Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharma with a 12-month price target of HK$8.74, indicating an upside potential of 14.7% from the current price of HK$7.62 [13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that CSPC Pharma experienced a revenue decline of 22% in Q1, primarily due to a high base in Q1 2024, ongoing pressure from volume-based procurement (VBP), and a 12.5% price cut for NBP injection [1]. - Despite the revenue miss, earnings showed resilience, supported by out-licensing income and significant expense cuts, particularly in selling expenses [1]. - Management has revised its guidance for 2025, focusing on sequential improvement rather than positive sales growth, and plans to pursue three more business development (BD) deals with a potential total deal size exceeding US$5 billion [2][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Performance - CSPC Pharma's sales in Q1 declined by 22% year-on-year, with finished drug sales down 27% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings for Q1 were reported at Rmb1.5 billion, an 8% decrease year-on-year, but were bolstered by Rmb718 million from out-licensing [1]. - Core earnings, excluding BD income, are estimated to have declined by approximately 45% year-on-year [1]. Business Development and Licensing - The company is actively negotiating three potential BD deals, with one expected to close in June, focusing on SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) and other technology collaborations [2]. - In Q1, CSPC Pharma booked US$40 million from the AZ deal and US$60 million from the BeOne deal, with expectations of over Rmb1 billion in additional income from new deals throughout the year [2]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - SYS6010 is prioritized for clinical development, with ongoing phase 3 studies for NSCLC and plans for further trials in various solid tumors [3][7]. - The company is preparing for pivotal studies outside China and aims to apply for breakthrough designation for certain assets [7]. Shareholder Returns and Incentives - CSPC Pharma plans to utilize operational cash flow for R&D and higher dividends, with a share buyback target of up to HK$5 billion over the next 24 months [8]. - A share-based incentive program is set to cover 200-300 key staff, with additional coverage planned for the second half of 2025 [8]. Financial Projections - Earnings estimates have been revised down by 7.7% for 2025 due to lower-than-expected finished drug sales, but the price target has increased from HK$7.84 to HK$8.74 [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at Rmb30.1 billion, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso, with a 12-month price target of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-share, indicating an upside potential of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [14][17]. Core Insights - Management is confident in achieving revenue growth acceleration in 2025, targeting a year-over-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on low teens percentage growth in Miniso China and around 40% growth in overseas markets [1][8]. - Despite expected margin pressure in the short term, management anticipates a return to positive operating profit growth by the third quarter of 2025, with a narrowing of margin contraction [1][2]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming stores in China, with expectations of a return to net store count growth in the second half of 2025 [1][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, Miniso aims for revenue of Rmb20,554 million, with an operating profit (OP) target of Rmb3.6 billion to Rmb3.8 billion, compared to Rmb3.2 billion in the previous year [17]. - In 2Q25, management expects topline growth of 18%-21%, with specific growth rates of low teens for Miniso China and 25%-30% for overseas markets [8]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product offerings in the US, with IP-related products making up 60-70% of sales, and plans to increase local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [12][15]. - Miniso's store expansion strategy includes targeting 80-100 net new store openings in 2025, with a significant portion being DTC stores [10][11]. Operational Efficiency - Management noted that logistics costs have declined, and there is potential for cost savings through improved store productivity and geographical concentration of store openings [10][12]. - The average payback period for new stores is reported to be 15-18 months, with daily sales averaging nearly Rmb10,000, significantly above the breakeven point [13].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on CATL H-shares with a Buy rating and sets a target price of HK$425. The A-share target price is raised to Rmb391 from Rmb362 [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - CATL is transforming into a leader in new energy technology and solutions, well-positioned to benefit from long-term growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) battery markets [1][5]. - Despite a slowdown in global battery demand growth, the effective utilization ratio in the battery industry is expected to improve due to slower capacity expansion, with CATL's capacity utilization projected to exceed the industry average [2][10]. - The impact of US tariffs and geopolitical risks on CATL is expected to be limited due to its low exposure to the US market [3][18]. - Margins in the ESS battery segment are anticipated to rebound in the latter half of 2025 as sales to overseas markets increase [4][20]. Summary by Sections Addressing Investor Concerns - **Global Battery Demand Growth**: Expected to slow to 25% in 2025 and 26% in 2026, down from 40% in 2023 and 30% in 2024. The global battery effective utilization ratio is projected to rise to 58%/59% in 2025/26 from 57% in 2024 [2][10]. - **Impact of US Tariffs**: CATL's battery shipments to the US fell to 2-3% of total shipments in 1Q25, indicating limited exposure and impact from tariffs [3][18]. - **Unit GP and EBIT Pressure**: CATL's margins are expected to recover in 2-4Q25E with an increase in overseas sales, which typically have higher margins [4][20]. Company Description - CATL is the largest battery producer globally, specializing in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for EVs and ESS, with a sales volume of 381GWh for EVs and 93GWh for ESS in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and 35% respectively [41]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes CATL's strategic positioning in the new energy sector and its potential to capitalize on the growing demand for EVs and ESS, reinforcing its status as a top pick in the battery supply chain [5][29]. Valuation - The target price for CATL A-shares is set at Rmb391, based on a 16.6x EV/EBITDA for 2025, while the H-share target price of HK$425 implies a 28.2x P/E for 2025 and 22.4x for 2026 [5][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of $23.40, indicating an upside potential of 5.5% from the current price of $22.19 [1]. Core Insights - Miniso reported a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in 1Q25, slightly above guidance, but adjusted operating profit declined by 5% year-over-year, missing expectations due to higher contributions from lower-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and new store openings [1][2]. - Management remains optimistic about top-line growth for 2025, but has tempered expectations regarding margins due to the ongoing transition to a DTC model [1][2]. - The company aims for a positive same-store sales growth (SSSG) recovery, with management targeting double-digit growth in China and a 40% year-over-year increase in overseas markets [19][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - In 1Q25, total sales reached Rmb 4.4 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase, with overseas sales growing by 30% year-over-year [29]. - The adjusted net profit was Rmb 587 million, which was 6% lower than expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected operating profit [32][34]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted slightly downward, with total sales projected at Rmb 20.55 billion for 2025, reflecting a 20.9% growth [37]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is now estimated at Rmb 2.22 billion, a 14.7% decrease from previous estimates [37]. Operational Insights - The company closed 111 stores in Mainland China during 1Q25, which was below expectations, while opening 95 stores overseas [31]. - Management highlighted that the DTC model will continue to exert pressure on margins in the near term, but expects improvements in operational efficiency to mitigate this impact [19][20]. Market Strategy - Miniso's strategy includes a focus on increasing the number of larger format stores and enhancing same-store sales productivity, with plans to open fewer stores than previously targeted [25]. - The company is also investing in its IP strategy, which has shown positive market feedback, particularly in the toy category, which accounted for 30% of sales in 1Q25 [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with an "Overweight" (OW) rating and sets a price target of HK$250 for June 2026, which implies a PEG of 1.3x and a P/E of 32.6x for 2026 [1][4][9]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is positioned as a leader in China's rapidly growing IP merchandise market, boasting a portfolio of over 100 owned and licensed IPs, 521 retail stores, and 2,472 roboshops across more than 30 countries. The company is also leveraging major online platforms for sales [1][8]. - The report highlights two main reasons for favoring Pop Mart: its strong IP offerings, particularly the rising 'super IP' Labubu, and its ambitious global expansion plans, with overseas sales projected to grow at a 42% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, contributing 65% of total sales by 2027 [1][8]. - Forecasts indicate a sales CAGR of 44% and an earnings CAGR of 56% from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong IP, store openings, improved productivity, and margin expansion [1][8]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Strategy - Pop Mart leads the IP merchandise market in China, with significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in North America and Europe, where sales surged 480% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [5][8]. - The company aims to capitalize on its strong IP portfolio and global expansion strategy, with expectations of overseas sales growth outpacing domestic growth [5][8]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth from Rmb 13,038 million in FY24 to Rmb 39,335 million in FY27, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increasing from 38.5% to 43.9% over the same period [7][8]. - Adjusted EPS is expected to grow from 2.42 in FY24 to 9.13 in FY27, reflecting a strong upward trajectory in profitability [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of HK$250 is based on a PEG ratio of 1.3x, which is a 20% discount compared to similar companies in the market [9]. - The DCF-based fair value estimate ranges from HK$226 to HK$327, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [9]. Competitive Analysis - The report compares Pop Mart with established players like Sanrio, highlighting Pop Mart's rapid growth in brand recognition and market share, particularly with its IP Labubu, which is seen as a potential competitor to Hello Kitty [5][17][29]. - The analysis indicates that while Sanrio has a long-established presence, Pop Mart's innovative marketing and product strategies are driving significant consumer interest and engagement [5][29].

Investment Rating - The stock rating for JD Health International Inc. is Underweight [5] - The industry view is Attractive [5] Core Insights - JD Health International Inc. maintained its 2025 targets despite a strong performance in Q1 2025, aiming for mid-teens revenue growth and flat operating profit [3][8] - The company expects over 20% growth in drug sales, mid-teens growth in nutritional products, and high single-digit growth in medical devices for the full year 2025 [3] - The gross profit margin (GPM) is anticipated to improve due to supply chain management efficiencies and increased advertising income, particularly in nutritional products [3] - JD Health's strategic focus includes enhancing B2C drug sales, especially for originator drugs, which currently represent approximately 30% of total drug sales [4] - The company plans to increase offline investments through greenfield projects rather than large-scale mergers and acquisitions [4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, JD Health reported revenue of RMB 16.6 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.5%, which was 11% above consensus estimates [8] - The adjusted operating profit grew by 73% year-over-year to RMB 1.31 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 7.9%, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year [8] - Adjusted net profit rose by 47.7% year-over-year to RMB 1.77 billion, with an adjusted net margin of 10.6% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd is Overweight [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Giant Biogene (GB) has seen limited positive impact on its P&L from supportive policies and subsidies from online platforms, as some platforms refocus on leading brands over white labels [2] - GB has expanded its product offerings to Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, utilizing social media for branding and adjusting product sizes to match local purchasing power [3] - The Mi Xiu series targets premium customers with an average selling price (ASP) of Rmb500-800, with plans for further expansion into medical aesthetics and online channels [4] - The Collagen Stick 2.0 has received encouraging sales feedback and is a key product for upcoming promotions, with expectations for improved gross profit margins [9] - The company plans to use US$300 million from share issuance primarily for overseas expansion and potential mergers and acquisitions in cosmetics, medical aesthetics, and healthcare [9] Financial Metrics - The price target for Giant Biogene is set at HK$85.00, representing a 7% upside from the current price of HK$79.20 [6] - Projected revenue growth shows an increase from Rmb5,539 million in 2024 to Rmb10,523 million by 2027, with EBITDA expected to rise from Rmb2,502 million to Rmb4,507 million in the same period [6] - The estimated EPS is projected to grow from Rmb2.06 in 2024 to Rmb3.67 in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Equal-weight" rating to Laopu Gold [4] - The industry view is classified as "In-Line" [4] - The price target is set at HK$980.00, indicating a potential upside of 43% from the current price of HK$685.00 [4] Core Insights - The recent equity fund raising of HK$2.7 billion through primary share placement was unexpected, raising concerns among investors despite the necessity due to tight free cash flow [2][3][7] - The company plans to open 8 new stores in 2025, with a total capital expenditure exceeding Rmb400 million [2] - Management previously indicated no immediate capital pressure or fundraising plans, which adds to the surprise of the recent announcement [8] Financial Summary - The company reported an operating cash outflow of Rmb1.2 billion and a free cash flow of -Rmb1.3 billion in the second half of 2024, despite strong sales [2] - Projected earnings per share (EPS) are Rmb9.47 for FY 2024, increasing to Rmb38.62 by FY 2027 [4] - Revenue projections show a growth from Rmb8.5 billion in FY 2025 to Rmb34.8 billion in FY 2027 [4] - EBITDA is expected to rise from Rmb2.15 billion in FY 2025 to Rmb8.92 billion in FY 2027 [4] Market Context - The stock price is expected to react negatively and experience volatility in the near term due to the unexpected fundraising announcement [7] - Demand for gold remains strong, but emerging risks have been highlighted in recent reports [7] - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of Rmb6.35, totaling approximately Rmb1.07 billion [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Midea Group Co Ltd. with a price target of Rmb95.00, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the closing price of Rmb75.00 on May 8, 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - Midea aims for above-guidance sales growth in 2025, targeting a revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, compared to a mid-high single-digit guidance, while maintaining a stable net margin [6]. - The company is optimistic about overseas growth, expecting double-digit growth from its OBM and brand business, while domestic growth is anticipated to be in the mid-single digits due to demand pressure [6]. - Midea's management has noted a deterioration in overall consumption in China year-to-date and plans to focus on the low-end market while expanding in the high-end segment to protect its market share [6]. - The company is also adapting to U.S. tariffs by relocating parts of its supply chain to countries like Brazil and Egypt, aiming to meet U.S. demand from non-China production by June [6]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal years ending December 2024 to December 2027, Midea's projected revenue is expected to grow from Rmb409.1 billion in 2024 to Rmb501.5 billion in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from Rmb5.44 in 2024 to Rmb7.12 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [3]. - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 13.9 in 2024 to 9.7 in 2027, suggesting improved valuation over time [3]. Market Position and Strategy - Midea's management expects its B2B business to outgrow its B2C business, with double-digit growth anticipated in 2025 [6]. - The company aims to achieve an average market share of 15% in overseas markets, up from the current 4-5% [6]. - Midea is focusing on its core air conditioner segment, which is expected to have a more resilient margin outlook, while preparing for potential price competition in other segments [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao International Holding Ltd is Overweight, with an industry view of In-Line [6][67]. Core Insights - Haidilao's performance in April showed a decline in table turn by double digits year-over-year and a 10% drop during the Labor Day holiday, contrasting with a high-single-digit decline in March. The average spending per table remained stable year-over-year [9]. - The company plans to maintain stable average selling prices (ASP) while remaining flexible to macroeconomic and market conditions. In April, Haidilao opened four new locations and closed six, resulting in a net closure of 11 locations year-to-date [9]. - Despite facing top-line pressure, Haidilao's overall margin is expected to remain resilient due to slightly improved gross profit margin (GPM), stable staff cost ratios, and savings in rent and depreciation [9]. - The company attributes the weakness in April to a shift in consumer preference towards low-price casual dining and increased competition from at-home dining options [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Haidilao are as follows: Rmb 42,755 million for 2024, Rmb 45,930 million for 2025, Rmb 50,436 million for 2026, and Rmb 56,209 million for 2027 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are Rmb 0.87 for 2024, Rmb 0.99 for 2025, Rmb 1.12 for 2026, and Rmb 1.27 for 2027, indicating a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - The target price for Haidilao is set at HK$20.00, representing a 19% upside from the current price of HK$16.84 [6]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology suggests a target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x for 2025 estimated earnings, reflecting a conservative approach given the current macroeconomic uncertainties [11].