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Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration
世界银行· 2025-04-04 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chain (GVC) participation, emphasizing the need for accurate metrics for informed policy-making [2][8] - It identifies three modes of GVC participation: pure backward, pure forward, and two-sided, which allows for a more nuanced understanding of how countries and industries engage in GVCs [8][25] - The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, particularly in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing [9][10] - GVC participation is shown to enhance overall output stability while increasing exposure to external shocks, highlighting its dual role in economic dynamics [11][21] Summary by Sections Introduction - The emergence of GVCs complicates policy-making by introducing new opportunities and risks compared to traditional trade [7] - GVC-led growth strategies can lead to better access to inputs and technology but also present challenges such as income inequality and exposure to imported shocks [7][8] Methodology - The paper develops enhanced accounting measures using inter-country input-output (ICIO) data to assess GVC participation [22] - A tripartite decomposition of GVC trade is introduced, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of countries' and sectors' engagement in GVC activities [24][25] Findings - Approximately half of GVC production, around USD 10 trillion in 2019, remains unaccounted for when only traditional trade metrics are considered [9] - The new metrics reveal that low and middle-income countries may be more shielded from international disturbances than previously thought during early trade liberalization phases [10] - GVC participation is positively correlated with higher per capita income growth, indicating its significance in economic development [11] Related Literature - The report discusses the need for rigorous measures of GVC participation to inform economic growth and development questions [13] - It highlights the limitations of existing measures and the importance of a comprehensive approach to understanding GVC dynamics [17][18] Conclusion - The paper underscores the importance of accurate GVC measurement for informed policy decisions and economic development strategies [12][21]
Accelerating Liquid Fuel Reduction in West Africa
世界银行· 2025-04-04 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the significant reliance on liquid fuels for electricity generation in West Africa, which imposes high costs and financial burdens on utilities [9][20] - It emphasizes the potential for enhanced regional power trade as a cost-effective solution to reduce dependence on liquid fuels and improve financial sustainability [10][28] - The report outlines practical steps for countries to reduce liquid fuel reliance, even in the absence of regional integration [57] Summary by Sections Key Findings & Recommendations - Liquid fuels contribute to high electricity costs, averaging US$ 0.26/kWh, and account for 73% of regional generation costs [9][20] - Regional power trade could triple from 9.7 TWh to 29.5 TWh by 2030, leading to an 82% reduction in liquid fuel generation [9][32] - Improved dispatch and management of existing grid assets can further reduce liquid fuel use [9][10] - Contractual terms for liquid fuel generation often create financial vulnerabilities for utilities [9][10] Liquid Fuels in West Africa's Current Power Generation Landscape - In 2022, liquid fuels provided 4.5 GW of capacity and generated 12.7 TWh of electricity across 14 West African countries [11][12] - Liquid fuels account for 14% of the total energy mix and 16% of installed power capacity in the region [17] - The average cost of electricity service is correlated with reliance on liquid fuels, with fuel costs comprising 73% of annual power generation expenses [20][21] Liquid Fuel Phase-down through Regional Power Trade - The West African Power Pool (WAPP) has the potential to significantly reduce liquid fuel dependence through enhanced regional trade [28][55] - The modeling indicates that full regional trade could lead to a reduction of 20 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2030 [47][55] - Addressing barriers such as poor financial performance of utilities and historical nonpayment issues is crucial for deeper integration [56] Developing Domestic Options for Near-term Liquid Fuel Reduction - Countries can optimize existing grid assets and improve management of liquid fuel contracts to reduce reliance on liquid fuels [57][62] - Dispatch optimization studies can lead to significant reductions in liquid fuel usage without major new infrastructure investments [62][63] - Scaling up alternatives to liquid fuels, including renewable energy sources, is essential for long-term sustainability [57][74]
Dynamic Social Registries for Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel
世界银行· 2025-04-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the need for dynamic social registries in the Sahel to enhance adaptive social protection systems, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [2][5][26]. Core Insights - Countries in the Sahel are experiencing interconnected shocks, particularly from climate change and conflict, necessitating systems that can quickly identify changes in household welfare [2][3]. - Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is highlighted as an effective approach for governments to support the poorest and most vulnerable populations, integrating various social protection policies and programs [3][8]. - Dynamic social registries are essential for accurately assessing welfare changes among vulnerable populations, enabling timely and effective support during crises [4][9][26]. Summary by Sections Recommendations for Dynamic Social Registries - Establish a permanent client-interface for households to provide and update data on-demand, ensuring the registry reflects current welfare conditions [5]. - Adopt a modular structure for socioeconomic questionnaires to enhance data collection efficiency and reduce costs [5][40]. - Ensure interoperability with other data sources and ASP delivery systems to improve coordination and effectiveness [6]. - Promote systematic peer-to-peer learning to enhance national capacities in implementing dynamic social registries [6][52]. Introduction - The policy note consolidates findings from a study on dynamic social registries in low-income and shock-prone contexts, particularly in the Sahel [7]. Importance of Dynamic Social Registries - Static social registries in the Sahel often lead to outdated data, which can significantly affect targeting accuracy and program effectiveness [23][24]. - Dynamic registries can mitigate data decay and support inclusive social protection programs, maximizing impact during rapidly changing conditions [26]. Features of Dynamic Social Registries - Dynamic registries allow continuous updates and intake of new data, combining self-reported information with administrative records [27]. - Key features include a unique gateway for households, continuous updates, and assessment of household needs based on program eligibility criteria [27]. Data Intake Modalities - Countries can maintain current social registries by utilizing various data sources, including direct self-reported data and indirect data from administrative records [28][34]. - A combination of direct and indirect data collection methods is recommended to ensure comprehensive household information [39]. Modular Structure for Questionnaires - Modular questionnaires can improve data management efficiency by allowing targeted data collection based on program needs [40][46]. - The core module captures essential data for all households, while complementary modules can be tailored for specific programs [46]. Cross-Country Learning - Systematic cross-country learning and cooperation can accelerate the establishment and expansion of dynamic social registries in the Sahel [52]. Conclusion - The design and implementation of dynamic social registries require balancing timely data collection with comprehensive coverage to effectively support vulnerable households [54][55].
Turkiye Poverty and Equity Assessment
世界银行· 2025-04-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The poverty assessment indicates that Türkiye has made significant progress in poverty reduction, with poverty rates halving from over 20% in 2007 to 9.84% in 2020, and chronic poverty declining from 24% to 10% [32][40]. - The main driver of poverty reduction has been income growth, particularly from labor, rather than redistribution of welfare [33][70]. - The report highlights the importance of tracking inequality outcomes and ensuring progressive growth to sustain poverty reduction [70]. Summary by Sections Introduction and Summary - The assessment aims to document the evolution of monetary poverty in Türkiye over the past two decades and identify the main drivers behind poverty reduction [18][19]. - It links changes in income distribution and shared prosperity trends over time, including a special section on poverty dynamics [18][19]. Recent Literature on Poverty, Inequality, and Mobility in Türkiye - Various studies have documented the trajectory and drivers of poverty, inequality, and mobility in Türkiye, showing a significant reduction in poverty rates driven by economic growth [21][22][23][24]. - The literature emphasizes the role of social assistance and economic reforms in reducing poverty and inequality [26][27][28][29]. Summary of Main Findings - Türkiye has seen a considerable decline in poverty rates, with chronic poverty and vulnerability to poverty also decreasing significantly [32]. - Labor income growth has been progressive, particularly between 2009 and 2016, contributing to shared prosperity [33][34]. - The demographic profile of the poor indicates that children and larger households are more vulnerable to poverty [36][37]. Policy Proposals - The report suggests prioritizing the creation of productive jobs that raise labor incomes and investing in human capital to eliminate poverty [71].
Clean Hydrogen for Road Transport in Developing Countries
世界银行· 2025-04-01 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hydrogen mobility sector in developing countries, but it highlights the potential for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) to emerge as economically viable alternatives in specific markets by 2030 [17][35]. Core Insights - Clean hydrogen is positioned as a key component in the transition to clean energy, particularly in sectors where emissions are hard to abate, such as transport [26][27]. - The report emphasizes the economic viability of FCEVs in densely populated countries, where environmental benefits may offset higher costs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles [35][47]. - The analysis indicates that while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently outperform FCEVs economically across all segments, FCEVs have operational advantages that could make them suitable for niche markets [36][51]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Hydrogen Mobility in Developing Countries - The transport sector is responsible for 22% of global CO2 emissions, necessitating a reduction of over 3% annually to meet net zero targets by 2050 [73]. - Clean hydrogen is gaining traction as a decarbonization solution for heavy-duty transport, despite the dominance of BEVs in the passenger vehicle market [74][75]. Chapter 2: Hydrogen Production and Cost Estimation - Global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes in 2023, with projections to grow to 49 million tonnes annually by 2030 [26]. - The report discusses the levelized costs of hydrogen production and refueling, highlighting the need for significant investment to scale up the clean hydrogen economy [24][31]. Chapter 3: Economics of Hydrogen Mobility - The economic analysis compares FCEVs, BEVs, and internal combustion engine vehicles across various segments, indicating that FCEVs face high capital and fuel costs [32][38]. - FCEVs could become economically viable in high-density urban areas, particularly in India and Korea, where air quality improvements justify their higher costs [47][48]. Chapter 4: Hydrogen Mobility Policy and Recommendations - The report outlines several recommendations for promoting hydrogen fuel adoption, including integrating clean hydrogen pilot projects into national strategies and targeting FCEV deployment in high-impact niche markets [56][60]. - It emphasizes the importance of developing robust policy frameworks to support the clean hydrogen economy and ensure alignment with renewable energy generation [61][64].
Climate Policies are Path-Dependent
世界银行· 2025-03-31 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the climate policy sector. Core Insights - The feasibility of introducing climate policies is path-dependent, meaning countries are more likely to adopt policies related to their previous experiences in climate policymaking [4][10][46]. - The report introduces 'Climate Policy Feasibility Frontiers' (CPFFs) to identify which new climate policies are most feasible for different countries based on their prior policy experiences [10][35][46]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of policy sequencing, suggesting that certain policies should be introduced in a specific order to enhance the likelihood of successful implementation [11][47]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the critical need to understand the feasibility of climate policy implementation across different countries, given the varying geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural, and institutional factors that influence this feasibility [7][8]. Results - The analysis reveals a nested structure in climate policy adoption, indicating that countries with fewer policy types tend to adopt more common policies, while more complex policies are found in countries with diverse policy portfolios [16][17]. - The report constructs a 'Climate Policy Space' network to visualize the relatedness of different climate policies, confirming that policy adoption is predictable based on prior experiences [19][21]. Predicting Future Climate Policy Adoption - A measure of 'Policy Alignment' is developed to predict the likelihood of future policy adoption based on the relatedness of new policies to existing ones in a country's policy mix [25][26]. - The findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in Policy Alignment increases the likelihood of introducing a new policy by 10.3 percentage points, nearly doubling the average adoption rate [29][30]. Climate Policy Feasibility Frontiers - The CPFF framework is designed to inform strategic climate policymaking by plotting Policy Alignment and Future Policy Enablement, helping countries identify feasible policy pathways [36][39]. - The report illustrates the CPFF for Türkiye and Vietnam, showing that each country's unique context influences the feasibility of introducing specific climate policies [39][44]. Discussion - The report contributes to the literature on policy sequencing and highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the political and capacity constraints that countries face in climate policymaking [46][47].
衡量国家ICT行业环境影响:Arcep案例研究(英)2025
世界银行· 2025-03-31 08:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the ICT sector Core Insights - The ICT sector is responsible for 1.5 to 4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, surpassing the aviation industry's emissions [17] - The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive methodologies to measure the environmental footprint of the ICT sector to inform decision-making and digital investments [15][19] - Arcep's approach serves as a model for other regulators, highlighting the importance of collaboration and data-driven regulation to enhance sustainability efforts [41] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The ICT sector is at a critical juncture, contributing to climate change while driving digital transformation [17] - There is a significant gap in data collection regarding the environmental impact of the ICT sector, which hampers effective policymaking [18] 2. Mandate and Regulatory Modifications - Arcep, established in 2005, has expanded its responsibilities to include measuring the environmental impact of the ICT sector [23] - In April 2022, Arcep published its first annual survey on digital sustainability, becoming the first regulator to publish environmental data from telecommunications operators [26] 3. Compilation Processes - Arcep's data collection involves sending questionnaires to selected companies based on their market presence and revenue [43] - The data collected includes GHG emissions, energy consumption, and other environmental indicators, following ISO standards and the GHG Protocol [54] 4. Utilization of Data - Arcep's annual survey aims to inform stakeholders about the ICT sector's environmental footprint and encourage efficient measurement of environmental impacts [74] - The findings indicate a rise in operational GHG emissions, electricity consumption, and water use in the data center industry, highlighting the need for action [66][70]
Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
世界银行· 2025-03-21 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Education is a key driver of personal and social development, with foundational literacy skills being essential for success in all academic subjects and everyday life [17][19] - Many children globally are unable to read with comprehension, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for effective classroom assessments to support foundational reading skills [20][24] - Classroom assessment plays a crucial role in the learning process, providing timely feedback to improve instruction and inform stakeholders about student progress [21][22] Summary by Sections 1. Assessment and Reading Proficiency – Concepts and Definitions - Effective education requires a curriculum, trained teachers, and learning assessments to identify learning gaps [30][31] - Learning assessment is the process of collecting information to inform educational decisions, with classroom assessments being the most relevant for foundational learning [32][34] 2. Classroom Assessment of Early Grade Reading Skills - Early Grade Reading (EGR) skills are foundational for literacy and must be assessed to ensure students progress along a learning trajectory [61][62] - Classroom assessments should reflect the reading progression framework to provide accurate information on students' mastery of skills [60][62] 3. Mapping of Assessment Tools with Respect to Early Grade Reading Skills - The report includes an overview of existing assessment tools and their alignment with early grade reading skills [3.1][3.2] 4. Supporting Teachers in Effective Practice of Literacy Classroom Assessment - Teacher training is essential for developing assessment competencies, which directly impact student achievement [4.1][4.2] 5. Key Issues in Development and Use of EGR Classroom Assessment - Language of instruction, curriculum alignment, and the use of technology are critical factors in the effectiveness of classroom assessments [5.1][5.2][5.4] 6. Conclusion - The document emphasizes the importance of integrating classroom assessment practices into teacher training to improve literacy outcomes [6] 7. References - The report includes a comprehensive list of references supporting its findings [7] 8. Additional Publicly Available Resources on Classroom Assessment - Additional resources are provided for further exploration of classroom assessment practices [8]
解决食物系统、营养和气候变化交汇问题的实用方案
世界银行· 2025-03-19 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the interconnected challenges of food insecurity, malnutrition, and climate change, advocating for the transformation of agricultural food systems to address these issues effectively [14][30]. - It highlights the importance of regional cooperation and knowledge sharing among South Asian countries to identify viable solutions for transforming agricultural food systems [30]. Summary by Relevant Sections Knowledge Exchange Series Overview - The knowledge exchange series facilitated comprehensive dialogue among hundreds of participants from South Asia, focusing on best practices and scalable solutions for agricultural food systems [15][28]. - The series included experts from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, enriching discussions with diverse insights [15]. Themes and Case Studies - The report outlines five key themes: water resource management, mountain-focused agricultural transformation, food loss and waste, policy innovation, and systemic inequality and social inclusion [10][20]. - Case studies were selected from various countries in the region, showcasing a range of solutions and practices aimed at improving agricultural food systems [22]. Implementation and Outcomes - The report details specific actions taken in various case studies, such as enhancing crop support, increasing private sector involvement, and promoting solar irrigation systems [33][39]. - Notable outcomes include increased production of wheat and vegetables for over 1.2 million households and improved employment opportunities for over 200,000 women [37].
罗马尼亚干旱风险评估(英)
世界银行· 2025-03-17 09:45
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Romania has experienced an increase in the frequency and severity of drought events over the past 50 years, exacerbated by climate change, leading to significant socio-economic and environmental impacts [22][44] - In 2022, Romania faced its most severe drought in 500 years, affecting 20 regions with water resource restrictions, a 30% reduction in hydropower production, and a 25-30% decrease in agricultural yields [22][44] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for proactive integrated drought risk management measures to enhance resilience in the population, water-dependent sectors, and the environment [22][24][32] Summary by Sections Introduction - Drought is characterized as a hydro-meteorological phenomenon resulting from insufficient precipitation, affecting larger areas for extended periods [16][18] - Romania has a historical context of severe droughts, with significant socio-economic impacts noted [18][19] Methodology - The report outlines key concepts related to drought, including disaster, exposure, vulnerability, and risk, and describes the EDORA methodology used for assessing current and future drought risks [54][55] Historical Drought Overview - Romania has become increasingly arid since 1980, with river flow decreasing since 2011, and future climate predictions indicate further temperature increases and prolonged heatwaves [28][29] Socio-Economic and Environmental Impacts - In 2022, over 160,000 hectares of land were affected by soil moisture deficits, leading to a 25-30% reduction in agricultural output and increased prices for animal feed [34] - Hydropower production was only 85% of the total annual output in 2022, with a projected increase in average annual losses (AAL) due to drought conditions [36][37] - The report highlights the need for improved data collection and risk assessment to support tailored drought risk management strategies [30][31] Opportunities for Enhanced Drought Risk Management - Recommendations include conducting comprehensive drought risk assessments, developing basin-scale drought management plans, and increasing investment for drought risk management [32][40]