中观配置月报 2511：小盘成长风格继续占优 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《指增组合本周走势分化》 2025-11- 01 2. 《基于宏观数据的资产配置与风格行业 轮动体系》 2025-10-29 3. 《本周指增组合超额回撤》 2025-10- 25 ❖ 风格轮动解决方案：大盘股对经济繁荣的表现更加敏感，成长股能够更好地 受益于流动性宽松，再辅佐以市场情绪指标，刻画市场风险偏好与拥挤度，通 过三维度多因子打分，构建风格轮动综合打分体系。 ❖ 根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月价值成长轮动策略得出的综合 分数为 6，成长风格得分较高。根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月 大小盘轮动策略得出的综合分数为 4，小盘风格得分较高。 ❖ 行业轮动解决方案：我们构造宏观指标、基本面指标、技术面指标、拥挤度 指标四维引擎 10 个指标作为行业指数轮动框架，其中三个拥挤度因子相关性 较高，融合成一个负向指标。 ❖ 根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月行业轮动综合得分排名 ...

证券研究报告 持以恒，等风来 ——2025年11月投资策略 分析师：徐陈翼 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：王亦奕 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 分析师：张洲驰 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 4 分析师：熊宇翔 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 3 联系人：常瑛珞 报告日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 2 日 核心观点 外部摩擦暂缓、国内政策蓝图明晰、企业盈利加速改善，三重因素共振，市场有望蓄力再向上。海外方面，中美会谈取得阶段性进展，关税加征与出口管制缓和，利好风 险偏好回升。尽管美联储10月降息后释放鹰派信号，但就业市场渐进降温、通胀逐步回落至目标位，为继续降息提供基础。且往后看，新的美联储主席人选即将提名，降 息确定性有望进一步提升。国内"十五五"规划建议正式落地，整体更倾向高质量发展+结构上支持科技与现代化产业，中长期利好新质生产力。企业盈利增速提升与上 市公司业绩改善互相印证，在反内卷与新质生产力政策支持下，盈利有望继续趋势性改善，市场整体下行风险 ...

期货｜反弹变为反转？ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 11 月资金利率能否向下突 破？》 2025-11-01 2. 《高频｜政策加码，能否对冲生产淡 季？》 2025-11-01 3. 《十五五中的 受益标的 有哪些？》 2025-10-31 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.02 核心观点 ❖ 国债期货周度技术分析——关注底部反转的可能 本周 10 年国债期货持续上涨、周二出现突破缺口。 本周国债期货形成底部区间的突破，当前有反转形态，后市维持形态则可以 保持乐观。从 T2512 和 TL2512 的周中走势来看，T2512 迅速上涨后转为 震荡上涨、始终未出现显著调整，多头强势；TL2512 周四周五边际转强， 显示交易力量情绪向好。T2512 下方关注 108.45-108.55 附近不宜跌破， 上方关注 108.93、109.1 附近；TL2512 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.02 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 联系人 柳婧舒 liujs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 11 月资金利率能否向下突 破？》 2025-11-01 2. 《高频｜政策加码，能否对冲生产淡 季？》 2025-11-01 3. 《十五五中 的受益 标的 有哪些？》 2025-10-31 核心观点 ❖ 我们预计 11 月市场整体不确定性或有下降，机构加仓概率相对提升。 地缘政治方面，中美谈判有序推进，10 月末釜山元首会晤。机构行为方面， 历史上看险资更偏好在 11 月入场配置，12 月往往减仓，2022 年-2024 年 险资 11 月平均转债持仓环比+3.2%，仅略低于每年 1 月。基于此，我们建 议对 11 月市场环境多一份乐观。 ...

毛利率承压，费用管控较好 众信旅游(002707) 证券研究报告 旅游及景区 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.02 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-10-31 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 7.01 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.25 | | 每股净资产(元) | 0.94 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.83 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -14% -7% 0% 7% 13% 20% 众信旅游 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 周诗琪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060006 zhousq@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《业务扩张带动费用增长，期待后续表现》 2025-09-01 2. 《出境游业务稳步修复，线下门店有望加 速扩张》 2024-11-07 3. 《出境游供给修复叠加行业出清带动业绩 高增》 2024-09-02 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2 ...

三季度收入增速加快，资产质量夯实稳健 徐工机械(000425) 证券研究报告 工程机械 / 公司点评 / 2025.10.31 最近 12 月市场表现 -8% 5% 17% 30% 42% 54% 徐工机械 沪深300 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 张豪杰 SAC 证书编号： zhanghj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《扣非后归母净利润快速增长，经营质量 夯实稳健》 2025-08-31 2. 《一季度业绩较快增长，盈利能力不断提 升》 2025-04-29 3. 《盈利能力不断提升，高质量发展收效显 著》 2024-10-31 核心观点 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 92,848 | 91,660 | 102,849 | 118,435 | 138,034 | | 收入增长率(%) | -1.0 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability in Q3 2025, with expectations for operational flexibility to be released [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.163 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million yuan, down 30.3% [8] - The company anticipates a rebound in performance due to the improvement in its skin care business [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.076 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 593 million yuan, down 39.0% [7] - The company expects net profits to recover to 411 million yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 62.7 [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 69.9%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [8] Business Segments Summary - The raw materials segment generated revenue of 923 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a gross margin of 84.81% [8] - The medical terminal segment saw a revenue increase of 14.5% in Q3 2025, with the medical beauty business contributing 229 million yuan [8] - The nutrition science business achieved its first quarterly profit while maintaining revenue growth [8] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 4.11 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 5.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 62.7, 50.7, and 44.9 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and has multiple business development (BD) collaborations that are expected to drive future growth [8] - The company has a strong pipeline with clinical advancements in its CDH17 ADC and TCE platform, showcasing its R&D capabilities [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 9.03 billion, 14.31 billion, and 22.72 billion RMB respectively, with a path to profitability expected by 2027 [8] Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 465 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 1717.41% [8] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 566 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 301.03% [8] - The company's drug sales revenue for the third quarter was 55.32 million RMB, up 120.85% year-on-year, and for the first three quarters, it was 156 million RMB, up 72.10% year-on-year [8] Business Development Collaborations - The company has secured three BD collaborations, including a partnership with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the Agrestin α product, which includes a 380 million RMB upfront payment [8] - Collaborations with Calico and Kalexo involve significant upfront payments and milestone payments, indicating strong commercial potential [8] Clinical Development - The company’s self-developed CDH17 ADC has received approval for clinical trial applications from both the National Medical Products Administration and the FDA [8] - The TCE platform has established a comprehensive antibody library, enhancing its capabilities for targeted cancer therapies [8] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.03 billion, 14.31 billion, and 22.72 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be -648 million, -301 million, and 80 million RMB [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of -1.62, -0.75, and 0.20 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 38.40% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 603.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52% year-on-year [7] - The growth is primarily driven by strong demand in the AI server and related business sectors, with a notable acceleration in performance in Q3 2025 [7] - The cloud computing business continues to grow rapidly, with Q3 2025 revenue from cloud services increasing by over 75% year-on-year, and GPU AI server revenue growing more than five times year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to generate revenues of 1,007.81 billion yuan, 1,573.17 billion yuan, and 1,817.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 35.06 billion yuan, 59.93 billion yuan, and 76.22 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 476.34 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -6.9%, followed by 609.14 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate of 27.9% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 21.04 billion yuan, with a net profit growth rate of 4.8%, increasing to 23.22 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate of 10.3% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.06 yuan in 2023 to 1.77 yuan in 2025, and further to 3.02 yuan in 2026 [6] Market Performance - The company has shown a market performance of -36% over the last 12 months, compared to a 19% increase in the consumer electronics sector and a 74% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 234.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.84 billion yuan, up 13.56% year-on-year [6] - Domestic sales revenue in Q3 2025 increased by 10.8% year-on-year, with strong performance in refrigerators, washing machines, and water-connected products, while air conditioning and kitchen appliances showed better growth than the industry [7] - The company is actively promoting digital transformation, with a gross margin of 27.21% and a net margin of 7.62% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting continuous optimization of expense ratios [8] - Cash flow has been consistently increasing, with Q3 2025 cash flow reaching 580 million yuan, indicating strong cash generation capability [9] - The company is expected to enhance its global competitiveness through core module manufacturing capability improvements and overseas acquisitions, with projected net profits of 21.3 billion yuan, 23.9 billion yuan, and 26.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 310.58 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.6% [10] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 21.35 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 13.9% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.28 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.3x [10]