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越南区域投资:挑战与机遇(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:45
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or region [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Vietnam aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring gross capital investments to account for 32-35% of GDP, with government investment at 7.3% of GDP annually to support infrastructure development [14] - Public investment in Vietnam has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with chronic under-execution of investment budgets and significant delays in project implementation [16] - The central government's share of total government investment has decreased from 40% to 20% over the past seven years, leading to over-investment by provinces in low-value projects and stranded assets [16] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality lags behind regional peers, with road transport costs being the highest in the region, which could impact its attractiveness as an FDI destination [20][22] Public Investment Trends - Vietnam's infrastructure quality ranks 77th globally, behind countries like China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with expressway density being one of the lowest in the region [20][22] - To sustain economic growth, Vietnam needs to invest 7-7.3% of GDP in infrastructure annually, aligning with global experience where fast-growing countries invest at least 7% of GDP in public investment [25] - Public investment as a share of GDP has declined from 8% in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with public capital stock per capita and per worker below upper middle-income and high-income countries [28] Inefficiencies in PIM and IGF Systems - The PIM system in Vietnam suffers from allocative inefficiencies, with provinces over-investing in low-value projects like industrial parks and provincial ports, leading to environmental degradation and economic waste [38][39] - Vietnam has 47 seaports, but 95% of cargo goes through three central government-operated ports, indicating uneconomic investments by provinces [40] - Overinvestment in small airports has resulted in low passenger volumes, with only 6 out of 22 airports experiencing growth, while most are loss-making [46] Systemic Problems in Subnational PIM and IGF Systems - Vietnam's fiscal decentralization has led to a fragmented intergovernmental system, with subnational governments accounting for 60% of total government expenditures, significantly higher than the international average [65] - The State Budget Law and Public Investment Law lack mechanisms for vertical and horizontal coordination, leading to underinvestment in national and regional infrastructure [40][41] - The lack of effective incentive and enforcement mechanisms at the regional level has resulted in a race-to-the-bottom competition among provinces, leading to inefficient public investments [44][45] Recommendations and Next Steps - The report recommends rebalancing infrastructure investment from provincial to central levels, addressing legal loopholes, and establishing robust monitoring mechanisms for capital budget resources [17] - It suggests institutionalizing tools for vertical and horizontal coordination, such as co-financing arrangements and regional Public Investment Programs, to enhance regional investment efficiency [96] - The report also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive review of expenditure responsibilities and the alignment of MTIPs with national and regional spatial development masterplans [93]
开放金融的关键考虑因素(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:45
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Open finance frameworks have the potential to enhance customer empowerment, competition, data-driven innovation, and financial inclusion [15] - Open finance can expand the use and benefits of financial services for those who already have accounts by offering personalized savings, credit, insurance, or investment products [16] - Open finance should be designed to support responsible financial inclusion and benefit all parties involved, especially traditionally excluded and underserved segments [17] - Public authorities play a critical role in designing open finance frameworks and ensuring adequate safeguards [15] Key Elements of Open Finance Framework Organizing for Open Finance - Define clear policy objectives and how open finance will contribute to them, such as improving competition, innovation, customer empowerment, and financial inclusion [58] - Public authorities should lead the process and collaborate across different sectors to ensure the framework meets policy objectives [63] - Establish effective, transparent, and inclusive governance arrangements to support the ecosystem's operations and ensure representation of all stakeholders [69] Regulating Open Finance - Implement risk-based and proportionate regulation to determine rules for customer-permissioned data access, ensuring all participants are subject to regulation [75] - Oversight and supervision are essential to monitor the ecosystem and ensure compliance with laws and regulations [81] - A robust consumer protection and data protection framework is necessary to build trust and foster adoption while minimizing potential harm [85] Operational Elements - Facilitate consumer awareness and understanding of open finance opportunities and risks to support adoption and financial inclusion [97] - Enable broad participation of financial services providers, especially large data holders, to ensure widespread customer adoption [100] - Encourage the use of standardized APIs and a common architecture to support interoperability, reduce costs, and ensure data security [107] - Monitor and influence pricing to support policy objectives, ensuring fair compensation and avoiding barriers to participation [112] Industry Impact and Opportunities - Open finance can improve personal and business financial management, reduce costs, and enhance financial planning and budgeting [33] - It can also improve access to credit for low-income customers and small businesses by leveraging transaction data for credit decisions [31] - Open finance has the potential to increase the breadth, depth, and utility of financial services, contributing to financial inclusion and growth of the financial sector [31][36] - The development of new services can make account ownership more attractive and open up new pathways to financial inclusion [38]
巴西关于重新评估和更新巴西金融消费者保护制度的范围说明(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:45
Industry Overview - Brazil's financial sector has seen significant advancements in financial inclusion, particularly with the rapid adoption of the PIX payment system, which now facilitates over 4 billion monthly transactions [8] - Despite these advancements, financial consumers in Brazil face significant risks, including fraud, scams, over-indebtedness, and mis-sold bundled insurance products, with vulnerable groups like women and young consumers disproportionately affected [8] - Over-indebtedness remains a critical issue, with 72.89 million adults in default as of the latest report, despite government initiatives like the Desenrola Program aimed at restructuring defaulted personal loans [8] Financial Sector Landscape - Brazil's financial sector is the largest in Latin America, with a GDP of USD 1.9 trillion in 2022, and has shown marked ability to control inflation and foster financial markets, competition, and inclusion [12] - The banking system is highly centralized, with the five largest banks accounting for 76.6% of total banking assets in 2021, and the payment infrastructure has grown significantly since the establishment of a national payments system in 2013 [16] - Domestic credit to the private sector in Brazil represents 71.8% of GDP (2022), with household loans amounting to BRL 3.6 billion in March 2024, reflecting a 10% increase from the prior 12 months [21] Consumer Credit Market - Brazil's consumer credit market is primarily composed of unsecured loans, especially credit cards and government-managed payroll loans, with credit cards being the main source of consumer defaults [21] - As of March 2024, 72.89 million consumers were in default, representing 44.3% of the adult population, with 50.4% being women, and the number of defaulted consumers is at an all-time high [21] - Payroll loans play a significant role in the Brazilian market, especially for consumers receiving periodic government payments, with INSS having more than 63 million active payroll loans totaling BRL 145 billion [26] Insurance and Payment Products - Brazil's insurance industry represents only 3.6% of the country's GDP, with private pension funds being the leading segment, followed by property coverage and life insurance [36] - Payment accounts have emerged as the fastest-growing account type, with 80 million new accounts opened with Payment Institutions (PIs) alone between 2018 and 2020, driven by the increasing preference for non-physical transactions and the adoption of PIX [36] - Capitalization bonds, although the smallest segment in terms of revenue, achieved an impressive 49.6% Return on Equity (ROE) in 2022, while property and life insurance combined showed a 21.9% ROE [36] Financial Consumer Protection (FCP) Framework - Brazil currently lacks a dedicated FCP law, with the primary legislation governing financial consumer protection being the general Consumer Protection Code (CDC) [47] - The CDC imposes various requirements that generally apply to all goods and services, but it focuses on addressing abusive and unfair practices rather than specifically targeting FCP concerns [47] - The National Monetary Council (CMN) has issued overarching regulations for financial institutions, addressing topics such as suitability, debt collection, consumer mobility, and account closure, but the regulatory landscape remains complex and fragmented [49] External Dispute Resolution (EDR) Mechanisms - Brazil provides a dispute resolution mechanism for consumers through Procons and SENACON's Consumidor.gov platform, which processed almost 1.5 million complaints in 2021, with the financial sector responding to 30% of these complaints [60] - BCB receives around 500,000 complaints per year through its RDR system, analyzing individual complaints and rating them as indicative of a breach of compliance, but it lacks formal determination powers for individual complaints [60] - SUSEP has historically been more focused on acting on individual complaints on an ad hoc basis, with its current approach reflected in Circular SUSEP 643/21, which notes that supervisory action may be undertaken on an individual level [63]
佛得角循环经济诊断,2024年9月(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:40
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights significant potential for circular economy interventions to foster economic growth and sustainability in Cabo Verde's tourism sector [19][20]. Core Insights - The analysis identifies substantial interest in waste reduction measures among tourism businesses, with over 70% penetration expected for certain actions within five years, despite barriers such as high costs and limited access to alternatives [17][19]. - Key market opportunities include in-vessel composting, large water dispensers, rooftop solar PV, and greywater recycling, which are essential for transitioning to a more resilient economy [19]. - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced financial aid, tax incentives, and policy adjustments to facilitate the adoption of sustainable technologies [19][20]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Data collection involved in-person interviews with 19 tourism businesses and an online survey, revealing a willingness to adopt sustainable practices despite financial and infrastructural challenges [17][18]. - The report highlights significant market opportunities for circularity and sustainability in Cabo Verde's tourism sector [19]. Circular Economy Gap Analysis - The analysis covers infrastructure systems related to materials, waste, energy, and water, identifying gaps and opportunities for improvement [38][39]. - Stakeholders expressed strong support for renewable energy initiatives, particularly solar PV systems, driven by high energy costs [21]. Circular Economy Initiative Shortlisting - Five high-priority circular economy initiatives were identified, including the establishment of an Integrated Waste Management Facility (IWMF) and a Reverse Logistics System for plastics [24][25]. - The IWMF aims for a 40% recycling rate and 25% organic waste recovery by 2035, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately USD 3.23 million [26]. Institutional and Regulatory Analysis - The report outlines the need for regulatory reforms to support circular economy practices, including the implementation of Law 22/X/2023, which bans certain single-use plastics [28][30]. - Priority regulatory initiatives focus on enhancing waste management services and integrating circular infrastructure into tourism development zones [30].
了解不丹青年在获得就业机会方面的挑战和制约因素(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:40
Executive Summary Public Disclosure Authorized Understanding the Challenges and Constraints of Bhutanese Youth in Accessing Employment Opportunities Tshering Choki and Alvin Etang1 November 30, 2023 Poverty and Equity Global Practice, South Asia Region 1 Tshering Choki is the Director of Athang Training Academy, Athang Private Limited, Thimphu, Bhutan. Alvin Etang is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank. The report was prepared as a background paper for the Bhutan P ...
全球海洋保护区的扩大和捕捞努力的重新分配(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:40
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a key focus of global conservation efforts, with the "30x30" initiative aiming to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 [3][8] - A predictive machine learning model was developed to forecast the impact of MPA expansions on global fishing effort, indicating that fishing effort would decrease inside MPAs and also outside them, leading to a global redistribution of fishing effort [3][19][24] - The magnitude of the predicted decrease in fishing effort is influenced by the placement of MPAs in relation to existing fishing activities [3][22] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the significance of MPAs in conservation and the expected increase in fully protected MPAs from less than 3% currently to a target of 30% by 2030 [8][9] - It highlights the potential economic impacts of MPAs on fishing efforts and biodiversity [9][10] Methodology - A global dataset of fishing effort was compiled using satellite-based monitoring data from 2016 to 2021, with a focus on predicting future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios [13][14] - The model incorporates 42 features, including environmental, geographic, and economic factors, to predict fishing effort [13][14] Results - The model predicts that total global fishing effort will be lower under MPA expansion scenarios compared to a business-as-usual scenario, with reductions ranging from -3% to -38% depending on the MPA network [19][22] - The overlap of proposed MPAs with current fishing activity is a critical factor in determining the extent of fishing effort reduction [22][26] - Fishing effort is expected to decrease both inside and outside MPAs, challenging the conventional wisdom of "fishing-the-line" [23][24] Discussion - The findings suggest that the placement of MPAs in areas with high fishing activity will yield the most significant reductions in fishing effort [26][45] - The report emphasizes the need for careful consideration of fisher responses to MPA expansions to balance conservation goals with the livelihoods of fishing communities [45][46]
为您服务?:乌兹别克斯坦服务导向型增长的前景(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:40
Industry Overview - The services sector in Uzbekistan accounts for more than half of all jobs and has been central to structural transformation over the past three decades, with its share of total employment increasing from 37% to 50% between 1991 and 2022 [21] - The services sector's share of value-added rose from 35% to 44% over the same period, offsetting declines in agriculture and industry [21] - Labor productivity growth in the services sector between 2011 and 2021 exceeded that in both industry and agriculture, reversing previous trends [21] Services Sector Composition - The services sector is grouped into four categories: low-skilled consumer services, low-skilled enabling services, global innovator services, and social services [23] - Social services accounted for three-fourths of employment growth in the services sector between 2017–2022, driven by increased public spending [23] - Global innovator services (ICT, professional, and financial services) have the highest levels of labor productivity but account for only about 4% of total services employment [25] Trade and FDI - Growth of Uzbekistan's services exports has lagged behind its manufactures' exports, while FDI greenfield announcements to both sectors have been even [22] - FDI inflows to the services sector have increased over the past decade, with announced investments into services matching those in the manufacturing sector between 2020 and 2023 [73] Policy Recommendations - Uzbekistan can leverage the services sector for growth through progress along three areas: connectivity, contestability, and capabilities (3Cs) [27] - Connectivity improvements include investments in physical and digital infrastructure, while contestability focuses on reducing trade restrictions and increasing market competition [27][35] - Capabilities involve enhancing worker skills and management practices, with a focus on advanced technical education and vocational training [27][33] Economic Impact of Reforms - Reforms to reduce restrictions on services trade could increase real GDP by 9% with partial liberalization and by 17% with full liberalization [36] - The liberalization of services trade is expected to increase real incomes by 8% in a partial liberalization scenario and by 16% in a full liberalization scenario [36][37] WTO Accession - Uzbekistan's prospective accession to the WTO provides an important entry point for the liberalization of the services sector, with potential benefits including increased trade and investment [37][39] - The implementation of trade facilitation and foreign direct investment reforms could increase real GDP gains from approximately 10% to about 22% [39]
促进环境可持续投资的企业所得税激励措施:世界银行企业所得税鼓励措施数据库所涵盖的40个经济体的调查结果(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-22 02:40
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the prevalence of corporate income tax (CIT) incentives aimed at promoting environmentally sustainable investment across 40 economies [19][20] Core Findings - CIT incentives for polluting sectors are significantly more prevalent than those supporting environmental sustainability, with polluting incentives accounting for an average of 10% of total CIT incentives compared to 3% for green sector-oriented and 3% for green process-oriented incentives [23] - High-income economies offer a higher share of green incentives (averaging 9% of total CIT incentives) compared to developing economies (6%) [23] - Accelerated depreciation, tax holidays, and reduced tax rates account for over 85% of green incentives, with accelerated depreciation being the most common at 47% [106] Trends Across Economies - The total number of CIT incentives increased from 1,434 in 2009 to 2,265 in 2020, with green incentives remaining relatively stable while polluting incentives declined in recent years [78][75] - Approximately one-third of the 40 economies analyzed do not offer any green incentives, while six economies have green incentives comprising at least 10% of total CIT incentives [81] - Chile has the highest share of green incentives at 25% of total CIT incentives, while Iraq and Peru have the highest share of polluting incentives at 36% and 47%, respectively [81][84] Trends By Region - The East Asia and Pacific region and Latin America and Caribbean region display the highest share of green incentives, averaging about 8%, compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, which ranges between 2% and 4% [94] - Europe and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa show roughly flat trends in polluting incentives, while East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and Latin America and Caribbean show a decline from 2011 onward [97] Trends By Income Level - Developing economies have a higher prevalence of polluting incentives (averaging 10% of total CIT incentives) compared to high-income economies (5%) [105] - High-income economies show a slight increasing trend in green incentives over time, while developing economies remain relatively stagnant [99] Trends By Tax Instrument - Tax holidays for green process-oriented incentives are the most generous, offering an average of 18 years in 2009, decreasing to 11 years in 2020, while polluting incentives have the shortest durations, declining from 7 years in 2009 to 4 years in 2020 [113] - Profit-based incentives (e.g., tax holidays, reduced tax rates) and cost-based incentives (e.g., accelerated depreciation, tax credits) are roughly evenly split, with a slight trend toward increased use of profit-based incentives despite policy recommendations favoring cost-based instruments [119] Areas for Future Research - Future research should evaluate the impact of green tax incentives on environmentally sustainable investment, particularly in developing economies, and investigate the relationship between green tax incentives and other government policies [126][127] - There is a need to assess the revenue costs of different policies and instruments, as well as the cost-benefit trade-offs of using CIT incentives to promote the green agenda [130][131]
Regulatory Sandboxes for Digital Health
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-21 23:08
Industry Overview - Digital health technologies, including digital applications, data, and information systems, are transforming healthcare by improving patient experience, operational efficiency, and creating new business models [1] - Regulatory sandboxes are important tools for promoting innovation in highly regulated sectors like digital health, allowing innovators to test new products and services in controlled environments [4] - The use of regulatory sandboxes in digital health is growing globally, with benefits for innovators, patients, governments, and regulators [6] Benefits of Regulatory Sandboxes - Innovators gain access to funding, markets, and regulatory guidance, reducing risks and increasing confidence in their products [8] - Patients benefit from early access to innovative, regulated products at potentially lower costs, with increased transparency and trust [8] - Governments and regulators can better understand the risks and benefits of new technologies, improve regulations, and promote innovation [8] Key Characteristics of Regulatory Sandboxes - Regulatory sandboxes are time-bound, with specific focus areas and regulatory waivers within legal limits [10] - They aim to develop evidence on the effects of innovations and provide insights into future regulation [10] - The AAA model of regulation (Advisory, Adaptive, Anticipatory) is used to characterize different objectives of regulatory sandboxes [12] Global Implementation of Regulatory Sandboxes - The UK has been a pioneer in using regulatory sandboxes across multiple sectors, including healthcare [21] - Singapore ran a regulatory sandbox for telemedicine and mobile medicine from 2018 to 2021 [21] - Malaysia's National Technology and Innovation Sandbox has supported 26% of approved applications in the medical and healthcare sectors [21] - India's National Digital Health Mission Sandbox helps integrate innovations into the national digital health ecosystem [21] Steps to Create a Regulatory Sandbox - Define the leadership model, typically involving the Ministry of Health and other relevant ministries [27] - Identify the problems to be addressed and the relevant emerging technologies [30] - Conduct regulatory mapping to identify applicable laws, regulations, norms, and standards [31] - Identify entities involved in monitoring and evaluating the sandbox, including data protection agencies and health regulators [32] - Build capacity and provide training for all entities involved in the sandbox [38] - Establish working groups to coordinate the design, implementation, and monitoring of the sandbox [40] - Define a risk model to identify possible effects and establish contingency plans [41] - Set eligibility and selection criteria for innovators, focusing on novelty, development stage, and regulatory interest [42] - Design the sandbox with specific objectives, including duration, admission windows, and exit options [45] - Publish plans for public consultation before launching the sandbox [52] - Launch and implement the sandbox, allowing innovators to submit applications [53] - Monitor, evaluate, and learn from the sandbox, publishing exit and final reports [58] Key Success Factors and Challenges - Regulatory sandboxes require significant resources, ranging from $25,000 to $1 million [68] - A well-functioning sandbox needs to meet existing market demand and have a mature digital health market [70] - Challenges include predicting potential risks, resource intensity, cross-sectoral innovations, and limited evidence of effectiveness [77] Design Elements of Regulatory Sandboxes - Eligibility: Defines who can participate in the sandbox [47] - Governance: Defines the internal operating structure and roles [47] - Timing: Includes duration of admission windows and testing periods [47] - Test restrictions: Limits the scope, scale, and conduct of the sandbox test [47] - Exit options: Includes individual test outcomes and program-level KPIs [47]
Creating Markets in Somalia
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-21 23:08
Industry Overview - The Somali private sector accounts for an estimated 95% of total jobs created, with private businesses providing almost all products and services, including traditionally state-delivered services like energy, ICT connectivity, and water [19] - The manufacturing sector represents only 15% of established businesses, generating about 0.8% of total jobs, and is less productive compared to other sectors [19] - Livestock, fishery, and agricultural goods dominate the productive sector, accounting for 26% of employment and 73% of exports, but these sectors are underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate shocks [19][106] Private Sector Challenges - The private sector is concentrated in nontradable sectors, with 69% of rural employment and over 90% of urban employment in retail, petty trading, and other nontradable services [19] - A few large conglomerates dominate key sectors such as finance, ICT, transportation, tourism, energy, real estate, and commerce, leveraging their influence to distort and capture markets [20] - Most firms are small, informal, and necessity-driven, with SMEs accounting for only 6% of established businesses and 2.4% of total employment, leading to low productivity and job generation [21] Enabling Sectors - Access to reliable electricity is low and inequitable, with Somalia ranking in the upper 5% globally for power cost and 15% for power expenditure as a share of gross national income per household [28] - The financial sector has grown significantly, with total assets and customer deposits at commercial banks more than quadrupling between 2018 and 2023, but access to finance for MSMEs remains a key challenge [31][33] - Digital connectivity has improved, with mobile network services becoming more affordable, but broadband penetration and use of bandwidth remain low compared to regional peers [36] Recommendations - Establish legitimate, effective, and equitable formal institutional and regulatory frameworks to enable economic transformation and increase efficiency-seeking FDI [43] - Promote private participation in key enabling sectors such as energy, transport, and education, and improve public stewardship to address service delivery gaps [45] - Improve growth and productivity of selected value chains like livestock, crops, and fisheries to deliver short- to medium-term inclusive dividends and create jobs [45]