分析师 能宇翔 SAC 证书编号: S0160524070003 xiongyx(actsec.com 相关报告 1. 《哪此资产还可配?》 2025-03-09 "美"周市 2. 《北证 50 接近新高 策略专题报告 / 2025.03.11 1000 家上市公司业绩快报有哪些结论? -2024年年报分析 3 ■ 证券研究报告 李美岑 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160521120002 limc(actsec.com 分析师 王亦奕 SAC 证书编号:S0160522030002 wangyy01@ctsec.com 核心观点 别为-57.9%和-30.2%,整体盈利能力偏弱。 不仅业绩正增公司占比高,也是营收业绩双增占比相对最高的两个行业,显示 行业景气度高。与 3Q24 相比,电池、军工电子 II 行业业绩正增公司占比虽在 50%以下,但有明显改善迹象。 场复盘(3月第1周)》 2025-03-08 3. 《科综行情才露牛角》 2025-03-06 * 风险提示:核心假设不当风险;业绩快报和预告部分基于当前已披露数据统 计,结论可能随后续新披露数据发生变化;海外冲击超预期等 请阅读最后一页的重要声明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company continues to experience growth driven by the dual engines of new energy and module testing [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.457 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.87%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, up 28.85% year-on-year [5] - The laser business remains stable, with progress in module testing and perovskite equipment [5] - The company is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with projected net profits of 138 million yuan, 225 million yuan, and 279 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 18.87% for 2024, 28.62% for 2025, and 19.57% for 2026 [4] - Net profit growth rates are forecasted at 28.85% for 2024, 62.31% for 2025, and 24.09% for 2026 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.46 yuan in 2024 to 2.93 yuan in 2026 [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 36.36 in 2024 to 18.06 in 2026 [4] Business Development Summary - The company is focusing on the demand for laser processing in the new energy sector and is developing new types of lasers and monitoring modules to enhance customer processing efficiency [5] - The module testing business has expanded to cover all camera testing projects, with significant contributions expected in the next two years [5] - The perovskite film cutting equipment has gained industry-leading status, with ongoing orders and delivery progress [5]

Economic Growth Targets - The economic growth target for this year is set at around 5%, unchanged from last year, reflecting a conservative outlook due to a more complex external environment[2] - The implicit nominal growth rate of the fiscal deficit is 4.9%, indicating a cautious approach to economic growth assessment[2] - The target for consumer price inflation is adjusted to around 2%, down from the previous 3%, aligning more closely with actual conditions[2] Policy Measures - The fiscal budget deficit is set at 4%, exceeding the previous "3%" threshold, with a planned deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year[8] - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal stimulus efforts[8] - The central government's investment budget is planned at 735 billion yuan, a nearly 5% increase from last year's 700 billion yuan[19] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing consumer capacity and promoting supply release[18] - A special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan is allocated to support the "old for new" consumption policy, doubling last year's funding[18] - Real estate regulation continues with a strategy of "controlling new supply and managing existing stock," aiming to stimulate demand in the housing market[20] Risks and Considerations - Potential policy adjustments may exceed expectations, impacting economic recovery[21] - Economic recovery may fall short of projections, influenced by various external factors[22] - Historical experiences may not fully apply to current economic conditions, leading to unpredictable outcomes[22]

最近 12 月市场表现 相关报告 国力股份(688103) / 其他电子Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.02.27 业务符合预告，静待下游开花 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-02-27 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 51.75 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.95 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.30 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.95 | 1. 《收入增长利润承压，下游有望多点 开花》 2025-01-26 2. 《业绩承压延续，期待多领域成长空 间》 2024-11-01 3. 《收入增长利润承压，看好未来多领 域发展潜力》 2024-08-28 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 700 | 692 | 797 | 1370 | 1699 | | 收入增长率(%) | 37.53 | -1.12 | 15.10 | 71.97 | ...

月度金股 / 2025.03.02 财通策略&多行业—2025 年 3 月金股 分析师 李美岑 SAC 证书编号：S0160521120002 limc@ctsec.com 分析师 任缘 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080001 renyuan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《中国资产的春季行情——2 月市场 回顾》 2025-03-01 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 证券研究报告 2. 《如何把握两会行情》 2025-02-28 3. 《中国资产迎春天》 2025-02-23 ❖ "春季躁动、成长进攻"，政策预期叠加国内科技产业变革推动中国资产迎春天。 春节前至今"春季躁动"兑现，AI 等新质产业利好+提前交易两会&财政政策， 热度显著修复。2 月底政治局会议强调更积极有为的宏观政策，扩大内需，推 动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，奠定稳增长的基调。参考历 史两会前后行情：会前提前上涨，会中可能暂缓，会后继续上攻。参考历史， 景气复苏/有为政策+情绪复苏的年份，行情强势可能性大，方向预计延续 TMT 成长/小盘（成长上攻+会前主线延续）。3 月政策交易暂缓阶段，可能阶段切向 红 ...

证券Ⅱ / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.02.17 市场成交额继续提升，关注 AI 驱动业态变革 ——证券基金行业周度跟踪 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -14% 0% 14% 28% 42% 56% 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《市场交投活跃，券商基本面边际改 善确定性强——证券基金行业周度跟 踪》 2025-02-09 2. 《中长期资金加速入市,券商基本面 有望继续改善——证券基金行业周度 跟踪》 2025-01-27 1 重点数据跟踪 1.1 市场行情：权益市场整体上涨，创业板指数领涨 创业板指数领涨，中证全债下跌。本周（2.10-2.14）上证指数、创业板指、沪深 300、科创 50 分别上涨 1.30%、1.88%、1.19%、0.36%，券商板块上涨 0.72%，跑 赢科创 50；中证全债下跌 0.10%。年初至今上证指数、创业板指、沪深 300、科 创 5 ...

分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 建筑材料 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.02.17 建材行业策略周报 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -11% -2% 7% 16% 25% 建筑材料 沪深300 相关报告 | 1. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2025-02-09 | | --- | --- | | 2. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2025-02-04 | | 3. 《建材行业策略周报》 | 2025-01-20 | 收储政策加速落地，产业链需求或企稳回升 核心观点 消费建材：广东省推进收储，看好地产链估值率先反弹。据克而瑞，2025 年 2 月 7 日-9 日广东 7 城披露了 2025 年的首批专项债闲置土地收储清单，涉 及 48 幅地块，土地面积约 224.6 万方，合计金额达 171 亿元；其中珠海收储 14 幅地块，共 66.52 亿元，是收储金额最多的。从收购价格来看，排除协议土 地以及已部分开发的土地后，剩余 36 块净地对比拿地价格的收购折扣为 87.5%。从项目公司性质来看，48 幅地块 ...

医药生物 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.02.17 高质量数据或成为 AI 医疗的核心 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 张文录 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160517100001 zhangwenlu@ctsec.com 华挺 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160523010002 huating@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《疾病治疗专题研究-COPD 领域出现 新突破》 2025-02-13 2. 《2025年1月原料药相关价格情况》 2025-02-12 3. 《2024 年 12 月原料药相关价格情 况 》 2025-01-28 医药投资策略报告 核心观点 目前海外 AI 诊断已经进入快速商业化阶段,如 Tempus AI、福瑞股份子公司 Echosens、Nanox 和 Imvaria 等。建议关注:AI 诊断,影像如福瑞股份、迈瑞 医疗、联影医疗、万东医疗等;体外诊断如迪安诊断、金域医学、圣湘生物、 达安基因、塞力医疗和润达医疗等;病理如安必平等;AI 疾病预测如华大智 造、华大基因、诺禾致源、贝瑞基因等。AI 机器人如微创机器人、天智航等。 AI 医疗供应链:美年 ...

Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - Trump administration plans to impose tariffs up to 100% on China, with a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1[5] - Energy policy shifts towards traditional energy development, exiting the Paris Agreement, and reducing subsidies for electric vehicles, resulting in a 6% drop in ICE Brent crude oil prices since January 16[5] - Trump aims to influence Federal Reserve decisions, advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate capital expenditure in oil and gas sectors[6] Group 2: Domestic Policy Initiatives - Chinese government emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with policies promoting consumption and capital market development ahead of the Spring Festival[24] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission encourages long-term investments, mandating public funds to grow their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years[24] Group 3: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - In Q4 2024, fund allocation decreased by 0.1% to 83.2%, while allocations to Hong Kong and STAR Market increased by 2.0% and 1.9% respectively[25] - Sector allocations show increases in electronics (+2.0%), automotive (+0.3%), and banking (+0.5%), while reductions were seen in industrial metals and real estate[25] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Focus on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), small-cap stocks, and growth themes as primary investment strategies for the upcoming market cycle[17] - AI infrastructure investment of $500 billion announced, with significant potential in related sectors such as computing power and energy[21]

Group 1: Current Capacity Cycle Position - China has experienced at least three capacity cycles since 1998, spanning 1998-2008, 2009-2015, and 2016-present[2] - The current cycle is nearing its end, with equipment investment growth showing signs of recovery, particularly due to policies promoting equipment updates and replacements[2] - The capital expenditure growth of listed companies is currently at -4.2%, close to historical lows, indicating a bottoming phase[2] Group 2: Comparison with the US Capacity Cycle - Since 1960, the US has undergone at least eight capacity cycles, with the average cycle lasting around eight years[25] - China's capacity cycles have often led those in the US, particularly since joining the WTO in 2001, with the current cycle starting in 2016 being approximately one month ahead of the US[25] - The synchronization of capacity cycles between China and the US has increased post-2008 financial crisis, but China's policies have often provided a quicker response to market changes[28] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in the Capacity Cycle - Industries such as chemical fibers, textiles, steel, and chemicals are entering a new capacity cycle, with capacity utilization rates rising to historical highs, e.g., chemical fibers at 84.8% and chemicals at 39.4%[41] - The recovery in capacity utilization is expected to enhance profitability, particularly benefiting cyclical industries like home appliances and food and beverage sectors due to upcoming policies promoting consumption[41] - Historical data shows that cyclical industries typically achieve positive excess returns within one year of a capacity cycle's initiation, with home appliances achieving returns of 49.8% and 22.7% in previous cycles[46]