Group 1 - The article discusses Teck Resources (TECK) and previously assigned a hold rating due to concerns over shrinking margins and high operating costs, which accounted for approximately 77% of revenue [1] - The author emphasizes a focus on uncovering high-upside opportunities in overlooked sectors, particularly small-caps, energy, and commodities [1] - The investment strategy is based on the CAN SLIM framework, incorporating fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue, along with macroeconomic filters [1] Group 2 - The author utilizes econometric tools like GARCH and Granger causality to analyze risk and volatility, aiming to understand how macro data influences market cycles [1] - The article indicates that the author has been managing personal capital since 2020 and advising under MiFID II regulations [1] - The focus is on identifying market discrepancies where the narrative does not align with the underlying numbers [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses Teck Resources (TECK) and previously assigned a hold rating due to concerns over shrinking margins and high operating costs, which accounted for approximately 77% of revenue [1] - The author emphasizes a focus on uncovering high-upside opportunities in overlooked sectors, particularly small-caps, energy, commodities, and special situations [1] - The investment strategy is based on the CAN SLIM framework, incorporating fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue, along with price-volume confirmation and macroeconomic filters [1] Group 2 - The author utilizes econometric tools like GARCH and Granger causality to analyze risk, volatility, and the influence of macro data on market cycles [1] - The approach involves building conviction across technicals, fundamentals, and catalysts rather than relying on a single signal [1] - The author has been managing personal capital since 2020 and advising under MiFID II, holding a bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Economics, and currently pursuing a master's in Finance [1]

Group 1: Merger of Teck Resources and Anglo American - The Canadian federal government has approved the merger between Teck Resources Limited and Anglo American, forming a new company called Anglo Teck [1] - The merger was agreed upon by both companies on December 9, and Anglo Teck will focus on becoming a global player in critical minerals [1] - Anglo Teck has committed to invest $4.5 billion in Canada over the next five years [1] Group 2: MNP's Expansion in Quebec - Professional services firm MNP is expanding in the Lanaudière region of Quebec by merging with Boisvert et Chartrand, a chartered professional accounting firm [2] - The merger will be effective from January 1, and will increase MNP's presence to 36 offices in the province [2] - Following the expansion, MNP will have a total of 234 partners and over 1,500 team members in Quebec [2]

Industry Overview - Selected metals, including gold, silver, and copper, experienced a breakthrough year with some of the best performances in history, prompting exploration of junior companies with strong assets and M&A potential [1] Northisle Copper and Gold - Northisle Copper and Gold Inc. is developing the North Island Project, a 34,000-hectare copper-gold porphyry district on northern Vancouver Island, featuring several large porphyry centers [2] - The project hosts 6.9 million ounces of indicated gold and 3.1 billion pounds of indicated copper, with potential for further resource growth if certain centers are confirmed as part of a larger system [3] - The 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlines a 29-year mine life, average annual production of about 157 million pounds of copper equivalent, an after-tax NPV of $1.5 billion at a 7% discount rate, and a 29% IRR based on conservative commodity assumptions [4] - Key milestones for 2026 include an integrated resource update in Q2 and a pre-feasibility study in Q4 [5] Cassiar Gold - Cassiar Gold Corp. focuses on the Cassiar Gold Property in northern BC, Canada, which includes the Taurus deposit and a high-grade historic vein camp [6] - In 2025, Cassiar reported an updated NI 43-101 resource of approximately 410,000 ounces of gold in the Indicated category and 1.93 million ounces in the Inferred category [7] - The 2025 drilling campaign expanded to ~7,300 meters, demonstrating extensions of mineralization and new targets [8] - Cassiar has strong potential for cash flow in a gold bull market due to existing infrastructure and low capex, making it an attractive M&A target [9] - Near-term catalysts for M&A interest include further resource growth beyond ~2.3 million ounces and continued high-grade discoveries [10] Silver One Resources - Silver One Resources is focused on silver exploration with a portfolio of assets in Nevada and Arizona, including the Candelaria mine and Phoenix Silver [11] - The Candelaria technical report outlines 108 million silver-equivalent ounces in Measured & Indicated and 29 million in Inferred resources [12] - Work in 2025 at Phoenix Silver identified high-grade native silver targets, with drill intercepts of about 3,800 grams per metric ton [13] - The company is developing a proprietary non-cyanide leaching technology that could significantly improve recovery efficiency, projecting a potential recovery of 30 million ounces of silver from heap leach pads [14][15] Canterra Minerals - Canterra Minerals focuses on critical minerals and gold in central Newfoundland, owning the Buchans Critical Minerals Project and the Wilding Gold Project [17] - In 2025, Canterra conducted a 10,000-meter drilling campaign at Buchans, returning strong copper-equivalent grades [18] - Wilding's 2025 fieldwork recorded its highest-ever gold sample, with a new drilling program scheduled for Q4 2026 [19] - Canterra is well-funded for continued exploration into 2026, with a recent $5.7 million financing [19] - If Canterra can demonstrate a large gold resource at Wilding, it could become a logical acquisition target for Equinox [20][21]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is facing a structural contradiction between supply contraction and demand expansion due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and industrial upgrading [1] Group 1: Domestic "Anti-Competition" Policies - The domestic "anti-competition" policy aims to actively reduce ineffective supply and upgrade the industry structure rather than merely shrinking capacity [1] - Since the initiation of supply-side reforms in 2015, policies have been implemented to reshape the industry ecology through a combination of prohibiting new capacity, clearing illegal operations, and enforcing environmental regulations [2] - The optimization of the supply structure for core products like copper and aluminum has reduced supply elasticity, laying a foundation for price stability [2] Group 2: Overseas Trade Barriers - Global trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have increased the difficulty of resource acquisition in the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - Policies in the U.S. and Europe have raised cross-border trade costs, with shipping costs for copper from Chile to China increasing by nearly 40% over five years, leading to a more than 15% increase in end-user prices [3] - Resource-rich countries are tightening supply, with Indonesia banning nickel ore exports and Mexico nationalizing lithium mines, contributing to a 25% increase in the global cobalt supply gap and a 37% monthly rise in cobalt prices [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory in Europe has significantly decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 14,475 tons by December 17, 2025, indicating tight supply conditions [3] - In contrast, COMEX copper inventory has risen from under 100,000 short tons to 456,900 short tons during the same period, highlighting a shift in global copper liquidity towards the U.S. [3] - Domestic copper inventory has also dropped to around 110,000 tons by the end of 2025, reflecting reduced supply elasticity under the "anti-competition" policy and increased difficulty in acquiring overseas resources [4] Group 4: Resilient Demand and Emerging Fields - The demand for non-ferrous metals remains robust, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors [5] - The traditional power sector benefits from ongoing investments in the power grid, maintaining stable demand for metals like copper and aluminum [5] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and renewable energy are driving significant demand growth for non-ferrous metals, while high-end fields like semiconductors and military applications are experiencing rigid demand increases [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The pricing logic for non-ferrous metals is being reshaped due to ongoing supply constraints, with prices expected to maintain solid support [5] - The non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) tracks the non-ferrous metals index and has reached a new high in scale at 4.399 billion yuan and 2.172 billion shares, reflecting strong investor interest [6] - The non-ferrous ETF has seen continuous net inflows totaling 1.385 billion yuan over the past 23 days, indicating a growing appetite for investment in this sector [6]

Core Insights - The global diamond industry is facing significant challenges due to weak demand, competition from lab-grown diamonds, and geopolitical tensions [1] Company Performance - De Beers, the largest diamond miner, reported a substantial revenue decline, accumulated approximately $2 billion in unsold natural diamonds, and announced plans to reduce its workforce by over 1,000 jobs [2] - Alrosa, a major Russian diamond producer, experienced a nearly 80% drop in profits and suspended operations at key sites, although it managed to end the year in a better position than anticipated [3] Market Dynamics - Lab-grown diamonds, which are chemically and visually identical to mined diamonds, are increasingly influencing consumer behavior and driving down prices for natural diamonds [4] - The rise of synthetic stones has prompted De Beers to shift its strategy, abandoning its Lightbox lab-grown jewelry brand to focus on marketing mined diamonds [5] Regional Impact - Botswana, the leading natural diamond exporter in Africa, has been severely affected, with significant sales declines leading to production cuts and rising unemployment [6] Consumer Trends - Analysts attribute the market disruptions to changing consumer preferences, an oversupply of lab-grown diamonds, and a slowdown in the luxury market in China [7] - Despite recent softening in lab-grown diamond prices, industry leaders believe that rebuilding confidence in natural diamonds will require ongoing branding efforts and strategic collaboration [7]

Core Insights - USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) and Teck Resources Limited (TECK) are key players in the mining industry, focusing on minerals essential for electrification and clean energy technologies [1][2] Group 1: USA Rare Earth (USAR) - USAR is advancing its Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, aiming for commercial production of Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets by early 2026 [3][4] - The company has increased its cash balance to over $400 million through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, which will be used to upgrade the Stillwater plant and expand production capacity to approximately 1,200 metric tons [5][6] - Despite a promising project pipeline, USAR is still in the exploration stage and has not yet generated revenues, leading to continued losses and rising operational expenses, with Q3 2025 selling, general, and administrative expenses reaching $11.4 million [7][8] Group 2: Teck Resources (TECK) - TECK is undergoing a strategic transformation through a merger with Anglo American, which will enhance its copper production capacity to 1.2 million tons annually, projected to increase to 1.35 million tons by 2027 [9][10] - The merger is expected to generate approximately $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies within four years, with significant operational efficiencies anticipated [11] - TECK's long-life assets and growth projects, despite temporary production impacts at Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley Copper, position the company for stronger cash flow and lower execution risk [24][25] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for USAR's 2025 bottom line is a loss of 65 cents per share, while TECK's estimate is a profit of $1.44 per share [14][15] - In the past six months, USAR's shares have risen by 10.5%, while TECK's stock has surged by 17.1% [17] - USAR is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of negative 33.28X, compared to TECK's forward earnings multiple of 27.46X [19]

Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources Limited's merger with Anglo American plc has received approval from the Supreme Court of British Columbia, moving the deal closer to completion with only customary closing conditions remaining [2][11] Merger Details - The merger agreement aims to create the Anglo Teck group, positioning it as a leader in global critical minerals, which is expected to be attractive to shareholders of both companies [3] - Teck Resources' shareholders approved the merger in early December [3] Company Profile - Anglo Teck will have over 70% exposure to copper and is projected to be among the top five global copper producers, with a portfolio that includes six world-class copper assets and premium iron ore and zinc operations [4][11] - The combined annual copper production is expected to increase from 1.2 million tons to 1.35 million tons by 2027, representing a 10% growth [5] Economic Impact - The merger is projected to inject C$4.5 billion (approximately $3.25 billion) into Canada's economy over five years, including investments in extending the life of the Highland Valley Copper Mine and enhancing critical minerals processing capacity [6] - The company plans to invest in new copper mines in Northwestern British Columbia and focus on critical minerals exploration and job creation [6] Synergies and Financial Projections - The merger is expected to generate $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies within four years, with 80% of this achieved within two years through economies of scale [8] - An additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA synergies is anticipated from 2030 to 2049 through operational integration of adjacent assets [8] Ownership Structure - Post-merger, Teck Resources will hold 37.6% of Anglo Teck, while Anglo American will retain 62.4%, with each Teck share exchanged for 1.3301 Anglo American shares [9][11] Stock Performance - Teck Resources' stock has increased by 1.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 31.9% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].

Corporate Governance - HSBC CEO focuses on accountability [1] Mergers and Acquisitions - Anglo shareholders approve Teck merger [1]