锌：加工费延续下行 锌价底部仍有支撑 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，本周国内锌精矿偏紧未改，冶炼厂继续积极采购国产锌精矿，国内多地锌精矿加工费继续走低，下调幅度150~300元/金属吨不等。进口锌精矿看，随 着进口锌精矿亏损较前期修复，国内冶炼厂对进口锌精矿接货意愿提升，近 ...

据国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）报告，今年8月全球锌矿产量为109.76万吨，环比增加2.2%，同比增加 13.1%；1—8月累计产量为830.5万吨，同比增长6.5%。10月该机构预计今年全球锌矿产量将同比增长 4.6%，至1251万吨。从全球角度看，锌矿供应总体是偏宽松的。 国内10月锌精矿产量为33.08万吨，较9月回升约1.6万吨，同比增长12.3%；1—10月累计产量为305.8万 吨，同比降幅为2.4%。从短期来看，我国锌矿供应有明显收紧倾向，加工费快速下移。相关数据显 示，截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至2600元/金属吨，较8月的高点下降了1300元/金属吨。内外锌矿比 价持续低位运行，冶炼厂积极抢购国产矿。 10月下旬后，锌价重心逐步上移。受供给端出现积极变化影响，冶炼厂抢购国产矿情绪浓厚，锌矿供应 边际收紧，海外锌价坚挺也提供了一定支撑。 国内方面，据行业统计机构数据，10月我国精炼锌产量为61.72万吨，同比增长约21%；1—10月累计产 量为568.6万吨，同比增长10%。进入11月，锌矿供应紧张格局凸显，在利润压力下部分冶炼厂可能缩 减产量。不过副产品硫酸价格处于高位，冶炼厂大多通过技术 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The bearish logic for zinc prices in 2025 was due to the rapid increase in domestic smelting supply after the recovery of mine supply. After 10 months, the zinc price dropped from a high of 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton. Now, although the domestic supply pressure remains, fundamental factors have changed marginally, and the decline in zinc prices may have ended [1][6][39] Group 2: Domestic Mine Supply Falling Short of Expectations - From January to September, the cumulative output of zinc concentrate was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. In October, production is expected to decline by about 15,000 tons to around 300,000 tons. With high-altitude mines entering the shutdown cycle in the fourth quarter, domestic mine supply growth expectations have basically failed [7] - Due to the continuous strong overseas and weak domestic situation, the cost - performance of imported mines is low. As winter storage approaches and smelter raw material inventories decline, domestic mine TC has started to fall, showing a marginal positive factor [7] - As of the end of September, smelter raw material inventories had decreased by 15,000 tons from the peak, and the number of available days had decreased by 3 days [7] Group 3: Overseas Deficit to be Filled by China - From January to the third quarter, overseas refined zinc production totaled 5.132 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The annual output is expected to be 6.836 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. Low long - term contract prices and high energy costs have inhibited overseas smelter production enthusiasm [15] - LME inventory has dropped from a high of 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 40,000 tons. The continuous decline in inventory along with rising premiums indicates real consumption. The long - standing strong overseas and weak domestic pattern has opened the window for Chinese refined zinc exports, which will significantly relieve China's supply pressure [15][17] Group 4: Consumption Exceeding Expectations - Apparent consumption has been boosted by the expansion of integrated and processing enterprises. The zinc alloy production capacity of 53 major smelters in China is 2.06 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total zinc smelting capacity. In 2024, the zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 1.099 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. If social inventory accumulates to 200,000 tons, the year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption can reach about 5.9%. If inventory reduction occurs around November, it will be a positive factor [24] - In terms of actual consumption, exports and domestic demand are resilient. Real estate drags zinc consumption by 2.5% - 3%. Infrastructure investment has a 3.4% cumulative year - on - year growth from January to September 2025, with grid investment growing at 14%. The investment in railway, ship, aerospace transportation, etc., is strong, and it is estimated that this sector, combined with infrastructure, will drive consumption growth of 3.5% - 5%. Automobiles, "two heavy and two new" industries, and exports also contribute to consumption growth. The actual consumption growth rate of zinc for the whole year is estimated to reach about 5%, and the apparent consumption may reach over 7% [28][29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bearish on zinc (ZN) [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in Q3 2025, but there are significant differences among officials. The short - term interest - rate cut path is uncertain. In the medium - to - long - term, the global monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will support the non - ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, China's economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [1][3][110] - The current domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Demand is also mediocre. The supply - surplus pattern of zinc fundamentals is expected to continue, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices. However, the downside space of zinc is limited. The Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and the expected global liquidity loosening support the non - ferrous metals sector, and the waiting - to - be - repaired internal - external price ratio also limits the lower limit of SHFE zinc. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move down slightly with small fluctuations in Q4 [5][111][113] - Unilateral trading has low cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to short - allocation opportunities within the sector. The contango/backwardation spread maintains the reverse - arbitrage logic, but the space is limited. In addition, for internal - external trading, pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities when the internal inventory is transferred overseas [2][113] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend Review**: In Q3 2025, the prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed a divergent trend. SHFE zinc showed an inverted "V" shape, while LME zinc oscillated upwards. The price fluctuations were affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, labor strikes at refineries, and inventory trends [6] - **Spread and Premium/Discount Changes**: In June 2025, the zinc social inventory started to accumulate, and the basis was quickly adjusted downwards, turning into a discount at the end of July. As of September 22, the average spot premium/discount in Shanghai dropped to - 60 yuan/ton. The domestic basis is at a low level in recent years, while the LME basis is at a high level. In the future, the domestic spot is likely to maintain a discount pattern. Pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.2 Macro Aspects - **US**: The interest - rate cut cycle restarted, but there are differences among Fed officials, and the interest - rate cut pace may be cautious. In the short - term, the interest - rate cut is in line with market expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to promote global liquidity release and support the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the US economic recession probability still exists as the non - farm payroll data was disappointing [18][19][21] - **China**: In Q3, economic data declined significantly. In August, investment, consumption, and production data all declined. Economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [32][34][38] 3.3 Fundamental Overview - **Raw Material End**: - Global zinc ore supply has recovered significantly. In 2025, overseas zinc ore production increased year - on - year, and in Q4, overseas mines may increase production to meet the annual targets. Domestic zinc concentrate production is stable, but northern mines will have seasonal maintenance at the end of Q4. Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level and are expected to continue in Q4 due to winter storage demand [39][41][47] - In Q3 2025, the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores showed a divergent trend. The domestic processing fee increase was limited and has reached an inflection point, while the imported processing fee continued to rise. In Q4, the imported processing fee still has room to rise [56][58] - **Smelting End**: - Global refined zinc production decreased in H1 2025, with a significant internal - external divergence. Domestic zinc ingot production increased due to good profits, while overseas refineries had low operating rates due to high costs and low profits [62] - Domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Recycled zinc will bring some incremental output, and the key incremental output of primary zinc lies in the Huoshaoyun project, but its production start is slower than expected. Overseas refineries have limited incremental output, and the supply of overseas zinc ingots is expected to remain tight. China's refined zinc imports decreased in 2025, and the zinc ingot export window is almost open [66][69][71] - **Demand End**: - The downstream demand in the initial stage showed no obvious peak - off - peak characteristics, and there are concerns about future demand. The export of galvanized sheets was affected by the anti - dumping tax in Vietnam, and the future export is expected to be weak [73][80][85] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, but infrastructure is still the key support for zinc consumption. The real estate market is still the main drag on zinc consumption, but the demand for zinc may improve slightly in Q4. The home appliance industry is expected to weaken due to the shortage of national subsidies and the "de - stocking" in the overseas market. The automobile industry maintained high growth in production and sales in Q3, and the demand for zinc is expected to be good in the peak season [88][91][100] - **Inventory**: Since June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has been accumulating, while the LME zinc inventory has continued to decline rapidly. The internal - external inventory divergence has intensified, and the export window is approaching. If the export window opens, the domestic inventory may be transferred overseas, which will change the inventory divergence trend [104]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures bottomed out and rebounded. The macro - situation is centered around the Fed's October interest - rate cut expectation, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report. The improvement in demand has led to inventory reduction, and the low overseas inventory and strong structure support the zinc price. However, the resumption of production in domestic refineries and new capacity input will keep the supply high, limiting the upward elasticity of zinc prices. Overall, the long - and short - term forces are balanced, and the continuous adjustment space of zinc prices is limited [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the price of SHFE zinc remained unchanged at 22,045 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc rose from 2898.5 to 2922.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.61 to 7.54. The inventory of SHFE increased by 4666 tons to 99315 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 4025 tons to 43,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.66 million tons to 15.04 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 50 to - 60 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2511, fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after bottoming out and rebounding. The final price was 21,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27%. LME zinc first declined and then rose, supported by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed at 2886.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. In the spot market, by September 25th, the trading was dominated by traders' shipments, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, with weakening purchasing power and a slight decline in spot discounts [6][7]. 3. Industry News - In October, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average imported ore processing fee was 87.51 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.83 dollars/dry ton. Antamina Mine's zinc production is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, a 67% increase from last year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external ratio, spot and LME premiums, inventory situations of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream end - user enterprise operating rates [15][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].

Report Summary - The core contradiction of zinc logic has changed from the expectation of ore supply surplus to the difficult - to - solve internal and external supply - demand contradiction. The growth of ore supply has been realized, but the imbalance between internal and external zinc ingot supply and demand persists [2]. Domestic Zinc Ore Reserve and TC - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 3.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The cumulative domestic ore production was 2.0677 million metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. Domestic ore production increase is difficult, and the supply growth is lower than expected. The TC may have limited upward space in the later stage [5][8]. Overseas Zinc Ore Production - According to sample mines, the production in Q1 2025 was 1.136 million tons, and in Q2 it was 1.17 million tons. Assuming 3 unreported mines had the same Q2 output as Q1, the Q2 output would be 1.215 million tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons quarter - on - quarter and 110,000 tons year - on - year. The annual output of major mines in 2025 is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons [5][17]. Domestic Smelting and Supply - From January to August 2025, China's refined zinc production was 4.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In August, the monthly output increased by 28.8% year - on - year, and the expected growth rate in September is over 20%. The smelting profit persists, and the supply pressure remains. Even if the consumption peak season arrives as expected, the social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with an expected increase of over 200,000 tons in the second half of the year [5][23]. Overseas Supply and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, overseas refined zinc production was 3.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3%. The expected output in the second half is 3.338 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.9%. Overseas supply is affected by smelting profit and declines, while consumption remains relatively strong. There is a risk of inventory shortage due to continuous inventory depletion. The import and export windows are both closed, and the imbalance between internal and external supply and demand is difficult to resolve in the short term [5][25].

Market Review - The main contract for zinc futures, ZN2509, experienced weak fluctuations during the day and remained stable at night, while London zinc prices increased [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 14, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 45,425 tons and canceled warrants at 32,025 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; total zinc inventory stood at 77,450 tons, down by 1,025 tons [2] - Nexa Resources announced partial temporary production stoppages at its Cerro Pasco complex due to illegal blockades by a minority of the San Juan de Milpo community, affecting annual zinc production of 63,000 to 74,000 tons and lead production of 34,000 to 39,000 tons, with current production guidance unchanged [2] - The mainstream transaction price for Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,475 to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30-20 yuan/ton to the ZN2509 contract [2] Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that market expectations for supply reaching production capacity have been fully priced in, while downstream demand remains relatively strong; thus, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a recommendation to remain cautious [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlighted that the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and many Federal Reserve officials opposed rate cuts in September, leading to a weaker dollar index and renewed pressure on non-ferrous metals; despite disturbances in overseas mining, the overall investment trend remains upward, while domestic mines are resuming production seasonally [3] - The report indicated that domestic zinc market conditions show strong supply but weak demand, with increasing inventories during the traditional off-season; LME canceled warrants remain relatively high, and overseas inventories continue to decrease; thus, zinc prices are expected to run weakly within a reference range of 22,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macro: On July 27, local time, US President Trump announced that the US had reached a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [5]. - Fundamental: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated and consolidated. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and prices dropped significantly on Friday night, showing signs of a potential peak. The fundamentals of zinc have changed little recently, and anti - involution has limited impact on the zinc supply - demand pattern. It is advisable to consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. The supply of zinc ore is becoming more abundant cyclically, with several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad planning to increase production in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC for zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is being transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters have increased their operating rates, postponed maintenance, and the output of refined zinc has marginally recovered. It is expected that the production increase trend in the ore and smelting sectors will continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in total zinc demand, with demand expected to remain stable. Whether a more optimistic or pessimistic view is taken on demand, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - Strategy: In the short - to medium - term, zinc prices have been fluctuating and consolidating after rising due to commodity market sentiment. Anti - involution has limited impact on the medium - to long - term fundamental pattern of zinc. The zinc market is expected to be in surplus this year. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices after the sentiment in the domestic commodity market stabilizes [5]. Group 3: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Production - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal increase in zinc ore supply remains unchanged [6]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of July 25, according to SMM, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $76.25/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Production - According to ILZSG, in May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. Group 4: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side 3.1 Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption - In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [23]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [25]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - In June 2025, China's automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of household appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. Group 5: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, social inventories of zinc have been continuously increasing [30]. 4.2 Spot Premium/Discount - As of July 25, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $1.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [33]. 4.3 Exchange Positions - As of July 18, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 21,052 lots. The weighted open interest of SHFE zinc has recently declined [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].