Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Great Wall Motor with a target price increase from HK$13.00 to HK$14.00, reflecting a revised FY24E EPS multiple of 11x [2][5]. Core Views - Great Wall Motor's 1Q24 net profit of RMB3.2 billion exceeded forecasts, leading to a 25% increase in the FY24E net profit forecast to RMB9.9 billion, representing a 41% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company needs a high-volume New Energy Vehicle (NEV) to enhance investor confidence in its electrification strategy, especially after previous PHEV model failures [2]. - The introduction of a lower-priced PHEV is anticipated to drive sales, while the pricing strategy for the new Wey Lanshan AD version is considered crucial [2]. Financial Summary - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB202.33 billion, a 16.8% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to reach RMB9.92 billion [4][9]. - The gross profit margin for FY24E is revised to 18.9%, up 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates, due to better-than-expected performance in 1Q24 [2][9]. - The company’s sales volume forecast for FY24E remains at 1.35 million units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [2]. Quarterly Performance - In 1Q24, Great Wall Motor reported a revenue of RMB42.86 billion, a 47.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 20% [2][8]. - The net profit for 1Q24 was RMB3.23 billion, marking a significant increase of 1,752.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Despite strong performance in off-road SUVs and overseas markets, the company lacks a competitive NEV to validate its electrification capabilities [2]. - The upcoming Beijing Auto Show is highlighted as a key event for investors to monitor developments in the NEV sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Zhejiang Dingli with a target price revised to RMB75, reflecting a 14.9% upside from the current price [3][6]. Core Insights - Zhejiang Dingli's net profit for 2023 increased by 49% year-on-year to RMB1.87 billion, aligning with earlier forecasts. The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 rose by 27% year-on-year to RMB404 million, also meeting expectations. The company anticipates that overseas sales will surpass domestic sales in 2024, indicating improved gross margins [3][4]. - The company is experiencing accelerated sales growth in the US and expects to achieve a sales target of 2,000 boom lifts for the year. The ramp-up of production at the new phase five plant is underway, with current monthly output at 150 units [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Zhejiang Dingli reported a record net profit of RMB574 million, a 51% increase year-on-year, with revenue growing by 23% to RMB1.57 billion. The gross margin expanded by 4.1 percentage points to 41% due to rising margins on boom lifts [3][4]. - For the full year 2023, total revenue reached RMB6.3 billion, with a 16% year-on-year growth. The revenue mix was 64% from overseas markets and 36% from China, with 75% of overseas sales coming from the US and Europe [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been raised by 7% and 9% respectively, driven by higher volume assumptions, improved gross margins, and increased finance income. The target price reflects an unchanged P/E ratio of 18x for 2024, which is 1 standard deviation below the historical average of 31x [3][4][11]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company expects boom lift sales to reach 2,250 units in 2024, with a significant increase in production capacity anticipated from the new plant. The gross margin for boom lifts is projected to improve to 31% in 2024 [11][12]. - The report highlights that the company is responding to increased demand in the EU, which constitutes approximately 37% of its overseas sales, with half of that from the EU market [3][4]. Key Assumptions - The report outlines key assumptions for future sales volumes and revenue, indicating a growth trajectory for boom lifts, scissor lifts, and vertical lifts through 2026. Total revenue is expected to reach RMB10.41 billion by 2026, with a blended gross margin of 37.8% [11][12][16].

M N 24 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Healthy outlook after a beat in retail discounts Li Ning may not be our top pick in the sportswear sector. But thanks to potential Target Price HK$22.17 sequential acceleration in sales growth and decent margin improvement (better (Previous TP HK$24.86) discounts and operating leverage), we are still positive on Li Ning and maintain Up/Downside 19.9% BUY with TP of HK$ 22.17, based on 15x FY24E P/E. Current ...

Investment Rating - Reiterate BUY with a SOTP-based target price of HK$22 19 [2][10] Core Views - Xiaomi's SU7 sales target of 100k units in 2024 and 10k monthly deliveries in June exceeded market expectations [2] - SU7 gross profit margin (GPM) target of 5-10% in 2024 is above expectations, with breakeven expected at 300-400k sales per year [2] - Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem is a major competitive edge over peers [2] - Near-term catalysts include the Beijing Auto Show (25-27 Apr), 1Q24 results in May, and 10k SU7 monthly shipments in June [2] SU7 Sales and Expansion - SU7 non-refundable orders reached 70k, with a higher share of the high-end SU7 MAX model [2] - Xiaomi aims to expand its smart driving team to 1 5k/2k by 2024/25 from 1k currently [2] - EV sales/service centers are targeted to cover 46/82 cities by the end of 2024 [2] 2024 Guidance - Revenue guidance of RMB300bn for core business, with RMB24bn in R&D expenses (including RMB11-12bn for EV-related) [2] - Smartphone shipments target an increase of 15-20mn in 2024 compared to 146mn in 2023 [2] - 1Q24 smartphone shipments grew 34% YoY to 40 8mn [2] Financial Forecasts - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB321 495mn, with an 18 6% YoY growth [3] - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB17 321mn, a 10 1% YoY decline [3] - FY24E EPS is forecasted at RMB0 70, with a P/E ratio of 21 5x [3] Valuation - SOTP-based valuation assigns 13x/10x/15x FY24E P/E to smartphone/AIoT/internet businesses, and 0 75x FY25E P/S to the EV business [10] - The target price of HK$22 19 implies a 37 2% upside from the current price of HK$16 18 [3][10] Peer Comparison - Xiaomi's FY24E P/E of 20 7x is higher than peers like BYD (8 8x) and Sunny Optical (25 9x) [12] - The company's market cap stands at HK$329 133 6mn, with a 3-month average turnover of HK$1 534 9mn [4] Financial Performance - FY23 revenue declined 3 2% YoY to RMB270 970mn, while adjusted net profit increased 126 3% YoY to RMB19 272 8mn [3] - FY23 ROE improved to 11 3%, up from 1 8% in FY22 [3] - FY24E gross profit margin is expected to be 19 0%, slightly lower than FY23's 21 2% [3]

M N 24 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) 4Q23 & 1Q24 earnings not exciting; but more positive drivers to come Target Price RMB64.00 Hengli’s net profit in 2023 was +7% YoY to RMB2.5bn, which is -5%/+3% versus (Previous TP RMB83.00) our/consensus estimates. Net profit in 1Q24 dropped 4% YoY to RMB602mn, Up/Downside 24.9% due to weak demand for excavators’ hydraulic components and an increased Current Price RMB51.24 expense ratio. We trim o ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price (TP) raised to RMB183, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of RMB158.36 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with FY23 revenue growth of 11.2% YoY to RMB10.7 billion and net profit soaring by 77.6% YoY to RMB2.2 billion. The 1Q24 results were even more impressive, with revenue increasing by 163.6% YoY to RMB4.8 billion and net profit rising by 303.8% YoY to RMB1.0 billion [3][4]. - The growth is attributed to robust demand for high-speed optical transceivers, particularly 400G and 800G products, which accounted for over 90% of total revenue in FY23. The company expects 800G shipments to accelerate in the coming quarters as production capacity expands [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts have been revised upwards by 25% for 2024 and 44% for 2025, while net profit forecasts have been increased by 35% for 2024 and 59% for 2025 [3][4]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB22.6 billion, with a gross margin of 33.8% and a net profit of RMB4.9 billion, translating to an EPS of RMB6.11 [7][11]. - The company’s revenue is projected to continue growing, with FY25E revenue expected to reach RMB29.7 billion and net profit of RMB6.3 billion [7][11]. - The balance sheet shows total assets of RMB20.0 billion and total liabilities of RMB5.2 billion as of FY23, indicating a strong equity position [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Netflix, with a target price of US$644.50, reflecting a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of US$555.04 [2][3]. Core Insights - Netflix reported strong 1Q24 results, with revenue growth of 15% YoY, surpassing estimates by 1%, and an operating profit margin (OPM) of 28.1%, which is 2 percentage points above estimates [2][3]. - The management has guided an increase in FY24E OPM to 25% from the previous 24%, indicating confidence in continued profitability despite a moderate revenue guidance for FY24E [2][3]. - The report highlights Netflix's initiatives in AVOD and paid sharing as positive drivers for future growth, with an expected earnings upside from efficient content spending and reduced competition [2][3]. Financial Summary - **Earnings Summary**: - FY24E revenue is projected at US$38.428 billion, reflecting a 14% YoY growth, with net profit expected to reach US$7.978 billion [3][18]. - The report anticipates EPS growth of 52.8% in FY24E, with a reported EPS of US$18.71 [3][18]. - **Operating Performance**: - The operating profit for FY24E is estimated at US$9.597 billion, with an operating margin of 25% [3][15]. - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit from US$6.954 billion in FY23A to US$9.597 billion in FY24E, representing a growth of 38% [3][18]. - **Cash Flow**: - Net cash from operations is projected to be US$7.389 billion in FY24E, with a notable increase in cash at the end of the year expected to reach US$8.934 billion [19][19]. Market Position and Guidance - Netflix's management has expressed confidence in achieving double-digit revenue growth in the medium term, supported by a strong content pipeline for 2Q24E and 2H24E [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased engagement and monetization strategies, despite the removal of quarterly subscriber and ARM disclosures starting 1Q25 [2][3].

M N 22 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Bosideng (3998 HK) From winter clothing to all seasons clothing We think the guidance raise is a key moment for the company, as the success Target Price HK$5.34 that Bosdieng has achieved in the sun-protective product series shows that it is (Previous TP HK$3.86) capable of generating sales in all seasons (other than just fall and winter). Also, Up/Downside 23.5% despite our raises in estimates and TP, we still think our num ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a target price of HK$6.31, indicating a potential upside of 41.4% from the current price of HK$4.46 [4]. Core Insights - Xtep's retail sales in 1Q24 increased by high single digits year-over-year, aligning with market expectations, and showing signs of acceleration in growth due to new product launches and e-commerce support [2][3]. - The company expects improved retail sales growth, better discounts, and inventory levels from 2Q24E onward, supported by the popularity of new products like the 360X running shoes [2][3]. - The stock is currently trading at an undemanding valuation of 9x FY24E P/E, which is attractive compared to its 8-year average of 15x [2][4]. Earnings Summary - Xtep's revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 15,913 million, with a year-over-year growth of 10.9% [12]. - The net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 1,230 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 7.7% [12]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% for sales and 18% for net profit during FY23-26E [2][4]. Retail Performance - Retail sales growth for offline, online, and kids segments was reported at low single digits, over 25%, and 10% respectively in 1Q24 [2]. - Retail discounts narrowed to 25%-30% in 1Q24, showing improvement from 30% in 4Q23, with expectations for further reduction in 2Q24E [2][3]. Market Position - Xtep's new products, particularly the 360X running shoes, have been well-received, with over 500,000 pairs sold in just one month [2]. - The e-commerce segment is expected to rebound as the company increases the supply of entry-level and value-for-money products [2]. Financial Projections - The report conservatively estimates a revenue of RMB 17,587 million for FY25E and RMB 19,322 million for FY26E, maintaining the same growth expectations as previous estimates [8][9]. - Gross profit margin is projected to improve to 42.7% in FY25E and 43.1% in FY26E [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Sunny Optical with a target price of HKD 49.37, representing an upside of 31.8% from the current price of HKD 37.45 [1]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's FY23 results were disappointing, with revenue and net income reported at RMB 31,681 million and RMB 1,099 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.6% and 54.3% respectively. The results were below market consensus and the company's own estimates, primarily due to weak smartphone demand, ASP and GM pressures, and increased interest expenses [1][2]. - The company is focusing on improving its product mix to enhance ASP and GM, with expectations for a gradual recovery in global smartphone shipments in FY24E, driven by flagship models from top-tier clients [3][5]. Company Update - Sunny's high-end product contribution has stabilized, with a notable performance in the 6P+ lens segment, which accounted for 32% of the high-end product mix in FY23. However, overall high-end product shipments declined by 20% year-on-year [2]. - The company provided conservative guidance for FY24E, expecting a 5% year-on-year growth in HLS shipments while HCM shipments are anticipated to remain flat [3]. - Sunny's investment in R&D has increased, with R&D expenses reaching approximately RMB 2.6 billion, accounting for 8.1% of total revenue, and FY24E CAPEX is guided to increase by 20% year-on-year to around RMB 3.0 billion [6][7]. Financial Performance - The report indicates a significant reduction in FY24E-25E EPS estimates by 22.4% and 32.7% respectively, due to lower sales and GM assumptions. Despite this, a mild recovery is expected in FY24E [7][10]. - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 35,823 million, with a gross margin of 22.6%, reflecting a decrease of 590 basis points compared to previous estimates [10]. Market Position and Outlook - Sunny Optical holds a dominant position in the Chinese handset market with approximately 50% market share and is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of automotive products and non-smartphone segments, which accounted for over 30% of total revenue in FY23 [4][7]. - The automotive segment continues to show strong growth, with vehicle-related product sales increasing by 28.6% year-on-year, and the company expects to reach RMB 2.0 billion in automotive CCM revenue for FY24E, representing a 25% year-on-year growth [6].