必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the State Council's implementation opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [14][15]. - The green methanol projects in China are primarily concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions, with a planned capacity of 18.37 million tons per year [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and recommends investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36%, while the public utility index fell by 1.25% and the environmental index increased by 0.63% [13][21]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 0.23%, hydropower by 2.06%, and new energy generation by 0.58% [22]. Important Policies and Events - The State Council issued opinions on the national unified electricity market system, targeting a fully operational market by 2030 [14]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans for the 2026 national carbon emissions trading market [15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and regional power companies like Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [18]. - New energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended due to supportive national policies [18]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profits [18]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [18]. - The report suggests focusing on environmental companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings as they enter a mature phase [19]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International (600027.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 9.9 [7]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.75 for 2024A and a PE of 20.5 [7]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 20.0 [7]. - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.55 for 2024A and a PE of 9.5 [7].

hcdx九丰能源：商发大单落地，九丰特种气体成最大赢家，前瞻布局进入收获期 海南商发披露特燃特气大额招标结果，合计招标2.03亿元，#九丰中标约1.45亿元，覆盖液氧液氮0.93亿（78%占 比）、#液态甲烷0.44亿（独家中标）、氦气850万，成为海南商发2026-2028年度发射任务的最大供应商。 #公司在海南一期产能实现商业应用转化： 高纯液态甲烷2万吨、液氧/液氮各4.8万吨、氦 海南商发披露特燃特气大额招标结果，合计招标2.03亿元，#九丰中标约1.45亿元，覆盖液氧液氮0.93亿（78%占 比）、#液态甲烷0.44亿（独家中标）、氦气850万，成为海南商发2026-2028年度发射任务的最大供应商。 #公司在海南一期产能实现商业应用转化： 高纯液态甲烷2万吨、液氧/液氮各4.8万吨、氦气38.4万方、液氢666 吨，未来将继续投资3亿元扩能二期，可匹配超200发/年的高密度发射，公司市场份额进一步巩固。 #国家队与商业火箭全覆盖： 公司目前已与【航天八院、航天一院、中国商火、天兵科技等】合作，与其他民营 火箭公司亦在接洽中。 #跨区域拓展： 除海南外，公司拓展至山东海阳、甘肃酒泉等其他发射基地的特 ...

1、行情 指数继续小幅波动，市场整体较为无聊的一天。 题材方面，商业航天、太空算力早盘迎来反弹，协鑫能科、双良节能（炸）涨停，海兰信、东方日升、九丰能源、广联航空等大涨； 电力板块发力，南网能源、涪陵电力、赣能股份、闽东电力、运能控股、华银电力、金开新能等集体涨停； 有色板块集体大涨，章源钨业3连板，翔鹭钨业、宝武镁业、东方锆业、中稀有色、厦门钨业、中钨高新、锡业股份、金钼股份、湖南黄金、华 锡有色等先后涨停； 金刚石板块午后突然爆发，沃尔德（20CM）、国机精工涨停，四方达、黄河旋风、力量钻石等跟涨； 此外，稀土、钛白粉、算力、华为昇腾等均有局部强势表现，电子布、PCB、半导体、CPO等跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指收涨0.39%，深成指、创业板指分别收跌0.06%、1.04%，市场超3200股上涨，2000余股下跌，三市成交额近2.5万亿。 2、算力 算力板块今日盘中迎来多次局部拉升。 华胜天成2连板（炸），拓维信息、杭钢股份、烽火通信、利通电子、云天励飞（20CM）涨停； 首都在线、宏景科技、芯原股份、云从科技、顺网科技、海光信息、每日互动等盘中均有大幅走强表现。 截至收盘，算力、算力芯片板块分别收涨2.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bidding results for rocket fuel procurement at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site have been announced, with Jiufeng Energy emerging as the biggest winner, securing contracts totaling approximately 145 million yuan [6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiufeng Energy's stock price rose by 6.55% to 48.99 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.56 billion yuan following the announcement [2]. - Jiufeng Energy's subsidiaries, including Hainan Jiufeng Special Gases Co., Ltd., won multiple contracts, with a total bid amount of approximately 145 million yuan [6][10]. Group 2: Contract Details - Hainan Jiufeng Special Gases Co., Ltd. won the bid for the liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen procurement project with a contract value of 92.65 million yuan [5]. - The company also secured a contract for liquid methane procurement worth 44.30 million yuan [5]. - Guangdong Jiufeng Special Gases Co., Ltd. won a helium procurement contract valued at 8.48 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site is China's first commercial launch site, aiming to enhance the country's commercial rocket launch capabilities [10]. - The site has completed 12 launch missions to date, with plans to conduct over 20 launches in 2026 [10]. - Jiufeng Energy is actively expanding its special gas supply capabilities to meet the growing demand in the commercial space sector [10][11].

证券之星消息，2月27日人民币升值受益板块较上一交易日上涨0.72%，九丰能源领涨。当日上证指数 报收于4162.88，上涨0.39%。深证成指报收于14495.09，下跌0.06%。人民币升值受益板块个股涨跌见 下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日人民币升值受益板块主力资金净流入4.03亿元，游资资金净流入5340.26万元， 散户资金净流出4.57亿元。人民币升值受益板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights that Jiufeng Energy emerged as the biggest winner in the fuel procurement for the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, with a total bid amount of approximately 145 million yuan [2][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - On February 27, Jiufeng Energy's stock price rose by over 8%, closing at 48.99 yuan per share, reflecting a gain of 6.55% and a total market capitalization of 34.56 billion yuan [1][10]. - Jiufeng Energy's subsidiaries won multiple bids, including 92.65 million yuan for liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen, 8.48 million yuan for helium, and 44.30 million yuan for liquid methane [3][12]. Group 2: Industry Context - The Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site is China's first commercial launch site, aiming to enhance the country's capabilities in commercial rocket launches [8][17]. - The site has completed 12 launch missions to date, with plans to conduct over 20 launches in 2026 [8][17]. - Jiufeng Energy is actively investing in special gas projects to support the commercial space sector, having initiated the construction of a special fuel and gas supply project in 2023 [8][17].

消息面上，委内瑞拉石油部已暂停在马杜罗执政期间与私营公司签署的19份石油产量分成合同。据悉， 合同暂停尚未对委内瑞拉的石油和天然气产量造成影响；在合同暂停期间，委内瑞拉国家石油公司仍在 出售这些合同项下生产的原油。委内瑞拉和美国将对合同进行审查，并可能建议撤销部分合同；签署合 同公司的资质也将被评估。此外，美伊局势仍不明朗，地缘局势升温支撑石油价格。 国信证券指出，国内油气对外依赖度较高，国家将海洋能源作为保障能源安全的战略重点，通过税收优 惠降低海洋油气勘探装备进口成本，旨在提升国内油气自主供给能力，保障国家能源安全。进口天然气 在我国天然气供应中扮演重要角色，但价格相对较高，且波动性大。对符合条件的进口天然气按比例返 还进口环节增值税，有助于保障能源安全。 截至2026年2月27日 14:16，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨1.99%，成分股和顺石油上涨 10.00%，水发燃气上涨9.60%，杰瑞股份上涨7.69%，九丰能源，迪威尔等个股跟涨。石油ETF鹏华 (159697)上涨2.16%，最新价报1.46元。 石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天 ...