1. 《本周指增组合表现回暖》 2026- 01-24 核心观点 ❖ 我们基于深度学习框架构建 alpha 和风险模型，打造 AI 体系下的低 频指数增强策略： ❖ 风险提示：因子失效风险，模型失效风险，市场风格变动风险。 本周市场震荡，指增组合涨跌互现 证券研究报告 量化选股策略周报/ 2026.02.02 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 2. 《本周市场走势分化，指增组合涨跌不 一》 2026-01-17 3. 《红利选股的战略三角：进攻、防守和交 易》 2026-01-12 ❖ 本周市场指数表现：截至 2026-01-30，本周上证指数下跌 0.44%，深证 成指下跌 1.62%，沪深 300 上涨 0.08%，市场震荡大部分指数下跌。 ❖ 本周指数增强基金表现：截至 2026-01-30，本周沪深 30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI-related chips is driving significant growth in the wafer foundry sector, with TSMC's revenue reaching NT$1.05 trillion in Q4 2025, a 20.45% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for a single quarter [6][8]. - The global advanced process capacity is expected to accelerate, with SEMI predicting that the capacity for 7nm and below advanced logic processes will grow from approximately 850,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 1.4 million wafers per month by 2028 [6][12]. - Domestic companies in China need to accelerate their technological upgrades and capacity expansions to catch up with global leaders like TSMC and Samsung, as their market share in advanced processes remains significantly low [6][11]. - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is projected to reach a historical high of CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, indicating a strong signal for accelerated capacity expansion in advanced processes [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor companies such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Jiangfeng Electronics, and others for investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Advanced Process Wafer Foundry Development - AI computing chip demand is propelling the wafer foundry industry to new heights, with TSMC's revenue growth and a projected global wafer foundry market size increase from USD 155.6 billion in 2024 to USD 268.3 billion by 2032 [6][8]. - The complexity and larger size of AI GPU chips require more advanced process capacity, leading to a higher demand for wafer foundry services [8][9]. 2. Domestic Market in China - China's wafer foundry industry has seen rapid expansion in mature processes, but advanced process capacity and technology development face significant challenges due to export restrictions from Western countries [9][11]. - In 2021, China's share in the global advanced process wafer foundry market was only 5%, highlighting the need for further development [11]. 3. Semiconductor Equipment Imports - The import of semiconductor equipment in China is expected to reach CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, with significant investments in critical lithography equipment [12][13]. - ASML's revenue from lithography systems is projected to be EUR 24.474 billion in 2025, with 33% of that coming from the Chinese market, indicating strong demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The transition of server-level CPU memory modules towards MRDIMM technology is highlighted, with a focus on MRCD and MDB chips as key growth areas. MRDIMM is suitable for high-performance computing and AI applications, achieving data transfer rates of up to 8800MT/s, with future generations expected to reach 14000MT/s [3][5][11][12]. - The report anticipates significant demand growth for MRCD and MDB chips, projecting that by 2030, the demand could reach 5.93 billion and 59.28 billion units respectively under optimistic scenarios [5][20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Development of Server CPU Memory Modules Towards MRDIMM - The report discusses the evolution of memory modules in servers, emphasizing the importance of stability, error correction, and low power consumption as data storage and processing loads increase [8][9]. - Current mainstream memory module technologies include UDIMM, RDIMM, and LRDIMM, with MRDIMM emerging as a new architecture designed to enhance memory bandwidth and performance [10][11]. 2. Core Incremental Growth from MRCD and MDB Chips - MRDIMM utilizes a "1+10" architecture, consisting of one MRCD and ten MDB chips, which are crucial for its performance enhancements. The technology is already compatible with Intel's sixth-generation CPUs, and major memory manufacturers have begun producing MRDIMM products [5][17]. - The report outlines potential penetration rates for MRDIMM by 2030, estimating demand for MRCD and MDB chips under various scenarios [20][22]. 3. Demand Projections for MRCD and MDB Chips - Under optimistic assumptions, the report forecasts that by 2030, the demand for MRCD and MDB chips could reach 5.93 billion and 59.28 billion units respectively, driven by the increasing adoption of MRDIMM technology in server environments [20][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry, marking it as the first rating issued [2]. Core Insights - The edible fungus industry is experiencing growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% for the national edible fungus output value from 2019 to 2024. The market structure is optimizing as production capacity returns to rational levels [5][6]. - The demand for Cordyceps sinensis is increasing due to its various health benefits, and the supply is becoming scarcer due to overharvesting and climate change. This is expected to lead to long-term price increases or strong fluctuations [5][6]. - The report highlights the ongoing technological advancements and policy improvements that are creating new opportunities for the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis, which is transitioning into a rapid industrialization phase [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Cordyceps Sinensis: Continuous Advancement in Large-Scale Artificial Cultivation - The industry chain for Cordyceps sinensis is continuously improving, with applications expanding across pharmaceuticals, health products, and cosmetics [5][9]. - The price of wild Cordyceps sinensis is expected to remain strong due to its increasing scarcity, with prices returning to 210,000-220,000 yuan per kilogram in 2023 [5][28]. - Policies are being implemented to ensure sustainable harvesting and scientific protection of Cordyceps sinensis, promoting the development of artificial cultivation [5][30]. 2. Edible Fungi: Market Structure Optimization and Rational Return of Production Capacity - The edible fungus industry is witnessing stable growth, with the production of enoki mushrooms stabilizing at over 5,300 tons per day in 2023, and the price is expected to recover from its bottom [5][6]. - The production of button mushrooms is stable, with a daily output of 867 tons in 2023, and leading companies maintain a high market share [5][6]. - The demand for king oyster mushrooms is also improving, supported by household consumption and high-end dining, with industrial production reaching 349 tons per day in 2023 [5][6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the edible fungus industry will see price stabilization and upward movement due to reduced supply pressure from capital expenditure and capacity cuts by enterprises [5][6]. - In the Cordyceps sinensis sector, companies with advanced capacity and technological layouts are expected to show greater growth potential as health awareness increases [5][6].

酒板块眼踪点评报告 TH KE ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立德 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 张之 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090004 zhangli01@ctsec.com 任金星 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160524010001 renix@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析》 2026-01-29 2. 《国标加速推出，利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 3. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 业》 2026-01-05 日酒动销渐起,关注预期差下的板块机织 核心观点 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数 据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解。本报告清晰地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论 不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 ● 资质声明 � 风险提示:消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market has seen significant fluctuations. The short - term rise is driven by the safe - haven property, dollar credit issues, and tight silver inventory. The sharp increase was due to short - squeezes and the option gamma squeeze effect. Currently, factors triggering adjustments include the nomination of Warsh as the Fed chair, high volatility, a significant decline in silver ETF holdings, and exchange intervention. In the long - term, the upward trend remains, and historical data shows an average 18 - day correction with an 8% decline, and a re - entry point may be when the implied volatility drops below 20% [5][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - term Logic for the Recent Rise - **Safe - haven Property**: Multiple geopolitical conflicts in 2026, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and potential US tariffs on Europe and strikes against Iran, have sharply increased risk - aversion sentiment. Additionally, the potential US government shutdown also boosts the precious metals market [10][15] - **Dollar Credit Issues**: Due to the unpredictability of the US government and growing US debt, European institutions like Swedish and Danish pension funds have reduced their holdings of US - related assets, and some funds may choose gold as a new underlying asset [16] - **Silver - specific Logic**: The industrial and investment demand for silver has led to a significant decline in physical silver inventory. Compared to September 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has dropped by over 58%, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 21% [17] 2. Reasons for the Previous Sharp Increase - **Short - squeeze**: As of January 29, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8.75, much higher than the historical average. In January, over 40 million ounces of silver on COMEX applied for delivery, and as the March delivery month approaches, the demand may exhaust the current inventory [20] - **Option Gamma Squeeze Effect**: Retail investors' large - scale purchase of call options forces market - makers to buy underlying assets in the futures market, creating a self - reinforcing cycle. When gold broke through $5000 per ounce, it accelerated its upward movement [21] 3. Factors Triggering the Current Adjustment - **Direct Cause**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair stabilizes the dollar's credit, weakening the "de - dollarization" narrative and suppressing gold prices [24] - **Volatility Perspective**: As of January 29, the implied volatility of gold exceeded 35%, and that of silver was 94%, both at historical highs, indicating an over - heated market [25] - **Funds Perspective**: The significant decline in silver ETF holdings since January 26, approaching previous lows, signals an adjustment in the silver market. Gold's overall holding growth has also slowed [27][29] - **Exchange Intervention**: The CME has raised the margin for silver and gold six times since December 2025, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also increased margins and issued risk warnings [30] 4. What to Do After the Adjustment - **Medium - to - Long - term Perspective**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. International concerns about US debt sustainability and Fed independence drive central banks to increase gold reserves, and the Fed's current interest - rate cut cycle reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold [34] - **Historical Reference**: Since 2024, gold has had three peak - to - trough corrections, with an average correction time of about 18 days and a decline of about 8% [35] - **Volatility Guidance**: Historically, gold rallies have often started when implied volatility dropped to a low level. In the future, when the volatility drops below 20%, it may be a signal to go long [36]

宏观点评 / 2026.01.31 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 万琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090007 wanqi@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 不同于收入端，第一本账支出端边际变化相对积极，年末支出出现超季节性 上行,支出同比降幅也有所收窄。但民生类相关支出环比弱于季节性,同比转 为负增,地方现金流紧张问题仍存。第二本账方面,因年末用于项目的专项债 加速发行使用，支出同比小幅正增长。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 2026-01-30 1. 《存款搬家,新路径》 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 宏观点评/证券研究报告 图表目录 | 图 1 : 12 月中央对全国一般公共预算收入同比拖累加大 . | | --- | | 图 2: 12 月税收及非税收入同比均有下行 | | 图 3: 12 月非税收入环比不及季节性 | | 图 4: 12 月税收收入环比不及季节性…………………………………………………………………………… ...

Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing around 1.8%, while the 30-year yield is at 2.25%[2] - Economic and inflation expectations are weakening, leading to a high probability of central bank support despite continued government debt net financing[2] Investment Strategy - February's bond market has a higher win rate than odds, suggesting a dynamic view on central bank threshold limits and a focus on duration strategy[2] - The market may see a bullish momentum if the 30-year bond yield breaks below 2.15%[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - January government bond issuance reached approximately 2.08 trillion yuan, with net financing exceeding seasonal levels[21] - February government bond issuance is expected to decrease year-on-year to 2.11 trillion yuan, with net financing dropping by 3.4 billion yuan[27] Economic Indicators - PMI data has shown an unexpected decline, contributing to weakened expectations for the New Year[3] - External demand may provide some support to the economy, with exports expected to drive growth[3] Market Sentiment - Bank buying power has increased, which is a key factor in the January interest rate decline[3] - The trading market's confidence in duration strategies is recovering, although it may take time for full restoration[3]

外销快速增长,后续新品类是看点 科沃斯(603486) ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 71.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.73 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.85 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.79 | 最近 12 月市场表现 ----------- SAC 证书编号: S0160525060001 sungian@ctsec.com 分析师 于雪娇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080005 yuxj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《扫地机内外销增速亮眼,期间费用率有 所优化》 2025-10-25 2.《科沃斯品牌内外销高增,积极布局具身 智能》 2025-08-18 3. 《收入业绩高增,被忽视的新消费公司》 2025-07-11 核心观点 盈利预测 | 市神(人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,502 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].