Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual economic growth in Thailand, supported by strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [1][2]. Core Insights - Economic activity in November showed gradual expansion, driven by solid goods exports and improving tourism, with private consumption also seeing a slight uptick due to fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production contracted by 3.6 percent, primarily due to a significant decline in the automotive sector, which faced challenges from tighter credit and price competition in electric vehicles [2][3]. - Goods exports grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, although this was a decrease from the previous month's 14.2 percent growth, with strong performance in electronics and agricultural exports [3]. - Tourism remained a crucial growth driver, with a 4.3 percent increase in tourist arrivals in December, reaching 86 percent of pre-pandemic levels [4][14]. - Inflation rose slightly to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining below the central bank's target, driven by core inflation and energy prices [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 2.25 percent, anticipating continued economic expansion despite external challenges [16][27]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - November economic data indicates gradual growth, with strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production saw a notable contraction of 3.6 percent, the deepest decline in eight months, largely due to the automotive sector [2]. Exports and Tourism - Goods exports expanded by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, with notable growth in electronics and agricultural exports, while automotive exports declined [3]. - Tourist arrivals increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year in December, contributing significantly to economic growth [4][14]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Headline inflation rose to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining the lowest among ASEAN countries [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand held the policy rate steady at 2.25 percent, projecting continued economic growth despite external pressures [16][27]. Government Initiatives - The Thai government introduced a debt relief initiative aimed at alleviating household debt pressures, targeting vulnerable groups with various support measures [17]. - Plans for future economic relief and structural reforms were outlined, focusing on community empowerment and sustainable development [26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 2.1 percent month-on-month in December 2024, indicating a ramp-up in production to meet year-end consumer demand, although the PMI fell to 49.8, suggesting contraction in manufacturing sales prospects [7][8] - Exports grew by 12.8 percent year-on-year in December, driven by computers, electric products, and textiles, while imports increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year, leading to a trade balance of US$ 524 million [12][14] - Retail sales rose by 1.2 percent month-on-month and 9.3 percent year-on-year in December, supported by increased sales of goods and services, with international visitors increasing by 27.4 percent year-on-year [10][11] - FDI commitments surged to US$ 6.8 billion in December, with disbursement reaching US$ 25.4 billion, a 9.4 percent increase from the previous year, indicating strong interest in the manufacturing sector [14] - CPI inflation slightly increased to 2.9 percent in December, driven by higher costs of building materials, while credit growth reached 15.1 percent year-on-year, aligning with the SBV's target [17][19] - Revenue collection for 2024 was 16.2 percent higher than in 2023, while public investment disbursement was estimated at 77.5 percent of the approved budget allocation, below the previous year's rate [23] Summary by Sections Recent Economic Developments - Industrial production increased by 2.1 percent month-on-month in December, with key export products seeing growth, although the PMI indicated a slowdown in new orders [8] - Retail sales improved by 1.2 percent month-on-month and 9.3 percent year-on-year, with a notable recovery in foreign tourism [10] - Exports and imports increased by 4.1 percent and 6.1 percent month-on-month respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth in both categories [12] Foreign Direct Investment - FDI commitments rose to US$ 6.8 billion in December, with disbursement increasing to US$ 25.4 billion, reflecting a strong manufacturing sector [14] Inflation and Credit Growth - CPI inflation rose to 2.9 percent in December, while credit growth reached 15.1 percent year-on-year, meeting the SBV's target [17][19] Government Revenue and Expenditure - Revenue collection was 16.2 percent higher than in 2023, while public investment disbursement faced challenges, estimated at 77.5 percent of the approved budget [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report outlines a harmonized method for defining urban and rural areas, facilitating international statistical comparisons [12][19][29] - It emphasizes the importance of reliable and comparable data for effective policy-making and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [43][44][67] - The methodology developed by six international organizations aims to classify territories on a continuum from urban to rural, enhancing the understanding of socio-economic conditions [14][19][30] Summary by Sections Introduction - The manual responds to a UN request for a technical report on defining urban and rural areas for international comparisons [12][34] - It highlights the need for a standardized methodology to improve the comparability of urban and rural statistics globally [28][29] Legal and Strategic Framework - Understanding socio-economic conditions in urban and rural areas is crucial for effective policy development [42] - The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development emphasizes the role of cities and rural areas in achieving global goals [43][44] Rationale and Benefits of the Method - Different countries use varying criteria for defining urban and rural areas, necessitating a globally applicable definition for meaningful international comparisons [65][66] - The proposed method aims to create a universal mapping of urban and rural areas, providing reliable data for policy formulation and monitoring progress towards SDGs [67]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of off-grid electricity provision into national electrification strategies is increasingly common in low-income countries, with a focus on decentralized markets for electricity, particularly through pay-as-you-go (PAYGo) solar home systems [6][11][19] - A significant subsidy implemented by the Togolese government in 2019 reduced usage costs for solar home systems by 17.8% to 41.7%, leading to a dramatic increase in adoption rates, especially for smaller systems [15][16][49] - The study highlights the importance of usage prices in the electrification decisions of low-income households, indicating that high intensive margin prices limit the adoption of solar home systems [6][16][22] Summary by Sections Introduction - Extending the electrical grid to rural areas is often fiscally unsustainable in low-income countries, prompting a shift towards decentralized electricity provision, particularly solar energy [11][12] Background and Context - In 2017, only 35% of Togo's population had access to electricity, with a stark contrast between urban (74%) and rural (5%) households [25] - The CIZO initiative aimed to increase rural electrification rates to 40% by 2022, targeting the electrification of 300,000 households [26][62] Empirical Strategy - The report utilizes administrative data from a major solar company in Togo to measure the impact of the subsidy on the adoption of solar home systems, employing event studies and two-way fixed effects specifications [39][49] Results - The subsidy led to an increase in overall adoption by approximately 122%, with small systems seeing a 240% increase and large systems a 66% increase in adoption rates [49][50] - The findings suggest that low adoption rates of solar home systems are primarily due to low benefits at market prices rather than credit constraints [16][22] Theoretical Framework - A theoretical model is developed to understand the conditions under which the effects of subsidies in Togo may generalize to other contexts, emphasizing the unique cost structures of decentralized solar electricity [17][73] Conclusion - The report concludes that while the subsidy significantly increased the adoption of solar home systems in Togo, the effects may not be replicable in other decentralized energy markets due to varying demand fundamentals and cost structures [91][92][93]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Uttar Pradesh, but it emphasizes the potential for economic gains through improved agricultural practices and water management [6]. Core Insights - The UP Accelerator PRAGATI initiative aims to transform agricultural development in Uttar Pradesh by enhancing water use efficiency, increasing agricultural productivity, and promoting climate-resilient practices [5][6]. - The initiative targets to support 1 million farmers in improving their incomes and adopting sustainable agriculture and water management practices [6]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Challenges - Key challenges impacting agricultural productivity and farmer incomes in Uttar Pradesh include declining groundwater levels, fragmented land holdings, low technology adoption rates, information asymmetry in value chains, limited crop diversification, and inadequate access to inputs and finance [3]. Program Components - **Component 1**: Enhance water use efficiency by increasing the net irrigated area under micro-irrigation and expanding climate-smart rice-wheat systems [7]. - **Component 2**: Increase agricultural productivity through improved access to farm machinery via custom hiring centers and digital platforms, enhancing the adoption of water-saving practices [8]. - **Component 3**: Sequester carbon and reduce emissions by supporting climate-positive practices that decarbonize agricultural value chains [9]. Governance and Implementation - The UP Accelerator PRAGATI is implemented through the UP Diversified Agriculture Support Project, with a dedicated Project Management Unit established to support program implementation [10]. - The initiative provides a one-stop shop for service delivery, opportunities for private sector engagement, and advisory services to strengthen agricultural value chains [11].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in human capital to create jobs and foster entrepreneurship, particularly in developing countries [7][8][12]. Core Insights - Human capital, defined as knowledge, skills, and good health, is crucial for job creation and economic prosperity, with two-thirds of the income gap between developed and developing countries attributed to disparities in human capital [12]. - The report highlights that investments in human capital can connect people to jobs and stimulate entrepreneurship, which in turn drives economic growth [12][13]. - The global workforce is increasingly concentrated in developing countries, with a projected increase of one billion people in the working-age population by 2050, necessitating significant job creation efforts [14][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Human capital is essential for job creation and economic growth, with disparities in human capital contributing significantly to income gaps between countries [12]. - Investments in education and health are foundational for developing productive workers and entrepreneurs [12][13]. The Jobs Challenge: One Billion Good Jobs - The working-age population in developing countries is expected to grow by one billion by 2050, requiring substantial job creation, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, which needs 1.5 million new jobs per month [14][16]. - The Human Capital Index in developing countries averages 0.49, indicating that individuals are less than half as productive as they could be with full health and education [14]. Connecting People to Good Jobs - Reducing barriers to employment and enhancing access to training and job placement programs can significantly improve job opportunities, especially for women and youth [19][20]. - Programs like "Jóvenes" in Latin America have successfully combined skills training and job search assistance, leading to improved employment outcomes for young people [20][21]. Equipping Entrepreneurs to Create Good Jobs and Innovate - Human capital is a key driver of entrepreneurship, with successful interventions including tailored training programs and financial support for aspiring entrepreneurs [26][27]. - Micro-entrepreneurship programs have shown positive impacts on economic and social outcomes, with a significant share of programs reporting benefits in women's empowerment and income diversification [30][31]. Human Capital and Job Creation - The report underscores the need for holistic support systems that integrate financial assistance, skills training, and market access to empower disadvantaged groups and foster entrepreneurship [34][35]. - Collaborative partnerships between universities and the private sector can enhance innovation and job creation through research and development initiatives [34].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in water security as a strategic business interest for companies, highlighting the potential for significant returns through mitigating water risks [2][4]. Core Insights - Water poses substantial risks to global corporations, including operational, supply chain, market, reputational, and regulatory risks, making investment in water security essential for sustainable business practices [2]. - The 2030 Water Resources Group (WRG) facilitates collaboration between businesses and governments to address water security challenges, aiming to create a more water-secure world [5][10]. - Over 300 companies are engaged with WRG, indicating a strong interest in public-private partnerships to tackle water-related issues [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Companies are exposed to water risks valued at $225 billion, with 69% of listed equities affected, suggesting a significant potential for business transformation through water investments [4]. - WRG provides a platform for corporates to engage with government leaders to address policy bottlenecks and leverage private sector innovation [6]. Achievements and Impact - WRG has mobilized $1.6 billion and saved 1 billion cubic meters of water through various initiatives, demonstrating the effectiveness of collaborative efforts [11]. - Specific projects include supporting sustainable rice production in India, aiming to reach 1 million small farmers and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions [11]. - In Gauteng, South Africa, WRG has established a partnership to reduce water demand by 10% and improve water security in a region critical to the national economy [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Nitrogen fertilizer is crucial for enhancing agricultural yields, but its subsidized use often leads to inefficiencies, resulting in negative economic and environmental impacts [3][10] - Over 50% of global agricultural production occurs in regions with high nitrogen subsidies, where additional fertilizer application yields negative marginal benefits [3][10] - Up to 17% of nitrogen pollution in water is attributed to inefficient fertilizer subsidies, contributing to environmental issues like hypoxic zones and harmful algal blooms [3][10] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the transformative impact of nitrogen on global agriculture, significantly increasing yields and supporting billions of lives since the 20th century [8][9] Subsidy Dynamics - Fertilizer subsidies are substantial in many countries, with India spending approximately $10 billion to $11 billion annually, primarily on nitrogen [10] - The rationale for these subsidies includes stimulating agricultural production and stabilizing food prices, but they often lead to market distortions and inefficiencies [11][12] Agricultural Productivity - The report presents evidence that nitrogen fertilizer has heterogeneous effects on yields, with diminishing returns observed at higher application levels [39][40] - Regions like East Asia and South Asia are at the high end of nitrogen usage, experiencing diminishing returns, while Sub-Saharan Africa shows low usage and potential food security risks [41][43] Water Quality - Increased nitrogen fertilizer use correlates with significant water quality deterioration, leading to harmful algal blooms and other environmental issues [50][51] - A 10% increase in nitrogen fertilizer use results in a 1.6% to 3.4% increase in nitrogen concentration in water, indicating a strong link between agricultural practices and water pollution [51][52] Impact of Subsidies on Pollution - Coupled producer support significantly impacts nitrogen pollution levels, with estimates suggesting that input support accounts for approximately 17% of nitrogen pollution over the past 30 years [57]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Rising sea levels and changes in freshwater flux are increasing riverine salinity in coastal Bangladesh, significantly impacting fish availability and health outcomes for local populations [3][70][76] - The study highlights the complex interplay between species-specific salinity tolerance and fishers' adaptive strategies, which can lead to varying catch responses to salinity changes [71][75] - The findings indicate that while poverty has decreased in Bangladesh, the health impacts of reduced fish availability during peak salinity months remain a significant concern, particularly for child health [64][75] Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate change is causing unprecedented impacts globally, with rising sea levels being a key consequence, having increased by approximately 0.15 to 0.25 meters since 1900 [11] - Coastal regions are experiencing salinization, which affects local ecosystems and livelihoods, particularly in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh [12][13] Data - Salinity data were collected from five monitoring stations in the southwest coastal region, showing significant fluctuations in salinity levels throughout the year [20][23] - A total of 29 fish species were surveyed, with varying salinity tolerances and market prices, to assess the impact of salinity changes on fish catch and prices [25][28] Measuring Salinity Response - The study employs econometric models to measure the response of fish catch quantities to changes in salinity, revealing both negative and positive responses among different species [39][52] - The analysis shows that increasing salinity can lead to a decline in total fish catch, with low-price species being particularly affected [56] Econometric Measurement of Fish Price Response - The report finds that while fish catch declines significantly with increasing salinity, the price response is modest, particularly for high-price fish, suggesting a tendency for wholesalers to stabilize prices despite reduced supply [60][72] Potential Health Impacts - The decline in fish availability during peak salinity months poses serious health risks, particularly for children, as fish protein is crucial for nutrition [64][69] - Data from demographic surveys indicate higher morbidity and mortality rates for children born during peak salinity months, highlighting the ongoing health challenges despite poverty reduction efforts [66][69] Summary and Conclusions - The research underscores the significant consequences of salinity changes on fish protein availability and child health in coastal Bangladesh, suggesting that traditional salinity tolerance parameters may not accurately predict actual fish catch responses [75][76]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Carbon Monitor Cities 2.0 project aims to provide near-real-time monitoring of urban greenhouse gas emissions without local data collection, enhancing understanding of urban carbon emissions and informing climate change mitigation policies [7][8][56] - The pilot was conducted in 11 cities across Egypt, South Africa, and Türkiye, demonstrating the feasibility of scaling this approach in low- and middle-income countries [8][14] - The system utilizes satellite data and advanced methodologies to estimate emissions from key sectors including energy, transportation, and industry, specifically focusing on the cement industry [16][45] Summary by Sections Introduction - The Carbon Monitor Cities 2.0 initiative is designed to track urban emissions in near real-time, supported by the City Climate Finance Gap Fund [7] Pilot Objectives - The pilot aimed to generate real-time data on greenhouse gas emissions to inform local climate policies and potentially serve as a monitoring system for carbon finance [8][14] Methodology - The monitoring platform quantifies CO2 emissions across three sectors: energy, transportation, and industry, with a temporal resolution of ten days [16] - The methodology follows the BASIC+ approach of the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories [17] Emission Sources - The energy sector includes emissions from electricity generation and direct fossil fuel combustion in residential and industrial settings [18][31] - Transportation emissions are derived from road transport and aviation, utilizing traffic data and flight information [41][43] - The industry sector focuses on emissions from the cement industry, monitored through satellite imagery [45] Data Visualization - An interactive online interface allows users to visualize emissions data at city, district, and pixel levels, facilitating comparison over time [53][54] Conclusions and Future Directions - The pilots confirmed the potential for real-time emissions estimation without local data collection, with future plans to scale the system and include additional data sets [56][58]