Europe Equity Research 14 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Metal Inventories in China China physical inventory trends during 3 weeks of stimulus: largest increase in weekly steel output of 2024, steel rebar demand surged +33% last week | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [1]. Core Insights - Demand outlook is improving due to property sales recovery during the holiday period, with increased demand for steel and cement [1]. - Production and sales of industrial goods are showing positive trends, with notable increases in daily crude steel output and passenger vehicle sales [1]. - Local government special bond issuance has reached Rmb3.6 trillion year-to-date, indicating strong infrastructure investment [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Demand Tracker - Property sales improved during the National Day Holiday, with a 77% year-on-year increase in weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities [1]. - Steel and cement demand is picking up, with apparent cement shipments in eastern China improving post-holiday [1]. Production and Sales - The national operating rate of alumina producers was 86.70%, up 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - Daily crude steel output at major producers was 2.01 million tons in late September, reflecting a 1.3% increase compared to mid-September [1]. Infrastructure and Investment - In the first nine months of 2024, China railway completed fixed asset investment of Rmb561.2 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year [1]. - Local government special bond issuance totaled Rmb128 billion in October, bringing the year-to-date figure to Rmb3.6 trillion, which is approximately 93% of the total quota [1]. Building Materials Activity - Cement prices in eastern China increased by Rmb30-100 per ton, and apparent consumption of long and flat steel products rose by 25.5% week-on-week [1]. - Glass inventory decreased by 18.3% week-on-week due to restocking at processing plants [1].

M Idea October 13, 2024 09:23 PM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

China Property More policy support from MOF/takeaways from expert call The MOF press conference on 12 October laid out three policies for the property sector. Although no concrete number/scale was given, the direction (i.e. allowing special LGB for purchasing idle land/unsold units and lowering tax rates) is mostly in line with our expectation. Theoretically, these moves, albeit not game changers per se, help optimize the supply/demand dynamics, but practically we see hurdles in execution. That said, with V ...

M Update Risky Business | Asia Pacific October 13, 2024 07:00 PM GMT Insurance Pricing Slowing In Sep-24: What Does It Mean? Our Sep-24 new business survey shows slowing premium growth vs peak levels in both Motor (+7%Y) and Home (+12%Y). We still see SUN and IAG's margins expanding in FY25E alongside double-digit insurance profit growth, but investors could start questioning insurers' margin momentum into FY26E. -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Home Premium Index Motor Premium Index Yo-Y change in ...

North America Equity Research 13 October 2024 J P M O R G A N | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M Update October 13, 2024 11:37 AM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is Overweight, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [4][20]. Core Viewpoints - Sunny Optical is positioned as the largest player in the vehicle lens market, which is anticipated to be a multi-year growth driver due to strong electric vehicle (EV) sales and increasing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) penetration [2][4]. - September vehicle lens shipments reached 9,314 million units, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.7% and a month-over-month increase of 10.4%. Aggregate shipments for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 79,798 million units, up 11.6% year-over-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [4] - Price Target: HK$72.00, with a 30% upside potential from the current price of HK$55.25 [4]. Financial Metrics - Market Capitalization: RMB 54,964 million [4]. - Revenue (Net): Expected to grow from RMB 31,681 million in FY23 to RMB 44,398 million by FY26 [4]. - EPS (Earnings Per Share): Projected to increase from RMB 0.99 in FY23 to RMB 3.04 in FY26 [4]. Shipment Data - Monthly vehicle lens shipments in September 2024 were 9,314 million units, with a year-over-year growth of 12.7% and a month-over-month growth of 10.4% [1][2]. - Total shipments for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 79,798 million units, marking an 11.6% increase year-over-year [1][2]. Industry Outlook - The vehicle lens segment is expected to benefit from the growing demand for EVs and ADAS, which require more cameras per vehicle [2][4].

Global Research 11 October 2024 J P M O R G A N EM Money Trail Records Smashed as China Optimism Lifts EM Boats EM Equities saw unprecedented inflows this week at +$9.8bn - the highest weekly amount in our tracking history since Oct 2000, from +$7.2bn last week. The subscriptions continue to be entirely driven by ETFs (+$10.1bn, the highest weekly inflow on record) while non-ETFs posted outflows of -$292mn. Among regional funds, the buying was concentrated in Asia ex-Japan at +$9.2bn, also the highest weekl ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Underweight" rating to Tesla Inc with a price target of $130.00 for December 2025 [4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a substantial risk of multiple compression for Tesla shares following a significant rally, driven by investor enthusiasm for the recent Robotaxi Day event, which did not meet expectations regarding vehicle sales, earnings, or cash flow [1][2]. - Despite a 68% increase in Tesla's share price since April 22, 2024, the outlook for vehicle sales and earnings has deteriorated, with 2024 vehicle sales estimates down 8% and EBIT down 13% [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that Tesla's valuation appears to be pricing in optimistic growth expectations that may not materialize, particularly in the context of expanding into lower-priced segments [9][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY 2023, Tesla's revenue is projected at $96.77 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $13.56 billion and an adjusted net income of $10.88 billion, resulting in a net margin of 11.2% [8]. - The adjusted EPS for FY 2024 is estimated at $2.25, with a decline in free cash flow expected to drop by 49% from $3.9 billion to $1.9 billion [2][5]. Valuation Methodology - The price target of $130.00 is based on a 50/50 blend of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and multiples-based analysis for 2026 estimates [10][14]. - The DCF analysis suggests a value per share of $115, while the multiples-based analysis indicates a value of $144 [31][19]. Market Expectations - The report notes that investor expectations were overly optimistic, particularly regarding the rollout of Tesla's robotaxi program, which is now seen as a longer-term prospect rather than an immediate opportunity [1][11]. - The anticipated launch of the Cybercab and Robovan has raised questions about the economic viability of selling these vehicles externally, which may not align with previous expectations of Tesla operating a dedicated robotaxi fleet [11][12].