Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of approximately HKD 2.33 billion to HKD 2.57 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45%-60% [7] - The revenue growth is driven by the large-screen and mid-to-high-end strategies, which are anticipated to increase both the revenue and market share of large-size display business [7] - The company is enhancing its global supply chain and channel layout while improving AI digital capabilities, leading to better operational efficiency and cost management [7] - The product matrix is expected to expand with the introduction of SQD and RGB products, positioning the company favorably in the competitive landscape [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2023A: HKD 78,986 million - 2024A: HKD 99,322 million - 2025E: HKD 113,878 million - 2026E: HKD 125,663 million - 2027E: HKD 139,467 million - The net profit forecasts are: - 2023A: HKD 744 million - 2024A: HKD 1,759 million - 2025E: HKD 2,376 million - 2026E: HKD 2,911 million - 2027E: HKD 3,281 million [6][8] - The expected EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to grow from HKD 0.31 in 2023 to HKD 1.30 in 2027 [6][8] Key Financial Ratios - The projected PE (Price to Earnings) ratios are: - 2023A: 8.32 - 2024A: 8.77 - 2025E: 11.55 - 2026E: 9.43 - 2027E: 8.37 [6][8] - The ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to improve from 4.45% in 2023 to 14.44% in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI computing demand is surging, with advanced processes solidifying growth foundations. TSMC's revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, with advanced process revenue share rising to 77% [6][7] - Strong profitability resilience is noted, with gross margin reaching 62.3% and net profit margin at 48.3% in Q4 2025, significantly exceeding guidance [10][11] - Global capacity layout and technology/resource allocation are strengthening long-term barriers, with TSMC's overseas capacity expansion and advanced packaging facilities progressing [6][12] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with competitive advantages in advanced manufacturing and those benefiting from domestic advanced packaging capacity [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.04609 trillion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, driven by AI-related high-performance computing chip demand [7][10] - The advanced process (7nm and below) revenue share increased to 77%, with 3nm process contributing 28% of revenue, highlighting the importance of AI chip demand [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase from previous plans, focusing on advanced process capacity expansion and semiconductor equipment procurement [17][21] - The company aims for a long-term revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, with AI accelerator revenue CAGR adjusted upwards for 2024-2029 [21]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

全年社零+3.7%，稳健增长，提振政策显效 商贸零售 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2026.01.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -12% -4% 3% 10% 18% 25% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《社零+1.3%，商品消费略有降速》 2025-12-16 2. 《商社 2026 年年度策略报告》 2025- 12-13 3. 《餐饮增速转正，汽车、石油拖累社零大 盘》 2025-11-17 | 图 | 1： | 月度社零总额和当月同比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 城镇与乡村社零增速 3 | | 图 | 3： | 社零中商品零售与餐饮增速 3 | | 图 | 4： | 月度限额以上单位消费品零售额和当月同比 4 | | 图 | 5： | 限额以上商品零售增速 4 | | 图 | 6： | 限额以上餐饮收入增速 4 | | 图 | 7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Since the first open - ended fund was launched in the US in 1924, the US public fund industry has evolved over a century. The bond - type funds entered the growth stage in the 1980s and have experienced multiple interest - rate cycles. The long - term low - interest environment from 2011 - 2016 provides a historical model for analyzing China's current bond investment path [3]. - The US low - interest rate evolved in four steps: rapid decline (2011.1 - 2011.9), low - level fluctuation (2011.10 - 2013.6), interest - rate recovery (2013.7 - 2013.12), and return to decline (2014.1 - 2016.9). Each stage had different impacts on bond - type funds' performance, scale, and asset allocation [3]. - The US bond - type funds could continuously expand due to factors such as the relative attractiveness of US interest rates globally, the expansion of the US asset - management industry, the tool - based and passive nature of bond - type funds in a low - interest environment, and investors' "Reaching for Yield" behavior [3]. - US bond - type funds did not continuously increase duration in the low - interest period because the spread was extremely compressed, interest - rate fluctuations were large, and there were more investment tools and a wider investment scope [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 US Bond - type Fund Development History and Classification 3.1.1 US Bond - type Fund Development History - The US fund industry's development can be divided into three stages: traditional mutual - fund development (1924 - 1980) dominated by stock and hybrid funds; the rise of pension - based asset allocation (1980 - 2000) forming the buyer's investment - advisor model; and the shift to passive investment (2000 - present) with fund companies transforming into investment - advisory services [7]. - For bond - type funds, the period from 1980 to the present can be further divided into three stages: a stable growth period (1980 - 2007) when the US interest rate declined for nearly 30 years, and the bond - type fund scale grew from $46.24 billion in 1984 to $1.68 trillion in 2007, also benefiting from the 401(k) plan and product innovation; a rapid development period (2008 - 2020) after the 2008 financial crisis, with bond - type funds rebounding in scale due to Fed's policies and the stock - bond rebalancing strategy; a recovery growth period (2020 - present) with fluctuations caused by the public - health event and Fed's interest - rate hikes [9][12]. 3.1.2 US Bond - type Fund Classification - Classified by tax, US bond - type funds are divided into taxable bond funds and municipal bond funds. If the proportion of municipal bonds in bond assets exceeds 67%, it is defined as a municipal bond fund; otherwise, it is a taxable bond fund. The median remaining term of municipal bond funds from 2010 - 2024 was 15.79 years, with a median credit score of 7.49 (A -) and a median quarterly return of 0.88%. Taxable bond funds, accounting for 84% of the total bond - type funds in 2024, mainly invest in non - municipal bonds and have a more complex composition [14]. - Taxable bond funds can be further divided into investment - grade, high - yield, global, federal - government, and mixed - bond types. Municipal bond funds can be divided into state - and - local - municipal and national - municipal bond types [15]. 3.2 How Did US Bond - type Funds Respond During the Long - term Low - interest Period? 3.2.1 Four - step Deduction of Low Interest Rates - Rapid decline stage (2011.1 - 2011.9): Bond - type fund scale increased, credit grade rose slightly, government - bond fund duration decreased, and high - yield bond funds' returns declined significantly due to the European debt crisis and the US debt - ceiling crisis [23]. - Low - level fluctuation stage (2011.10 - 2013.6): Government - bond fund scale declined after reaching a peak, corporate - bond fund scale growth slowed, credit grades declined, and bond - type fund performance declined after reaching a peak [23]. - Interest - rate recovery stage (2013.7 - 2013.12): Government - bond fund scale declined sharply, investment - grade bond fund scale remained stable, high - yield bond fund scale increased, and bond - type fund performance declined comprehensively [24]. - Return to decline stage (2014.1 - 2016.9): Government - bond and investment - grade bond fund scales increased, high - yield bond fund scale first increased then decreased, credit grades rose, and bond - type fund returns first increased then decreased [24]. 3.2.2 Reasons for the Continuous Expansion of US Bond - type Funds - Globally, US interest rates were still attractive compared to other developed countries from 2011 - 2016 [34]. - Macroeconomically, the US asset - management industry was in an expansion period, benefiting from stock - bond balanced allocation and population aging and pension plans. The stock - bond rebalancing strategy led to the expansion of bond - type funds during the stock - market boom, and pension plans brought continuous capital inflows [34][35]. - In the long - term low - interest environment, bond - type funds became more tool - based and passive. Indexed bond funds had advantages such as low fees, transparent investment strategies, diversified risks, and high liquidity [36]. - In the low - interest environment, US investors' "Reaching for Yield" behavior was more prominent. Bond - type funds used credit - sinking strategies and increased overseas investment to pursue returns and maintain scale expansion [39]. 3.3 US Bond - type Fund Fee Issues - US mutual funds mainly charge operating fees and sales commissions. Currently, commission - free funds are mainstream in the US fund market. Operating fees include fund management fees, 12b - 1 fees, and other operating costs [44]. - The fee rate of bond - type funds is slightly lower than that of stock - type funds. In 2024, the asset - weighted average fee rate of US bond - type funds was 0.38%. The fee rate of bond - type funds has decreased significantly from 1996 - 2024, mainly due to the indexation trend [45]. 3.4 Appendix I: US Bond - type Fund Data Processing - A relatively complete US bond - type fund database was constructed based on the CRSP database combined with other data. The database contains about 550,000 quarterly samples of US bond - type funds since 2000 [50]. - SEC data is authoritative and discloses monthly data. In the first quarter of 2025, the total scale of US bond - type funds (excluding ETFs and closed - end funds) in mutual funds was $5.45 trillion, including $4.63 trillion in taxable bond funds and $0.82 trillion in municipal bond funds [52]. - ICI data has a longer time span and more detailed classification. In 2024, the scale of US bond - type mutual funds was $5.07 trillion according to ICI statistics [58]. - Morningstar classifies US bond - type funds into nearly 50 unique categories, providing more data dimensions that investors are concerned about [59]. 3.5 Appendix II: "Reaching for Yield" Behavior in a Low - interest Environment - In the US fund market, investors generally chase returns, but in China, there is a redemption anomaly where fund performance and capital flow are inversely related, which can be explained by the prospect theory and the disposition effect [63][64]. - In the low - interest era, corporate - bond funds optimize asset allocation and performance through "risk - taking/chasing returns," but the risk - adjusted alpha is not stable, and the tail risk increases [67]. - The "Reaching for Yield" index (RFY) can be decomposed into "credit sinking" (RFR), "lengthening duration" (RFM), and "selecting higher - yield bonds within the same rating and maturity bucket" (RFY_WRM). Higher RFY corresponds to higher nominal returns but no stable alpha after risk adjustment [68]. - Fixed - income funds can use interest - rate derivatives (IRDs) to increase duration exposure, but when interest rates reverse, losses are significantly magnified [70]. - The positive feedback between capital flow and yield strengthens the universality and importance of "Reaching for Yield" in a low - interest environment [74]. - When interest rates decline, capital not only re - distributes within bond funds but also flows to the stock market, especially high - dividend stock funds. In an ultra - long - term low - interest environment, the motivation of bond - type funds to deviate actively decreases [75][77].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - In January 2026, the passenger car market and the new energy vehicle market showed weak performance due to market policies. According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 11 were 328,000 units, down 32% year-on-year and 42% month-on-month; among these, new energy vehicle retail sales were 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and 67% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 35.5% for new energy vehicles [4] - The decline in sales is attributed to policies falling short of expectations. The reduction in purchase tax exemptions and the proportional subsidies have increased costs for mid-to-low-end vehicles, leading to a stronger consumer wait-and-see sentiment. This has resulted in a shift back to traditional fuel vehicles, and the anticipated demand release in January did not materialize [4] - The weakening demand for passenger cars is not necessarily negative, as it allows for clearer visibility of the competitive landscape in the mid-to-low-end market. The current market is characterized by a high preference for cost-effectiveness, and the focus remains on the new car cycle, with expectations for a surge in new car launches around the Beijing Auto Show in late April [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The passenger car market is currently in a seasonal downturn, with a significant drop in sales figures for both traditional and new energy vehicles [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the existing strategy for the automotive sector, focusing on: 1. **High-end Market**: Recommend companies with a strong brand and clear competitive advantages, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Xiaomi Group, while paying attention to the new car cycle of BAIC Blue Valley [4] 2. **Intelligent Vehicles**: Highlighting the importance of smart technology in the automotive sector, with a core recommendation for XPeng Motors [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: While acknowledging the long process of overseas expansion, BYD is recommended for its potential contributions from international markets [4]

Air Conditioning - Gree's main brand maintains a leading position with a 36.15% online market share, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while offline market share decreased by 9.25 percentage points[12] - The online sales of Gree air conditioners reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.74%, while offline sales were 300 million yuan, down 66.42%[12] - The newly launched Jinghong air conditioner targets the cost-effective engineering machine and online retail market, achieving an online market share of 5.51%[16] Refrigerators - Jinghong refrigerator's online sales reached 994,500 yuan, down 66.66% year-on-year, and offline sales were 768,000 yuan, down 44.94%[22] - Jinghong refrigerator's online market share is 0.05%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, while offline market share is 0.06%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points[22] Washing Machines - Gree washing machines saw online sales increase by 940.44% year-on-year, reaching 3.7757 million yuan, while offline sales rose by 150.12% to 190,800 yuan[24] - The online market share for Gree washing machines is 0.17%, up 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, and offline market share is 0.02%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points[24] Overseas Expansion - Gree's overseas revenue reached 16.335 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%[27] - The company has established a multi-brand strategy with brands like "GREE," "TOSOT," and "KINGHOME," covering over 190 countries and regions[27]

Group 1 - Gree Electric Appliances is actively diversifying its brand portfolio and leveraging multiple product categories to support long-term growth [7][11] - The company's main brand maintains a strong market position in air conditioning, with an online market share of 36.15%, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in offline market share [12][19] - Gree's sub-brand, Jinghong, is positioned to capture the low-end market, achieving an online market share of 5.51% in the air conditioning segment [16][18] Group 2 - Jinghong refrigerators focus on high-end preservation technology, but sales performance remains weak, with online sales down 66.66% year-on-year [22][23] - Gree's washing machines have seen significant growth, with online sales increasing by 940.44% year-on-year, particularly in the high-end market segment [24][26] - The company has expanded its overseas strategy, achieving a 10.19% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, with products now available in over 190 countries [27][29] Group 3 - The home appliance sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall market down 0.1% recently, while specific segments like black goods have seen gains [30][32] - Recent data indicates a decline in sales for major appliances, with year-on-year decreases in categories such as air conditioning and refrigerators [43][58] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to local markets and developing products suited for extreme climates to enhance competitiveness [29][39]