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Dreadnought Resources (DRE) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-07-29 03:02
Dreadnought Resources (DRE) Update Summary Company Overview - Dreadnought Resources is currently fully funded with **$10 million** in cash, enabling significant exploration and production activities [5][64] - The company aims to develop the high-grade **Star of Mangaroon** project to generate cash flow and is focused on finding more gold quickly [7][64] Key Points and Arguments Financial Position - Dreadnought has **$10 million** in cash, marking a strong financial position for exploration and production [5][64] - The company has **5 billion shares** on issue, with no plans for consolidation, aiming to manage dilution through strategic funding [70][74] Exploration and Production Strategy - The strategy includes developing the **Star of Mangaroon** to generate cash flow, with a projected **$50 million** in free cash flow from a scoping study [9][64] - The company is conducting infill drilling at the Star of Mangaroon, with a resource estimate of **23,000 ounces** at **12.8 g/t** within **100 meters** of the surface [9][12] - Dreadnought is also exploring other projects, including **Pritchard's lead mine** and **Two Peaks**, focusing on gold discovery [18][36] Joint Ventures and Partnerships - Dreadnought has two joint ventures with **Teck** for base and critical metal assets, indicating a diversified approach to resource development [8][64] - The company is exploring revenue-sharing agreements and debt facilities to fund production without excessive dilution [69][75] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant cash flow generation from the Star of Mangaroon throughout **2026**, with mining approvals expected by the end of the year [17][84] - Dreadnought is optimistic about the potential for discovery and exploration, with plans for multiple drill programs in the coming months [66][50] Additional Important Information - The company is seeing increased inbound interest in its rare earth and critical metal assets, which may provide additional value [8][64] - Dreadnought is focused on improving assay techniques, particularly with the **Leachwell** method, to enhance gold recovery and resource estimation [21][30] - The management has a blocking stake of over **10%**, making hostile takeovers challenging [80][81] Conclusion Dreadnought Resources is positioned for growth with a solid financial foundation, a clear strategy for gold production, and ongoing exploration efforts. The company is actively managing shareholder concerns regarding dilution and is exploring various funding options to support its ambitious plans.
Teck Resources extends mine life at Highland Valley to 2046
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2025-07-24 16:05
Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 16:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $722 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the same period last year, primarily due to strong performance in the zinc segment and reduced corporate overhead costs [28][29][30] - Year-to-date, the company has returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with $548 million returned in Q2 alone [29][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the copper segment, gross profit before depreciation and amortization declined by 3% to $673 million, attributed to lower copper prices and higher operating costs, despite stable production levels at 109,000 tonnes [31][33] - The zinc segment saw a significant improvement, with gross profit before depreciation and amortization increasing by 137% to $159 million, driven by higher byproduct revenues and lower operating costs [36][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged risks to production guidance for QB due to ongoing TMS development work, revising its outlook to 210,000 to 230,000 tonnes for the year [22][21] - The Highland Valley Copper mine life extension project is expected to produce an average of 132,000 tonnes of copper annually over its life, with capital costs estimated between CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 2.4 billion [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its copper growth strategy while returning cash to shareholders, with plans to double copper production by the end of the decade [9][23] - The sanctioning of the Highland Valley Copper mine life extension project is seen as foundational to the company's future copper production growth [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in overcoming current operational constraints related to TMS development, maintaining guidance for 2026 production levels [46][50] - The company remains committed to safety and sustainability, achieving recognition as one of Corporate Knight's Best 50 Corporate Citizens in Canada for the 19th consecutive year [12] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with $8.9 billion available, including $4.8 billion in cash, and has reduced its debt by $2 billion since 2024 [40][41] - The company is actively working on optimizing its operations and exploring growth opportunities through capital-efficient projects [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tailings issue on QB and future investments - Management acknowledged that TMS development work has limited online time for QB but expects to resolve these issues without additional capital investment next year [46][49] Question: CapEx guidance for the second half of the year - Management confirmed that the increased CapEx guidance is primarily due to the sanctioning of the Highland Valley project and ongoing TMS development costs [54][56] Question: Ship loader repairs and CapEx impact - Management indicated that repairs to the ship loader are ongoing, with no production impact due to alternative shipping arrangements [64][66] Question: Sequencing of Zafranal and San Nicolas projects - Management noted that Zafranal is more advanced in permitting but both projects are considered options for future development [67][68] Question: Technical report for Highland Valley extension - A technical report is expected to be published in August, detailing the throughput and production profile for the Highland Valley project [70][72] Question: Incremental CapEx for QB's TMF - Management clarified the distinction between project CapEx and sustaining CapEx, emphasizing the ongoing nature of TMS development costs [100][101]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $722 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the same period last year, primarily due to strong performance in the Trail operations and reduced corporate overhead costs [27][28][30] - Year-to-date, the company has returned a total of $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with $548 million returned in Q2 alone [28][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the copper segment, gross profit before depreciation and amortization declined by 3% to $673 million, attributed to lower copper prices and higher operating costs, despite stable production levels at 109,000 tonnes [30][32] - The zinc segment saw a significant improvement, with gross profit before depreciation and amortization increasing by 137% to $159 million, driven by higher byproduct revenues and lower operating costs [36][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged a reduction in settlement pricing adjustments amounting to $91 million, impacting overall financial performance [29] - The net cash unit cost for copper improved to $2.02 per pound, while the net cash unit cost for zinc decreased to $0.49 per pound [32][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its copper growth strategy, with the sanctioning of the Highland Valley Copper Mine life extension project, expected to produce an average of 132,000 tonnes of copper annually [7][16] - The company aims to double copper production by the end of the decade, supported by ongoing growth projects in Peru and Mexico [25][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in overcoming current operational challenges related to the TMS development work at QB, maintaining guidance for 2026 production levels [47][48] - The company remains committed to balancing investment in growth with cash returns to shareholders, emphasizing a strong balance sheet and liquidity of $8.9 billion [40][42] Other Important Information - The company was recognized as one of Corporate Knight's 2025 Best 50 Corporate Citizens in Canada, marking the 19th consecutive year of receiving this accolade [11] - The company has reduced its debt by $2 billion since 2024, maintaining a strong financial position with investment-grade credit ratings [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tailings issue on QB and future investments - Management confirmed that the TMS development work has limited online time for QB but expects to resolve these issues without additional capital investment next year [47][49] Question: Confidence in achieving production guidance for 2026 - Management expressed confidence in reaching the low end of the guidance for 2026, citing operational parameters and past performance as indicators of future success [50][52] Question: CapEx guidance for the second half of the year - Management acknowledged the need to spend $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in the second half of the year, primarily due to the sanctioning of the Highland Valley project and ongoing TMS development costs [55][56] Question: Ship loader repairs and CapEx impact - Management indicated that repairs to the ship loader are ongoing, with no production impact due to alternative shipping arrangements [66][68] Question: Sequencing of projects for Zafranal and San Nicolas - Management noted that Zafranal is more advanced in permitting but emphasized that both projects are options for future development [70][71] Question: Technical report for Highland Valley extension - Management confirmed that a technical report will be published in August, detailing the throughput and production profile for the Highland Valley project [74][76]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-24 15:00
Financial Highlights - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% to $722 million, reflecting higher profitability at Trail Operations and lower corporate overhead costs, partially offset by lower copper and zinc prices and higher operating costs at QB & Highland Valley[10, 28, 30] - Profit from continuing operations before taxes increased by 525% to $125 million[10, 28] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations increased by 217% to $038[10, 28] Production and Operations - Copper production guidance revised downwards for Quebrada Blanca (QB) from 230-270 thousand tonnes to 210-230 thousand tonnes, impacting total copper production guidance, which is revised to 470-525 thousand tonnes[21] - Molybdenum production guidance revised downwards for Quebrada Blanca from 30-45 thousand tonnes to 17-25 thousand tonnes, impacting total molybdenum production guidance, which is revised to 38-54 thousand tonnes[21] - Red Dog zinc sales above guidance, with significantly lower net cash unit costs[10] Capital Allocation and Growth - $22 billion of the $325 billion authorized share buyback program has been completed[10] - Sanctioned Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension (HVC MLE) project, extending mine life to 2046, with a project capital estimate of C$21-24 billion[10, 20] - Sustaining capital expenditures for copper increased by C$340 million, resulting in a revised total of C$940-1010 million[21] - Growth capital expenditures for copper increased by C$300-340 million, resulting in a revised total of C$1040-1170 million[22] Market Outlook - The company expects further policy support in China during Q3, with an expansion of consumer subsidies for goods and an acceleration of infrastructure projects, which should help underpin metals demand[83] - Copper market fundamentals indicate that investment in copper concentrate supply hasn't matched demand, and the company expects a more electricity-intensive phase of global growth in the coming years[89] - Zinc market fundamentals indicate that 2025 is set for mine supply growth after several lean years, and zinc projects struggle to compete for capital[91]
Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-07-24 12:06
Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources Ltd reported quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, but down from $0.58 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of +35.00% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.46 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.73% and down from $2.83 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Teck Resources has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Teck Resources shares have declined approximately 4.8% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.1% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Teck Resources is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.35 on revenues of $2.14 billion, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $1.45 on revenues of $7.46 billion [7] - The outlook for the Mining - Miscellaneous industry, where Teck Resources operates, is currently in the bottom 34% of Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]
Teck Resources (TECK) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-24 11:00
Business Overview and Strategy - Teck is focusing on metals essential for the energy transition, aiming to be a leading provider of responsibly-produced critical minerals[13, 15] - The company is balancing growth with cash returns to shareholders, focusing on core excellence, value-driven growth, and resilience[13, 15] - Teck's strategy revolves around four pillars: metals for the energy transition, core excellence, value-driven growth, and resilience[14, 15] Operational Performance and Outlook - Teck anticipates copper production to increase from 446kt in 2024 to between 470kt and 525kt in 2025[27] - The company projects a copper EBITDA margin expansion from 42% in 2024 to 52% in 2025[27] - The net cash unit cost for copper is expected to improve from $220 per pound in 2024 to between $190 and $205 per pound in 2025[27] - The company has revised its 2025 copper production guidance for Quebrada Blanca (QB) to between 210kt and 230kt, a decrease of 20kt to 40kt from the previous guidance[44] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Teck is committed to returning 30-100% of available cash flow to shareholders[19, 29] - Approximately $60 billion has been returned to shareholders since 2020, with ~$22 billion in authorized share buybacks completed from a $325 billion program (~70%)[29] - The company maintains a base dividend of $050 per share per year paid quarterly[20, 29] Growth Projects and Balance Sheet - The Highland Valley Mine Life Extension (HVC MLE) project is sanctioned, extending the mine life to 2046, with average copper production of 132ktpa over the life of mine[33, 34] - The project capital estimate at sanction for HVC MLE is between C$21 billion and C$24 billion[34] - Teck has a strong liquidity position of $48 billion as of July 23, 2025, and net debt of C$02 billion as of June 30, 2025[37]
Analysts Estimate Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
ZACKS· 2025-07-17 15:06
Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 24 ...
锌半年报:锌市下半场浪逐低行
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:45
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade protection, the global economic downward pressure persists. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots tends to be loose, while the demand faces insufficient momentum in traditional consumption sectors and a slowdown in the growth rate of emerging consumption sectors. The degree of supply - demand surplus expands. It is expected that the zinc price center will gradually decline under pressure in the second half of the year, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher. If the macro - economy deteriorates significantly, the zinc price may seek support from the mine cost [4][94][96]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Review - In the first half of the year, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend in the oscillation center. In the first quarter, due to concerns about tariff increases and the strong US dollar, combined with the Spring Festival holiday in China, the zinc price was weak. In March, the price stabilized and rebounded and oscillated around 24,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to unexpected US tariffs, the zinc price hit a new low in the first half of the year, then stabilized and rebounded. By June 30, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.96% from the beginning of the year. The London zinc price also showed a downward trend in the oscillation range, closing at 2,741 US dollars/ton on June 30, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the year [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Situation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed signs of a slowdown, with inflation potentially rising in the future. The Fed was cautious about interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy will further suppress economic growth. The "Big Beautiful Act" may ease the economic decline to some extent but may also lead to secondary inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times to relieve the economic slowdown pressure, and the US dollar index is in a downward channel in the medium - to - long term [11][12]. 2.2 Eurozone Situation - In the first half of 2025, the Eurozone economy showed a mild recovery. The European Central Bank's continuous interest rate cuts stimulated investment and real - estate demand, and net exports increased. Inflation continued to decline. In the second half of the year, the Eurozone economy faces both opportunities and challenges. Although there is still room for interest rate cuts, the threat of tariffs may limit economic growth, and inflation may rebound [13][14]. 2.3 China's Situation - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed resilience, with stable GDP growth. Policies focused on implementing existing measures. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may slow down, with exports, consumption, and manufacturing investment facing challenges. However, infrastructure investment will remain stable, and the annual GDP growth target is still expected to be achieved [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Turns from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, the global zinc concentrate supply increased. Overseas, new projects climbed production smoothly, and some mines resumed production and increased production. In China, although the cumulative output from January to May decreased year - on - year, it is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The annual global increment is expected to be 55 - 600,000 tons [30]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Rise Significantly, and Zinc Ore Imports Remain High**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, processing fees have rebounded. By June 2025, the average monthly domestic and foreign processing fees increased significantly. In the second half of the year, there is still room for growth, but the growth rate may slow down. From January to May 2025, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports increased by 52.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year [35][36]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas Smelters Have a Mixture of Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disruption Risks Remain**: From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Overseas smelters had a mixture of production cuts and restarts. Due to high costs, there is a risk of production cuts in overseas smelters [41]. - **Refined Zinc Supply Recovers Strongly from January to June, and the Zinc Ingot Import Window Closes Again**: From January to June 2025, China's refined zinc production increased year - on - year. It is expected to maintain a high level of 550,000 - 600,000 tons per month in the second half of the year. The annual output is expected to reach 6.6 million tons, an increase of 6.84% year - on - year. The import of zinc ingots decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [47][48]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas Terminal Consumption Shows a Mixed Picture, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook Is Uncertain**: In the first half of 2025, the global refined zinc demand decreased slightly year - on - year. In the US, the real - estate market was weak, and the auto market may slow down in the second half of the year. In the Eurozone, the real - estate market showed signs of improvement, and the auto market had a mixed performance [57][58][59]. - **Initial - Stage Enterprises' Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline, and Galvanized Steel Exports Remain Strong**: The operating rates of initial - stage enterprises followed the seasonal pattern. In the second half of the year, the operating rates are expected to decline in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter. Galvanized steel exports were strong in the first half of the year but are expected to decline in the third quarter and stabilize in the fourth quarter [72][73]. - **Policy Support Increases, and Terminal Consumption Is Differentiated**: In the traditional consumption sector, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the real - estate market will continue to bottom out, the auto market will maintain good momentum, and the home - appliance market will face internal sales slowdown pressure. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic market may slow down, while the wind - power market is expected to maintain high growth [74][77][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory First Increases and Then Decreases**: In the first half of the year, the LME inventory continued to decline from a high level. In the second half of the year, it is expected to remain at a high level with a narrowing decline. The domestic inventory was at a relatively low level. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure to increase inventory in the third quarter, and it is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [92]. 4. Summary and Outlook - In the second half of the year, the global zinc concentrate supply may accelerate, and the annual increment will exceed 500,000 tons. The supply of refined zinc is expected to remain high, while the demand faces downward risks. Overall, the supply - demand surplus will expand, and the zinc price is expected to decline gradually, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher [94][96].
铅半年报:铅市供需双增旺季价显动能
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. On the demand side, although there is an expectation of seasonal recovery, the consumption front - loading driven by policies may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up. During the seasonal consumption recovery period, the price may show strong upward momentum [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Lead Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely around the bottom area, ranging from 16,165 to 17,805 yuan/ton. By the end of June, the price closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 2.23% from the beginning of the year. LME lead fluctuated strongly in the first quarter and first declined then rose in the second quarter. By the end of June, it closed at 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 5.59% from the beginning of the year [8][9]. II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **2.1.1 Global Lead Concentrate Supply Recovering Slowly**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to May 2025, the domestic cumulative lead concentrate production was 633,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. It is expected that the overseas increment will be 100,000 tons and the domestic increment will be around 70,000 tons, with a global lead mine production growth rate of 2.3% to 4.62 million tons [10][12]. - **2.1.2 Lead Concentrate Processing Fees Remaining Low, Silver Concentrate Import Demand Increasing**: As of June 2025, the average domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 US dollars/dry ton respectively. In the second half of the year, the processing fees are expected to stabilize and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter. From January to May 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate import volume was 552,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected that the monthly import volume in the second half of the year will be between 130,000 and 150,000 tons. The import demand for silver concentrate is expected to remain high [20][21]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **2.2.1 Global Refined Lead Supply Growth Rate Moderate**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 4.3915 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26][28]. - **2.2.2 Stable Electrolytic Lead Production, Focus on New Project Commissioning in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative electrolytic lead production was 1.8902 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. It is expected that the annual electrolytic lead production will increase by 5.6% year - on - year to 3.8 million tons [31][32]. - **2.2.3 Profit and Raw Material Shortage Restraining Production, High Production Interference Rate in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative recycled refined lead production was 1.5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.35%. It is expected that the annual recycled refined lead production will be 3.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [37][39]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **2.3.1 Global Refined Lead Demand Situation**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons [44]. - **2.3.2 High Lead Battery Inventory, Focus on the Realization of the Traditional Consumption Peak Season in the Third Quarter**: In the first half of 2025, the lead battery enterprise start - up rate was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the finished product inventory and dealer inventory were at relatively high levels. In the second half of the year, the start - up rate is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the battery replacement demand will increase in the fourth quarter [51][57]. - **3.2.1 Unfavorable Shanghai - London Ratio for Lead Ingot and Battery Exports, Imports Supplementing Raw Material Ratio**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative net import volume of refined lead and lead products was 33,611 tons. In the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to rise in the third quarter and decline in the fourth quarter. The lead battery export volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year from January to May 2025, and the decline is expected to narrow in the second half of the year [58][59]. - **2.3.2.2 Policy - Guided Marginal Improvement in Lead Battery Consumption Prospect**: In the automotive sector, the replacement demand for lead batteries is stable, and the new demand is growing. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is strong, and the new standard implementation and subsidy policy will boost consumption. In the energy storage sector, the demand for lead batteries has growth potential [64][69]. 2.4 High Overseas Inventory, Neutral Domestic Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the LME lead inventory was at a high level, and the domestic inventory was at a neutral level. In the second half of the year, the overseas inventory is expected to remain high, and the domestic inventory is expected to rise, but the inventory accumulation pressure will be relieved by the constraints on recycled lead production [77]. III. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. The consumption side has seasonal recovery expectations, but the consumption front - loading may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up [80].