政策研究工作论文 11300 数字信贷的崛起与监管 印度尼西亚的教训 萨拉曼·阿里巴伊 埃米莉·布雷萨 马丁·坎兹 弗朗 切斯科·斯特罗贝 发展经济学 发展研究中心 2 026年1月 公开披露已获授权 公开披露已获授权 公开披露已获授权 公开披露已获授权 政策研究工作论文系列发布了正在进行中的研究成果，以鼓励就发展问题进行思想交流。该系列的一个目标是尽快发布研究成 果，即使展示的文稿不够完全完善。论文署有作者姓名，应相应引用。本文中表达的研究发现、解释和结论完全是作者的个人 观点。它们不一定代表国际复兴开发银行/世界银行的看法及其附属机构，或世界银行的执行董事或他们所代表政府 的看法。 由研究支持团队制作 数字信贷的崛起与监管：印度尼西亚的经验 * 政策研究工作论文11300 摘要 本文研究了印度尼西亚金融科技贷款的兴起，使用了包 含超过13.9万条个人信用记录的数据集，这些记录代表 了该国消费者贷款的全范围。分析表明，金融科技贷款 已深深融入印度尼西亚的金融格局，在样本期结束时， 超过40%的借款人至少持有一次金融科技贷款。虽然数 字借贷者通过触达大量以前无银行账户的家庭扩大了金 融包容性，但它们在地理覆盖 ...

Promise, Performance, and Prospects Frontier Market Economies Tommy Chrimes, Philip Kenworthy, Jiwon Lee, Kate McKinnon, Takuma Tanaka, and Hamza Zahid Frontier Market tier Market EconomiesEconomies Economies Economies Promise, Performance, and Prospects Tommy Chrimes, Philip Kenworthy, Jiwon Lee, Kate McKinnon, Takuma Tanaka, and Hamza Zahid e text of this advance edition is part of the report Global Economic Prospects, January 2026 (doi: 10.1596/978- 1-4648-2267-4). A PDF of the %nal book is available at ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Understanding the long-term impact of energy price changes on consumer spending is crucial, as energy prices significantly influence household and business expenditures [20][41] - The analysis utilizes national energy cost shares, a practical indicator measuring the ratio of energy costs to GDP, covering data from 142 countries over 40 years [21][43] - The report highlights a long-term decline in energy cost shares despite rising energy prices, attributed to systematic reductions in energy intensity due to technological advancements and energy efficiency policies [22][23] - Economic growth is associated with a decrease in energy cost shares, with energy prices having a more significant impact on these shares than GDP changes [23][24] - The short-term response to energy price increases is more pronounced, with a 10% rise in energy prices correlating to an approximate 8% increase in energy cost shares in the same year, which eventually stabilizes at around 4.8% [25][26] - The median adjustment period for economies to absorb price increases is about 18 years, indicating a slow adjustment process [26] - Countries exhibit varying capacities to adapt to energy price increases, with high-income nations showing lower long-term price elasticity, suggesting a stronger ability to absorb price shocks [27][28] - Energy efficiency policies play a critical role in mitigating the impact of price increases on cost shares, emphasizing the need for comprehensive energy efficiency frameworks [28][29] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report aims to explore how energy cost shares evolve with changes in energy prices and economic activity, addressing the limited understanding of these dynamics in existing literature [40][41] Dataset Overview - The analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset that includes energy consumption and price data across various sectors and countries, providing a robust foundation for the econometric analysis [51][54] Evolution of Energy Cost Shares - The report presents empirical observations indicating a strong short-term correlation between energy prices and cost shares, which diminishes over time [68][69] - The relationship between energy cost shares and prices varies significantly across different income groups, with lower-income countries showing a more pronounced correlation [74][78] Policy Implications - The findings suggest that targeted energy efficiency policies and fiscal measures can enhance economic resilience to energy price fluctuations, highlighting the importance of tailored reform strategies [29][33][36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transport resilience sector, but emphasizes the critical need for investment prioritization and resource allocation to enhance road network resilience against climate hazards [17][18]. Core Insights - Road networks are essential for economic growth and social well-being, but they face increasing risks from aging infrastructure and climate change, necessitating adaptation investments projected to exceed hundreds of billions annually by 2030 [17][18]. - Effective transport resilience analysis has evolved into practical, scalable approaches that can be applied even in data-limited contexts, focusing on multidimensional risks at asset, system, and user levels [18][19]. - The report identifies two key analytical tools: the Global Resilience Index (GRI) for rapid vulnerability assessments and the Hazard & Risk Multi-Regional Assessment (HARMA) for in-depth economic analysis of climate impacts on transport networks [21][22]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report highlights the increasing vulnerability of road networks to climate hazards and the urgent need for strategic investment in resilience measures [17][18]. - It outlines a common sequence of analytical steps for transport resilience assessments, emphasizing the importance of integrating economic analysis into prioritization efforts [19][20]. Resilience Assessment Methodology and Tools - The methodology for resilience assessments includes defining the scope, identifying climate hazards, and employing a five-step analytical framework: mapping exposure, assessing vulnerability, analyzing system criticality, identifying resilience measures, and conducting economic analysis [40][41][49][55]. - The GRI and HARMA models are presented as effective tools for conducting resilience assessments, with GRI focusing on rapid screening and HARMA providing detailed economic evaluations [56][58]. Case Studies - The report includes case studies from the Kyrgyz Republic, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil, and Malawi, showcasing practical applications of resilience analysis tools and their impact on investment prioritization and infrastructure planning [64][66][68]. - In the Kyrgyz Republic, a GRI application identified high-risk corridors for intervention, while Nigeria's assessment estimated significant repair costs from flooding, highlighting the need for targeted resilience investments [65][82]. - Pakistan's HARMA application demonstrated the tool's capability to assess network criticality and prioritize investments based on climate risks, while Brazil's integration of resilience analysis into operational processes exemplified effective implementation [66][67].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the health sector in low- and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs) but emphasizes the need for increased government health spending to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [8]. Core Insights - The report outlines pathways for LLMICs to expand government health spending amidst fiscal constraints, declining external support, and rising competition for public resources [8]. - It highlights that government health expenditure (GHE) per capita in LLMICs doubled in real terms from US$24 in 2000 to US$46 in 2022, but growth has significantly slowed since 2009 [30][31]. - The report identifies institutional, technical, and operational challenges that hinder the mobilization of government financing for health [40][41]. Summary by Sections Part A: Heed the Signs - Government health spending per capita in LLMICs has slowed markedly, with annual increases dropping from nearly 6% (2000-2009) to just 2% (2009-2019) [64]. - In 2022, average government health spending was US$16 per capita in low-income countries (LICs) and US$60 in LLMICs, falling short of the US$70 and US$90 benchmarks needed for UHC [67]. - Nearly half of LLMICs are projected to face stagnation or declines in government health spending due to high debt obligations and competition for resources [68]. Part B: Mind the Returns - The report emphasizes the economic, social, and political returns of investing in health, which are often overlooked due to their complexity and preventive nature [33][35]. - It discusses how government decision-making is centralized, limiting the role of health ministries and leading to fragmented health sectors [34]. Part C: Raise the Game - The report suggests that countries can elevate health as a political priority through policy reforms and institutional changes [41][42]. - It outlines the importance of collaboration between ministries of health and finance to improve budget formulation and execution [41][44]. Part D: Shift the Course - The fiscal pivot pathways proposed in the report include political economy strategies and technical measures to enhance government health spending [40][48]. - The report stresses the need for sustained commitment to health investments despite the challenges posed by external pressures and internal constraints [48].

NEPAL: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE JUDICIARY Readiness Assessment APRIL 2025 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /the World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Rapid Social Response (RSR) program has evolved over 15 years to build social protection systems that address pressing development challenges, initially launched in response to the global financial crisis of 2008 [19][20] - The program has supported nearly 100 countries, mobilizing over $17 billion in operational financing and reaching 176.1 million people [24][29] - RSR has transitioned from crisis response to a focus on long-term resilience and economic inclusion, with a goal to reach 500 million people with social protection and employment support by 2030 [14][25] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - RSR has helped countries build social protection systems to confront development challenges, catalyzing over $17 billion in financing through 420 grants [19][24] - The program has adapted to new challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and has focused on building resilient systems that can absorb shocks [21][25] RSR Phase One: Crisis Response Through Catalytic Action - RSR provided support to 42 low-income countries, protecting 1.58 billion vulnerable people from crises [56] - The program focused on establishing safety nets, maintaining access to essential services, and generating knowledge for policy [58][60] RSR Phase Two: Expand Social Protection and Advance Labor Market Inclusion - RSR evolved to strengthen national social protection systems and improve labor opportunities for marginalized groups [77][82] - The program introduced digital tools and behavioral insights to enhance service delivery and program outcomes [78][82] Strong Foundations for Effective Social Protection Systems - RSR catalyzed innovation in social protection systems, expanded coverage, and ensured inclusivity [85] - Targeted investments in delivery systems and economic inclusion can transform long-term development outcomes [85] Boost Women's Access to Jobs - RSR initiatives have reduced gender gaps in economic opportunity and increased women's participation in the labor force [96] - Programs have addressed structural barriers limiting women's access to jobs and financial systems [96][98] Comprehensive Solutions to Gender-Based Violence - RSR has supported integrated approaches to combat gender-based violence, promoting gender equality through social protection [111][114] - The program has developed tools to leverage safety nets for GBV prevention, emphasizing community engagement [117][118] Deliver Food and Nutrition Security through Stronger Social Protection Systems - RSR has promoted integrated, nutrition-sensitive social protection to improve food and nutrition outcomes [123] - The program has shifted towards data-driven approaches to enhance service delivery and accountability in food security initiatives [124]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Palestinian health system, but it highlights significant challenges and inefficiencies that could impact investment decisions. Core Insights - The Palestinian health system faces structural barriers to equitable service provision due to political fragmentation and movement restrictions, particularly affecting access to health services in Gaza and the West Bank [24][30]. - Health outcomes in the region are mixed, with a high burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and rising maternal and infant mortality rates, indicating a need for improved health policies and interventions [28][40]. - The health financing system is characterized by high out-of-pocket expenditures, significant arrears, and a reliance on external financing, which complicates sustainability and efficiency [31][32]. Summary by Sections Health Outcomes - The Palestinian population is predominantly young, with a high total fertility rate and a declining dependency ratio, indicating potential for a demographic dividend [38]. - Life expectancy has declined from 74 in 2022 to 65 in 2024 due to the ongoing conflict, with maternal and infant mortality rates showing an upward trend [28][40]. - NCDs account for 72% of the disease burden, with high rates of risk factors such as smoking and obesity contributing to this trend [29][44]. Physical and Human Resources, Health System Capacity and Quality - The health service delivery system is fragmented, with a reliance on public facilities and significant shortages of medical equipment and essential medicines, particularly in Gaza [30][52]. - There is a need for improved management of chronic diseases and a more comprehensive approach to service provision, including better training for healthcare providers [52][53]. Overview of Health Financing Flows - In 2022, health spending in West Bank and Gaza was US$1.9 billion, representing 10.5% of GDP, significantly higher than regional averages [31]. - Out-of-pocket spending has increased, highlighting gaps in financial risk protection, with 14% of general government expenditures allocated to health [31][34]. Revenue Raising and Health Expenditures - The government health budget is heavily weighted towards wages and outside medical referrals, limiting resources for investments in primary health care [31][32]. - Health sector arrears exceeded US$900 million in 2024, with financing constraints leading to high unit costs and medicine stockouts [32]. Pooling Arrangements - The Government Health Insurance (GHI) scheme covers approximately 64% of the population, but low contribution rates limit its effectiveness as a risk-pooling mechanism [33]. - Out-of-pocket expenditures have risen significantly, with catastrophic health expenditures affecting 10% of households in 2023 [34]. Purchasing Arrangements - The PMOH is the sole purchaser of health services, relying on passive purchasing modalities, which constrains the ability to improve service quality and efficiency [35][36]. - Outside medical referrals (OMR) are a significant fiscal burden, with high costs and inefficiencies in purchasing arrangements [35][36]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests a four-step plan to address the challenges in the Palestinian health financing system, focusing on improving purchasing arrangements, expanding coverage, and enhancing governance [37].

Policy Indicators Briefs No. 37 From Local Practice to National Reform: A Roadmap for Closing Regional Gaps in the European Union Business Environment Tommaso Rooms he eciency and quality of the business regulatory environment can vary substantially across dierent locations within a country. In the context of the European Union (EU), such local disparities may hinder regional economic convergence, one of the long-standing pillars of the European integration process. is Brief highlights how identifying and p ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Uganda's economic growth remained robust in FY25, with real GDP growth accelerating to 6.3 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and a recovery in household consumption [29][30] - The external position improved, with a narrowing current account deficit from 7.9 percent of GDP in FY24 to 6.4 percent in FY25, supported by rising export receipts, particularly from coffee and gold [30][31] - Fiscal pressures increased, with the overall fiscal deficit widening to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY25, primarily due to a 23 percent rise in government spending [31][34] - The medium-term outlook is positive, with growth expected to remain broad-based and accelerate as oil production commences, projected to start in FY27 [33][34] - Agro-industrialization is central to Uganda's development strategy, offering significant potential for job creation and economic transformation [36][37] Summary by Sections Part 1: State of the Ugandan Economy - Recent Economic Developments - Uganda's economy experienced broad-based growth in FY25, with total consumption rising by 10.3 percent and a significant increase in government consumption [29][53] - Agricultural value-added grew by 6.6 percent, contributing 24 percent to the GDP increase, supported by favorable rainfall conditions [55] - The external position strengthened, with export receipts surging and foreign exchange reserves rising to cover three months of imports [30][31] - Economic Outlook, Risks and Development Priorities - Growth is expected to remain robust in FY26 and FY27, with fiscal and external deficits projected to improve gradually as oil revenues begin to accrue [33][34] - Risks to the outlook include potential fiscal slippages, delays in oil sector development, and climate shocks affecting agricultural productivity [34] Part 2: Cultivating Prosperity Through Agro-Industrialization - Current Context for Cultivating Future Prosperity - Uganda has significant untapped agro-industrialization potential due to its abundant natural resources and favorable climate [37] - However, agricultural productivity remains low, with challenges such as weak foundations in primary production and limited access to finance and infrastructure [38] - Recommendations for Agro-Industrial Transformation - Addressing challenges requires coordinated investments and reforms to strengthen agricultural foundations, improve infrastructure, and mobilize private sector investments [39][41] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic partnerships and sustained political commitment to achieve agro-industrialization goals [41]