公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 传统渠道仍承压，新业务取得进展 —— 2025 年中报业绩点评 2025 年 8 月 27 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1854.78 | 1576.56 | 1612.82 | 1695.07 | | 收入增长率% | -3.53 | -15.00 | 2.30 | 5.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 147.38 | 85.40 | 103.36 | 129.23 | | 利润增速% | -47.06 | -42.05 | 21.02 | 25.03 | | 毛利率 | 34.00 | 29.80 | 30.80 | 31.80 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.30 | | PE | 51.65 | 89.13 | 73.65 | 58.90 | | PB | 6.71 | 6.96 | 6.36 | 5.74 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 欢乐 ...

上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 ——25H1 业绩高增，畜禽动保主业业绩向好，宠物板块奠定长期增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 22.48 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 28.90/11.25 | | 市净率 | 2.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.33 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,530 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,800.35/12,295.07 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.82 | | 资产负债率% | 36.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 465/335 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 07-27 08-27 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the low-temperature product segment, which saw sales increase by over 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth [7] - The company is focusing on a "fresh strategy" to enhance its fresh milk business and has set a target for profit margin improvement as part of its five-year strategy launched in 2023 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 687 million, 839 million, and 974 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 16% [6] - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved to 30.02%, with the liquid milk and dairy products segment achieving a gross margin of 32.21% [7] - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [7]

中国石油（601857.SH）2025 年半年报点评 天然气量价齐升、成品油需求边际改善，利润稳健性较强 2025 年 08 月 27 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 8 月 26 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年， 公司实现营业收入 14501.0 亿元，同比下降 6.7%；实现归母净利润 839.9 亿元， 同比下降 5.4%；实现扣非归母净利润 841.2 亿元，同比下降 8.4%。 ➢ 25Q2 公司利润同比下滑幅度较小，主因天然气销售和炼油业务业绩良好。 25Q2，公司实现营业收入 6969.9 亿元，同比下降 6.1%，环比下降 7.5%；实现 归母净利润 371.9 亿元，同比下降 13.6%，环比下降 20.6%；实现扣非归母净利 润 375.5 亿元，同比下降 18.3%，环比下降 19.3%。25Q2，公司总经营利润为 518.5 亿元，同比下降 14.4%；其中，炼油/天然气销售业务实现经营利润 51.1/51.2 亿元，同比+44.7%/+14.0%，油气和新能源/化工/销售业务分别实现 经营利润 395.9/5.6/25.2 亿元，同比-19.0%/-72.0%/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a 12.28% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company after excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025, despite a 29.82% decline in net profit [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in the refining and chemical industry, driven by the company's steady progress on new projects and an improving industry landscape [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 148.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.602 billion yuan, down 29.82% year-on-year [5] - The company's non-recurring net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.92% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 77.91% [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.731 billion yuan, 3.958 billion yuan, and 6.051 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.17, 0.40, and 0.61 yuan [5] Revenue and Margin Analysis - The revenue from chemical refining products in H1 2025 was 60.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, while the revenue from petrochemical products was 52.406 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.42% [5] - The gross margin for chemical refining products was 12.08%, down 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for petrochemical products was 22.59%, up 4.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] Industry Outlook - The report highlights a potential improvement in the refining industry's supply-demand dynamics due to capacity adjustments and restructuring in the global petrochemical sector [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's recovery and its ongoing projects, including high-performance resins and advanced materials [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in plasma collection, with new products anticipated to drive revenue growth [5] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 1.44 billion, 1.67 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.8%, 15.5%, and 14.4% [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28, 24, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, and a net profit of 633 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.88% [6] - For Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 1.793 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.70%, and a net profit of 388 million yuan, down 5.13% year-on-year [6] - The company maintained a leading position in the industry with a plasma collection volume of approximately 1361 tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [6] Product and Market Insights - The company has a total of 107 plasma collection stations, with 85 currently operational [6] - Revenue from immunoglobulin products in the first half of 2025 was 1.43 billion yuan, up 6.56% year-on-year, while revenue from albumin was 1.35 billion yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year [6] - The fourth-generation chromatography immunoglobulin product has been launched, which is expected to significantly enhance profit margins [6] Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve notable results in acquiring new plasma collection stations due to the strength of its controlling shareholder, China National Pharmaceutical Group [6] - The ongoing clinical trials for various new products, including subcutaneous immunoglobulin and recombinant coagulation factors, are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company benefits from rising tungsten prices, which enhance profits, and the tool segment is expected to continue growing [4]. - The company has rich upstream mineral resources and is well-positioned to benefit from the increase in tungsten prices [4]. - The hard alloy demand is expected to grow steadily in the long term, with the tool segment showing promising growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115 million yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.05%, while net profit was 73 million yuan, down 14.71% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's net profit growth of 16.87% in H1 2025 was primarily driven by the increase in tungsten product prices and sales volume [1]. Production and Sales - In H1 2025, tungsten concentrate production was 1,849.93 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.24%, while tungsten powder sales increased by 43.68% to 2,657.83 tons [2]. - The sales volume of rods increased by 18.99% to 427.01 tons, driven by new customer development and increased demand from existing customers [2]. Price Trends - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin was 14.47%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The market price of tungsten concentrate rose by 11.56% quarter-on-quarter and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching 159,500 yuan per ton [3]. Investment Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 226 million yuan, 273 million yuan, and 316 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are expected to be 82, 68, and 58 times for the same years [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Guorui Technology (600562) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a 19% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, driven by strong military trade project deliveries [1] - The military radar business is expected to benefit from the acceleration in building new combat capabilities, with the military trade market showing positive trends [2] - The company is making progress in the low-altitude economy sector, with successful bids for projects that enhance its market position [2] Financial Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.721 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, up 1.15% [1] - The revenue from radar equipment and related systems reached 1.550 billion yuan, growing 16.57% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 42.46% [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 740 million, 940 million, and 1.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.6, 0.76, and 0.89 yuan [2][3] Business Segments - The radar equipment and related systems segment showed strong performance, while the smart rail transit and industrial software segments faced declines [1] - The smart rail transit business reported a revenue of 88 million yuan, down 30.59%, but with an improved gross margin of 23.60% [1] - The industrial software and intelligent manufacturing segment generated 83 million yuan, a decrease of 18.89%, with a gross margin of 37.93% [1] Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the military trade sector, with its subsidiary Guorui Defense achieving a revenue of 1.363 billion yuan, up 26.30% year-on-year [2] - The company has secured significant contracts in the low-altitude monitoring field, enhancing its competitive edge [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.4 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 9.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million CNY, a decrease of 4.6% [2]. - The company is focusing on smart logistics and embodied robotics, enhancing its product offerings and market position [2][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong market presence, achieving the highest market share in 34 overseas countries and regions [6]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 93.9 billion CNY, with a net profit of 8.0 billion CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 7.3 billion CNY [2]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 51.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a net profit of 4.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2]. - The financial projections for 2025 to 2027 indicate a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of 192.9 billion CNY, 216.7 billion CNY, and 242.7 billion CNY, respectively [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the forklift industry, benefiting from its complete supply chain and domestic and international channels [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships and investments in smart logistics, including collaborations with Huawei and other logistics firms [6]. - The company aims to leverage the lithium battery trend to enhance its competitive edge against international giants [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, expecting the company to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 966 million yuan, a decrease of 7.20% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 41.82% to 143 million yuan [2]. - The report highlights optimistic future prospects due to increased demand for pest control products, particularly in response to vector-borne diseases [8]. - The company is progressing well with its projects in Ningxia and Yongxing, with significant investments and construction nearing completion [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 535 million yuan, down 23.29% year-on-year but up 24.03% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3.243 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.3% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 368 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 38.6% compared to the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% for the company's earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2027, with EPS expected to reach 1.13 yuan by 2027 [8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 9.9 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2025 [4][8].