Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as In-Line [8]. Core Insights - The report addresses the mismatch in AWS Trainium2/2.5 chip shipments attributed to unstable PCB yield rates, with an expectation of approximately 1.1 million chip shipments in 2025 [1][3]. - Supply chain checks estimate total shipments for the Trainium2/2.5 life cycle (2H24 to 1H26) at 1.9 million units, with a focus on production and consumption in 2025 [2][11]. - The report highlights a significant gap between upstream chip production and downstream consumption, suggesting improvements in yield rates may reduce this gap by 2H25 [6][11]. Upstream - Chip Output Perspective - As of late 2024, 0.3 million units of Trainium2 chips were produced, with a projected total of 1.1 million shipments in 2025, primarily packaged by TSMC (70%) and ASE (30%) [3][11]. - An additional 0.5 million Trainium2.5 chips are expected to be produced in 1H26, bringing the total life cycle shipments to 1.9 million units [3]. Midstream - PCB Perspective - Downstream checks indicate potential shipments exceeding 1.8 million units of Trainium chips, averaging around 200K per month since April [4][11]. - Key suppliers for PCB boards include Gold Circuit and King Slide, which provide essential components for Trainium computing trays [4]. Downstream - Server Rack System Perspective - Wiwynn is identified as a key supplier for server rack assembly, with revenue from AWS Trainium2 servers increasing in 1Q25, aligning with the upstream chip production estimates [5][11]. - The report notes that each server rack can accommodate 32 chips, supporting the projected consumption figures [5]. Component Suppliers - Major suppliers for Trainium2 AI ASIC servers include AVC for thermal solutions, Lite-On Tech for power supply, and Samsung for memory components [10][18]. - Other notable suppliers include King Slide for rail kits and Bizlink for interconnect solutions [10][18]. Future Projections - For Trainium3, shipments are estimated at 650K for 2026, with production managed by Alchip [12][13]. - The report anticipates that Trainium4 will enter small production by late 2027, with a rapid ramp-up expected in 2028 [14].

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Buying and holding companies for the long term is a mindset that every investor should adopt. The goal of long-term investing is to identify the best companies and hold them until they're no longer exceptional, thereby generating a substantial profit along the way. Some stocks have more robust investment cases than others, but one that I particularly like is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).I've got 10 reasons why it's an excellent stock to buy now and hold forever, as it looks like a stellar deal. ...

Core Insights - TSMC reported a 40% increase in half-year revenue, reaching NT$1.77 trillion (US$60.8 billion), driven by strong demand for AI technology [2][5] - The company anticipates record earnings for the year, attributing this to sustained high demand for artificial intelligence [2] - Recent sales growth was influenced by companies stockpiling chips in response to potential tariffs from the US [2][3] Company Performance - TSMC's revenue growth reflects its position as the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, serving major clients like Nvidia and Apple [2] - The company expects continued strong performance despite potential impacts from tariffs, indicating resilience in its business model [3] Market Context - The surge in demand for chips is linked to the broader economic reliance on semiconductor technology across various sectors [1] - TSMC's proactive measures, including increased investment in the US and enhanced defense spending, aim to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1][2]. Company Overview: TSMC - TSMC currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance in the market [3][4]. - The stock has shown a price increase of 2.73% over the past week, matching the performance of the Zacks Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry [6]. - Over the last month, TSMC's shares have increased by 7.25%, consistent with the industry's performance [6]. - In the longer term, TSMC shares have risen by 44.83% over the past quarter and 23.49% over the last year, outperforming the S&P 500's gains of 25.34% and 13.06%, respectively [7]. Trading Volume - TSMC's average 20-day trading volume is 9,544,473 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8]. Earnings Outlook - Recent earnings estimate revisions for TSMC have been positive, with two estimates moving higher for the full year, raising the consensus estimate from $9.19 to $9.44 over the past 60 days [10]. - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also increased, with no downward revisions noted [10]. Conclusion - Given the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, TSMC is positioned as a strong buy candidate for investors seeking short-term opportunities [12].

Oliver Rodzianko is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Invictus Origin, a pioneering high-alpha investment company launched in May 2025 that is on trajectory to deliver among the highest annual returns in the world. Invictus Origin is developing innovative portfolio strategies, notably through its flagship High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio (also known as the Invictus Hydra Portfolio), strategically designed to sustainably and significantly outperform leading indices, including the Nasdaq-100. Distinct ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential in China's AI semiconductor sector, with a forecasted capital expenditure increase of 62% year-over-year to RMB 373 billion for the top six companies [19]. - TSMC's revenue guidance for Q3 2025 indicates a potential growth of approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter in USD, but a decline of 1.6% in TWD [12]. - The report anticipates that China's local GPU market will significantly expand, with local GPU revenue projected to reach RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in SMIC's leading node capacity [33]. Summary by Sections Valuation Comparison - TSMC's target price is set at 1,288 TWD, representing a 19% upside potential, with an estimated P/E ratio of 23.9x for 2024 [8]. - The average EPS growth for the semiconductor sector is projected at 40% for 2024, with a mean P/B ratio of 2.3x [8]. - The memory segment shows a notable upside potential for Giga Device, with a target price of 145.0 CNY, indicating a 20% upside [9]. TSMC Preview - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue is estimated at NT$ 910 billion, with a gross profit of NT$ 508 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 35.1% [12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 55.8%, while the operating margin is projected at 45.5% [12]. China AI Semiconductor Demand - The report projects that China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027, indicating a strong trend towards domestic production [28]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI in China is expected to reach USD 48 billion by 2027 [30].

Last time I called Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, aka TSMC (NYSE: TSM ), a Buy, it was doubling down on the company's perspectives on fundamentals, in spite of the macro overhang and the chaos brought to markets byI'm a full-time analyst and portfolio manager of a technology fund with 5 years of experience. I graduated in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and École Centrale de Lyon (France). I'm currently licensed by the Brazilian Securities C ...

Market Sensitivity to Tariffs - Emerging and frontier markets are sensitive to new tariff announcements, with Japan facing domestic pressure due to an upcoming election [1][2] - US is a crucial market for Asian countries, limiting their options in trade negotiations [3] - The US President hopes ongoing negotiations will be successful [4] Impact of a Weaker Dollar - A weaker dollar negatively impacts foreign investors with $17 trillion invested in US equities, particularly those denominated in Euro, Yen, Taiwanese dollar, or Singapore dollar [6] - From April 2011 to two years prior to the discussion, the US dollar index increased by 55%, but has since fallen by 20% [5] - The dollar's depreciation is causing losses for foreign investors, even if the S&P 500 is performing well [6] - Some money is flowing out of US equities from non-US investors and back into growth stocks, especially in Asia's tech sector [7] Potential Winners and Strategies - The US President aims to bring jobs back to America through tariffs [8] - Asian automakers have already moved some production to the US [9] - South Korean semiconductor producer SK Hynix might build a factory in the US, similar to TSMC [9] - The US is the largest exporter of services globally, requiring caution in trade actions to avoid affecting US companies selling services like software, finance, and intellectual property [10] - The current trade war is focused on goods, and the US President is navigating to prevent it from expanding into a services trade war [11]

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing capital expenditures driven by the generative artificial intelligence boom, with potential for its stock to reach around $380 in the coming years [2][10]. Group 1: Market Trends and Growth Potential - Capital spending on advanced chip manufacturing equipment is expected to nearly double from 2023 to 2028, with global expenditures anticipated to exceed $100 billion in 2025 [3]. - The company has experienced a robust annual revenue growth rate of 13% over the last five years, with projections of reaching $29 billion in FY'25, and potential growth to approximately $53 billion by FY'28, representing an increase of roughly 81% [4][9]. - The surge in generative AI is driving a significant increase in semiconductor demand, necessitating advanced manufacturing processes for AI chips, which Applied Materials specializes in [5]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Applied Materials serves major clients such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, positioning it as a central player in both the logic and memory sectors of the chip market [3]. - The company has a considerable exposure to China, which accounted for over a third of its revenue in FY'24, but recent trade agreements may improve access to this essential growth market [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The adjusted net margins of Applied Materials have increased from 19.6% in FY'19 to 26.5% in FY'24, with expectations to rise to approximately 31% by FY'28 due to a focus on new technologies and effective cost management [9]. - If earnings grow by 2.2 times over the next few years, the P/E ratio could stabilize around 18x, potentially doubling the stock price from $190 to roughly $380 [10].