国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 锌产业链周度报告 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：中东紧张局势升级，关注资金情绪助推 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存累库 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 加工费筑底，供应转向宽松。国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，已有筑底之势， 但进口矿TC继续走低，集中在30美元/干吨以下。国内炼厂面临进口TC与沪伦比值双 低的压力，进口矿冶炼亏损仍然较大，进口矿交易不确定性增加，但考虑3-4月为国 产锌矿集中复产期，后续锌矿供给预计转向宽松。此外，参考百川盈孚最新排产数据， 3月份锌冶炼厂排产环比增 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：现实面不弱，价格相对抗跌 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧减量持续。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中30-50美元/干吨，原料库存充裕下，预计后续加工费底部企稳；根据百川盈孚初步 统计，2月冶炼排产环比下降5.68万吨左右，主要为云南、广西、内蒙古、四川和湖 南等地小厂春节停产放假减量，供应减量下节前累库或低于预期。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工环比下滑，节前订单不及预期，市 场对于高价货源接受程度有限。各行业整体放假节点较往年明显提前，部分企业已经 提前停产并进入假期 ...

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国锌产量为67.5万吨，同比增长11%；2025年中国锌累计产量 为752.8万吨，累计增长9.3%。 2020-2025年中国锌产量统计图 上市企业：中金岭南（000060），驰宏锌锗（600497），罗平锌电（002114），株冶集团（600961）， 锌业股份（000751），宏达股份（600331），国城矿业（000688），华钰矿业（601020），中色股份 （000758） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国锌精矿行业市场全景评估及发展趋向研判报告》 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated at a high level, with the macro - focus on the tariff disputes between Europe, America, and Canada over Greenland. The domestic GDP in 2025 met the 5% growth target, with investment and consumption growth slowing in December. The equity market's high enthusiasm drove the commodity market [3][10]. - Fundamentally, the output of Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo increased slightly, while that of Antamina mine decreased. Due to the unstable situation in Iran, the overall overseas zinc ore supply might be lower than expected, and the zinc ore processing fee could not improve significantly, strengthening the support for zinc prices. However, high zinc prices and strong by - product prices repaired smelter profits, leading to increased refined zinc supply and supply pressure [3][10]. - On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted, and the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. But terminal orders were still weak, and many enterprises planned to have an early Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of some alloy and hardware factories decreased, and the recovery of the zinc oxide operating rate was limited [3][10]. - Overall, the Shanghai zinc market faced a game between long and short factors. The weak pattern of increased supply and weak consumption suppressed zinc prices, but the cost - side support was strengthened. In the short term, the Shanghai zinc price would mainly fluctuate around the macro - level, and it was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation trend. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and tariff disturbances [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 16th Jan | 23rd Jan | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 24,750 | 24,585 | - 165 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3207.5 | 3269 | 61.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.72 | 7.52 | - 0.20 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76,311 | 73,151 | - 3160 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 106,525 | 111,500 | 4975 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.92 | 11.88 | 0.04 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 40 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc futures price first declined and then rebounded. Affected by Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, market risk - aversion increased, and non - ferrous metals were under pressure. After the tariff disturbance eased, the market sentiment recovered, and the zinc price rebounded. The weekly decline was 0.67%. The LME zinc price rebounded, with a weekly increase of 1.87% [5]. - In the spot market, downstream procurement became more cautious as the price rose, and the spot premium first increased and then decreased. As of January 23rd, the LME zinc inventory increased by 4975 tons to 111,500 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 3160 tons to 73,151 tons. As of January 22nd, the social inventory was 11.88 million tons [6]. - Macroscopically, the US GDP in Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, but also made a series of tariff threats. The EU held an emergency summit to discuss counter - measures. In China, the GDP in 2025 met the 5% target, but investment and consumption growth slowed in December [7][8][9] 3.3 Industry News - In February 2026, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1400 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous month [12]. - Korea Zinc plans to invest $7.4 billion to expand and renovate the Nyrstar smelter in the US, and it will take 6 - 7 years to process about 600,000 tons of waste containing various metals. The project will start this year and be commercially operational in 2029 [12]. - Teck's zinc concentrate output in 2025 was 565,000 metric tons, and the zinc ingot output of Trail smelter was 229,900 tons. However, the 2026 zinc concentrate output guidance of Antamina mine was lowered [13]. - Variscan is promoting the Novales - Udías zinc project. Pan American Silver's zinc and lead production is expected to increase in 2026 [13]. - From January to November 2025, the global refined zinc market had a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, more than twice that of the same period in 2024 [13]. - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons, a 10.87% month - on - month decrease and a 1.15% year - on - year increase. The imported refined zinc was 8700 tons, a 51.94% month - on - month decrease. The exported galvanized sheet was 1.3891 million tons, a 16.87% month - on - month increase and a 34.82% year - on - year increase [14]. - The Gediktepe sulfide ore expansion project of ACG Metals is expected to start producing copper and zinc in mid - 2026 [14]. - Kipushi mine produced a record 203,168 tons of zinc concentrate in 2025, and the 2026 output guidance is 240,000 - 290,000 tons [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates [16][17][18]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term Shanghai zinc may fluctuate weakly. The short - term market sentiment weakens, and the downstream gradually shuts down before the Spring Festival, so the demand is difficult to improve substantially. The domestic supply remains low, but the export window closes, and the domestic supply - demand margin weakens, so Shanghai zinc lacks upward momentum. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to wait for the signal of the peak - season demand recovery after the Spring Festival. Later, attention should be paid to the export and the start - up situation of the domestic smelting end [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in January was 1200 - 1600 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 49.92 US dollars per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.12 US dollars. Last week, the domestic spot processing fee of zinc concentrate remained at 1300 - 1700 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring was flat; the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 33.25 US dollars per dry ton, a weekly decrease of 4.25 US dollars [2] Fundamental Changes - Supply - In December, the refined zinc output was 552,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. The annual refined zinc output was 6.8336 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.37%. Some domestic mines stopped production in winter, the output of domestic zinc concentrate decreased month - on - month, and the supplement of imported ore was limited. The profit of smelting enterprises without by - products was deeply in deficit, and some enterprises cut production passively. In January, many smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other regions started regular maintenance plans, involving a capacity of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons. The overall maintenance scale was larger than the resumption scale, and the start - up rate decreased. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 8700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London ratio improved slightly, the refined zinc export profit window closed, and the import loss narrowed [3] Fundamental Changes - Consumption - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of new construction and construction areas in the real estate industry were still negative, and the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales decreased. Last week, the start - up rate of the galvanizing industry was about 54.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.41 percentage points, but significantly lower than the high point in December 2025. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy dropped to 49.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, at a six - month low; the start - up rate of zinc oxide was 57.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 percentage points. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the approaching Spring Festival in the northern region, some enterprises had early holidays, and the start - up rate dropped to 40 - 50%. The southern region was relatively stable, but the overall orders were insufficient. Affected by the relatively high zinc price and weak downstream demand, the procurement willingness of enterprises was low, and the pressure of finished product inventory increased [4] Fundamental Changes - Spot and Inventory - As of the week of January 21, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,200 yuan per ton. The spot price gradually declined this week, and the basis discount of 0 zinc in the Yangtze River spot to the main contract widened to - 150 yuan. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - 40.12 US dollars. As of the week of January 21, the LME inventory was 111,800 tons. The LME inventory continued to rise, and the current inventory had climbed to the average level in recent years. In China, the decline of zinc inventory stopped. As of January 19, the domestic social inventory was 112,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, above the average level in recent years. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,311 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2459 tons [6]

基本面方面，供应端，现有锌价利润刺激矿端投产，增量主要集中在国内。火烧云项目成为影响锌市供 需结构的关键因素，内外原料环境进一步分化，国内冶炼增量潜力大于海外。12月国内部分锌矿山开展 冬季常规检修，锌精矿加工费持续低位，国产矿供应紧张，冶炼厂抢购意愿强烈，部分市场参与者预计 下月国内锌矿加工费将进一步下行。预计2026年一季度TC博弈阶段，不排除出现超预期减产，这或成 为推动锌价上行的催化剂。需求端，1月国内终端企业赶工交付，锌需求有增量预期，沪锌社库连续七 周下降。截至12月31日，上期所库存数据显示，沪锌周度库存续降3170吨至69793吨，创4个月新低，为 锌价提供支撑。但终端消费表现平淡，锌锭出口窗口或偶有开启，进口窗口开启难度较大，且国内地产 疲软制约镀锌、压铸锌消费，目前增长仍依赖外销订单。海外需求在降息预期及基建投资支撑下有望温 和复苏。今日现货市场成交温和上升，持货商高报升水出货，下游按需入场，交投平稳，整体活跃度一 般。 综合来看，锌价反弹仍存压力，短期或仍受宏观面主导，预计沪锌价格核心运行区间在23000 - 24200 元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-566 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, coupled with a surge in oil prices, leading to a rise in zinc prices in both the London and Shanghai markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London zinc prices rose by 1.2%, closing at $3072 per ton, with a trading volume of 13,235 lots, a decrease of 7,726 lots [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures opened higher and experienced wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 23,065 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan, or 0.61% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc concentrate production in November was 311,400 tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons from October, as some northern mines entered a winter production cut phase [2]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global zinc ingot production of 1,192,800 tons and consumption of 1,219,600 tons by October 2025, indicating a supply shortage of 26,700 tons [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic zinc ingot inventories have been continuously declining, with a weekly decrease of 12.34%, reaching the lowest level in three and a half months [2]. - Despite the seasonal slowdown in demand, the current market shows strong support for zinc prices due to ongoing inventory depletion and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2].

Report Title - Zinc: Consumption Weakens, Upward Pressure Remains [1] Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market faces a situation where consumption is turning weak, and there is still upward pressure on prices. The market is influenced by factors such as the supply and demand of zinc ore and refined zinc, as well as inventory changes. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - **Supply and Demand in the Industry** - **Mine End**: Recently, northern mines have gradually entered seasonal shutdowns. Although domestic smelters have reduced production, the shortage of zinc concentrate persists, and processing fees continue to decline. The import loss of zinc concentrate has continued to widen this week, and smelters mainly purchase domestic zinc ore. The trading of imported zinc concentrate in the market has been relatively quiet this week. Currently, the quotes for ordinary zinc concentrate are mostly around $50 - $60 per dry ton. Although the decline rate of imported zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, the overall trend is still downward. [5] - **Smelting End**: In December, some domestic smelters will increase production to meet the annual production target, and the commissioning of Kunlun Zinc Industry will also contribute to the output. However, considering the continuous decline in processing fees, which compresses the profits of smelters to a certain extent, smelters with higher marginal costs have turned into losses. In December, domestic smelters may have low production enthusiasm due to profit or loss issues, and the monthly output may decline compared to the previous month. [5] - **Consumption**: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [5] - **Inventory Data**: As of December 4, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons compared to November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to December 1. [5] - **Price Trend**: Recently, due to the expected production cuts by smelters, Shanghai zinc has been running strongly. This week, zinc prices have risen rapidly due to the influence of the capital side. However, considering that the expected production cuts by smelters have basically been digested, domestic consumption is weakening, and the export window is closed, there is still upward pressure on Shanghai zinc prices. [5] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Profitable long positions should be closed. Aggressive investors can try short positions at high prices with a light position, while conservative investors are advised to wait and see. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of domestic smelters. [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [5] Chapter 2: Market Data - The content mainly lists some market data indicators, including spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas (LME cash - 3M), absolute prices and monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided. [7][13][16] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Production** - In January - September 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 9.3609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 659,100 tons or 7.57%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 6.2959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 518,100 tons or 8.97%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 141,000 tons or 4.82%. [26] - In October, domestic zinc concentrate production was 330,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 323,900 tons. [26] - **Inventory** - As of November, according to SMM data, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters has increased by 0.48 days compared to the same period last year to 20.8 days, but the raw material inventory of smelters has been decreasing month by month recently. [26][41] - According to SMM data, the inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports has decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 300,000 tons. [26] Zinc Ore Import - In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 4.3489 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In October, the top three countries of origin for imports were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%). In November, on one hand, some zinc concentrates affected by periodic shipments may arrive in a concentrated manner, and the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to recover; on the other hand, since October, although the internal - external price ratio is still poor, the winter storage demand of smelters is strong, and the processing fees of domestic zinc concentrate have dropped rapidly. Some smelters have started to purchase imported zinc concentrate to ensure raw materials, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in November is expected to recover compared to October. [28] Domestic Zinc Ore Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected decrease in the import of zinc concentrate. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrate in November may decrease. [40] Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In November, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,000 yuan per ton. On December 5, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was reduced by 200 yuan to 1,850 yuan per metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was reduced by 3.5 dollars per dry ton to $57.75 per dry ton. [45] Global Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - From January to September 2025, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global refined zinc production was 10.2938 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48,900 tons or 0.48%; global refined zinc consumption was 10.1353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,800 tons or 0.23%. From January to September 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 158,500 tons. From January to September, China's refined zinc production was 5.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.03% or 343,000 tons; overseas refined zinc production was 5.0698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% or 294,100 tons. [49] - In September, global refined zinc production was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. In September, global refined zinc demand was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The global refined zinc surplus was 20,300 tons. Among them, China's refined zinc production in September was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.69%; overseas refined zinc production was 565,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.78%. [49] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operation**: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; the operating rate of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the operating rate of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. [52] - **Production**: According to SMM data, in October, SMM's domestic refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month to 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that domestic refined zinc production in November will be 611,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93%. [53] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,800 tons or 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, and the net import of refined zinc in October was 10,300 tons. In December, domestic refined zinc production is expected to continue to decrease. Considering that the export window may open, there is an expected increase in refined zinc exports, which will alleviate the domestic refined zinc surplus to a certain extent. [56][57] Downstream Consumption - The report lists some downstream consumption - related data indicators, including the operating rate of primary processing enterprises (such as galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide), inventory of primary processing enterprises, real estate construction data, land transaction premium rate, real estate sales data, infrastructure investment data, domestic automobile production and export data, and domestic white - goods production data, but no specific data analysis is provided. [60][67][78][82][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, market risk appetite has risen, and the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals has weakened. The raw material end is tightening, TC is prone to fall but hard to rise, some smelters have maintenance arrangements, and there are expectations of production cuts. Although LME zinc inventories continue to rise, the speed is slow, and the back structure has deepened again, providing some support for zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.31% to 22,300 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose by 0.13% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.97% to 3,051 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents various data charts of basis, spread (including spot premium and discount in different regions, differences between contract months), etc., but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [14][16]. 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Pay Attention to the Ingot - End Starting Situation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 302,000 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the US - dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrate procurement before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average value) [34]. - **Profit**: As of December 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,942 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [41]. - **Processing Fees**: Both domestic and imported TC have continued to decline. As of November 28, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate index was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton [42]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production Profit**: Due to the decline in zinc prices and TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to decline. As of December 1, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,952 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot production in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [51]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window has been closed. As of November 28, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [55]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - Up Rate Declines - **Start - Up Rate**: The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 56.54%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and orders were generally flat [62]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and galvanizing enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material inventory. Due to poor demand, downstream purchases were average, and finished - product inventory fluctuated slightly [65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - Up Rate Fluctuates Slightly - **Price**: The prices of die - casting zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,595 yuan/ton [74]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate increased by 0.28 percentage points to 51.3%. Some enterprises increased production during the week, driving a slight increase in the start - up rate. In the terminal market, electronic orders performed well, while real - estate hardware, auto - parts orders, and luggage zipper orders were generally flat or did not meet expectations [77]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and alloy factories replenished inventory when prices were low, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished - product inventory decreased as shipments improved slightly [81]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Zinc Oxide Start - Up Rate Increases Slightly - **Price**: The price of zinc oxide declined. The average price of zinc oxide ≥ 99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton [89]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.12 percentage points to 57.37%. Some enterprises increased production, driving an increase in the start - up rate. In terms of demand, electronic - grade demand was good, the ceramic - grade terminal's goods - taking rhythm accelerated, but enterprise profits were compressed, feed - grade demand weakened, and rubber - grade orders were relatively stable [92]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased. Enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and previous arrivals were put into storage, resulting in an increase in raw material inventory. Some terminal demand slowed down, leading to a slight accumulation of finished - product inventory [95]. 3.6 Decrease in Arrivals, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of November 27, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 140,800 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. Some smelters had maintenance during the week, and the arrivals in Guangdong and Shanghai were relatively small. Coupled with downstream pick - ups, the zinc ingot social inventory declined. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 3,600 tons, unchanged from the previous period [102]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 28, the SHFE inventory was 95,900 tons, a decrease, and the LME inventory was 52,000 tons, continuing to rise [105]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The report presents relevant data charts, but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [106]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from September 2025 to September 2024, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc ingots in each month [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Some high - cost smelters have turned to small losses. Although some smelters are sprinting for the annual task at the end of the year and new production capacity is put into operation, the smelting profit is narrowing and some smelters are actively reducing production due to lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November may be lower than expected. The domestic zinc consumption has entered the off - season. Although there is an expected reduction in supply, there are large differences in the expected export volume. In the short term, Shanghai zinc still has support. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ratio on refined zinc exports. If the export volume is lower than expected, the domestic social inventory may accumulate again [4]. - Trading strategies include going long at low prices on a light - position basis for single - side trading and holding the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: - **Mine end**: Domestic zinc concentrate is still in short supply this week. The processing fees of domestic zinc concentrates in many places continue to decline, with a reduction range of 150 - 300 yuan/metal ton. The loss of imported zinc concentrates has been repaired, and the trading volume in the imported zinc concentrate market has increased recently, but the processing fee continues to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price is reduced by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [4]. - **Smelting end**: The continuous decline of zinc concentrate TC has further compressed the profits of domestic smelters. Some smelters in Northwest and Central China have actively reduced their operating rates due to losses or lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc supply in November may be lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the domestic export volume and frequency [4]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 15.27 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons compared with November 13 and a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with November 17 [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Go long at low prices on a light - position basis. Be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds on zinc prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3.2 Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some data item names such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, etc. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and domestic production**: From January to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate production is 829.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.37 tons or 7.71%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production is 109.76 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.75 tons or 13.14%. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate production is 33.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 32.39 tons [28]. - **Raw material inventory**: As of October, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is 22.1 days, an increase of 5.44 days compared with the same period last year, but it has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [28]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the high demand for zinc ore from smelters, but the loss of imported zinc ore in October continued to expand compared with September. Domestic smelters actively snapped up domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones, and the overall spot trading of imported zinc ore was light. It is expected that the imported zinc ore volume in October may have no room for further increase [30]. - From January to September, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate volume is 400.8 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September 2025, the imported zinc concentrate volume is 50.54 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (3.8 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94% [38]. 3.3.3 Zinc Ore Processing Fee - In November, the monthly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is 3000 yuan/ton. On November 21, the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is reduced by 250 yuan to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [46]. - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 5300 yuan/ton, and the production loss of domestic smelters is about 1420 yuan/ton (excluding by - product benefits). With by - product benefits, smelters have a profit of about 500 yuan/ton [47]. 3.3.4 Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Production - **Global**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc production is 914.82 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 tons or 0.14%; the global refined zinc consumption is 896.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc accumulatively has a surplus of 17.99 tons. In August, the global refined zinc production is 122.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%, and the demand is 117.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, with a surplus of 4.79 tons [51]. - **Domestic**: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises is 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises is 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; that of medium - scale enterprises is 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; and that of small - scale enterprises is 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The SMM China refined zinc production in October increases by 2.85% month - on - month to 61.72 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November will be 61.14 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93% [54][55]. 3.3.5 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September, the cumulative refined zinc import is 25.82 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September 2025, the refined zinc import is 2.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The refined zinc export in September is 0.25 tons, with a net import of 2.02 tons. The main import countries in September are Kazakhstan, Iran, and Australia. The export mainly goes to Southeast Asian countries, and the export volume increases significantly with the opening of the export spot window [58]. - It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in October will still increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the imported zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may slightly increase month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation [59].