Core Insights - The pharmaceutical MNC supply chain has extremely high entry barriers, requiring years for supplier certification through cross-departmental audits in technology, quality, EHS, and compliance. Once included in the qualified supplier list, a strong lock-in effect is formed, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the existing supply structure even if they meet technical standards, thus demonstrating a strong first-mover advantage [4][7]. - MNCs demand far more than conventional quality compliance, emphasizing full-process controllability and risk management capabilities. Compliance with guidelines such as EU GMP and ICHQ is required, along with the establishment of traceability systems and safety stock. Any process changes or relocation of production sites must undergo strict and time-consuming certification [4][7]. - In procurement decisions, MNCs are relatively insensitive to price factors, prioritizing the integrity of the supply chain over cost. For MNCs, API costs represent only a small portion of their terminal formulation sales, leading them to pay a premium for stable, traceable, and zero major quality incident supply capabilities, viewing supply chain resilience as a core competitive advantage rather than a cost item. Thus, entering the MNC supply chain often means effectively avoiding "price internalization" [4][7]. - Investment recommendations include innovative drug and device companies such as Furuya Co., Aonlikang, Shutaishen, Weichuang Bio, and others. From the perspective of CXO and raw materials, companies like WuXi AppTec, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Chengda Pharmaceutical, and others are suggested for attention [4][7]. Market Performance Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the TTM-PE of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 48.84 times, which is 100% higher than the historical lowest PE valuation of 24.38 times on January 3, 2019. The premium rate relative to the CSI 300 is 252%, exceeding the historical lowest valuation premium of 124% on February 6, 2018, by 128 percentage points, and is 11 percentage points higher than the average valuation premium rate of 241% over the past decade [8][12]. - From November 17 to November 21, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 6.88%, ranking 22nd among 27 sub-industries. The chemical raw materials sector saw the largest decline at -8.60% [12][15]. Industry Dynamics - Pfizer's Class 1 new drug, Matacizumab, was approved for marketing on November 21, 2025, for the routine prevention and treatment of bleeding in patients with severe hemophilia A or B [20]. - Boehringer Ingelheim's Class 1 new drug, BI764198, was proposed for inclusion as a breakthrough therapy on November 18, 2025, targeting primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis [21]. - The PD-1 inhibitor H drug, Surulutumab, developed by Fuhong Hanlin, was officially included as a breakthrough therapy on November 20, 2025, for gastric cancer treatment [22]. - On November 17, 2025, FDA approved the biosimilar of Tysabri, developed by Sandoz, for multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom of the 30-year treasury bond futures was broken, weakening the pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent repair strength. TL2603 fell back after a rebound and is in a short-term adjustment. If it further declines after the repair, subsequent market conditions need to be dealt with cautiously [1]. - The data tracking of treasury bond futures indicates that the main contract is about to change, and the cash-and-carry strategy of the 2603 contract still has some participation value. This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated, and the trading activity increased overall. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contract decreased overall, and the IRR increased except for TL. Currently, the IRR of T2603 and TL2603 is still significantly higher than the capital interest rate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, the trends of T and TL were differentiated. T rose slightly, while TL declined continuously since Wednesday. TL2603 first rose and then fell, and TL2512 broke below the upper edge of the bottom area (around 115.57) on Friday, breaking the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern and closing near the 60 - day line [6]. 1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook - TL2603 showed signs of weakening after breaking below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders bottom on Friday. From the perspective of the wave theory, the adjustment since November 5th may form a platform type, and it may be at the end of the short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the repair strength. If the market declines again after the repair, the risk of further continuation of the adjustment needs to be concerned. TL2603 was weaker than T2603 this week. T2603 also broke below 115.57 on Friday, weakening the pattern. If the end of the platform type forms a phased low, the subsequent market can still be optimistic [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - This week, the performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. As of November 21st, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.460, 105.855, 108.430, and 115.57 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.006, -0.020, +0.015, and -0.59 yuan compared with the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased compared with last week, and the trading volume/holding volume increased for each maturity [15]. - As of November 21st, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of treasury bond futures decreased across the board, while that of the 2603 contracts increased across the board, indicating that participants continued to shift positions [15]. - As of November 21st, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of each maturity decreased overall, with little change in TL. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were -0.07, -0.05, -0.11, and -0.13 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR of the CTD of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.66%, 1.60%, 1.77%, and 1.75% respectively, increasing except for TL. The cash - and - carry strategies of T2603 and TL2603 still have some participation value. The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts decreased overall this week [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. GAAP operating profit was 120 million yuan, up 385.1% year-on-year, while non-GAAP operating profit was 140 million yuan, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to strengthen its market position through continuous scenario-based marketing and policy collaboration, with projected GAAP net profits of 380 million yuan, 710 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.9x, 9.1x, and 6.4x [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 21,032.63 million yuan, with a growth rate of 28.8%. The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 380.52 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 4724.2% compared to the previous year [6][8] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points. Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 2.7%, up 0.1 percentage points, while GAAP operating profit margin was 2.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points [7] Revenue Breakdown - The company's 1P (self-operated) revenue reached 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. Excluding Apple's official and overseas product revenue, the growth was 31.9%. The acceptance of second-hand products by users has significantly increased, with 1PtoC revenue growing over 70% [7] - The 3P (platform) revenue was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with multi-category revenue growing by 55.1% [7]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.2% year-on-year, reaching 28.36 billion yuan, which is slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [7] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 33.5%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8% [7] - The company is expected to see adjusted net profit growth of 18.4%, 8.8%, and 8.6% for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.9, 13.7, and 12.6 [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 103.468 billion yuan - 2024A: 105.295 billion yuan - 2025E: 115.426 billion yuan - 2026E: 125.700 billion yuan - 2027E: 134.863 billion yuan - The net profit for the years is projected as: - 2023A: 29.417 billion yuan - 2024A: 29.698 billion yuan - 2025E: 36.339 billion yuan - 2026E: 39.555 billion yuan - 2027E: 43.252 billion yuan [6][7] Business Segments - The self-developed games segment generated revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [7] - The cloud music segment reported revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [7] - The Youdao segment achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [7] Valuation Metrics - The company’s EPS for the upcoming years is projected as follows: - 2023A: 9.05 yuan - 2024A: 9.28 yuan - 2025E: 11.47 yuan - 2026E: 12.49 yuan - 2027E: 13.65 yuan - The P/E ratios are projected to be: - 2023A: 15.54 - 2024A: 14.91 - 2025E: 18.53 - 2026E: 17.03 - 2027E: 15.57 [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the year-on-year decline in new home sales narrowed. The new home sales in second-tier cities formed a support, with Hangzhou's performance being outstanding, possibly affected by discounted sales and concentrated supply. The new home sales in second-tier cities were stronger than the same period last year, while those in first, third, and fourth-tier cities were still significantly weaker [3]. - Most commodity prices and production start rates declined. The investment and production situation was relatively stable during the off - season, and attention should be paid to the implementation of previous policies [3]. - Metro ridership and domestic flights remained at a high level, indicating strong consumer mobility. However, movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3]. - Pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. The decline in vegetable prices was due to the recovery of supply after the temperature rose, and the decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - This week, SCFI declined while BDI increased. The US government shutdown led to a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in Second - Tier Cities Turned Positive Year - on - Year - From November 14th to November 20th, the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 23.78% week - on - week and decreased by 15.85% year - on - year. The new home sales in first - tier cities were weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were significantly stronger. Second - tier cities' new home sales were stronger than the same period last year, while first, third, and fourth - tier cities' sales were still significantly weaker [3][8]. - In terms of key cities, most key cities' new home sales increased week - on - week, except for Shanghai (-17.62%) and Shenzhen (-7.54%). Hangzhou had a significant increase of 101.87%. Year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (105.64%), new home sales in other key cities were significantly weaker than last year [8]. - Second - hand home sales decreased week - on - week and the year - on - year decline narrowed. Among key cities, except for Hangzhou (1.42%), second - hand home sales in other key cities were slightly weaker than the previous period. Year - on - year, second - hand home sales in all key cities decreased significantly [8]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Most commodity prices declined this week. The price of rebar increased slightly due to stable demand, supply contraction, and inventory decline. The price of asphalt decreased slightly as the cost support weakened with the decline of crude oil, and supply increased during the off - season. The cement price decreased slightly because rainy weather inhibited construction and demand was weak. The glass futures price declined due to stable supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure [3][34]. 3. Production: Most Start Rates Declined - Most production start rates declined this week. The start rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and PTA decreased. The blast furnace start rate of steel mills decreased slightly, the start rate of coking enterprises increased, and the start rate of polyester filament increased slightly [3][42]. 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Consumer mobility was strong. Metro ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above the seasonal level, while movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3][50]. 5. Export: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - This week, the SCFI index declined, the BDI index increased, the port throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index declined slightly. The US government shutdown led to weak transportation demand and a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3][57]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. Vegetable prices decreased slightly as the supply recovered with the temperature rise and vegetables from multiple production areas were concentrated on the market. The decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The rebar price increased slightly [3][61].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-based low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3] Market Index Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 5.13%, and the CSI 300 dropped by 3.77%, indicating a significant decline in market sentiment [5][8] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI 300 Index has risen by 13.2%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has increased by 23.7%, resulting in an excess return of 10.5% [20] Index Enhancement Fund Performance - For the week ending November 21, 2025, the CSI 300 index enhancement fund reported an excess return ranging from -1.07% (minimum) to 3.22% (maximum), with a median of 0.29% [12][13] - Year-to-date, the CSI 500 index has increased by 19.1%, while the enhanced portfolio has risen by 26.7%, yielding an excess return of 7.7% [25][26] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report outlines the construction of enhanced portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices using deep learning frameworks, with weekly rebalancing and a maximum turnover rate of 10% [16] - The CSI 1000 index has shown a year-to-date increase of 18.6%, while the enhanced portfolio has risen by 32.9%, resulting in an excess return of 14.2% [37][38]

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the favorable news has been fully priced in, the market is experiencing a weak bullish phase, leading to profit-taking concerns and subsequent global asset adjustments [4][10] - Recent market movements show significant declines in major indices, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, while A-shares and Asian markets also faced pressure [4][10] - The report highlights that despite positive catalysts such as Nvidia's earnings and strong non-farm payroll data, bearish sentiments persist, particularly regarding technology stocks and valuation concerns [4][10] Market Overview - The report notes that both the US and Chinese markets have entered a period of observation and adjustment, with a focus on profit-taking and healthy corrections [5][11] - It emphasizes that after sustained increases, both markets require a period of rest to better prepare for the next upward movement, with A-shares particularly positioned for future gains based on upcoming earnings [5][11] - The report identifies that the banking and dividend sectors have shown significant excess returns, with state-owned banks and dividend stocks outperforming by 10.0%, 8.7%, 6.5%, and 3.7% respectively since November [5][12] Future Outlook - The long-term trends for both US and Chinese stock markets, including technology sectors, remain unchanged, with several factors supporting this view [6][13] - For A-shares, the report outlines four key aspects: supportive policy towards capital markets, a weak recovery trend, continued liquidity improvements, and strong top-level policy support for the technology sector [6][13] - The report anticipates potential scenarios for A-shares in December, including unexpected policy support or structural adjustments leading to a market rally, with a focus on technology growth stocks [7][14]