证券研究报告 政策点评 / 2025.09.17 分析师 窦子豪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525040003 douzh@ctsec.com 关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施的学习体会 分析师 张尤 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070001 zhangyou@ctsec.com 2025-09-01 2. 《特朗普降息再施压——全球经济观察 第 10 期》 2025-08-30 3. 《以价换量结束了吗？》 2025-08-27 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 事件：9 月 16 日，商务部等九部门联合印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策 措施》，围绕培育服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务供给、激发消费新增 量、加强财政金融支持，以及健全统计监测制度五大重点方向，提出十九项 具体可行措施，旨在多措并举推动服务消费提质扩容，释放内需潜力。 相关报告 1. 《企业加大预防性"备采"力度》 文旅建设方面：文件强调，推进消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设，盘 活现有场馆资源，结合实际延长场馆景区开放时间，优化预约服务，并鼓励 创新展览方式。近年来，我国文旅融合新业态蓬勃发展，2023 年全国文化及 相关产业增 ...

| 基本数据 | 2025-09-15 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 16.27 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 35.49 | | 每股净资产(元) | 2.24 | | 总股本(亿股) | 35.49 | 最近 12 月市场表现 收购云之家，强化订阅优先与 AI 优先发展战略 金蝶国际(00268) 证券研究报告 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.09.16 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | --- | 相关报告 1. 《国产 ERP 龙头，云+AI 转型形势明朗》 2025-08-14 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 5,679 | 6,256 | 7,008 | 7,900 | 8,954 | | 收入增长率(%) | 16.71 | 10.15 | 12.03 | 12.74 | 13.33 | | 归母净利润(百万) | -210 | ...

第二批科创债 ETF 上市，再探如何配置 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 孟万林 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030002 mengwl@ctsec.com 分析师 涂靖靖 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030001 tujj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 新规后的市场矛盾与展望》 2025-09-15 2. 《转债新券双涨停后迎来空窗期？》 2025-09-14 3. 《期货｜5 月以来的最后一跌？》 2025-09-14 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.09.16 核心观点 第二批 14 只科创债 ETF 迎来首发，多只基金募集金额接近 30 亿元募集上限，合计 约达 400 亿元。对科创债 ETF 指数成分券会有什么影响？当前成分券还有机会吗？ ❖ 最近信用债 ETF 表现如何？ 债市连续调整，信用债 ETF 总规模仍在 8 月实现增长，目前在 3500 亿元附近，整 体未见明显赎回。其中科创债 ETF 贡献大部分规模增量，基准做市信用债 ETF 规模 则出现一定下滑。年初至今，沪城投债指数的涨 ...

房地产行业跟踪周报 房地产 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.09.15 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 0% 11% 22% 34% 45% 56% 房地产 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《地产政策博弈交易的有效性为何逐渐走 弱？》 2025-09-05 2. 《地产新视角：城市扩张对房地产销售的 挑战与影响》 2025-04-11 3. 《2025 年两会政府工作报告点评》 2025-03-05 新房成交同比上升，持续推进存量土地盘活 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 板块观点 5 | | --- | --- | | 2 | 房地产基本面与高频数据 6 | | 2.1 | 房产市场情况 6 | | 2.2 | 土地市场情况 10 | | 2.3 | 房地产行业融资情况 11 | | 3 | 行情回顾 13 | | 4 | 行业政策跟踪 15 | | 5 | 投资建议 ...

第二批科创债 ETF 集体结募—公募基金周报 证券研究报告 基金周报 / 2025.09.15 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《二季度末资管产品总规模达 75.38 万 亿元—公募基金周报》 2025-09-08 2. 《公募基金首破 35 万亿元—公募基金周 报》 2025-09-02 3. 《FOF 基金 2025 年二季报分析：偏股 型 FOF 业绩领先，增配债券型基金》 2025-07-31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 重要资讯：指数密集"上新"为市场提供更精细化投资工具；公募机构大力 布局增强指数型基金；QDII 基金总规模年内增长 26.5%。 ❖ 市场回顾：上周（20250908-20250912，下同）A 股市场主要宽基指数呈现 上涨趋势。截至上周五收盘，上证指数收于 3870.60，上涨 1.52% ...

36W2025 周报 白色家电 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.09.15 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 孙谦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060001 sunqian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 红 利 为 正 ， 新 品 类 为 奇 》 2025-09-11 核心观点 一文读懂奥克斯电气 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 0% 9% 17% 26% 35% 43% 白色家电 沪深300 2. 《25W28 周度研究》 2025-07-24 3. 《25W25 周度研究》 2025-06-30 ❖ 公司基本情况：奥克斯电气目前设计、制造和销售各类空调产品，包括：(i) 家用空调系列，如畅享风系列主打舒适轻柔风，四季新风系列具备高效换鲜 氧功能，净享风系列侧重健康空气净化，奥知音套系以语音智控为核心优势 等；(ii) 中央空调系列，包含多联机、单元机、热泵、模块机及末端设备等 品类。公司采用了线上线下融合的渠道模式，线上通过与微博、抖音、小红 书等社交平台合作，构建全域全场景社交传播矩阵；线下借助 "小奥直卖" 数字化平台覆盖大部分经销商，并通过举办音乐节、 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance within the social services sector, with leading companies outperforming their peers [5][7] - The overall revenue for the service consumption sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year in 1H2025, reaching 134% of 2019 levels, while profits declined by 11.5%, recovering to 79% of 2019 levels [12][15] - Key segments such as K12 education, human resources, and scenic areas showed both revenue and profit growth, while hotels, restaurants, tourism retail, and higher education faced challenges [12][13] Social Services Overview - In 1H2025, K12 training and human resources sectors saw revenue growth of 14.4% and 10.7%, respectively, with net profits increasing by 39.5% and 49.8% [12][15] - Scenic areas also reported growth, with revenues up by 3.9% and net profits by 2.4% [15] - Conversely, the hotel sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.5% and a significant profit drop of 40.6% [13][15] Travel Services - The hotel industry remains under pressure, with leading hotels like Huazhu Group and Shoulv Hotel showing resilience despite a decline in RevPAR [16][19] - In 1H2025, leading hotels continued to expand, with Huazhu adding 990 new hotels [16][18] - OTA companies benefited from overall travel demand, with significant growth in overseas business [7][24] Scenic Areas and OTA - Domestic tourism numbers surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a 20.6% increase in travel volume in 1H2025 [24] - Scenic area performance varied, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism showing strong growth, while Changbai Mountain faced challenges due to weather [29] - The average ticket price for domestic travel has not fully recovered, remaining at 95% of 2019 levels [24] Professional Services - The human resources sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with companies like Keri International and BOSS Zhipin performing well [7][16] - The education sector, particularly K12 training, continues to thrive, with a focus on AI applications enhancing efficiency [7][16] - The exhibition industry is awaiting macroeconomic improvements to boost performance [7][16] Restaurant and Tea Beverage Sector - The restaurant industry is under pressure, with same-store sales declining, while budget-friendly dining options are showing resilience [7][12] - The tea beverage sector is expanding, with leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming performing exceptionally well [7][12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the automotive market in August showed a stable trend, with retail sales reaching 1.995 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 14.741 million units, up 9.5% year-on-year [4][9][13] - The report highlights that the automotive market is transitioning towards "reducing price cuts and stabilizing promotions," with 23 models experiencing price reductions in August, compared to 29 in the same month last year [4][9][13] - The report notes that Zhibao Zhixing (formerly Zhibao Network) has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with projected revenues of 805 million, 872 million, and 824 million RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a decline of 5.4% in 2024 [5][29][30] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on companies with a leading position in automotive intelligence and advanced software capabilities, including Ruiming Technology, Daotong Technology, Huace Navigation, Desay SV, and others [6][32] - The report emphasizes that the penetration rate of automotive intelligence is expected to increase, driven by consumer demand and policy support, although there are risks associated with the pace of this growth [6][33]

Inflation Overview - August CPI year-on-year growth increased to 2.9%, up from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year growth remained stable but slightly increased by 0.05 percentage points[3] Commodity Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth reached 1.5%, the highest since June 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points[4] - Used car prices surged, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 1%[4] - New car prices increased to a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[4] Energy Inflation - CPI energy component year-on-year growth turned positive at 0.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Brent crude oil average price fell to $68.4 per barrel, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions[11] Service Inflation - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight month-on-month decrease to 0.3%[4] - Owner's equivalent rent year-on-year growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4%[4] Market Expectations - Market anticipates an average of 2.9 interest rate cuts within the year, with a strong expectation for a cut in September[4] - Recent labor market adjustments indicate a potential oversupply, impacting inflation expectations[4] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and potential over-tightening by the Federal Reserve[23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a single large product-driven growth model to a multi-innovative drug-driven growth model, with several innovative drugs entering late-stage clinical trials and market launch [8][17]. - The company maintains a solid leading position in growth hormone products, with multiple innovative drugs opening up new growth opportunities [8][17]. - The newly launched products, such as the nano-crystal form of medroxyprogesterone and the IL-1β inhibitor, are expected to address significant market needs and have the potential to become major products [8][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive development enterprise focused on gene-engineered biopharmaceuticals, with its main asset being Changchun Jinsai Pharmaceutical [13]. - The company has a broad business scope, including gene engineering drugs, biological vaccines, and modern traditional Chinese medicine [13]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue slightly declined, with a projected revenue of 13.466 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.55% [8][16]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop significantly in 2024, with a forecast of 2.583 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.01% year-on-year [7][16]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses rising from 349 million yuan in 2017 to 2.69 billion yuan in 2024, representing 19.97% of revenue [21][24]. - The company has multiple innovative products in the pipeline, including the recently approved IL-1β inhibitor, which marks a shift from a focus on growth hormones to a broader innovative drug strategy [23][54]. Market Opportunities - The newly launched nano-crystal form of medroxyprogesterone significantly improves patient compliance and accessibility, addressing the challenges of traditional formulations [31][53]. - The approval of the IL-1β inhibitor for acute gout attacks is expected to provide a new treatment option, enhancing the company's product offerings in the pain management market [54]. Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 134.08 billion yuan in 2025, 142.99 billion yuan in 2026, and 155.19 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 22.24 billion yuan, 23.01 billion yuan, and 24.58 billion yuan [8][7].