坚定的鲍威尔与鸽派的理事 ——美联储 7 月议息会议点评 证券研究报告 固收点评报告 / 2025.07.31 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 相关报告 3. 《信用债调整的对比：历史与当下》 2025-07-28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 1. 《利率｜宏观政策的预见性在于货币》 2025-07-30 2. 《基金 | 平 衡 收 益 与 风 险 的 艺 术 ——2Q2025 货基季报点评》 2025- 07-29 ❖ FOMC 决议温和，依旧强调经济不确定性：联邦基金利率维持不变符合 预期，决议整体基调温和，一方面承认上半年经济增速放缓，另一方面认 为当前经济状况较之 6 月确定性并无显著提升，故而维持利率不变，静待 更多经济数据进行判断。两位理事（鲍曼和沃勒）投出反对票，认为 7 月 应该降息，显示美联储内部观点存在一定程度分化。决议发出的五分钟内， 市场价格反映相对较小。标普 500 指数下跌 0.08%；2 年期美国国债收 益率上 ...

核心观点 ❖ 消费、投资延续转弱。美国二季度 GDP 环比折年率反弹至 3%，实际同比 增速持平于 2%，自 2023 年三季度以来呈下行趋势。从分项同比增速来看， 消费、投资、政府支出均有放缓。美国企业"抢进口"在二季度减弱，且同比 增速录得 2023 年年底以来，除今年一季度以外的新低，指向美国需求仍在 转弱。今年二季度，私人国内实际最终购买（PDFP）环比折年率继续下降至 二季度的 1.2%，为 2023 年一季度以来新低，指向美国内需延续放缓。消费 方面，商品、服务消费同比增速均有下行，服务同比贡献减少更多，或反映居 民选择性支出减少。投资方面，高利率仍在抑制居民购房热情，同时非住宅项 下的建筑项投资同比增速均延续下滑，房地产市场继续转弱。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《进口拖累，投资补位——美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 数据解读》 2025-05-01 2 . 《美国经济平稳减速——美国 2024 年 四季度 GDP 数据解读》 202 ...

饲料主业景气延续，内外销量较快增长 海大集团(002311) 证券研究报告 饲料 / 公司点评 / 2025.07.29 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-07-28 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 55.19 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 16.63 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 16.64 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% -6% 8% 21% 35% 48% 海大集团 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《饲料主业优势稳固，海外拓展增长可 期》 2025-04-22 2. 《饲料销量逆势增长，养殖体现盈利弹 性》 2024-10-20 3. 《饲料主业竞争优势稳固，养殖专业化稳 健发展》 2024-07-30 核心观点 ❖ 风险提示：极端天气导致出栏减少；原材料价格大幅波动；饲料行业竞争加剧 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the stock and bond markets both performed well, boosting the expansion of the fund industry. Although bond funds face certain redemption pressure in the short term, the current internal economic momentum is weak, the logic of asset shortage continues, and the monetary policy guides sufficient liquidity. There is no pressure for a trend adjustment in the bond market. It is expected that the scale of bond funds will continue to increase steadily in the third quarter, and the scale increase of equity - containing products may exceed that of the second quarter [6]. - The share and net asset value of the entire market's funds increased in the second quarter. The scale of bond funds increased significantly. In terms of positions, the overall allocation ratio of the entire market's funds to bonds and stocks decreased, while the allocation ratio of cash increased significantly. Among them, the bond allocation mainly showed an increase in the allocation of treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds, and a decrease in the allocation of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6]. - The performance of equity - containing products rebounded more. Among them, the performance of long - term bonds was better than that of short - term bonds, and the performance of hybrid second - tier bond funds was better than that of hybrid first - tier bond funds. Although the performance of hybrid funds was good, the scale declined. The main reasons are that the return gap between hybrid funds and second - tier bond funds is not obvious, and the risk level is higher; and the return of hybrid funds is lower than that of stock - type funds, and the recovery of risk appetite drives the scale of stock - type funds to rise, thus suppressing the hybrid funds [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fund Total Scale Rises, Bond Allocation Scale Increases - **1.1 Fund Market Scale: Fund Shares and Net Asset Value Both Increase** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, there were approximately 1.29 trillion funds in total, with a market share of about 30.90 trillion shares and a net asset value of about 33.72 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of the first quarter of 2025, the number of various funds increased by 2.44%, the market share increased by 5.14%, and the net asset value increased by 6.68% [21]. - The net asset value of hybrid funds slightly decreased, while that of other types of funds increased. The net asset value of bond - type funds increased significantly. The total share of bond funds in the second quarter of 2025 was 9.60 trillion shares, a 6.27% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025; the net asset value of bond - type funds was about 10.91 trillion yuan, an 8.54% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025 [25][32]. - The outstanding shares of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds increased. The new - issue shares of actively managed and passively managed bond funds both increased slightly quarter - on - quarter but decreased significantly year - on - year [36][45]. - **1.2 Fund Asset Allocation: Bond Allocation Ratio Decreases Slightly, Cash Allocation Ratio Increases** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total asset value of funds increased by 8.42% compared with the end of the first quarter of 2025. The market value of stocks held increased by 4.09% quarter - on - quarter, the market value of bonds held increased by 7.69% quarter - on - quarter, and the market value of cash held increased significantly by 32.30% quarter - on - quarter. The reason for the increase in cash allocation by funds is mainly due to the increase in the cash allocation ratio of money market funds [53]. - The proportion of funds held in stocks, bonds, and other assets decreased, while the proportion of cash held increased. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the proportions of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets were 19.64%, 57.80%, 12.88%, and 9.15% respectively, among which the proportion of bond - holding assets decreased by 0.39 pct quarter - on - quarter [53]. - **1.3 Fund Bond - Holding Analysis: The Allocation of Financial Bonds Increased the Most Quarter - on - Quarter** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by all funds was about 21.21 trillion yuan, a 7.69% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds increased by 7.71%, 12.82%, 8.96%, 5.33%, and 5.78% respectively quarter - on - quarter [55][56]. - The proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit held by funds decreased the most. In the bond positions of funds at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the allocation ratios of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds increased by 0.01 pct, 0.59 pct, and 0.23 pct respectively quarter - on - quarter, while the allocation ratios of inter - bank certificates of deposit and other bonds decreased by 0.78 pct and 0.05 pct respectively quarter - on - quarter [56]. 2. Bond Fund Bond - Holding Analysis - **2.1 All Bond Funds: The Total Bond - Holding Scale Increases, the Allocation Proportion of Treasury Bonds Increases, and the Allocation Proportion of Policy - Financial Bonds Decreases** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by bond - type funds was about 12.5207 trillion yuan, a 10.01% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, the market value of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds increased by 405.9 billion yuan, 292.5 billion yuan, 380.6 billion yuan, 28.2 billion yuan, and 32.4 billion yuan respectively, with quarter - on - quarter growth rates of 7.96%, 13.05%, 11.87%, 8.85%, and 6.29% respectively [61][65]. - The allocation ratios of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased. The market value of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds held by all bond funds accounted for 6.46% and 37.52% of the bond investment market value respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 1.29 pct and - 2.13 pct respectively. The allocation ratios of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills increased, while the allocation ratio of medium - term notes decreased [65][67]. - **2.2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure - Bond Funds: In Terms of Allocation Proportion, Reduce the Allocation of Policy - Financial Bonds and Increase the Allocation of Treasury Bonds** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds was about 7.7616 trillion yuan, a 5.38% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds changed by 4.47%, 6.50%, 5.86%, 0.45%, and 11.96% respectively quarter - on - quarter [71]. - In the second quarter, the allocation ratios of financial bonds and local government bonds in medium - and long - term bond funds increased the most, while the allocation ratio of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly. The market value of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds accounted for 6.74% and 42.63% of the bond investment market value respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 1.33 pct and - 1.76 pct respectively. The allocation ratios of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills decreased, while the allocation ratio of medium - term notes increased [71][74]. - **2.3 Short - Term Pure - Bond Funds: In Terms of Allocation Proportion, Reduce the Allocation of Non - Financial Credit Bonds and Increase the Allocation of Financial Bonds** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by short - term pure - bond funds was about 128.05 billion yuan, a 21.29% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds increased by 28.73%, 52.18%, 13.26%, 13.10%, and 27.17% respectively quarter - on - quarter [79]. - Compared with the first quarter of 2025, short - term pure - bond funds reduced the allocation ratios of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased the allocation ratios of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and other bonds. The market value of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds held by short - term pure - bond funds accounted for 2.02% and 11.70% of the bond investment market value respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 0.62 pct and 0.17 pct respectively. The allocation ratios of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes decreased [79][81][82]. - **2.4 Hybrid First - Tier Bond Funds: Increase the Allocation of Cash and Bonds, Mainly Increase the Allocation of Interest - Rate Bonds and Financial Bonds** - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total asset value of hybrid first - tier bond funds was about 99.45 billion yuan, a 14.55% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, the market values of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets changed by 1.85%, 15.00%, 17.19%, and - 3.39% respectively quarter - on - quarter [85]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by hybrid first - tier bond funds was about 96.11 billion yuan, a 15.00% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds changed by 25.48%, 30.68%, 4.17%, 23.63%, and 10.04% respectively quarter - on - quarter. The allocation ratios of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while the allocation ratio of credit bonds decreased significantly [85]. - In terms of proportion, hybrid first - tier bond funds significantly increased the allocation of treasury bonds and reduced the allocation of various non - financial credit bonds in the second quarter [88]. - **2.5 Hybrid Second - Tier Bond Funds: Increase the Allocation of Cash and Bonds, Mainly Increase the Allocation of Interest - Rate Bonds** - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total asset value of hybrid second - tier bond funds was about 94.03 billion yuan, a 6.94% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, the market values of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets changed by 2.66%, 7.34%, 30.18%, and - 6.07% respectively quarter - on - quarter [90]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the total value of bonds held by hybrid second - tier bond funds was about 79.61 billion yuan, a 7.34% increase from the end of the first quarter of 2025. Among them, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds changed by 18.51%, 6.18%, 7.63%, - 16.54%, and - 3.92% respectively quarter - on - quarter. The allocation ratio of interest - rate bonds increased, while the allocation ratios of other types of bonds decreased [91]. - In the second quarter, the allocation ratio of treasury bonds in hybrid second - tier bond funds increased, while the allocation ratio of policy - bank bonds decreased. The allocation ratio of medium - term notes increased, while the allocation ratios of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills decreased [95]. 3. Analysis of the Structure of Fund Heavy - Positioned Bonds: The Proportion of Treasury Bond Positions Continues to Rise - In the second quarter, bond funds mainly increased the allocation of treasury bonds and reduced the allocation of policy - financial bonds. In the heavy - positioned interest - rate bonds of bond - type funds in the second quarter of 2025, the proportions of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds were 11.62%, 1.34%, and 87.04% respectively. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the allocation ratio of treasury bonds increased by 2.70 pct, the allocation ratio of local government bonds decreased by 0.12 pct, and the allocation ratio of policy - bank bonds decreased by 2.58 pct [97]. - Bond funds increased the allocation ratio of AAA - rated industrial bonds and reduced the allocation ratios of AA +, AA, and below - AA - rated industrial bonds. In the heavy - positioned industrial bonds of bond - type funds in the second quarter of 2025, the proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below - AA industrial bonds were 94.81%, 4.59%, 0.60%, and 0.00% respectively [101]. - Bond funds increased the allocation ratios of AAA - and AA - rated urban investment bonds and reduced the allocation ratio of AA + - rated urban investment bonds. In the heavy - positioned urban investment bonds of bond - type funds in the second quarter of 2025, the proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below - AA urban investment bonds were 61.30%, 29.45%, 8.91%, and 0.34% respectively [102]. - In terms of regions, at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the heavy - positioned urban investment bonds of bond - type funds were still mainly from Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Notably, in the second quarter, the position - holding ratios of bond funds in regions such as Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region increased quarter - on - quarter, while the position - holding ratios in regions such as Hunan and Henan decreased quarter - on - quarter [105][106]. 4. Analysis of Fund Leverage and Duration: Both Leverage Ratio and Duration Increase - In the second quarter, the leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds increased. The leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 120.20%, 116.61%, and 113.83% respectively, increasing by 2.58 pct, 3.29 pct, and 1.73 pct respectively compared with the first quarter of 2025 [110]. - In the second quarter, the durations of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds increased. The durations of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 3.76 years, 4.07 years, and 3.83 years respectively, increasing by 0.79 years, 1.19 years, and 0.93 years respectively compared with the first quarter of 2025 [110]. 5. Fund Performance Analysis: The Performance of Equity - Containing Products Rebounded More - In the second quarter of 2025, the median quarterly returns of various funds were ranked as follows: stock - type funds (1.59%) > hybrid funds (1.18%) > second - tier bond funds (1.15%) > ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Full - Price Index (1.11%) > first - tier bond funds (1.08%) > medium - and long - term pure - bond funds (0.99%) > short - term pure - bond funds (0.67%) > ChinaBond CDB Bond Total Full - Price Index (0.41%) > money - market funds (0.33%) [113]. - Although the performance of hybrid funds was good, the scale declined. The main reasons are that the return gap between hybrid funds and second - tier bond funds is not obvious, and the risk level is higher; and the return of hybrid funds is lower than that of stock - type funds, and the recovery of risk appetite drives the scale of stock - type funds to rise, thus suppressing the hybrid funds [113].

听 第 第 本 信用 | 赎回可控,把握波段机会 ■ 证券研究报告 核心观点 反内卷政策影响大宗商品价格,冲击市场的通胀预期,债市大幅调整。信用 * 债收益率跟随利率上行，信用利差多走阔，其中二永债波动较大，利差上行 幅度较高。 机构行为方面,负债端最不稳定的基金公司大幅净卖出,保险公司加大买入 力度,银行理财相对稳定。机构久期交易热度仍不低,城投、产业、二永债 等中长久期交易占比仍处于较高水平。 该不该担心负反馈? t 我们认为现在谈负反馈为时尚早,概率极低。我们简单回顾 2023 年以来的 市场调整,比较典型的 2024年9月、2025年3月,市场调整幅度都远超当 前,但并未如市场所担忧的那样,形成非常明显的类似 2022年四季度那样 的负反馈。市场学习效应下,应对能力已经大幅提升,而我们当前还未发生 宏观预期的转变。 李好 lifd@ctsec.com 相关报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.07.28 分析师 引 杉彬 SAC 证书编号: S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 孟万林 SAC 证书编号: S0160525030002 mengwl@ctsec.com 分析 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan in 1H2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [8][9] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the hydration segment and rapid growth in specialty drinks, with a significant contribution from the electrolyte water category [8][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37%, with a corresponding PE ratio of 34x [8] Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 5.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.10%, and a net profit of 1.395 billion yuan, up 30.75% year-on-year [8][9] - The company expanded its terminal coverage to 4.2 million outlets, a 17% increase year-on-year, enhancing its channel capabilities [9] - The electrolyte water segment generated 1.493 billion yuan in revenue, nearly matching the total for the previous year, indicating strong demand [9] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin remained stable at 45.15% for 1H2025, with a net profit margin of 22.12% [12] - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins due to cost reductions and scale effects [12] - The net profit margin was affected by increased sales expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 16.66% in Q2, up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [12] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q2, the company's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 4.460 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [10] - The electrolyte beverage segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 190.05% year-on-year, driven by expansion in various consumer scenarios [10] - Revenue growth was observed across regions, with the North China region showing the highest growth rate of 74.10% year-on-year [11]

核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 工业盈利仍有压力 ❖ 工业企业仍然"增收不增利"：2025 年 6 月，规模以上工业企业实现利润 总额同比下降 4.3%，降幅较 5 月收窄 4.8 个百分点，工业企业盈利仍有压 力，其中以装备工业为代表的中游行业利润增长较快。6 月工业生产的韧性未 能对冲价格及利润率的拖累，经我们测算，6 月利润率对工业企业利润增速造 成了 6.9 个百分点的拖累，虽然较 5 月拖累幅度（-10.2 个百分点）边际缩 小，但企业利润率仍然在下降。 ❖ 下半年，企业盈利仍有压力：下半年美国需求可能会被前期"抢进口"透 支，参考上一轮中美贸易摩擦，2018 年-2019 年工业企业利润率连续两年下 滑，直到疫情后才有所改善。此外，关税毕竟增加了企业的成本，无论是直接 承担的关税，还是转口贸易等额外的摩擦成本，都将侵蚀工业企业的利润水 平。当前多个行业正在推动"反内卷"，上游控产提价的情况下，下游需求偏 弱的行业利润空间可能会被进一步压缩。 ❖ 装备制造业相对更具韧性：自 2025 年 4 月以来，利润率韧性方面，上游 采矿业>下游消费品制造业>中游装备制造业>公用事业>中游中间品，但是 细 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on small molecule drug conjugates (SMDCs) and related companies, highlighting their potential in cancer treatment due to their ability to enhance efficacy while reducing toxicity [1][5][17] - The report emphasizes the clinical advantages of SMDCs, including better tumor penetration, reduced toxicity to normal cells, and easier control over synthesis and costs compared to antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [5][11][12] - The report identifies domestic biopharmaceutical companies, particularly Affinivax, as leaders in the SMDC space, showcasing significant advancements in innovative cancer drug development [5][12][17] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a relative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.14 as of July 25, 2025, which is significantly higher than its historical low of 24.38, indicating a premium valuation compared to the broader market [19] - The report notes that the healthcare sector's valuation is 279% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in the industry [19] - Recent market performance indicates a 1.90% increase in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector from July 21 to July 25, 2025, ranking it 16th among 27 sub-industries [26][29] Company Focus - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in the SMDC space, including Affinivax, and those collaborating with them, such as Innovent Biologics and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing interest in innovative cancer therapies [5][17][18] - Specific companies highlighted for their innovative drug development capabilities include Innovent Biologics, Shunyi Pharmaceutical, and others, which are positioned to capitalize on the advancements in SMDC technology [5][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q2, the performance of fixed - income + funds showed significant differentiation. Convertible bond funds led with an average return of 2.70%, outperforming first - tier bond funds (1.04%), second - tier bond funds (1.16%), and partial - debt hybrid funds (1.03%). The convertible bond allocation of fixed - income + funds presented three characteristics: mid - cap expansion, credit downgrade, and increased equity nature [2][5]. - In terms of scale style, there was an active switch from large - cap to mid - cap. In Q2, the average mid - value bond holding of fixed - income + funds increased by 7.4 pct to 40.7%, and the median rose by 7.0 pct to 36.9%. The average large - value bond holding decreased by 7.6 pct to 49.5%, and the median dropped by 9.4 pct to 50.8%. The average small - value bond holding slightly increased by 0.2 pct to 9.8%, but the median remained around zero [2][5]. - The rating style concentrated on A - to AA + levels, and the funds' credit preference downgraded. In Q2, the convertible bond holding rating distribution of fixed - income + funds differed from Q1. The average holding of A - to A + convertible bonds increased by 2.2 pct to 8.2%, while the median remained at zero. The average holding of AA - to AA + convertible bonds increased by 0.1 pct to 61.0%, and the median decreased by 0.2 pct to 65.8%. The average holding of AAA - and above decreased by 2.3 pct to 30.6%, and the median dropped by 2.4 pct to 21.0% [2][7]. - The equity - debt nature style shifted to the balanced type, and the partial - debt holding declined significantly. In Q2, the equity - debt nature allocation of fixed - income + funds' convertible bond holdings changed. The average holding of balanced convertible bonds jumped by 7.1 pct to 57.8%, and the median increased by 8.5 pct to 58.3%. The average partial - debt holding decreased by 7.2 pct to 32.1%, and the median dropped by 8.4 pct to 26.9%. The average partial - equity holding slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 10.1%, but the median remained at 0% [2][8]. - In the environment of continuous prosperity in the equity market, the dumbbell strategy still has a basis for continuous superiority. One end selects dividend bonds (banks/utilities) to provide a safety cushion, and the other end focuses on technology - growth - related targets such as AI and innovative drugs. Additionally, the "anti - involution" policy drives valuation repair, and there are profit expectation difference opportunities in weak - quality industries such as automobiles and steel. Finally, pay attention to targets with better - than - expected interim reports and explore structural opportunities [2][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Market Review - Q2 fixed - income + funds' convertible bond allocation showed "mid - cap expansion, credit downgrade, and increased equity nature" characteristics. The scale style switched from large - cap to mid - cap, the rating style concentrated on A - to AA +, and the equity - debt nature style shifted to the balanced type [5][7][8] - The reasons for the style change include the redemption of large - cap bank convertible bonds, the improvement of the profit expectation of mid - cap manufacturing convertible bonds, the high premium rate of AAA - and above bonds, and the adjustment of the bond market and the structural opportunities in the stock market [5][7][9] - The dumbbell strategy is still superior. Select dividend bonds and technology - growth - related targets, pay attention to industries with valuation repair, and explore opportunities from mid - term reports [11] 2. Market Weekly Trend - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67% to 3593.66 points, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% to 463.57 points. The top three rising industries in the stock market were coal (8.00%), steel (7.55%), and non - ferrous metals (7.10%), while the top three falling industries were banks (- 2.89%), comprehensive finance (- 1.00%), and communications (- 0.47%) [12] - This week, Libo Convertible Bond and Guanghe Convertible Bond were listed. 412 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 89%. The top five in terms of increase were Tianlu Convertible Bond (69.08%), Seli Convertible Bond (35.83%), Libo Convertible Bond (32.16%), Guanghe Convertible Bond (29.80%), and Dayu Convertible Bond (28.39%), while the bottom five were Hongfeng Convertible Bond (- 13.77%), Huicheng Convertible Bond (- 13.48%), Bohui Convertible Bond (- 7.09%), Mingdian Convertible Bond (- 6.35%), and Limin Convertible Bond (- 5.69%) [14] 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reduction - This week, Chongqing Water and Asia - Pacific Technology announced convertible bond reductions. Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their convertible bond holdings, such as Huanxu Convertible Bond and Sanfang Convertible Bond [19][20][22] 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The first - level market approval rhythm is average. Yingliu Co., Ltd. (1.5 billion yuan) and Jinchengxin Co., Ltd. (2 billion yuan) passed the issuance review committee, and Longjian Co., Ltd. (1 billion yuan) was approved by the CSRC [22][23] 5. Private EB Project Update - There is no progress update on private EB projects this week [23]

Industry Overview - The defense and military industry index increased by 1.28% in the week from July 19 to July 26, ranking 24th out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry [1][7] - Over the past month, the index rose by 7.26%, ranking 13th out of 31 [1][10] - In the past year, the index has increased by 39.44%, ranking 12th out of 31 [1][12] Valuation Metrics - As of July 26, the PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 84.92, which is at the 77.27 percentile of the past ten years [1][15] - The PE-TTM for the aviation equipment sector is 76.50 (71.02 percentile), for aerospace equipment is 146.02 (95.80 percentile), for naval equipment is 53.82 (3.33 percentile), for military electronics is 103.87 (96.33 percentile), and for ground armaments is 189.72 (95.27 percentile) [1][13][15] Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks in the defense and military sector for the week include: - Boyun New Material (25.16%) - Feilihua (20.79%) - Xinyu Guoke (10.14%) - Hongdu Aviation (9.69%) - Optoelectronic Co. (9.37%) [1][18] - The worst-performing stocks include: - Tianqin Equipment (-3.40%) - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (-3.56%) - Taihao Technology (-3.89%) - Hailanxin (-3.98%) - Guorui Technology (-7.61%) [1][18] Key Industry Data Tracking - Current price of sponge titanium is 45 RMB/kg, unchanged from a week ago but down 8.16% year-on-year [1][31] - LME nickel spot price is 15,245 USD/ton, up 2.32% week-on-week and 2.97% month-on-month, but down 1.45% year-on-year [1][31] - Domestic acrylonitrile price is 8,050 RMB/ton, unchanged from a week ago, down 1.83% month-on-month, and down 11.54% year-on-year [1][33] Industry News - The Yanxin Satellite has a 1.336 billion RMB tender for launch services, with a total of 7 launches planned for 94 satellites [1][48] - The National Space Administration issued a notice to strengthen quality supervision of commercial space projects [1][48] - Conflicts occurred between Cambodia and Thailand along the border [1][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on military trade, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy as key investment themes and targets due to escalating geopolitical conflicts [1][50]