Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q2 2025 was $21.2 billion, with an operating profit of $1.9 billion and an operating margin of 8.8% [9][30] - Average daily volume in the U.S. declined by 7.3%, while revenue declined by only 0.8% due to strategic actions taken [12][30] - Diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.55 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment revenue was $14.1 billion, down slightly year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Amazon revenue [35] - International segment revenue increased to $4.5 billion, up 2.6% year-over-year, despite a 34.8% decline in the China to U.S. trade lane [41] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue fell to $2.7 billion, down $594 million year-over-year, with healthcare logistics growing by 5.7% [42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. consumer sentiment was near historic lows, impacting the small package market negatively [10] - The China to U.S. trade lane saw a significant drop in volume due to increased tariffs, while trade lanes from China to the rest of the world increased by 22.4% [15][39] - SMBs represented 32% of total U.S. volume, showing a 230 basis point improvement compared to last year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year through efficiency initiatives and network reconfiguration [19][44] - The strategic priority includes growing the international small package business and enhancing healthcare logistics capabilities [16][22] - The company is actively engaging in supply chain mapping assessments to help customers navigate tariff uncertainties [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed concerns about the uncertain macroeconomic environment and its impact on customer demand, particularly for SMBs [24][57] - There is a focus on improving revenue quality and managing the decline in Amazon volume, with expectations for more clarity on tariffs and demand by the end of Q3 [62][64] - The company remains committed to a stable and growing dividend, supported by strong free cash flow [26] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing the largest network reconfiguration in its history, with 155 operations closed and plans for more closures in the second half of the year [44][47] - The attrition rate for employees was lower than expected, impacting cost savings initiatives [59][111] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the lack of guidance a sign that things are worse? - Management indicated that the uncertainty in the market is the reason for not providing guidance, with volume in July showing some improvement but not necessarily indicative of future performance [53][54] Question: What is the outlook for SMBs given the current environment? - Management noted that SMBs are facing challenges due to trade uncertainties and tighter credit conditions, but UPS is helping them navigate these issues through supply chain mapping [86][87] Question: How is the company addressing competition from smaller parcel carriers? - Management emphasized that UPS's end-to-end network and capabilities set it apart from competitors, and the company gained market share despite a competitive environment [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for the second quarter was $21.2 billion, with an operating profit of $1.9 billion and an operating margin of 8.8% [6][26] - Average daily volume in the U.S. declined by 7.3%, while revenue declined by only 0.8% due to strategic actions taken [9][10] - Diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.55 [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Domestic segment revenue was $14.1 billion, down slightly year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Amazon revenue [31] - Average daily volume for Air services decreased by 11.6%, but excluding Amazon, it increased by 1.4% [27] - Groundsaver product volume declined by 23% year-over-year due to pricing actions and a shift in e-commerce volume [17][28] - Healthcare Logistics grew revenue by 5.7%, while UPS Digital, including Roadie and Happy Returns, saw a 26.4% increase in revenue [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The China to U.S. trade lane experienced a 34.8% drop in average daily volume in May and June due to increased tariffs [11][35] - International average daily volume increased by 3.9%, with export volume up by 6.1% year-over-year [34] - The overall U.S. small package market was negatively impacted by low consumer sentiment, leading to a decline in demand [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs by approximately $3.5 billion this year through efficiency initiatives and network reconfiguration [16][41] - The strategic priority includes growing the international small package business and enhancing healthcare logistics capabilities [13][19] - The company is actively engaging in supply chain mapping assessments to help customers navigate tariff uncertainties [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current operating environment is complex and uncertain due to changing trade policies and consumer behavior [21][24] - There is no forward-looking revenue or earnings guidance provided due to the unpredictability of the market [22][46] - The company remains committed to a stable and growing dividend, supported by strong free cash flow [23] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing the largest network reconfiguration in its history, with 155 operations closed and plans for more closures in the second half of the year [41][44] - The attrition rate for employees was lower than expected, impacting cost savings initiatives [56][102] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the lack of guidance a sign that things are worse or just uncertain? - Management indicated that the uncertainty in the market is significant, leading to the decision not to provide guidance [50][51] Question: How do you feel about progress on cost cuts being enough to exit with domestic margins at double digits? - Management expressed confidence in achieving the $3.5 billion cost reduction target but acknowledged challenges with attrition rates and Groundsaver costs [55][60] Question: When do you expect to fully lap the costs on the trade lane shifts? - Management noted that they are adjusting resources quickly to capture growth in other trade lanes, particularly in Southeast Asia [69][70] Question: How does the company view competition from smaller parcel carriers? - Management acknowledged competition but emphasized the unique end-to-end service offering that sets the company apart [76][80] Question: What are the expectations for SMB results and their challenges? - Management highlighted that SMBs are facing challenges due to trade uncertainty and tighter credit conditions, but the company is providing support through supply chain mapping [86][89]

Financial Performance - UPS's revenue for 2Q25 was $21221 million, a decrease of 27% year-over-year compared to $21818 million in 2Q24[22] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $1876 million, down 91% from $2064 million in the same period last year[22] - The non-GAAP adjusted operating margin was 88%, a decrease of 70 basis points compared to 95% in 2Q24[22] - Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $155, a decrease of 134% compared to $179 in 2Q24[22] Segment Performance - U S Domestic revenue decreased by 08% year-over-year to $141 billion[37, 40] - U S Domestic non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $982 million, a decrease of 14% year-over-year[40] - International revenue increased by 26% year-over-year to $45 billion[43] - International non-GAAP adjusted operating profit was $682 million, a decrease of 172% year-over-year[43] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue decreased by 183% year-over-year to $27 billion, primarily due to the divestiture of Coyote[44] Strategic Actions and Outlook - The company expects approximately $35 billion in cost reductions in 2025[27, 48] - Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $35 billion in 2025[51] - Dividend payments are estimated to be approximately $55 billion in 2025, subject to Board approval[51]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 per share, and down from $1.79 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.64% [1] - UPS posted revenues of $21.22 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.77%, but down from $21.82 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, UPS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UPS shares have lost about 19.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.60 on $21 billion in revenues, and $7.05 on $87.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry, to which UPS belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that UPS's stock may underperform in the near future based on current estimates [5][6]

Exhibit 99.2 United Parcel Service, Inc. Selected Financial Data - Second Quarter (unaudited) | | | | Three Months Ended | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | June 30, | | | | | | | | 2025 | | 2024 | | Change | % Change | | (amounts in millions, except per share data) Statement of Income Data: | | | | | | | | | Revenue: | | | | | | | | | U.S. Domestic Package | $ | 14,083 | $ | 14,201 | $ | (118) | (0.8)% | | International Package | | 4,485 | | 4,370 | | 115 | 2.6 % | | Supply ...

Market Trends & Economic Factors - This week's events, including the Fed decision, PPE data, and jobs report, could be an inflection point for stocks trading near records [1] - Markets are pricing in potential weakness in the labor market, despite current strength [4] - Tariffs are now six times higher than when Trump took office, representing the highest levels in post-World War history, which could become an issue [3] - Confidence is returning, leading to increased spending, particularly in CapEx [15] Company Performance & Earnings - UPS stock has been a disaster for 3.5-4 years, cut in half, indicating company-specific problems [5] - Coinbase's upcoming report is crucial given its recent run; strong results are needed to justify valuation [6] - Tech earnings, particularly Google's, are in focus; while Google had a good quarter and guidance, CapEx spending is now viewed with caution [7][8] - Meta's spending on talent and CapEx, coupled with Llama 3's performance, raises concerns about profitability [9][10] - Microsoft's Azure is gaining traction in AI sales due to its OpenAI relationship [11] Bond Market & Yields - The bond market is stubborn, with yields starting to tick up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6] - There will be a level where the market starts to care about bond yields [7]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, where the stock has decreased in 60% of cases with a median drop of -6.5% [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts forecast earnings of $1.57 per share on sales of $20.85 billion for the upcoming quarter, representing a decline from $1.79 per share and $21.82 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year, indicating potential challenges for the company [3] Financial Performance - UPS has a market capitalization of $87 billion and generated $91 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $8.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the past five years, UPS recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring approximately 40% of the time, which drops to 25% when analyzing the last 3 years [7] Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings to guide their strategies [6][8]

Human Interest Stories - The report highlights positive news stories, focusing on individuals spreading joy and love [1] - A UPS driver, Jim, celebrated his retirement after 32 years with a community farewell [2] - Richard Smith and Jan Brandon, after being separated for 50 years, reconnected and got engaged [3] - Pilot Brad Hatchet received a surprise farewell from his family on his last flight after decades of service [4] - NFL athlete Carter Coughlin and his wife, Yasiana Coughlin, announced they are expecting a baby boy [5][6] Themes - The stories emphasize themes of love, gratitude, and reconnection [2][3][4][6] - The report showcases moments of surprise and celebration in people's lives [4][5]

Company Overview - United Parcel Service (UPS) was founded in 1907 in Seattle, Washington, initially as the American Messenger Company, and was renamed United Parcel Service in 1919 to reflect its expanded focus on package delivery [1] Investment Philosophy - The company emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued and promising stocks, focusing on balancing risk and reward, and believes that the best investment ideas are often the simplest [1]

印尼物流市场2024年规模已经达到678亿美元， 有人预测到2033年能涨到1314亿美元， 差不多翻倍，也就是每年差不多能增长6.8%左右。 电商带火了物流 数据显示，现在印尼人越来越爱网购， 2025年当地的电商规模预计要突破1000亿美元，物流需求跟着嘎嘎涨。 特别是第三方物流（3PL），不少企业忙着建智能分拣中心， 比较知名的J&T还在雅加达扩建了2万㎡的仓库，就是为了接住电商的仓配订单。 运输靠公路和海运挑大梁 本土企业和国际巨头争市场 本土的J&T、JNE、SiCepat覆盖了当地93%的区域，J&T在雅加达还试行了"当日达"，占了1/4的市场份额。 国际巨头像DHL、UPS就主攻高端物流，保税仓清关只要12小时，比行业平均快一半。 部分中企也参与了进来，极兔速递（J&T）靠着拼多多、TikTok Shop的订单，占了电商配送3成多的份额，菜鸟也在布局海外仓。 印尼是群岛国家，物流全靠公路和海运撑着。 公路运输占了大部分，但岛屿之间还是只能靠船只， 接近一半的跨境货运都要走海运。 空运虽然增长快，像高端电子产品、医药这些急货靠它，但成本高，只能算备选方案。 最让他们头疼的是铁路，现在就爪哇、苏门答 ...