AI能像科幻电影中的先知一样预测未来吗？一个名为「Prophet Arena」的全新基准测试，正通过预测真实世界事件来评估AI的「预言」能力。 AI能预测未来吗？ 在《黑客帝国》里，先知能对Neo的未来做出预测。 以ChatGPT为代表的AI，则可以根据过去的语料来「预测下一个Token」。 那问题来了，AI能不能像先知一样，从全世界的杂乱信息里找出蛛丝马迹，准确地预测未来呢？ 比如： AI监管今年能否成为联邦法律？ 美国职业足球大联盟比赛中，谁会获胜？ NBA今年的冠军会是谁？ | 2025年降息次数? | | | | 今年经济衰退? | | 本月鸡蛋价格会上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 吗? | | | 最佳预测: | | | 最佳预测: | | 最佳预测: | | | 精确地2次切割 | | | 开始 | | 高于 0% | | | GPT-5 | | 43% | o3 Mini | 27% | o3 Mini | 90% | | Grok 3 Mini | | 40% | GPT-5 | 19% | GPT-5 ...

Group 1 - Major internet companies in China, including Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi, have launched recruitment campaigns for AI talent for the 2026 academic year, indicating a fierce competition for AI professionals [1][2] - ByteDance's recruitment strategy includes various talent programs such as the Top Seed plan, which focuses on attracting AI researchers through high salaries and substantial resources [1][2][9] - The demand for AI talent is reflected in the significant increase in job offers, with ByteDance opening over 5,000 positions, of which more than 1,200 are directly related to AI [12][15] Group 2 - ByteDance has been increasing its investment in AI, with projections indicating it will lead in AI capital investment among major companies from 2024 onwards [3][8] - The competition for AI talent has led to "sky-high" salaries, with ByteDance reportedly offering annual salaries exceeding 3 million yuan for top talent [9][11] - The recruitment landscape is evolving, with AI positions becoming a distinct category in job platforms, reflecting a growing interest from job seekers in AI-related roles [16][18] Group 3 - The recruitment efforts are seen as a strategic bet on the future, with companies vying for talent that could drive technological breakthroughs [19]

Core Insights - OpenAI's President Greg Brockman discussed the company's approach to achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) in a recent interview, highlighting a significant paradigm shift with the release of GPT-5, which aims to bridge the gap between the GPT series and AGI [5][6][9]. Group 1: Model Development and Learning Paradigms - The transition from text generation to reinforcement learning as a reasoning paradigm is crucial for AGI development, allowing models to learn through trial and error in real-world scenarios [6][15]. - GPT-5 employs a new reasoning paradigm that combines supervised learning with reinforcement learning, enabling the model to generate data during inference and iteratively improve based on real-world feedback [13][14]. - Brockman emphasized that the model's increasing ability to interact with the real world is a key component of the next generation of AGI [15]. Group 2: Computational Resources and Bottlenecks - Brockman identified computation as the primary bottleneck in AGI development, asserting that increased computational power directly influences the speed and depth of AI research and development [16][18]. - The current reinforcement learning paradigm in GPT-5, while more sample-efficient, still requires extensive computational resources to learn tasks effectively [18][20]. - He described computation as a fundamental fuel that transforms energy into potential stored in model weights, driving effective operations [19]. Group 3: Practical Implementation and Agent Development - The ultimate goal of AGI is to integrate large models into the workflows of businesses and individuals, moving beyond theoretical applications [26][27]. - OpenAI aims to package model capabilities into agents that can be audited and controlled, ensuring high levels of reliability and safety [29][30]. - A dual-layer "defense in depth" structure is designed to ensure the controllability of high-permission agents, akin to database security measures [31][32]. Group 4: Future Opportunities and Industry Integration - Brockman believes that significant opportunities lie in embedding existing intelligence into real industry processes rather than creating new flashy models [38][39]. - He advises developers and entrepreneurs to immerse themselves in industry specifics to identify genuine gaps that AI can fill, rather than focusing solely on superficial integrations [40]. - The future of AGI is envisioned as a model manager that combines local models with large cloud-based inference systems for adaptive computation [21][23]. Group 5: Long-term Vision and Challenges - Brockman expressed a vision for a future characterized by multi-planetary living and a truly abundant society, emphasizing the potential of current technologies [42][46]. - He noted that as technology accelerates, the demand for computational resources will grow, highlighting the importance of acquiring and allocating these resources effectively [43][45]. - The real challenge lies in maintaining curiosity and the willingness to explore new fields as AI continues to permeate all industries [48].

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo's stock price has experienced significant volatility, dropping 38% from its peak of $529.05 per share in May 2023, primarily due to backlash against its "AI-first" strategy and the recent demonstration of OpenAI's GPT-5 capabilities, which can create language learning tools from brief prompts [2][8]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - Duolingo, founded in 2011, currently has a market capitalization of approximately $15 billion (about 107.6 billion RMB) [3]. - The company announced a transition to an "AI-first" model, aiming to reduce reliance on contractors and automate processes, which led to the introduction of 148 new language courses, doubling its previous offerings [3]. - Despite public criticism regarding its AI strategy, Duolingo reported a 40% year-over-year increase in daily active users, reaching 47.7 million, and a 24% increase in monthly active users to 128.3 million, with paid subscribers growing by 37% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Financial Impact - Following the announcement of its AI strategy, Duolingo faced backlash on social media, but its financial performance remained strong, with quarterly revenue exceeding expectations, leading to a nearly 30% increase in stock price after the announcement [4][6]. - The introduction of GPT-5 by OpenAI, which demonstrated the ability to create language learning applications, has raised concerns about competition and market positioning for Duolingo, highlighting the risks associated with rapid technological advancements [8][9]. Group 3: Leadership and Future Outlook - CEO Luis von Ahn acknowledged the public confusion surrounding the AI transition and emphasized that the company has not laid off any full-time employees, maintaining hiring levels consistent with previous years [12][13]. - The company is actively engaging its teams in exploring efficient AI usage through weekly activities, indicating a commitment to integrating AI while preserving human roles [12]. - Duolingo's user base continues to grow, with 130 million monthly active users as of June, reflecting a robust demand for its services despite the challenges posed by emerging AI technologies [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of AI-native browsers, particularly focusing on Perplexity's Comet and its competitive landscape with other players like OpenAI and The Browser Company. It highlights the transformative potential of AI in the browser space and the strategic moves by Perplexity, including a $34.5 billion acquisition offer for Google's Chrome [1][6]. Group 1: Comet Overview - Comet is an AI-native browser launched by Perplexity, integrating AI capabilities directly into the browsing experience to enhance user interaction and workflow execution [2][4]. - The AI assistant in Comet allows users to perform complex tasks seamlessly, such as gathering and organizing information based on user commands [2][3]. Group 2: User Retention and Business Model - Perplexity is focusing on user retention rates for Comet, aiming to make it the default browser for most users, which would significantly increase daily request volumes for its search engine [6][7]. - The company is designing a tiered pricing model to cater to different user needs, with free plans for basic functionalities and paid plans for advanced features [8][9]. Group 3: AI Browser Advantages - AI browsers like Comet retain user data locally, enhancing privacy compared to traditional browsers that rely on remote servers [16][17]. - Comet aims to automate workflows and integrate deeply into users' digital lives, positioning itself as a cognitive operating system [10][12]. Group 4: Comparison with Dia - A16z's evaluation indicates that Comet outperforms Dia in search and summarization capabilities, while Dia excels in workflow management and multi-tab coordination [22][26][33]. - Both browsers feature AI assistants that enhance user interaction, but Comet's integration with various applications allows for more streamlined task execution [29][31]. Group 5: Future of AI in Browsers - The article predicts a growing trend of AI agents capable of executing simple workflows, which will become more prevalent in the near future [39][40]. - Memory is identified as a crucial element for unlocking proactive AI capabilities, with browsers serving as ideal platforms for this integration [41][45].

来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】8月18日消息，据路透社报道，OpenAI的现任和前任员工正在考虑向包括软银 集团在内的投资者出售价值近60亿美元的公司股票。这笔潜在交易将使OpenAI的估值从目前的3000亿 美元增至5000亿美元。 据知情人士透露，OpenAI正在与Thrive Capital和A&M合作推进这笔交易。软银、Thrive和Dragoneer Investment Group目前均为OpenAI的投资者。据彭博新闻社此前报道，相关谈判尚处于初期阶段，出售 规模可能会发生变化。 据路透社8月初报道称，得益于ChatGPT的强劲表现，OpenAI今年前7个月的收入翻了一番，年化运营率 达到120亿美元，并有望在年底前达到200亿美元。 OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman表示，公司未来可能会在人工智能基础设施上投入数万亿美元，但具体 资金细节仍在制定中。他透露，OpenAI正在研究新的金融工具以筹集资金，相关计划将超出今年1月宣 布的5000亿美元。（青云） ...

来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】8月18日消息，据timesofindia援引彭博社报道，OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 在接受采访时透露，尽管公司正在推进雄心勃勃的计划，包括投资数万亿美元用于计算基础设 施建设，但他对于公司上市后继续担任首席执行官一职持保留态度。 据外媒透露，OpenAI计划在未来几年内投资数万亿美元用于计算基础设施建设，并探索新的金融工具 来为这一扩张提供资金。这些计划旨在进一步巩固 OpenAI 在人工智能领域的领先地位。 Altman 承认，上市是 OpenAI 发展的一个可能结果，但他也强调，自己可能不是担任上市公司首席执行 官的合适人选。他提到："我确实认为，我们或许有一天会上市，但我不确定自己是否适合担任上市公 司的首席执行官。"（青云） Altman 表示，尽管他负责管理 OpenAI 的多项重要项目，但他认为自己的技能与上市公司 CEO 的要求 不匹配。他指出，上市公司的 CEO 需要具备特定的管理能力和市场敏感度，而他可能不是最合适的人 选。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government has launched a national venture capital guidance fund with a scale of 1 trillion RMB, focusing on cutting-edge technology sectors such as AI, quantum technology, hydrogen energy storage, and biomanufacturing [1] - The financial asset investment company (AIC) equity investment pilot has expanded to 18 provinces, with Guangdong and Hunan leading the establishment of provincial AIC funds [1] - The optimization of exit paths for technology companies includes IPO adjustments, expansion of S fund trials, and accelerated private equity fund share transfers, enhancing capital circulation certainty [1] Group 2 - The global advanced packaging market is expected to reach $57.1 billion in 2025, with China's market growing from $35.1 billion in 2020 to $69.8 billion in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 18.7% [2] - The Chinese electric vehicle sector has seen significant growth, with production and sales reaching 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively in the first half of 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [2] - CATL plans to invest up to 14 billion RMB to establish a core European battery base in Hungary, with an expected annual production capacity of 100 GWh by 2025 [2] Group 3 - Over 40% of the upfront payments exceeding $50 million in BD transactions by multinational pharmaceutical companies have gone to Chinese firms, indicating a strong global presence in the biopharmaceutical sector [3] - Top investment firms such as Sequoia China, Qiming Venture Partners, Hillhouse Capital, and Peakview Capital remain optimistic about the long-term value of the biopharmaceutical industry despite its high-risk nature [3] - The launch of the "Top Venture Capitalists in China" and "Top Venture Capital Institutions in China" lists aims to highlight the strengths of the venture capital ecosystem in China [3]

图片来源： Unsplash OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）计划投入数万亿美元，用于开发和运行人工智能服务所需的基础设施建设。现在他只需要解决如何筹集 这笔巨额资金的问题。 当被问及人工智能初创公司 Perplexity 345 亿美元收购谷歌 Chrome 浏览器的报价时，奥特曼表示 OpenAI 也应该 " 考虑一下 " 。 OpenAI 一位高管此前 曾表示，如果联邦法院命令 Alphabet 旗下的谷歌剥离该浏览器，公司将有意参与竞购。 一个新的科技泡沫 阿尔特曼还表示，他看到了当前人工智能投资热潮与 20 世纪 90 年代末互联网泡沫之间的相似之处。他指出，在这两种情况下， " 聪明人 " 都因新技术而 " 过度兴奋 " 。但他强调，这两项技术都是 " 真实存在的 " ，并最终将对商业世界和社会产生持久影响。 " 投资者整体是否正处于对 AI 过度兴奋的阶段？在我看来，是的， " 阿尔特曼在对话中回答彭博新闻社提问时表示。 "AI 是否是很长时间以来最重要的事 件？我的观点同样是肯定的。 " 阿尔特曼表示 " 整个社会 " 不太可能对 AI 的巨额投资感到后悔，但也承 ...

Lovable 是一家瑞典人工智能初创公司， 7 月份曾以 " 全球增长最快的初创企业 " 自居而引发轰动。其首席执行官表示这一势头仍在持续。 " 我们现在的发展速度甚至更快， "Lovable 联合创始人兼 CEO Anton Osika 在上周 接受彭博电视台采访时表示。 他透露公司每月新增 800 万至 1500 万美元的年化经常性收入，计划到年底实现 2.5 亿美元的总年化销售额，并预计未来 12 个月内将达到 10 亿美元规模。 成立于 2023 年底的 Lovable 是领先的氛围编程服务商之一，为不具备编程知识的用户提供应用和网站搭建工具。作为多家资金充裕的 AI 初创企业之一， 它依托 OpenAI 、 Anthropic 和谷歌的强大模型——同时与这些巨头的直接竞争也日益加剧。 上周， OpenAI 发布了最新 AI 模型 GPT-5 ，这家加州公司宣称该模型能轻松创建网站并调试计算机代码。 Lovable 曾是该模型的早期测试合作伙伴。 图片来源： Lovable Osika 驳斥了 OpenAI 会侵蚀 Lovable 增长空间的观点，指出其公司提供质量保障和安全等任务功能。 " 它能做 ...