Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the relay industry [2] Core Insights - The automotive relay industry is experiencing increased demand driven by the growth of both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with significant applications in various automotive electrical systems [5][8] - The automotive industry's continuous growth is expected to boost the demand for automotive relays, with projections indicating that by 2025, vehicle production and sales in China will reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking a historical high [16] - The shift towards high-end and electric vehicles is anticipated to further drive the relay industry, as higher voltage and current requirements necessitate the use of high-voltage relays [18][33] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Relay Applications - Automotive relays are widely used in both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, controlling various electrical systems such as starting, air conditioning, lighting, and more [8] - In new energy vehicles, relays are also crucial for battery management systems and charging systems [5] 2. Demand Growth from Automotive Sales and High-End Development - The automotive market is projected to see stable growth, with new energy vehicles expected to account for over 50% of domestic new car sales by 2025, significantly influencing the relay demand [16] - The increasing complexity and requirements for high-end vehicles will lead to a higher number of relays being installed per vehicle, particularly in high-end models [15] 3. Key Companies in the Automotive Relay Industry - Meishuo Technology focuses on relay products and has a wide application range, including household appliances and automotive manufacturing [27] - Hongfa Technology is a leading company in the relay industry, producing a variety of relays and electrical products with a significant annual production capacity [31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the automotive relay industry is likely to experience steady growth, driven by increasing automotive sales and the rapid development of electric and intelligent vehicles, recommending attention to Meishuo Technology and Hongfa Technology [33]

. 1 2 1 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 任思雨 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 沃什么穷不是 浪尔完 1. 《存款搬家，新路径 》 2026-01-30 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 是不是沃什当选、沃什采取怎样的货币政策其实都不重要,重要的是，谁才 � 是当今的保罗 · 沃尔克?要解决美国的问题,只能靠颠覆性的技术进步,大幅 提高生产力,用更快的增长覆盖高额的债务。这也是美国在 80年代走出大滞 胎的根本原因。 ❖ 并不是沃尔克选择了时代，而是时代选择了沃尔克。1970年代开始的信息技 术革命的有效突破，才给沃尔克大幅加息整治通胀以及里根整顿财政纪律、 供给侧改革提供了最必要的条件和底气。没有信息技术革命的背景，沃尔克 和里根的政策可能也难以有效推行。所以，美联储其实并不重要，在 AI 技术 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - As of 4Q2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter[9] - The food and beverage sector ranks 7th among all industries in terms of heavy stockholding ratio, falling one position[9] - The total net asset size of the sample funds is approximately 3.98 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings valued at 240 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - Both active and passive funds reduced their allocations to the food and beverage sector, with active equity funds decreasing by 0.2 pct to 3.9% and passive index funds decreasing by 0.6 pct to 8.4%[15] - The allocation to the liquor sector decreased by 0.4 pct to 5.1%, while the allocation to consumer goods increased by 0.1 pct to 0.9%[19] Group 3: Stock Performance - Among the top 20 heavy stockholdings, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, with its holding ratio decreasing by 0.08 pct to 2.97%[23] - The leading liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw their holding ratios decline, while stocks in the consumer goods sector, such as Yurun Agriculture and Ximai Foods, experienced significant increases in holdings[27] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain and snack sectors, particularly during the Spring Festival period, which is expected to support industry improvement[29] - Key stocks to watch include those in the restaurant chain (e.g., Anjijia Foods, Angel Yeast) and snack sector (e.g., Wancheng Group, Wei Long) due to their potential for growth[29] Group 5: Risks - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in consumer spending, increased competition in the food and beverage industry, and potential food safety issues that could impact company operations and brand reputation[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The company, Shenghe Jingwei, is advancing its listing process on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, having submitted its prospectus and initiated the first round of inquiries [3] - The company aims to raise 4.8 billion yuan for projects related to three-dimensional multi-chip integration packaging and ultra-high-density interconnection technology, addressing the high growth demand in China's multi-chip integration packaging sector [3] - The advanced packaging industry for integrated circuits is experiencing rapid expansion, with the global market expected to grow from 101.47 billion USD in 2024 to 134.9 billion USD by 2029, driven by diverse downstream applications [3][22] - The company has established itself as a leader in the advanced packaging sector, being the largest provider of 12-inch Bumping capacity in mainland China and holding significant market shares in various advanced packaging technologies [3][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenghe Jingwei was founded in 2015 and has developed comprehensive advanced packaging services, focusing on 12-inch wafer processing and multi-chip integration packaging [7] - The management team consists of experienced professionals with extensive backgrounds in the semiconductor industry [10] Industry Development - The integrated circuit packaging and testing industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 101.47 billion USD [22] - The advanced packaging sector is expected to see a CAGR of 10.0%, with multi-chip integration packaging being the fastest-growing segment, projected to grow from 2.49 billion USD in 2019 to 8.18 billion USD by 2024 [25] Company Position in the Industry - Shenghe Jingwei holds the largest 12-inch Bumping capacity in mainland China and ranks first in revenue for 2.5D technology in the region, with an 85% market share [29] - The company provides full-process advanced packaging services for various high-performance chips, including those used in artificial intelligence and data centers [29] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.178 billion yuan and a net profit of 435 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [15] - The gross margins for the company's main business segments are 43.76% for wafer processing, 5.69% for wafer-level packaging, and 30.63% for multi-chip integration packaging [17] Customer Concentration - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 90.87% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, highlighting the competitive nature of the advanced packaging market [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor packaging industry is experiencing a price increase due to rising costs in testing and packaging services, with major players like Daymoon and Taiwanese firms initiating price hikes of 5%-20% and close to 30% respectively [5] - The demand for semiconductor packaging is driven by the expansion of data centers and the recovery of orders in industrial control, leading to high operational rates for packaging manufacturers [5] - Domestic companies are accelerating the development of 2.5D packaging technology, with significant advancements and production capabilities being established, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for domestic advanced packaging capacity expansion [5] - Key companies to watch include Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others that are positioned at the forefront of domestic computing power support [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance with fluctuations of -13%, 3%, 19%, 35%, 51%, and 67% in various sectors compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor packaging sector is facing structural supply-demand mismatches, compounded by rising prices of essential raw materials like gold, silver, and copper [5] - The 2.5D packaging technology is becoming mainstream, with leading global companies holding over 80% market share, while domestic firms are working to close the technology and capacity gaps [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key enterprises with advanced packaging capabilities and those in the supporting supply chain, including companies like Changchuan Technology and Jinhai Tong [5]

募资投资高端智能电动平台开发项目 江淮汽车(600418) 证券研究报告 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2026.01.28 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-01-28 | | 收盘价(元) | 53.30 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.84 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 21.84 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -10% 4% 18% 31% 45% 江淮汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 吴晓飞 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《与华为合作打造高端品牌，积极开拓海 外市场》 2025-08-26 2. 《尊界 S800 批量投产，大定突破 5000 台》 2025-06-19 3. 《营业收入有所下滑，持续深化外部合 作》 2025-04-08 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

利率| 非银流动性工具怎么看——从美国的 ON 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.29 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 汪梦涵 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030003 wangmh01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 再探超长债供需》 2026- 01-28 2. 《利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注》 2026-01-27 3. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 核心观点 ❖ 近期央行在多个场合表述"央行正探索在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性 安排"，结合美国 ONRRP 的背景和机制，我们认为新工具类似于 ONRRP 概率偏 低，更有可能是类似于前期 SFISF 的再贷款机制。 ❖ 美国的 ONRRP 成立的背景和关注点 美国隔夜逆回购协议工具（Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Facility， 下文简称 ON RRP）是美联储 ...

分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 核心观点 ❖ 联储议息会议维持利率不变、决议措辞偏鹰，但鲍威尔讲话基调温和。本次会 议利率按兵不动符合预期，决议对经济和就业的评估更乐观，但两位理事投 出反对票倾向降息。鲍威尔会后承认通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都有所回 落，淡化加息可能。短期内美债收益率曲线或呈现熊陡，美元指数维持弱势震 荡。预计短期内 10 年美债震荡区间可能在 4%~4.4%，美元指数震荡区间可 能在 96~101。人民币汇率在弱美元和结汇潮下有加速升值趋势，国内债市 "以我为主"，交易盘动能恢复，建议维持多头思维。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 决议偏鹰，发布会温和 ——美联储 1 月议息会议点评 联系人 陆星辰 luxc@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 再探超长债供需》 2026- 01-28 2. 《利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注》 2026-01-27 3. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 证券研究报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 last year, there have been strong concerns about the supply of ultra - long bonds in the market. In January this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long government bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with the increment mainly from new special bonds, indicating a decent demand for capital for major project construction at the beginning of the year. The central bank's relatively active liquidity injection and banks' increased purchases at the ultra - long end have alleviated market concerns to some extent [3]. - From the perspective of achieving the annual economic target, the annual fiscal increment may exceed market expectations, and fiscal policies may be supplemented in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long government bonds will be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan, with certain supply pressure in February and March [3]. - Insurance is likely to have a good start, with an expected annual premium growth of 6.6% and the growth rate of the balance of funds utilization remaining at around 15%. It is estimated that in 2026, the proportion of ultra - long bonds allocated by insurance in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will remain basically flat at about 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2025 [3]. - It is estimated that the investment scale of commercial banks in ultra - long bonds in 2026 will be about 4.82 trillion yuan, accounting for about 67.7% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, a year - on - year increase of 0.66 trillion yuan [3]. - For trading institutions, based on a neutral judgment of the interest rate trend, the investment scale of funds and securities firms in ultra - long bonds may be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, totaling about 10 billion yuan [3]. - The 30 - 10 - year term spread in 2025 mainly widened due to the contraction of trading desks' demand for ultra - long bonds and frictions in the trading process, rather than being mainly determined by primary supply [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How is the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year calculated according to the upper limit? - It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, including 7.143 trillion yuan for treasury bonds and 7.938 trillion yuan for local bonds. In terms of issuance, the issuance of general treasury bonds will be 14.1377 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds 2 trillion yuan, new general bonds 80 billion yuan, new special bonds 550 billion yuan, special refinancing bonds 200 billion yuan, and ordinary refinancing bonds 325.8 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of ultra - long government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 225 billion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long local bonds will be 5.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 475 billion yuan [8]. - For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds in Q1 is usually low because special treasury bonds need to be approved by the Two Sessions and are expected to start issuing at the end of April. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 is about 2.38 trillion yuan, with a relatively high refinancing ratio, and the issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be in the front, making room for new bonds for construction projects later. The issuance progress of new special bonds is expected to be faster than last year [9][10]. 3.2 How is the demand for ultra - long bonds? 3.2.1 Insurance - In 2025, the premium income of insurance companies from January to November was 5.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. Property insurance increased by 2.48% year - on - year, with auto insurance as the main source of income, accounting for over 52% and highly correlated with the growth rate of vehicle ownership. Personal insurance increased by 9.2% year - on - year, with life insurance accounting for about 77% and growing by 11.47%, mainly driven by the popularity of savings - type insurance products [12][13]. - In 2026, the probability of a "good start" for premium income is high. Favorable factors include high - interest fixed - deposit maturities, the correlation between the stock market's good start in January and premium income growth, and a low base in 2025. Unfavorable factors include pressure on traditional life insurance and the over - consumption of demand due to previous "panic - buying" promotions. It is expected that the annual premium income will achieve stable growth, with property insurance growing by about 2% and personal insurance by about 8%, and the overall insurance premium income increasing by about 6.6% [14][15]. - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds utilization was 37.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. In 2026, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the balance of insurance funds utilization will decline slightly to 15%. The proportion of bank deposits is expected to drop to 7%, the proportion of stock investment to rise to 11.5%, the proportion of fund investment to rise to 6%, the proportion of long - term equity investment to be stable at 8%, and the proportion of other investments to drop to 16%. The proportion of bonds will remain stable at 51.5%, with a net increment of about 3.1 trillion yuan [20][21]. - From 2022 - 2025, the net purchases of ultra - long bonds by insurance institutions in the secondary market were 0.48, 0.73, 1.71, and 2.28 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 13.62%, 20.7%, 31.3%, and 35.5% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, and 48%, 41%, 67%, and 72% of the annual bond investment respectively. In 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ultra - long bonds in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop from 35.5% in 2025 to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will drop slightly from 72% in 2025 to 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan [25][26]. 3.2.2 Banks - In 2025, the proportion of banks' bond allocation increased significantly. The government bond custody volume of commercial banks was 63.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.17% of the outstanding government bonds. The incremental custody of government bonds by commercial banks in 2025 was 10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of the net financing of government bonds in 2025 [29]. - It is estimated that in 2026, the passive allocation scale of commercial banks for government bonds will be 10.56 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond purchases will be 17.56 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long bonds that commercial banks need to undertake may be 4.48 trillion yuan. It is also expected that the excess allocation scale of commercial banks for ultra - long bonds in 2026 will increase slightly to 0.34 trillion yuan compared with last year. Overall, the scale of commercial banks' allocation of ultra - long bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 4.82 trillion yuan [30][32]. - After the implementation of the redemption new rules at the beginning of this year, part of the banks' entrusted - out investment has been transferred back to self - operated allocation. The probability of using this part of the funds to increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds is not high due to certain indicator pressures [33]. 3.2.3 Trading Institutions - In 2025, securities firms mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds, reduced their allocation of local bonds, and shortened the duration of government bonds. The investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds decreased by 1.493 billion yuan. In 2026, it is expected that the investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds will be basically the same as in 2025 [40][41]. - At the end of 2025, non - monetary funds held 12.51 trillion yuan in bond investments. In 2025, funds only net - bought 5.82 billion yuan of ultra - long interest - rate bonds. In 2026, due to the implementation of the fund sales new rules and concerns about the cancellation of tax exemption, the liability side of bond - type funds is unstable. It is expected that the investment scale of funds in ultra - long bonds will be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, about 10 billion yuan [41][42]. 3.3 Does the 30 - 10 - year term spread depend on primary supply? - The widening of the 30y - 10y treasury bond spread in 2025 mainly occurred in the second half of the year, mainly due to the significant improvement in the stock market sentiment, the fund sales new rules, and the interest - rate adjustment, which led to the selling of ultra - long bonds by trading - like desks. If primary supply were the decisive factor, the spread should have widened in Q2 2025 [45]. - The widening of the 30y - 10y local bond spread also shows that primary supply is not the main influencing factor, as the power of allocation desks is sufficient to hedge the selling pressure [45]. - For the secondary interest - rate trend, the willingness of trading desks to increase holdings and short - term frictions seem to be more crucial [48].