Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The economic outlook for Afghanistan remains subdued with high downside risks due to persistent deflation, trade deficits, and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [6][7][12] - Bangladesh's real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25, driven by subdued investment and industrial growth [16][21] - Bhutan's economic growth is expected to rise to 7.2 percent in FY24/25, supported by new hydropower plants and tourism recovery [24][30] - India's economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, reflecting strong growth in manufacturing and construction [32][35] Summary by Sections Afghanistan - Economic growth of 2.7 percent in FY2023-24, recovering from a 27 percent contraction [6] - Key challenges include high poverty rates (48.3 percent), a growing trade deficit (13.5 percent of GDP), and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [7][12] - Projected GDP growth of 2.75 percent annually from 2024 to 2026, with poverty remaining above 40 percent [13][14] Bangladesh - Real GDP growth expected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25 due to subdued investment [16][21] - Extreme poverty projected to increase to 7.0 percent in FY25, affecting an additional 1.7 million people [22] - Current account deficit improved to US$6.5 billion (1.4 percent of GDP) in FY24 [18] Bhutan - Economic growth rose to 5.3 percent in FY23/24, projected to increase further due to hydropower and tourism [24][30] - Current account deficit expected to improve with increased exports from hydropower and tourism [24] - 19 percent of the population remains vulnerable to falling into poverty [25] India - Economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, driven by manufacturing and construction [32][35] - High rates of youth unemployment and low rates of paid employment for women remain concerns [33] - Inflation slowed to 5.4 percent in FY23/24, but food price inflation remains high and volatile [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Pacific Atoll countries [27]. Core Insights - The Pacific Atoll countries, including the Republic of Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Tuvalu, face severe existential threats from climate change, necessitating urgent action from both local governments and the global community [27][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant investments in climate adaptation, with estimated costs of US$3.7 billion for Kiribati, US$1.0 billion for Tuvalu, and US$5.0 billion for RMI to adapt to a 0.5-meter rise in sea level [29][31]. - The CCDR outlines five key messages to guide policy actions towards a resilient future, focusing on community engagement, human capital investment, land administration, ecosystem protection, and governance improvements [31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Climate Vulnerability - The Pacific Atoll countries are highly vulnerable due to their small size, low elevation, and economic circumstances, facing risks such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events [36][38]. - Historical climate trends indicate a warming of approximately 1°C since 1970, with significant variations in precipitation across the region [49][50]. Section 2: Climate Commitments and Capacities - The Pacific Atolls have demonstrated leadership in global climate discussions, advocating for the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases [27][36]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning international funding with national priorities to address financing gaps for climate adaptation [31]. Section 3: Adaptation Options - The CCDR provides near- and medium-term options for adaptation, including strengthening institutions, enhancing legal frameworks, and improving citizen engagement [28][31]. - Key adaptation strategies involve protecting freshwater resources, fisheries, and coral reefs to ensure food security and maintain island habitability [31]. Section 4: Financing Opportunities - The report stresses the need for increased concessional financing from international partners to support climate adaptation efforts [30][31]. - Enhanced revenue collection and fiscal reforms are necessary to manage the financial risks associated with climate change [29][31]. Section 5: Policy Options and Trade-offs - The CCDR concludes with priority policy options that recognize the need for continued efforts beyond the report's scope to achieve long-term climate resilience [31].

Public Disclosure Authorized Macro Poverty Outlook Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World Public Disclosure Authorized Annual Meetings 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MPO © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations ...

Economic Update - Economic growth in Maldives picked up in early 2024, with real GDP growing by 9.8% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 9.3% growth in the tourism sector [20] - Tourist arrivals increased by 10.5% year-on-year as of end-August 2024, with Chinese arrivals leading the market at 14.6% of total visitors [20] - Headline inflation declined to an average of 0.5% in H1 2024, but food inflation remained elevated at 6.7% year-on-year [21] - The fiscal deficit narrowed to MVR 677 million (0.6% of GDP) in Q1 2024, with revenue increasing by 9.1% year-on-year, driven by tourism-related tax collections [22] - Expenditure cuts led to a build-up of arrears, with delays in payments to contractors, fishermen, and private hospitals [23] - The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow to 16% of GDP in 2024, supported by robust growth in travel sector receipts [24] - Foreign exchange reserves declined to critically low levels, covering only 1 month of imports as of August 2024 [25] - Public debt rose to 115.7% of GDP in Q1 2024, with domestic debt increasing to 68.4% of GDP due to tighter global financial conditions [27] Outlook and Risks - Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.7% in 2024, supported by the completion of the new terminal at Velana International Airport [28] - Inflation is expected to rise significantly, reaching 7.8% in 2025, driven by the removal of blanket subsidies [29] - The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 6.1% of GDP by 2026, with public debt declining to 111.4% of GDP [30] - External debt servicing needs are expected to spike to $1.07 billion in 2026, including bullet payments for the $500 million Sukuk [30] - Downside risks include elevated external and fiscal vulnerabilities, limited buffers, and potential delays in fiscal reforms [31] Policy Priorities for Climate and Development - Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major climate concern, with projections suggesting a potential rise of 0.5 to 0.9 meters by 2100, which could damage up to 3.3% of total assets by 2050 [34] - Coral reefs are under threat, with almost all coral cover potentially lost if global temperatures exceed 2°C, impacting tourism and fisheries [35] - Severe climate-induced impacts are expected to escalate by 2050, with ocean heating potentially causing the collapse of coral reefs and fish stocks [36] - The tourism sector requires accelerated climate adaptation efforts, with over 90% of resorts grappling with beach erosion and infrastructure damage [37] - Fisheries revenue could decline by almost 100% by the end of the century under a high-emission scenario, necessitating alternative livelihood opportunities [38] - Financing requirements for climate adaptation to SLR and flooding alone range between $2 billion and $4 billion [40]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SASPP Policy Note Series POLICY NOTE 11 | SEPTEMBER 2024 2 SASPP Policy Note Series September 2024 1 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS The Sahel is a dynamic region where population mobility is central to people's livelihoods an ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Low-income countries (LICs) require significant resources to address development challenges, needing an additional annual investment equivalent to 8 percent of GDP through 2030 to meet critical goals [21][22] - The average government debt-to-GDP ratio in LICs rose to 72 percent in 2023, marking a significant increase and indicating widespread debt accumulation across these economies [23] - Fiscal deficits in LICs have expanded from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 2.4 percent in 2023, driven by rising debt and interest payments [23][24] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The pandemic and subsequent global shocks have exacerbated development challenges in LICs, with about 40 percent of the population living in extreme poverty as of 2024 [41][42] II. Evolution of Fiscal Positions in LICs - Government revenues in LICs averaged 18 percent of GDP from 2011 to 2019, significantly lower than other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) [47] - The average fiscal deficit in LICs is estimated at 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023, reflecting a deterioration in fiscal positions [42] III. Fiscal Vulnerability to Shocks - LICs are particularly vulnerable to global recessions and domestic conflicts, which can lead to significant fiscal imbalances and increased government debt [26][27] - The impact of global recessions on LICs includes an average deterioration of fiscal balances by 1.7 percentage points of GDP [26] IV. Fiscal Policy Options in LICs - Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and improving spending efficiency are critical for enhancing fiscal positions in LICs [36][37] - The report emphasizes the need for international support to help LICs stabilize their fiscal positions and improve policy management [39] V. Conclusion - The report highlights the urgent need for well-designed national policy interventions to improve fiscal positions in LICs, including better tax administration and enhanced public spending efficiency [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is nearing a resolution of inflation issues and macroeconomic disruptions caused by the pandemic, with monetary authorities managing challenges effectively [27][28] - Fiscal imbalances and high debt levels remain significant challenges, with a need for reforms in investment, infrastructure, education, and tax policy to stimulate growth [28][29] - The report emphasizes the potential of wealth taxes to generate fiscal space while promoting equity and growth, particularly in the context of global discussions on taxing the ultra-wealthy [29][38] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: The State of the LAC Region - The region is close to controlling inflation, with Brazil and Peru expected to meet their inflation targets in 2024 [30] - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.9% for 2024, with significant variation across countries [32] - The debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 62.8% in 2024, necessitating improved fiscal space through efficiency gains and increased tax revenues [33] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains below historical levels, indicating a need for structural reforms to attract investment [34] Chapter 2: Taxing Wealth for Equity and Growth - Wealth taxes are gaining attention as a means to address inequality and generate resources for public spending [39] - LAC countries collect only 2% of tax revenue from property taxes, despite 80% of wealth being held in real estate, indicating a significant opportunity for revenue generation [41] - The report highlights the challenges of property tax administration, including outdated valuations and reliance on presumptive taxes [42] - Taxing the ultra-wealthy is unlikely to significantly alleviate fiscal shortfalls in LAC due to the low number of billionaires relative to the population [45] - Reforming tax systems to focus on property taxes could enhance equity, promote growth, and create fiscal space, but requires investment in administrative capacity [46]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that South Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing region among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), with growth projected at 6.4% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025-26, suggesting a positive investment outlook [29][36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the untapped potential of increasing female labor force participation, which could raise per capita income by as much as 50% if women's employment rates were to match those of men [29][30]. - It highlights the need for greater openness to global trade and investment, which could enhance women's employment opportunities and spur firm growth, particularly in the context of shifting global supply chains [29][30]. - The report identifies significant risks, including extreme weather events and social unrest, which could undermine the generally promising economic outlook for the region [29][30]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Rising Tide, Hidden Rocks - South Asia's output growth is projected to exceed earlier expectations, driven by strong domestic demand, particularly in India [36]. - The region faces downside risks from extreme weather events, social unrest, and reform delays, which could impact fiscal and external positions [36]. - Increasing productivity growth and employment, especially among women, is crucial for long-term economic stability [36]. Spotlight 1: Heat and Floods in South Asia - Climate change is exposing South Asia to extreme weather, with poorer households and smaller firms being more vulnerable to heat and flooding [30]. - The report suggests that targeted social protection systems are needed to address the disparities caused by climate shocks [30]. Spotlight 2: Mind the Side Effects: Remittances and Economic Structure - High remittance inflows in South Asia can reduce poverty but may also lead to currency appreciation and competitiveness losses [30]. - Governments are encouraged to create a conducive environment for productivity growth while managing the impacts of remittances on the economy [30]. Chapter 2: Empower to Prosper: Women Working for Growth - Women's labor force participation in South Asia is significantly lower than the EMDE average, representing a costly misallocation of resources [30]. - Legal reforms and shifts in social norms are necessary to improve gender equality in the labor market [30]. - The report discusses the "marriage penalty," where women's employment rates drop after marriage, contrasting with a "marriage premium" for men [30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The World Bank Group's sanctions system is a critical component of its efforts to combat fraud and corruption, ensuring that funds are used as intended and reinforcing a strong message of deterrence while emphasizing prevention and integrity compliance programs [21][22] - In FY24, the Integrity Vice Presidency (INT) received 4,984 complaints, with 354 deemed actionable, and opened 56 new investigations, completing 61 investigations [19][20] - The Office of Suspension and Debarment (OSD) reviewed 14 cases and 13 settlements, temporarily suspending 11 firms and three individuals, and sanctioning 17 respondents [19][20] - The Sanctions Board published two fully-reasoned decisions resolving contested sanctions cases, demonstrating the system's commitment to due process [20] Summary by Sections Fiscal Year 2024 Summary Results - The report covers activities from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, detailing the operations of the sanctions system units [19] - INT substantiated misconduct allegations in three Bank Group staff cases and six corporate vendor cases [19][20] The Sanctions System - The sanctions system addresses allegations of fraud, corruption, collusion, coercion, and obstruction, ensuring accountability for misconduct related to Bank Group funds [21][23] - It operates in three stages: investigation, adjudication, and integrity compliance engagement [23] Investigation - INT opened 56 new investigations and completed 61, with 38 deemed substantiated [36][39] - The average turnaround time for completed staff cases was approximately 224 days, while corporate vendor cases took about 446 days [38] Adjudication - OSD serves as the first tier of the sanctions system, evaluating evidence and recommending sanctions based on the Bank's guidelines [67][70] - The Sanctions Board acts as the second tier, providing final, unbiased decisions on contested cases [29] Integrity Compliance - The Integrity Compliance Office (ICO) engaged with 91 sanctioned entities, helping them meet compliance conditions for release from sanctions [53] - Fourteen entities successfully met their conditions for release, demonstrating the effectiveness of the ICO's outreach [53] Prevention and Risk Management - INT identified 59 of the 181 investigated projects as high integrity risk, reflecting its proactive approach to mitigating fraud and corruption risks [60] - The office provided forensic audit support to 57 investigations, enhancing the effectiveness of its operations [59] Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics - INT leveraged AI technologies to improve its operations, including document translation services that significantly reduced costs and processing time [62] Outreach and Training - INT engaged with over 3,000 individuals through integrity-based training sessions, strengthening its collaborative efforts against corruption [64][65]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Reducing the impact of climate change on poor and vulnerable households is essential for hastening poverty reduction. Climate change disproportionately affects these groups, whose livelihoods depend on natural resources and lack access to savings, credit, and insurance [11][16]. - The document presents a framework for understanding the relationship between climate and poverty, emphasizing how climate change and climate policies affect household welfare [16][22]. - Policies that reduce hazards and vulnerability while providing non-climate benefits should be prioritized, with examples including climate-smart agricultural practices and investments in clean energy access [18][19]. Summary by Sections Background - The World Bank aims to end poverty on a livable planet, highlighting the interconnection between poverty and climate objectives. Progress on poverty reduction has stalled, and climate change poses significant threats to the livelihoods of poor and vulnerable populations [21][22]. The Welfare Impacts of Climate - The report utilizes an asset-based framework to analyze how climate outcomes affect household income and consumption. Poor households are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on natural resources and limited access to financial instruments [25][27]. - The hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework is employed to understand how climate change impacts welfare through various channels [32][33]. Measuring the Welfare Impacts of Climate Change - The report discusses the importance of damage or vulnerability functions in assessing the welfare impacts of climate change. These functions relate losses in welfare to climate conditions and are essential for understanding the broader implications of climate change on poverty [54][56].