Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate cuts, now forecasting the first cut in August instead of June [5][7]. Core Insights - Services inflation in the UK was reported at 5.9% year-on-year in April, surpassing both consensus expectations and the Bank of England's May projection of 5.5% [2][5]. - Wage growth remains robust, with private sector regular pay showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, slightly below previous projections, but the outlook for wage growth is strong due to upcoming annual settlements [3][4]. - The growth outlook has improved significantly, with real GDP rebounding in Q1 and positive momentum expected to continue into Q2, supported by rising real incomes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Wage Growth - The report highlights a broad-based increase in services inflation, with a sequential rise of 0.56% month-on-month in April, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][5]. - The near-term outlook for wage growth is strong, with expectations of significant gains in the upcoming April pay data [3]. Economic Growth - Following a technical recession in H2, the report notes a rebound in real GDP growth, with a forecast of 0.3% gains for Q2-Q4 and an overall forecast of 0.8% growth for 2024, above the consensus of 0.5% [4][5]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the strong April CPI release makes a June rate cut unlikely, with the first expected cut now projected for August, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor market data [5][7]. - The pace of future rate cuts will depend on the persistence of inflation, with a cautious approach recommended due to higher domestic inflation compared to the US and Euro area [7][9]. - The report maintains a forecast of two cuts in 2024, four in 2025, and three in 2026, with various probabilities assigned to different scenarios regarding inflation persistence and labor market conditions [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) with a 12-month price target of $16.00 (ADR) and HK$62.30 (H-share) [12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights healthy subscriber and ARPU growth for FY24, with net adds expected to normalize after a strong 1Q performance [2][4]. - Management anticipates further growth in non-subscription revenue streams, particularly in advertising and artist merchandise, aiming for double-digit percentage growth in overall non-subs business in 2024 [8][9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) target is set at approximately 42% for FY24, with a long-term online music GPM target of 45% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Subscriber Growth - Management reported a net addition of 6.8 million subscribers in 1Q, driven by promotional activities during the Chinese New Year and effective marketing strategies [3][4]. - Future net adds are projected at 3.5 million in 2Q and 3 million in both 3Q and 4Q, leading to a total for the year that is slightly lower than 2023 but significantly higher than 2022 [4][5]. ARPU Growth - The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to stabilize with a healthy upward trend, although the year-over-year growth rate for ARPU in 2024 is likely to be lower than in 2023 [7][8]. - The target for ARPU is set to reach RMB 15 over the next 3-5 years, reflecting evolving user payment habits [8][9]. Non-Subscription Business - The report anticipates normalization in advertising growth following a low base in 1Q, with solid progress in digital albums and offline concerts [8][9]. - Management aims for double-digit percentage growth in overall non-subs business in 2024 [8][9]. Margin Expansion - Management maintains a guidance of 42% GPM for FY24, with expectations for continued improvement in online music GPM [9][10]. - The upward margin trend is supported by strong operating leverage, with revenue growth outpacing content costs [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) with a 12-month price target of $515.00, representing a 20.0% upside from the current price of $429.04 [1][5][8]. Core Insights - Microsoft is positioned as a leader in the generative AI space, enhancing its Copilot offerings to create customizable experiences for over 1 billion knowledge workers [1]. - The evolution of foundation models allows Microsoft to deliver cost-effective solutions across various platforms, enhancing its competitive edge [1]. - The company is leveraging its hardware capabilities to improve performance and reduce costs associated with generative AI workloads, particularly through its AI-first Copilot+ PCs [1]. - Microsoft is expected to capitalize on long-term trends such as public cloud consumption, SaaS adoption, and digital transformation, with a projected cloud business run-rate nearing $100 billion [2][8]. - The report anticipates a doubling of earnings per share from FY24 to FY28, driven by sustained growth in the Microsoft Cloud segment [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from $211.9 billion in FY23 to $319.2 billion by FY26, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3][6]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from $102.4 billion in FY23 to $174.1 billion by FY26, reflecting strong operational leverage [3][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from $9.68 in FY23 to $16.65 by FY26, showcasing significant profitability growth [3][6]. - The report highlights a free cash flow yield of 3.0% in FY23, expected to stabilize around 2.6% in the following years [3][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is well-positioned to expand its share of customer IT budgets due to its broad portfolio and strong presence across all layers of the cloud stack [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of its E5 offerings, which currently have low to mid-teens penetration rates [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Microsoft's productivity suite and cloud services in solidifying its competitive moat and driving ongoing strength in its cloud segment [8].

### 一、硅光技术与光模块行业趋势 -**硅光技术概述**：硅光技术通过集成多个分立器件，利用90nm、180nm等低制程CMOS 工艺设计光学结构，有效减少无源器件使用，降低对激光器的依赖（例如，传统8通道需8 个激光器，而硅光方案只需2-4个）。 -**国内市场动态**：国内企业加速发布硅光产品，与国内外晶圆厂合作紧密，市场分为自 研硅光芯片与购买海外芯片两大阵营，前者虽研发投入大但控制力强，后者则能快速扩大规 模。 -**未来预测**：预计2023年400G、800G和1.6T光模块市场渗透率将显著提升至30%-40%， 其中高端光模块的关键器件供应紧张状况持续。硅光技术成为解决AI需求激增下交付问题 的关键。 ### 二、行业动态与投资机会 -**市场需求**：调研显示，光纤阵列和短跳线需求紧俏，供应商正快速扩产，但短缺状态 预计将持续。光迅科技、化工等公司存货增加，预示着对未来的市场准备。 -**出口情况**：光模块出口数据良好，苏州、江苏等地环比增长超20%，四川增长5%-10%， 反映出口导向型行业特征及AI需求推动力。 -**投资视角**：关注二季度业绩订单，海外企业已实现业绩增长，预计国内 ...

光伏当前观点及主要推荐240523民生原文 2024年05月23日09:20 发言人100:00 本次电话会议仅供民生证券专业投资者参考，会议内容任何情况下都不构成投资建议，任何机构或个人 不得以任何形式泄露本次会议内容，否则，由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担。本公 司保留追究其法律责任的权利。 发言人200:21 好的，各位投资者，大家早上好。我是民生电信的邓永康，在线还有我们组的朱碧野。今天简短的花一 点时间，给大家汇报一下光伏的观点。我们的观点没有太大的变化，之前也跟大家反复讲过，就是光伏 行业的一些基本情况。 发言人200:41 从行业的主要矛盾来看，其实主要是产生在供给端。供给端它其实是需要时间去消化的，我们确实看到 一季度的时候，很多公司已经进入亏钱的状态。亏钱并不能够解决整个产业里面供给过剩这个问题。有 需求其实是一直在增长的，包括看去年的需求情况，还有今年的整个月度的国内和海外的需求情况来 看，需求一直是再往上走的。所以我们认为，光伏的核心矛盾，其实并不在于需求端，而是在于供给 端。而且因为供给端的这个竞争，包括产能过剩，使得产能的价格是持续下行的。那么过去一年的光伏 组件的价格 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is related to the securities industry, specifically focusing on the insights provided by the Zhejiang Merchants Securities Research Institute [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the call is directed towards institutional investors and invited third-party guests, emphasizing that the opinions expressed are personal and do not constitute specific investment advice regarding securities at particular price points or market conditions [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call serves as a reminder that all information shared is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as a definitive judgment on market performance [1]

Please remain on the line. 本次电话会议仅服务于长江证券研究所白名单客户未经长江证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对外公布、复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议相关内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担长江证券保留追究其法律责任的权利 好的感谢各位领导各位投资者参加今天早上八点钟的这个造纸行业的观点及近况跟踪我是长江清风团队的仲敏丽那么其实今天的话呢就是开这个电话会的主要目的是想就是提示一下各位投资者就是在这一次这个整个可能地产政策这块比较 乐观或者说有一些变化的背景下的话其实因为造纸包括我们明天早上会讲的这个包装相关的板块他们其实更多的是在一个偏顺周期的这样一些投资的方向上因此的话其实我们能够看到最近在造纸还有包装相关的一些个股上 或者说有一些个股它可能和这个地产或者经济挂钩度更强的他们的整个股价表现其实最近也是有一些反映出来的就反映出这个对后续的可能经济消费的一些比较偏乐观的这样一个预期的转向所以今天也是借这个机会就是在跟大家去提示一下相关的这个行业的一些变化或者说一些个股的这样一些投资机会 那么首先呢我们还是其实从行业值这个角度出发因为我们之前刚刚发布了 ...

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 5月第二周交强险同比+20.6%，看好汽车板块！ 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2024年5月20日 ...

特别声明本会议为光大证券专业机构投资者设计任何情形下会议内容不构成对任何人的投资建议参会者应当充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 嘉宾发言内容仅代表嘉宾的个人观点和立场研究人员发言内容来自于以外发报告或对研报的跟踪解读观点仅代表报告发布当日的判断本会议内容的知识产权仅归光大证券所有 规定书面许可,任何机构和客人不得以任何形式、任何目的进行转发、翻版、复制、刷布或沿用会议全部或部分内容,亦不得擅自录音、制作会议机要、对外传播。主持人李克强:"好的,感谢各位领导的一个时间。我是光大证券电子通信行的研究员刘凯。 我们继续每周的科技的一个周会首先就是先请我的同事宇树讲一下光模块行业跟模拟行业的一个更新最近整个AI行业变化也比较大有请宇树先说一下谢谢好的好的谢谢台总我来向各位领导汇报一下就是关于光模块 呃和这个模拟芯片的观点呃先说一下就公共化行业就是呃上周主要的这个就AI方面主要的变化就是这个呃这个OpenAI发布了他最新的这个拆除GDP4的的这个模型呃发布以来呢就是这个呃那个英伟达的股价表现还是非常不错的 然后那个就是就带动A股的相关的AI的这个相关的公司也表现的比较好呃那那这个拆拆G ...

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于华安证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行名单投资风险 华安证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任未经华安证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制刊载转载转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究体法律责任的权利 那大家晚上好,我是河岸建材的眼光。那么今天晚上的话主要是汇报一下这个社会建材的一个行业观点以及防水龙头公司东方与红的更新。那么因为我们看到就是在昨天的话相关的这种政策也比较密集,所以我们给大家再介绍一下我们目前的一个观点。 首先的话是我们看到就是这次政策的转向以及它的这个幅度还是非常的明确的首先我们看到就是从政策转向背景主要还是来自于房地产的一个持续疲弱那么我们首先也看到各种的开工数据以及竣工数据的话都是同比20%的下滑 从房价的一个数据的话我们也看到单4月份70个大众城市的一个房价从同比和环比的话降幅进一步出现了扩大所以在这个背景之下首先是430的政治局会议出现了消化存量和优化增量的一个表态所以我们注意到5月份以来的 ...