建筑装饰 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.05.25 4 月基建增速环比放缓，资金改善仍需等待 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -13% -5% 3% 11% 18% 建筑装饰 沪深300 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 联系人 陈悦明 chenym01@ctsec.com 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 流同比改善》 2025-05-05 单击或点击此处输入文字。 ❖ 4 月基建增速环比有所放缓，建筑业订单依旧承压。根据统计局数据， 2025 年 1-4 月狭义/广义基建投资额分别同增 5.80%/10.85%，环比 1-3 月分别 持平/-0.65pct；4 月单月狭义/广义基建投资额分别同增 5.80%/9.57%，增速环 比 1-3 月分别-0.14pct/-3.02pct，基建投资增速相较于一季度有所放缓。细分来 看，2025 年 1-4 月电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资同增 25.5%，较前 值回落 0.5pct；交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资同增 3.9%，较前值提升 0.1pct； 水利、环 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is likely to support gold prices in the short term [1][6] - Recent market performance shows a significant decline in various sectors, with the SW Nonferrous Index increasing by 1.26% [4][6] - Concerns over the deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. have led to a drop in the dollar index, providing buying support for gold [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 1.26% [6] - COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 4.99% and 4.16%, respectively [6] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate, while demand is affected by high prices and slowing investment in real estate and infrastructure [6] - Aluminum production is increasing, with a slight rise in operating rates [6] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise in the short term due to increasing interest rate cut expectations [6] - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory increased by 2.32% [6] Energy Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a decline in prices for various rare earth elements [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have dropped due to high inventory levels and reduced demand [6]

Domestic Demand - New home sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand home sales decline[4] - Retail sales of passenger cars have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased[4] - Hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room have both increased, indicating recovery in the tourism market[4] External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes showing year-on-year growth[4] - U.S. imports from China have also turned positive, indicating strong support for direct exports[4] - Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on European goods may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector[4] Production and Prices - Weak terminal construction demand has led to a decline in steel prices and production rates[4] - Chemical chain products have seen price increases due to maintenance and rising oil prices[4] - Gold prices have rebounded amid geopolitical tensions, while copper and oil prices are fluctuating within a range[4]

财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 席分析师:李美岑 E S0160521120002 分析师:张洲驰 ·· S0160524070004 S /A 60524070003 025年 lli . UWLEN 国内母婴行业在政策支持、消费升级与供给变革的驱动下，呈现结构性增长机遇： 1、政策端，中央与此方政府持续推出生育补贴及降伟表育成本政策、有望推动生育率企稳回升。1从海外经验看，生育相关公共支出增加停望支持生育率回升，1980年后， 日、韩和南欧国家生育率急展下降。相比之下!(欧以及部分英语系国家的生育率出现最著的目元，这部分枢普遍先经历了家庭平均公共支出的僧长，表明外贴政策的生育率 的回升起到了一定的作用。2近年来中央球舞出台补贴、降低生养育成本等方面欧策鼓励生育，地方政府也纷纷出台生育、育儿孙、部分地区区对多家家庭会予任房外贴， 真金白银支持地方生育率提升。 2、帮求端，生育增量消费力增加、助力母婴市场在生育率下行背景下规模逆势增加：马婴市场增速超30P，家庭平均消费增返近10%更高于整体市场增速，背后是三大生育 增量解体消费意愿增加：1）生育多胎群体；当前多指占比逐步抬开，已至60+%；这 ...

计算机 / 行业专题报告 / 2025.05.18 AI 算力：数字经济的基石，大国博弈的焦点 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 陈梦笔 chenmb01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 4 月车市稳增，滴滴 L4 新车亮相》 2025-05-14 2. 《破局与增长：IDC 行业竞争战略与 市场格局重塑 》 2025-05-11 3. 《2025 年一季度总结：业绩企稳，AI 提速，加仓正当时》 2025-05-05 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -6% 8% 23% 38% 53% 计算机 沪深300 上证指数 ❖ 美国芯片管制法案体系脉络：从"全面防扩散"到"强制 AI 芯片位置 验证"。2025 年 5 月 13 日，美国商务部宣布撤销拜登政府此前发布的《人工 智能扩散规则》（AI Diffusion Rule）。同日，美国工业安全局（Bureau of Industry and Security，简称 BIS）颁布 General Proh ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a motorcycle business to an "AI + Vehicle" model, with a focus on smart driving and Robotaxi services, supported by strong capital and management backgrounds [8][14]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 89.66 billion, 102.92 billion, and 121.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 0.84 billion, 1.53 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan [8][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through four stages: starting with motorcycles, exploring new energy, undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, and now embracing the "AI + Vehicle" transformation [14]. - Its core business includes terminal operations (motorcycles and vehicles) and technology operations (smart driving solutions) [14][19]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant recovery in its automotive business, with a 117% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in Q1 2025 [23][24]. - The motorcycle business has maintained a stable cash flow, with a gross margin of 12.1% in 2023, showing an upward trend [26][29]. Smart Driving and Technology - The report highlights the importance of smart driving technology, which is categorized into Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and higher-level autonomous driving [39][41]. - The domestic policy environment is supportive of the autonomous driving industry, with multiple regulations and incentives in place to promote development [43][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenues of 89.66 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.45% [7][8]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 110.17% in 2025 [7]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to leverage partnerships with major players like Geely and AI firms to enhance its technology capabilities and market reach [8][19]. - The report notes that the company’s gross margin is currently below the average of comparable companies, but improvements are anticipated as AI-related businesses develop [32].

建筑装饰/ 行业投资策略周报/ 2025.05.18 金属价格上涨利好哪些建筑企业 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 8% 15% 建筑装饰 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《当前时点如何看"一带一路"板块》 2025-05-11 2. 《国内经营依旧承压，Q4 经营现金 流同比改善》 2025-05-05 3. 《己二腈需求稳步增长，国产替代或 进一步加快》 2025-04-21 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 关税缓和下宏观情绪修复，有色金属价格迎来普涨。5 月 12 日中美两国 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中国将在 90 天内将美国商品加征关税 从 125%降至 10%，美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品加征关税从 145%降至 30%， 双方降幅同为 91%，在中美关系阶段性缓和背景下，宏观情绪改善带动部分有 色金属价格上涨。此外，部分小金属受供需变动及地缘博弈等影响，价格也实 现较大涨幅。截至 5 月 16 日，铜、铝、铅、镍、锌、钴、钼 ...

投资策略报告/ 2025.05.12 中美关税谈判超预期,红五月进行时 分析师 李美岑 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120002 limc(a)ctsec.com 徐陈堂 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030003 xucy(a)ctsec.com 3. 《三大风格组合&5 月最新标的》 2025-05-07 核心观点 美国将(一)修改 2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包 括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品)加征的从价关税,其中,24%的关 税在初始的 90天内暂停实施,同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩 余 10%的关税;(二)取消根据 2025年4月8日第 14259号行政令和 2025年 4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 中国将(一) 相应修改税委会公告 2025年第 4 号规定的对美国商品加征的从 价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的 90天内暂停实施,同时保留对这些商品 媒、旅游)三个方面。 相关报告 1.《红利、消费、科技三轮动- -"美" 周市场复盘(5月第2周)》 2025-05-11 2. 《业绩基准对市场风格的影响》 2 ...

(0) 财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 1、5月7日，证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，政策旨在鼓励基金确定合理的业绩比较基准、规范投资行为。《推动公募基金高质 量发展行动方案》提出：1）建立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动管理费收取机制，根据其持有期间产品业绩表现确定具体适用管理费率水平。2）强化业 绩比较基准的约束作用，明确基金产品业绩比较基准的设定、修改、披露、持续评估及纠偏机制。 2、相关政策背景在于近三年跑赢业绩基准的主动基金占比偏低。2015年至今，主动基金相对业绩基准的表现在不同市场环境下波动较大，其中 2016-2018年、2022-2024年间，跑赢基准的基金占比持续偏低，这与基金配置长期偏离基准不无联系。此次强化约束有利于纠偏基金业绩比较基准 设立不合理、基金风格漂移的现象，强化投资者信心。 3、当前以沪深300、中证800、中证500为业绩比较基准的基金规模，占全部生动基金的71%，普遍低配金融、公用。截至1Q25，以沪深300/中证 800/中证500为业绩比较基准的主动基金规模合计约2.5万亿元，三类基金分别占3.5万亿元主动基金的48%/19%/4%。其中：a） ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a favorable opportunity for asset allocation in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in H-shares and A-shares, as they are expected to benefit from policy support and market recovery [2][6]. - The global economic outlook shows a gradual recovery, with China's economy improving and the U.S. facing potential economic challenges due to fiscal weaknesses [6][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. monetary policy, which is currently in a cautious stance, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [6][61]. Global Asset Strategy - Short-term allocation suggests favoring H-shares and small-cap A-shares, while medium-term strategies include A-shares and bonds [6]. - The report highlights a shift in global economic conditions, with China's economic indicators showing improvement, while the U.S. economy is experiencing a downturn [6][20]. - The report notes that U.S. monetary policy is in a state of observation, with potential rate cuts anticipated, which could influence market dynamics [6][61]. Market Performance - The report outlines that Chinese assets, gold, and currencies like the euro and yen have outperformed from March 16 to April 15, 2025 [10][13]. - A-shares and H-shares are expected to see increased capital inflows, benefiting from favorable policy changes and market sentiment [6][13]. - The performance of U.S. stocks is projected to decline, with concerns over trade policies and economic recession impacting market stability [6][13]. Economic Indicators - China's economic indicators, including PMI and credit growth, are showing signs of recovery, with March data exceeding expectations [20][58]. - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is facing challenges, with manufacturing and service sectors showing unexpected declines [20][66]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the U.S., as core CPI is showing signs of decline, which could influence future monetary policy [66]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the potential for easing tensions, which could positively affect market sentiment [6][26]. - China's ongoing consumer policy initiatives are expected to stimulate domestic consumption and support economic recovery [45][46]. - The report highlights the need for continued observation of U.S. fiscal policies and their implications for global markets [6][28].