total revenues of 58.61 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.9% [12]. - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the controlling shareholders holding a significant portion of shares [16]. 2. Leading Technological Advantages - The company has achieved technological leadership in areas such as synchronous development and mold manufacturing [20]. - The company has expanded its global sales and service capabilities, establishing production bases in the US, France, Mexico, and Vietnam [24]. 3. Establishment of Humanoid Robotics Subsidiary - The humanoid robotics industry is rapidly developing, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [30]. - The company plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai Daimai Robotics Technology Co., Ltd., to enter the robotics sector [35]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 70.9 billion, 79.9 billion, and 91.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [41]. - The report provides a comparative analysis of the company's valuation against peers, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's stock [43].