Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that firms in sectors more amenable to remote work experienced a smaller adverse impact from the COVID-19 pandemic in countries with better digital infrastructure [2][13] - The benefits of remote work during the pandemic were more pronounced for exporters in the manufacturing sector compared to non-exporters, indicating a premium associated with exporting [2][13] - The positive effects of remote work flexibility enabled by digitalization do not diminish over time [2][13] Summary by Sections Introduction - The pandemic-induced economic crisis highlighted the importance of digital technologies for firms to mitigate economic losses [6] Data and Descriptive Statistics - The study utilized data from 68,007 firm-level observations across 61 countries, with a significant portion being micro and small firms [20] Empirical Strategy - The analysis focused on the interaction between remote work amenability and digital infrastructure to assess firm resilience during the pandemic [25] Results - Firms in sectors with higher remote work feasibility showed more resilient sales performance in countries with better digital infrastructure, with a statistically significant coefficient of 0.979 for the change in sales [31] - Exporters in sectors amenable to remote work experienced a smaller average sales decline compared to non-exporters, with a notable difference of 6%-7% [33] - The report indicates that the gap in sales decline between different sectors is more pronounced in countries with lower internet usage [35] Robustness Checks - The findings remained consistent when alternative measures for remote work and internet penetration were applied, confirming the robustness of the results [36] Heterogeneous Effects - The impact of digital connectivity and remote work on firm resilience varied across sectors, with significant effects observed in the manufacturing sector for both exporters and non-exporters [47]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper identifies key challenges in health care and long-term care as populations age, particularly in developing countries where rapid demographic transitions are occurring [6][14] - A holistic strategy is needed to strengthen health care and long-term care systems, focusing on universal care coverage and shifting from a disease-centered to a person-centered approach [15][16] - The importance of promoting healthy lifestyles throughout the life course is emphasized, as early health choices significantly impact aging [15][16] Summary by Sections Overview - Population aging increases the likelihood of disease, disability, and loss of functional autonomy, putting pressure on health care and long-term care systems [13][19] - Developing countries face unique challenges due to rapid demographic transitions and resource constraints, necessitating proactive government interventions [20][19] Main Trends in Longevity - Global average life expectancy at birth rose from 47.0 years in 1950 to 72.6 years in 2019, with projections indicating it will reach 77.1 years by 2050 [23][24] - The share of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 9% in 2019 to 16% by 2050, with significant increases in middle-income countries [26][23] Aging, Health, and the Challenges for Health Care Systems - Population aging leads to a rise in chronic diseases and multimorbidity, complicating health care delivery [41] - Health care systems must adapt to ensure coverage, access, and affordability while shifting towards a person-centered, holistic approach [41][42] - The prevalence of chronic diseases is projected to increase significantly, with 83% of global deaths expected to be caused by chronic diseases by 2060 [43][42] Increasing Risk of Functional Dependency and Challenges for Long-Term Care Systems - There is a rising need for long-term care services due to increasing functional dependency among older adults [17][18] - Long-term care services should be accessible, affordable, and person-centered, promoting home care options [17][18] - Integration between social care and health care sectors is crucial for efficient service delivery [18] Final Remarks and Key Policy Considerations - The report calls for increased coordination between health and social care sectors and emphasizes the need for capacity building among human resources in these fields [18] - Addressing distributional issues related to aging, such as gender gaps and socioeconomic inequalities, is essential for effective policy responses [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The marriage penalty in South Asia significantly reduces women's labor force participation by 12 percentage points, while the marginal penalty of childbearing is relatively small, indicating that marriage itself imposes constraints on women's employment opportunities [3][15][61] - The findings suggest that social norms and opportunity costs play crucial roles in the marriage penalty, with educated women experiencing smaller penalties compared to those with lower education levels [19][63] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the persistent gender inequality in labor market outcomes, particularly focusing on the marriage penalty and its implications for women's labor force participation in South Asia [7][8] Data and Empirical Strategy - The analysis utilizes data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across four South Asian countries, employing a pseudo-panel approach to separate marriage and child penalties [23][24][27] Results - The marriage penalty is quantified, revealing that it accounts for 75% of the combined family formation penalty, with the largest effects observed in India [15][41] - Men, in contrast, experience a marriage premium, with an average increase in employment of 12.8 percentage points post-marriage [41][45] Determinants of the Marriage Penalty - The report explores various factors influencing the marriage penalty, including urban versus rural residence, education levels, and gender attitudes [46][50] - Higher education for women significantly mitigates the marriage penalty, while the education of husbands also plays a role in shaping household norms [54][63] Conclusion - The report concludes that the marriage penalty is a significant barrier to female labor force participation in South Asia, driven by both social norms and opportunity costs, and emphasizes the importance of promoting gender equality and education to alleviate these penalties [61][64]

Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Household and Firm Exposure to Heat and Floods in South Asia Patrick Behrer Jonah Rexer Siddharth Sharma Margaret Triyana South Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist October 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Abstract Climate change is increasing household exposure to extreme heat, floods and other natural disasters. This paper examines the differe ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - Financial deepening, defined as the increase in bank credit relative to GDP, generally leads to a relative increase in carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP across a sample of 125 economies from 1990 to 2019 [2][13][14] - A one-standard-deviation increase in credit-to-GDP results in an increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP by approximately 0.6 percentage points over a five-year horizon, indicating that financial deepening can diminish the decline in CO2 emissions [13][33] - The adverse effects of financial deepening on carbon emissions can be mitigated by stronger institutional environments, including robust environmental regulations and a more market-based financial system [14][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - The transition to a less carbon-intensive economy requires significant investments, with estimates suggesting that global investments in climate mitigation need to rise from $0.9 trillion in 2020 to $5 trillion annually by 2030 [6] - Financial institutions, particularly banks, play a crucial role in directing funds towards green technologies or traditional carbon-intensive investments [7] Data and Methodology - The study utilizes an unbalanced panel dataset of 125 advanced and emerging economies covering the years 1990 to 2019, focusing on CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP and financial deepening measured by credit-to-GDP [16][18] - The empirical methodology employs local projections to assess the impact of financial deepening on CO2 emissions, allowing for the examination of responses over a five-year horizon [26][27] Results - The findings indicate that financial deepening contributes to a persistent increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP, with the most significant effects observed in the first year following an increase in credit-to-GDP [33] - Conditional results reveal that countries with stronger environmental regulations and a higher rule of law index experience less increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP due to financial deepening [35][37] - The analysis shows that the impact of financial deepening varies based on the initial carbon intensity of production, with different institutional factors playing a role in mitigating emissions [41][42] Robustness Checks - Various robustness checks confirm the baseline findings, including the use of alternative measures of financial deepening and focusing on credit boom episodes, which show even more pronounced adverse effects on CO2 emissions [47][49][52]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Identifying Growth Accelerations Bram Gootjes Jakob de Haan Kersten Stamm Shu Yu Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Prospects Group October 2024 Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Abstract This paper introduces a new method to identify output growth accelerations that integrates elements of both the "criteria-based" and "break-testing" approaches, which are prevalent in ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The implementation of a carbon tax in the Dominican Republic is expected to impact aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) through resource allocation, with varying effects depending on existing market distortions among firms [4][9][10]. - A carbon tax is more effective when applied to fuels rather than electricity, leading to productivity gains for most sectors by reallocating resources from low-productivity to high-productivity firms [4][15]. - The study emphasizes the importance of considering existing input market distortions when evaluating the impact of environmental taxes [4][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The Dominican Republic aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 27% by 2030, and the introduction of a carbon tax is considered a potential regulatory intervention to incentivize firms to reduce fossil fuel consumption [8][9]. Theoretical Framework - The report develops a model to analyze how a carbon tax affects firms' energy input consumption and overall productivity, highlighting the heterogeneous impact based on firms' existing market distortions [12][24]. Empirical Analysis - Utilizing detailed firm-level data from 2009 to 2018, the analysis indicates that a carbon tax could generate approximately $920 million in revenue if set at $110 per ton of CO2, representing about 10% of total taxes collected in 2018 [13][32]. - The sectors most affected by the carbon tax are identified as transport, cement, and hospitality, which have significant carbon emissions footprints [13][37]. Results and Discussion - The findings suggest that the introduction of a carbon tax could shift the burden of market distortions from high productivity firms to low productivity ones, potentially increasing aggregate TFP for most sectors [4][15]. - The report concludes that the effectiveness of a carbon tax is contingent upon the existing distortions in energy consumption and the productivity levels of firms within the Dominican Republic [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The 2024 Economic Update for Niger highlights significant economic and poverty trends, focusing on the impact of political instability and the need for investment in education to foster inclusive growth [15][18]. Economic and Poverty Developments and Outlook - In 2023, Niger experienced a political crisis leading to sanctions that severely impacted economic growth, reducing GDP growth to 2.0 percent, down from a projected 6.9 percent [34][31]. - The sanctions included trade bans and financial restrictions, which resulted in a loss of approximately 7.5 percent of GDP in external financing [33][32]. - Despite these challenges, total agricultural production expanded, demonstrating some resilience in the economy [17]. - The extreme poverty rate remained unchanged at 48.4 percent, with food insecurity affecting 2.3 million people, or 8.9 percent of the population [17][18]. - The outlook for 2024 anticipates a recovery in GDP growth to 5.7 percent, driven by large-scale oil exports, although inflation is projected to rise to 8.5 percent due to various factors including border closures [18][17]. Investing in Education for Inclusive Growth - The report emphasizes the critical need for investment in education to improve human capital development, which is essential for sustainable economic growth [18][19]. - Key challenges in the education sector include inadequate infrastructure, insecurity leading to school closures, and low enrollment rates, particularly for girls [19][20]. - The government program to improve education quality is estimated to cost around 0.26 percent of GDP annually, but additional funding will be necessary to meet the growing demand for classrooms and qualified teachers [20][21]. - A comprehensive policy agenda is recommended to address these challenges, with potential financing options including improved spending efficiency and mobilizing external financing [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the energy sector Core Insights - The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) aims to support low- and middle-income countries in achieving universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy by 2030, while also accelerating the energy transition and ensuring resilience against climate change impacts [5][28][39] Summary by Sections 1. The Evolving Global Context - The pandemic has hindered progress towards poverty reduction and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 685 million people lacking electricity access in 2022 [15][18] - Achieving SDG 2030 targets requires an annual investment of $5.4 to $6.4 trillion, with an additional $2.4 trillion needed to address climate change and other global challenges [17][20] 2. Evolving World Bank Context - The World Bank is adopting a new approach to align its offerings and increase energy sector financing, aiming to triple energy lending by 2030 [22][23] 3. The Unique Role of ESMAP in the Global Energy Landscape - ESMAP has evolved from providing hands-on advice during the 1970s energy crisis to addressing modern challenges such as energy access, climate change, and gender mainstreaming [24][25] - ESMAP's achievements from FY2021-24 include mobilizing $19 billion in external financing and supporting the installation of 16.5 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity [27] 4. ESMAP Focus Areas - ESMAP's focus areas include energy access (electricity and clean cooking), energy transition, and foundations for decarbonized energy systems [39] - The report highlights the need for catalytic incentives and tailored solutions to achieve universal energy access, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected regions [41][52] 5. ESMAP's Updated Theory of Change - ESMAP's updated Theory of Change emphasizes supportive government policies, public and private investments, and data-driven decision-making to achieve higher-level results [30][34] 6. Financing the ESMAP Business Plan FY2025–30 - The proposed budget for the FY2025–30 Business Plan includes various budget scenarios to support ESMAP's objectives [6][11]

Industry Investment Rating - The report identifies a critical tax-to-GDP ratio threshold of around 12.5% for future economic growth acceleration, with a slightly higher threshold of 13% for inclusive growth [9] - Countries transitioning from low-income to middle-income status typically achieve an average tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% in the decade prior to the shift [10] Core Findings - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is crucial for countries transitioning from low- to middle-income status, with significant benefits observed when tax collection increases from 7% to 15% of GDP [10][11] - Increasing tax revenue from 7% to 15% of GDP is associated with an additional 10 percentage points of cumulative growth over the next ten years and a reduction in the prosperity gap by about half [11][35] Mechanisms of Tax Impact on Growth - Higher tax revenues lead to increased investment in health and education, enhancing productivity and reducing economic volatility [10][37] - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is associated with lower government spending volatility and reduced real GDP growth volatility, contributing to economic stability [49][50] Transitioning to Higher Income Status - Countries transitioning from low-income to lower-middle-income status achieve a critical tax-to-GDP ratio of 15%, reflecting a 3-4 percentage point increase over the decade before transitioning [56] - The average tax-to-GDP ratio increases to 23.4% and 25% when transitioning from lower-middle-income to upper-middle-income and from upper-middle-income to high-income groups, respectively [56]