证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 25 年 月 日 圣农发展（002299.SZ） 全链领跑的白鸡龙头 看点一：行业利润趋薄，龙头优势尽显。伴随行业参与者的规模化和集中 度提升，白鸡行业利润趋薄，而公司却实现了高于行业的盈利水平。2018- 2024 年，公司在大部分年间实现高于行业的盈利水平，2024 年公司单羽 盈利高于行业 0.6 元，充分体现了龙头在成本与渠道上的优势和积淀。1） 成本：2024 年公司鸡肉毛成本约 8939 元/吨，同比下降 14%，完全成本 约 9275 元/吨，同比下降 14%。其中原料转化效率优化 0.15 左右，单吨 营业费用下降 9%，公司成本领先战略效果显著。2）渠道：公司与百胜中 国、麦当劳等知名客户建立了长期战略合作关系。近年来，公司前 5 大客 户占比稳定在 30%以上。由于大客户的合同采购锁价以及对优质分割部 位的需求，近 3 年公司白羽肉鸡售价高于行业平均水平约 400 元/吨左右。 3）扩张：依托成本和价格优势形成的高于行业的盈利能力，公司近年来 在行业低迷期下保证了充足的现金流，支撑公司在行业低迷期参与优质资 产收购， ...

北特科技（603009.SH）系列点评三 25Q1 盈利高增 丝杠项目加速落地 2025 年 04 月 25 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025Q1 营收 5.42 亿元，同比 +10.73%，环比-4.31%；归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比+40.31%，环比+117.00%； 扣非归母净利润 0.21 亿元，同比+40.75%，环比+40.75%。 ➢ 营收稳健增长 盈利能力强劲。1）收入端：2025Q1 营收 5.42 亿元，同比 +10.73%，环比-4.31%，同比增长主要得益于新项目量产爬坡及出口业务的增 长，其中底盘零部件业务实现稳步增长；2）利润端：2025Q1 归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比+40.31%，环比+117.00%；扣非归母净利润 0.21 亿元，同比 +40.75%，环比+305.68%。2025Q1 毛利率达 18.17%，同比+0.38 pct，环比 +3.06pct；归母净利率达 4.25%，同比+0.90pct，环比+2.38pct。公司盈利能 力显著提升，主要系公司规模效应逐步释放、内部降本增效成果显现；3）费用 端，2025Q1 销售/ ...

山西焦化（600740.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 投资收益下滑，主业盈利承压 2025 年 04 月 25 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 24 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，1） 2024 年营业收入 75.07 亿元，同比减少 14.2%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2.63 亿元，同比减少 79.37%。2）2025 年一季度营业收入 16.82 亿元，同比减 少 7.66%；归属于母公司所有者的净亏损 7025.91 万元，上年同期净利润 6582.48 万元，由盈转亏。 ➢ 24Q4 业绩环比大幅下滑。据年报，24Q4 公司实现归母净利润 1042 万元， 同比转盈，较 24Q3 的 6872 万元下降 84.83%。 ➢ 24 年公司焦、化主业均亏损。2024 年公司生产焦炭 282.91 万吨，同比下 降 2.73%；销售焦炭 281.98 万吨，同比下降 2.68%；销售均价 1828.03 元/吨， 同比下降 14.99%；吨焦炭成本为 2267.91 元/吨，同比下降 9.03%；焦炭业务 毛利率同比下降 8.12pct 至-24.06% ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 25 年 月 日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 25Q1 铝产品"量价齐升"增厚利润，全球铝行业龙头地位稳固 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 24 日披露 2025 年一季度业绩公告，实现营收 558 亿元，同比增长 14%，环比减少 12%，毛利率 16%；实现归母净利 35.4 亿元，同比增长 59%，环比增长 5%，净利率 10%。利润增加主要 系公司全方位极致降本增效及主要产品同比增产所致。 铝产品"量价齐升"增厚公司利润空间。1）量，25Q1 氧化铝产量 543 万 吨，同比+4%，环比+1%，销量 168 万吨，同比+12%，环比+6%；电 解铝产量 194 万吨，同比+9%，环比-3%，销量 190 万吨，同比+8%， 环比-5%；煤炭产量 322 万吨，同比+12%，环比-6%；外售电厂发电量 41 亿千瓦时，同比持平，环比-7%。2）价，据 SMM，25Q1 电解铝价格 为 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%；25Q1 氧化铝价格为 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to downstream inventory destocking and price reductions, with expectations for demand recovery and new product ramp-up in the future [1][7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year [7][10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 410 million, 526 million, and 637 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.2%, +28.3%, and +21.2% [7][10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.8%, down from 44.4% in 2023 [10] - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 19.1% in 2025 from 24.7% in 2024 [10] Business Segments - Revenue from cosmetic active ingredients and their raw materials is expected to be 1.9 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.1% year-on-year, while synthetic fragrance revenue is projected at 350 million yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year [8] - The domestic market shows a bright performance, with domestic revenue increasing by 22.87% year-on-year, while overseas revenue is expected to decline by 8.3% [8] Capacity and Expansion - The company has made progress in expanding its product lines, with new production lines for high-end personal care products and sunscreen series products under construction [9][10] - The capacity utilization rates for cosmetic active ingredients and synthetic fragrances are 54.98% and 89.22% respectively in 2024 [8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 17.3, 13.5, and 11.1 respectively [10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same years are expected to be 2.3, 2.1, and 1.9 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, with both production and sales of potash fertilizer continuing to grow. The company is also advancing its potash production capacity expansion and non-potash business [1][5] - The 2024 annual report indicated a revenue of 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 23.05% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to leverage tax incentives in Laos to reduce costs and is focused on completing its potash projects, aiming for a production capacity of nearly 900,000 tons per year [5] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to increase significantly from 3.548 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.55 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.6% [7][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 950 million yuan in 2024 to 1.822 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 91.7% [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.97 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.3 [7][10]

证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-25 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 6.72 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）66.38 | / 66.34 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）446 | / 446 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 8.13 / 6.51 | | 资产负债率(%) | 5.0% | | 市盈率 | 20.36 | | 第一大股东 | 海盈康(青岛)医疗科技 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 上海莱士(002252) 血制品业务稳健发展，盈利能力维持高水平 l 血制品业务稳健发展 公司自营血制品实现收入 44.3 亿元（+2.5%），其中白蛋白 14.9 亿元（+4.4%）、静丙 17.0 亿元（-5.9%）、其他血制品 12.3 亿元 （+14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 62.18 billion, 73.06 billion, and 82.14 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 144.11 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.74 billion, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in alumina prices is expected to support profit recovery for the company [8]. - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, contributing to increased sales volume. The domestic aluminum spot price was 20455 yuan/ton, up 7.22% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company reported a revenue of 544.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4412 million, with a net profit growth of 11.5% [12]. - The projected revenue for 2025E is 551.49 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The net profit is expected to rise to 6218 million, reflecting a significant growth of 40.9% [12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2024A to 17.3% in 2025E, indicating enhanced profitability [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 36.44 billion yuan, down 40.72% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.96 billion yuan, down 42.60% year-on-year [1]. - Despite the decline, the company reported a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 100%, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 11.13% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.59% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.93%. The net profit for the same period was 0.96 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 211.54% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.05% [2]. - The coal production in Q4 2024 reached 19.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 176.57%, while sales were 18.63 million tons, up 129.84% year-on-year [3]. Coal and Natural Gas Business - The company’s coal production for 2024 was 43.25 million tons, up 64.02% year-on-year, while coal sales were 47.23 million tons, up 52.39% year-on-year. The average coal price decreased by 22.55% to 367.94 yuan per ton [3]. - The natural gas segment faced challenges, with sales dropping to 4.09 billion cubic meters, down 52.95% year-on-year, and a gross profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 39.68% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 3.02 billion yuan in 2025, 3.38 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.84 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to EPS of 0.46, 0.51, and 0.58 yuan per share respectively [6][7]. - The company plans to invest 16.48 billion yuan in a new coal utilization project, which is expected to generate an average annual after-tax profit of 1.64 billion yuan once operational [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.759 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, primarily driven by rising prices of base metals, leading to increased product revenue. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 787 million yuan, up 28.70% year-on-year [3][6]. - The production and sales of gold and silver increased, with gold production rising by 8.05% year-on-year and sales up by 36.42%. However, zinc and lead production saw slight declines [4]. - The company benefits from high-grade mineral resources, particularly from the Shuikoushan lead-zinc mine, which is among the top in the country in terms of value [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.76%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 155.56% [3]. - The average prices for gold and silver in 2024 were 557 yuan per gram and 7219 yuan per kilogram, respectively, showing substantial increases compared to the previous year [4]. Production and Sales - Zinc and zinc alloy production was 642,500 tons, a decrease of 2.94% year-on-year, while sales increased by 0.77%. Lead and lead alloy production decreased by 3.79%, with sales down by 2.08% [4]. - The company’s gold production was 3.7 tons, with sales reaching 4.07 tons, marking a 36.42% increase in sales year-on-year [4]. Profitability - The company achieved a gross profit of 1.742 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.8%. Gold contributed 23.6% to the gross profit, while silver accounted for 25.3% [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.13 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.21 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an upward revision in gold and silver price predictions [6].