6 January 2025 | 1:23AM EST Americas Consumer Cyclicals FAQs following our 2025 Outlook On Dec 10, 2024, we published our 2025 Consumer Outlook along with individual sub-sector outlook reports, wherein we argued that discretionary stocks should outperform defensive/consumable stocks in 2025. Our thesis was based on a still strong consumer outlook and a normalization of share of wallet between goods and services. Since then, we have fielded several investor questions on a wide range of topics as investors di ...

木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪委 ISSUE 132 | October 21, 2024 | 4:50 PM EDT 要和海外投行研报数据 eyes on the fast-approaching US election amid a close race between two candidates with vastly different worldwiews, what the election could portend for economic policy-and the macro and market implications-is Top of Mind. Kevin Hassett, GEA: Ghairman under former President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, current CEA Chairman, share their views on a range of economic policies on the table, from tariffs to taxes to (de)regulation and beyond, w ...

Industry Overview - The China Games & Entertainment offshore coverage is expected to report earnings starting from mid-November, with divergent performance anticipated across key players [1] - The report highlights the importance of ARPU strategies for music and long-form video streaming players, with Tencent Music and iQiyi focusing on Super VIP and family pack offerings respectively [1] - Advertising growth for Kuaishou and Bilibili is expected to outperform peers during the Singles' Day festival season [1] Company Performance and Outlook Bilibili - Bilibili is expected to achieve 27% YoY sales growth in 3Q24, driven by 88% YoY growth in game revenue and 27% YoY growth in advertising revenue [4] - The company is expected to post a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 208 million in 3Q24, with continued margin improvement anticipated in the coming quarters [4] - Key focus areas include the performance of the Sanguo NSLG game, advertising outlook during Singles' Day, and margin guidance for 4Q24 and 2025 [4] NetEase (NTES) - NetEase is expected to report a 6% YoY decline in game sales for 3Q24, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 7.8 billion, down 7% YoY [3] - The company's performance is impacted by a lack of new game contributions and an unfavorable revenue mix, with management updates on new game pipelines being a key focus [3] - Key upcoming events include the launch of Marvel Rivals and Where Wind Meets in late 2024 and early 2025 [3] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to achieve 11% YoY sales growth in 3Q24, with advertising revenue growing 19% YoY [4] - The company is expected to maintain mid-teen GMV growth in 3Q/4Q24, with a focus on advertising strength and margin expansion into 2025 [4] Tencent Music (TME) - Tencent Music is expected to report 20% YoY growth in music revenue for 3Q24, with net adds of 1.6 million and a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 2 billion, up 48% YoY [5] - The company's ARPU strategy, particularly the SuperVIP offering, is a key focus, with potential for margin expansion in the music business [6] iQiyi - iQiyi is expected to report a 10% YoY decline in sales for 3Q24, with subscription sales down 13% YoY [6] - The company's 4Q subscription revenue and margin outlook are expected to be conservative, with a focus on ARPU growth and content cost trends [6] Financial Estimates and Valuation - NetEase's 2024-26E revenue forecasts have been trimmed by 1.0%-2.3%, reflecting weaker-than-expected monetization of newly released titles [12] - Bilibili's 2024E revenue is expected to grow 20% YoY, with mobile games and advertising revenue contributing significantly to the growth [20] - Kuaishou's 2024E revenue is expected to grow 12% YoY, with online marketing spend revenue growing 21% YoY [21] - Tencent Music's 2024E revenue estimates have been fine-tuned by -0.3~-0.8%, with a focus on moderating net adds and ARPU expansion [23] - iQiyi's 2024-26E revenue estimates have been lowered by -1%~0%, reflecting weaker-than-expected advertising recovery and slower subscription growth [29] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Tencent Music maintains a dominant share in the domestic online music market, with a 73% subscription market share in 3Q24 [25] - iQiyi's market share in the long-form video (LFV) market improved slightly in 3Q24, reaching 32.9%, driven by the release of popular content [32] - The competitive landscape in the LFV market remains stable, with Tencent Video holding a 46% market share in 3Q24 [32] Key Events and Catalysts - Bilibili's Sanguo S4 season in November 2024 and Singles' Day commentary in late November are key events to watch [4] - NetEase's upcoming game launches, including Marvel Rivals and Where Wind Meets, are expected to drive incremental revenue in 2025 [12] - Tencent Music's focus on ARPU growth through SuperVIP offerings and promotional events will be a key driver of future performance [22]

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23 October 2024 | 7:03AM CST | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------| | | | China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Chartbook 2024 Week 42 - 54% NEV penetration; NEV/ICE dealer discount w ...

23 October 2024 | 7:11AM CST Innolight (300308.SZ): 3Q NP miss on FX loss & EML supply tightness; Demand strength intact with order growth outpacing revenue; Buy Innolight's 3Q net profit at Rmb1.39bn (+3% QoQ and +104% YoY) was 12% below GSe Rmb1.59bn. Drivers of the miss include: 1) FX loss of c.Rmb80mn; and 2) EML (laser components in transceivers) supply tightness led to slower shipment growth. On the earnings call and our follow-up call with the management, the company maintained a strong demand outloo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Tesla Inc (TSLA) with a 12-month price target of $250, representing a 17% upside from the current price of $213.65 [1][24] Core Views - Tesla is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its leadership in EVs, technical capabilities in AI, software, and hardware, and its ability to benefit from a full set of solutions including charging and storage [24] - Key debates include Tesla's ability to meet FSD performance and vehicle delivery growth targets for 2025, and the sustainability of margins [1][30] - The ramp in FSD is expected to take longer than Tesla's current targets, and auto fundamentals could remain volatile in the near-term with lower pricing/incentives as a headwind [24] Financial Performance - Tesla reported Q3 2024 revenue of $25.2 billion, 1% below the Street estimate, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.72, $0.13 above the Street estimate [1] - Automotive non-GAAP gross margin (including SBC and excluding regulatory credits) was 17.1%, well above Goldman Sachs' estimate of 14.6% [1] - Energy segment gross margin was over 30%, stronger than the ~25% forecast [1] - Tesla expects vehicle deliveries to grow 20-30% in 2025 [1][30] Segment Performance - Automotive revenue was $20.016 billion, up 1% QoQ and 2% YoY, with regulatory credit sales of $739 million [23] - Energy Generation and Storage revenue was $2.376 billion, down 21% QoQ but up 52% YoY, with a record gross margin of over 30% [23] - Service and Other revenue was $2.790 billion, up 7% QoQ and 29% YoY, achieving a record gross profit in Q3 [23] Outlook and Guidance - Tesla reiterated expectations for vehicle volume growth in 2024 and deliveries to increase by 20-30% in 2025 [1][30] - FSD performance is expected to exceed human capability in Q2 2025, with miles between critical interventions up 100X with V12.5 compared to the start of the year [1][28] - Energy storage deployments are expected to more than double YoY in 2024 [30] Valuation and Estimates - The 12-month price target of $250 is based on 65X applied to Q5-Q8E EPS including SBC [36] - 2024/2025/2026 EPS estimates including SBC were raised to $2.03/$3.00/$4.25 from $1.80/$2.95/$4.20, driven primarily by higher gross margins and regulatory credit revenue [35]

22 October 2024 | 5:03PM BST certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

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注公众号:永木纪要 24 October 2024 | 12:16AM HKT | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...