Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in the operational efficiency of its main business, the cableway operations, while actively expanding into new business areas to seek additional growth [8] - The key project, Qiandao Lake Muxin Valley, is currently under construction and is expected to become a new performance growth point in the future [8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.58 billion, 7.24 billion, and 7.92 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -5%, +10.0%, and +9.5% respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported revenues of 211 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71 million yuan, down 10.67% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 63.86%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 33.50%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 503 million yuan, down 9.07% year-on-year, with a net profit of 138 million yuan, down 11.07% year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected earnings for 2025 include revenues of 658 million yuan, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.90 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.8 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.8% in 2025, increasing to 12.4% by 2027 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock price closed at 15.15 yuan as of October 28, 2025 [2] - Over the past 12 months, the company’s stock has experienced a performance decline of 9%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.941 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 153 million yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [7] - New orders maintained high growth, with a total of 1.02 billion yuan in new contracts signed in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 135.83%. The company has sufficient backlog orders to support stable operations [7] - The company's profitability has declined, with a decrease in operating cash flow compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 17.77%, down 1.98 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 2,657 million yuan - 2024A: 2,554 million yuan - 2025E: 2,762 million yuan - 2026E: 3,228 million yuan - 2027E: 3,764 million yuan - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 282 million yuan - 2024A: 263 million yuan - 2025E: 302 million yuan - 2026E: 394 million yuan - 2027E: 504 million yuan - EPS Forecast: - 2023A: 0.43 yuan - 2024A: 0.40 yuan - 2025E: 0.47 yuan - 2026E: 0.61 yuan - 2027E: 0.78 yuan [6][8] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 302 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 504 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17.9, 13.8, and 10.7 respectively. The recommendation remains "Accumulate" [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a 33.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, reaching 20.47 billion yuan, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [7] - The sales gross margin in Q3 was 9.2%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year and 3.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company is actively exploring new business models with a dual-line approach of "large stores + small stores," focusing on cultural consumption [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.18 billion yuan, 31.34 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 860 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.01 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 16.55 billion yuan in 2023, 20.23 billion yuan in 2024, 27.18 billion yuan in 2025, 31.34 billion yuan in 2026, and 34.20 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The net profit is projected to be 707 million yuan in 2023, 719 million yuan in 2024, 863 million yuan in 2025, 913 million yuan in 2026, and 1.01 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.91 yuan in 2023, 0.92 yuan in 2024, 1.11 yuan in 2025, 1.17 yuan in 2026, and 1.30 yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 16.4 in 2023, 12.3 in 2024, 12.9 in 2025, 12.2 in 2026, and 11.0 in 2027 [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 18.7% in 2023, 18.1% in 2024, 20.2% in 2025, 20.4% in 2026, and 21.5% in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs in cross-border e-commerce, transitioning from point cost control to systematic efficiency improvement [9] - A partnership with Huawei Cloud has been established to develop an AI video generation model, which aims to create tailored models for the cross-border e-commerce sector [9] - The company anticipates revenue growth from 98.8 billion RMB in 2025 to 115.5 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 1.0 billion RMB to 3.1 billion RMB during the same period [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections are as follows: 6,518 million RMB in 2023, 9,022 million RMB in 2024, 9,875 million RMB in 2025, 10,674 million RMB in 2026, and 11,545 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 47.6%, 38.4%, 9.4%, 8.1%, and 8.2% respectively [7][10] - Net profit is forecasted to decline from 332 million RMB in 2023 to 101 million RMB in 2025, before recovering to 205 million RMB in 2026 and 305 million RMB in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 53.1%, -48.8%, -40.9%, 103.7%, and 48.8% respectively [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to decrease from 0.88 RMB in 2023 to 0.25 RMB in 2025, then increase to 0.51 RMB in 2026 and 0.75 RMB in 2027 [7][10] Operational Efficiency - The company has a workforce of 281 technical personnel, accounting for 8.08% of total employees, focusing on enhancing digital and information management across operations [9] - AI applications are expected to improve information transmission efficiency and reduce operational and management costs, aiding in market trend analysis and inventory management [9]

化债策略-如何深度挖掘中低价转债做类底仓？ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 买卖国债重启怎么看？》 2025-10-28 2. 《信用 | 利差已低，等待债市下行》 2025-10-26 3. 《中美会谈， 转债市场 怎么看？》 2025-10-26 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.10.29 核心观点 ❖ 风险提示：历史统计规律失效风险；宏观变化超预期风险；信用事件风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 什么是化债策略？化债是转股意愿较强的转债发行人为了促转股而主动推 进的规划，主要是针对强赎线以下的中低价转债。如果中低价转债能成功强 赎，那么当前的转债价格与未来触发强赎时的转债价格差值即为较确定的收 益空间。化债策略博弈实际是反向定价转债的强赎成功率，在资产荒的背景 下，通过更左侧的布局时间，以更低的价格入场，获取更大的确定性收益空 间（强赎均价-参与价） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.319 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 2.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.44% to 629 million yuan [9] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 2.684 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.03%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 361 million yuan, up 51.67% year-on-year [9] - The company is focusing on optimizing product strategies and improving operational efficiency to counteract pressures in the real estate market [9] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 742 million, 793 million, and 906 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 0.96, and 1.09 yuan [9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 9.063 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.63%, while the net profit is expected to be 689 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 54.66% [8] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 9.189 billion yuan, with a slight growth rate of 1.39%, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 15.11% [8] - For 2025, the expected revenue is 9.019 billion yuan, a decline of 1.85%, but the net profit is forecasted to increase by 26.86% to 742 million yuan [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock price closed at 12.28 yuan, with a total share capital of 830 million shares and a circulating share capital of 736 million shares [2] - The company has shown a market performance of -21% over the last 12 months, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the home improvement materials sector [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Stock Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the comprehensive judgment of economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - **Construction Process**: - Construct timing factors from two core dimensions: economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - Factors include PMI YoY smoothed value, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount cumulative YoY, CPI YoY smoothed value, and new medium and long-term loans cumulative value YoY[19] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using CSI 800 total return as the benchmark[19] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures stock market cycles, avoiding downturns[21] 2. Model Name: Bond Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model analyzes from the perspective of monetary liquidity supply and demand[23] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include DR007, SHIBOR, and social financing scale stock YoY smoothed value[24] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if short-term average < long-term average} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using ChinaBond Treasury Total Net Price Index as the benchmark[24] - **Evaluation**: The model captures bond market trends, minimizing drawdowns[25] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts risk budgets for different assets based on timing signals[17] - **Construction Process**: - Use a risk parity model to allocate risk contributions of assets[30] - Adjust risk budgets based on stock and bond timing signals[32] - Optimize the model: $$ \begin{array}{c} \min \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( RC_i - b_i \sigma_p \right)^2 \\ \text{s.t.} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \omega_i = 1 \\ 0 \leq \omega_i \leq 1 \end{array} $$ - Backtest using a combination of CSI 800, ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index, CSI Convertible Bond Index, S&P 500 ETF, and AAA Credit Bonds[31] - **Evaluation**: The strategy provides higher absolute returns while controlling risk[38] Model Backtest Results Stock Timing Model - Annualized Return: 14.1%[21] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.4%[21] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.7%[21] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.7%[21] Bond Timing Model - Annualized Return: 2.3%[25] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Monthly Win Rate: 68.3%[25] All-Weather Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.1%[38] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.1%[38] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.0%[38] - Maximum Drawdown: 2.6%[38] - Sharpe Ratio: 2.04[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value-Growth Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic recovery, liquidity, and market sentiment[47] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, M2 YoY smoothed value, social financing YoY smoothed value, medium and long-term loan growth YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[48] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the National Growth Index and National Value Index[48] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of value and growth styles[47] 2. Factor Name: Size Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic prosperity, liquidity, and market sentiment[55] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, gold daily return rate, government bond yield, credit spread, M1 YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[56] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index[57] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of large-cap and small-cap styles[55] Factor Backtest Results Value-Growth Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[51] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.7%[51] - Excess Annualized Return: 7.5%[51] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.2%[51] Size Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[59] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 0.1%[59] - Excess Annualized Return: 9.0%[59] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[59] Industry Rotation Solution 1. Factor Name: Macro Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the second-order changes in economic growth and liquidity[67] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include PMI, social financing scale, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, CPI, M2 growth rate, 10-year government bond yield, and credit spread[70] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[73] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the marginal inflection points of macro trends[67] 2. Factor Name: Fundamental Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations[79] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry component stock median, industry profitability, and industry consensus profit expectations[79] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[82] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the core of industry prosperity[79] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns[87] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry index relative excess return IR, leading stock sharp ratio, and K-line pattern score[89] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[96] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the technical evaluation of industry trends[87] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction proportion[100] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry financing buy amount, industry turnover rate, and industry transaction amount proportion[101] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[104] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the crowding level of industries[100] Industry Rotation Backtest Results Macro Factor - Annualized Return: 42.9%[73] - Benchmark Annualized Return: -22.8%[73] - Excess Annualized Return: 65.7%[73] Fundamental Factor - Annualized Return: 11.3%[85] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[85] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.5%[85] - IC Mean: 8.2%[85] Technical Factor - Annualized Return: 9.7%[97] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[97] - Excess Annualized Return: 6.9%[97] - IC Mean: 8.2%[97] Crowding Factor - Annualized Return: -2.9

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 9.10 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.97% [7] - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.66% year-on-year to 1.91 billion yuan due to increased R&D investments and rising personnel costs [7] - The company continues to maintain high R&D spending, with a total of 459 million yuan in R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.34% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported: - Revenue of 2.38 billion yuan, up 25.34% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders of 191 million yuan, down 29.66% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit of 161 million yuan, down 39.93% year-on-year [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 3.39 billion yuan, 4.21 billion yuan, and 5.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 325 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 656 million yuan [7][8] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 57.2, 36.1, and 28.3 respectively [7][8] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the company's stock has shown a performance of -20%, while the semiconductor sector has seen a performance of 31% [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in the scale in the third quarter of this year is mainly due to the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits after the major banks lowered deposit rates in May, the acceleration of floating profit release during the valuation rectification process by the end of the year, and the fact that the third quarter is a traditional peak season for wealth management growth. Looking ahead, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, but the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified after the full completion of valuation rectification [3][6][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Directory Reasons for the High Growth of Wealth Management Scale in the Third Quarter - The main reason for the large - scale increase in the third quarter is the combination of the major banks' deposit rate cut in May and the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits. From 2022 - 2023, residents' fixed deposits increased significantly at high interest rates, with 3 - year fixed deposits maturing in the next two years. After the rate cut in May, the interest rate difference between 3 - year and 1 - year fixed deposits dropped to 30BP, and the proportion of residents' fixed deposits declined, indicating that some deposits moved to wealth management [6] - By the end of the year, it may be the final node for the full completion of the valuation rectification task. During the rectification process, floating profits will be accelerated, and wealth management institutions can use this advantage to attract customers. Although bond market interest rates rose significantly in the third quarter, the proportion of fixed - income products remained stable above 97%, contributing most of the incremental scale, and the number of investors continued to grow. The average annualized return of wealth management products in the third quarter was 2.28%, still having an advantage over 3 - year fixed deposits [6] - Seasonally, the third quarter is usually a peak season for wealth management growth. From 2019 - 2024, the average growth of wealth management scale in the third quarter was 1.28 trillion yuan [6] Other Concerns in the Third - Quarter Report of Wealth Management - In terms of asset allocation, the proportion of cash and deposits increased significantly, the proportion of inter - bank lending increased slightly, and the proportions of other categories decreased to varying degrees. Although the equity market performed well, the proportion of equity assets still decreased slightly [6] - The leverage ratio decreased significantly, indicating that wealth management has a strong demand for stable net value when the bond market fluctuates [7] - The proportion of closed - end products increased slightly. Some closed - end wealth management products can use the amortized cost method for valuation, which may have certain advantages after the valuation rectification [7] Future Outlook - Whether from a seasonal perspective or the trend of fixed - deposit maturity, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. However, with the full completion of the valuation rectification of wealth management, the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, benefiting from innovations in AI optical technology [6] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the ongoing innovation cycle in consumer electronics, particularly with the introduction of variable aperture in the iPhone 18 Pro series [6] - The demand for AR glasses is high, with Meta's product selling out quickly, indicating strong market recognition [6] - The company is expected to lead in global AR display solutions by overcoming mass production challenges in reflective waveguide technology [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.78%, and a net profit of 983 million yuan, up 14.13% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.71% [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 35.02%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.69 percentage points but an increase of 4.12 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 7.167 billion yuan, 8.544 billion yuan, and 10.227 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.2%, 19.2%, and 19.7% [5] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.246 billion yuan, 1.492 billion yuan, and 1.856 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.0%, 19.7%, and 24.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.90 yuan, 1.07 yuan, and 1.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.4 in 2025 to 19.1 in 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.7% in 2025 to 15.8% in 2027 [5]