三季报解读&Q4 需求强势上行 20251102 摘要 2025 年第三季度，航空业受益于旺季需求扩张，整体修复趋势强劲。 国航利润低于预期，收入增速最弱；海航扣除汇率影响后增速领先；华 夏航空保持强劲增长，春秋和吉祥航空承压，大行与小行分化明显。 国际航线是 2025 年业绩修复的关键，一季度国际旅客总量超 2019 年 同期。中国航司市场份额提升至 65%以上，受益于国际线扩张。东航在 日韩航线优势明显，吉祥航空通过宽体机投放远程航线，春秋航空通过 运力扩容实现增长。 海航国际线表现强劲，利润释放显著，通过运力结构调整提升单位票价 和收入质量。南航受益于国内旅客量增速领先，业绩表现最佳；国航和 吉祥航空因国内旅客量下滑导致业绩低迷。 各航空公司单位 RPK 收益普遍下降。吉祥航空远程航线投产及国际客占 比提升导致票价上升，但收入总量萎缩。春秋航空票价优势减弱，利润 弹性未能充分释放。华夏航空因市场不同，表观增速无法准确反映真实 情况。 Q&A 近期航空公司三季报的主要表现如何？行业整体情况和个股表现有哪些亮点和 不足？ 根据最新披露的三季报，航空行业在第三季度的营收增速为 2.3%，利润增速 为 5.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [15] Core Insights - The transportation industry shows signs of recovery with various segments experiencing different levels of performance, driven by factors such as fuel cost reduction, normalization of travel demand, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][41] Summary by Sections Aviation - In Q3 2025, listed airlines saw significant improvement in fuel costs, leading to a notable divergence in profitability among carriers. The international growth rate outpaced domestic, with a 19% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 22% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to the same period in 2019 [6][23] - The average fuel price decreased by 11% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for airlines like China Eastern and Southern, while others faced challenges due to maintenance issues [31][37] Airports - Listed airport companies benefited from the normalization of travel, with gradual increases in passenger flow and stable costs leading to improved profitability. For instance, Shanghai Airport reported a 52.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][45][47] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw improvements in franchise profitability, while direct operations faced pressure due to increased strategic investments aimed at solidifying core business foundations. The overall market trend indicated a "weak volume, stable price" scenario [8][49] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics continued to face external pressures, with significant declines in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors. However, cargo airlines maintained relatively stable profits due to fleet expansions [9][10] Bulk Supply Chain - Despite weak domestic demand, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies since July has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability for leading supply chain companies [10] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector showed signs of recovery, with oil and bulk shipping profitability improving. Container shipping, while still under pressure, showed better-than-expected performance due to seasonal demand and easing trade tensions [11][12] Ports - Port operations benefited from increased imports of bulk commodities, leading to year-on-year growth in performance, particularly in dry bulk and container segments [12][45] Highways - The highway sector experienced a recovery in traffic volume in Q3 2025, resulting in positive year-on-year profit growth for major listed companies [13] Railways - Railway passenger and freight demand showed slight growth, with companies diversifying into non-coal freight and logistics services to enhance profitability [14]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' "Air Sister" recruitment initiative aims to empower women aged 25 to 40, particularly those who are married and have children, by offering them opportunities to restart their careers, thus challenging traditional gender norms in the aviation industry [1][2]. Group 1: Recruitment Initiative - The recruitment targets women aged 25 to 40, prioritizing those who are married and have children, which transforms their family experience into a professional advantage [1]. - This initiative is a significant step towards gender equality, allowing women who have taken time off for family to re-enter the workforce [1][2]. - The move is seen as a challenge to the long-standing perception of female flight attendants as primarily young and attractive, thus promoting economic independence and career development for women [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The aviation industry has been criticized for objectifying women, often measuring their worth based on appearance rather than professional skills [2]. - Traditional gender roles persist, with women expected to balance both family and career, leading to increased stress and workload [3]. - The societal expectation for women to fulfill the role of "good wives and mothers" while also succeeding professionally creates a dual burden [3]. Group 3: Societal Changes - The recent global women's summit in Beijing highlighted the need for family-friendly policies that encourage shared domestic responsibilities between genders [3]. - Recognizing the value of domestic labor could provide women with more choices, allowing them to pursue work based on passion rather than necessity [4]. - The shift in societal attitudes towards women's rights is evident in the evolving perceptions of female roles in the workforce, moving towards a more diverse understanding of gender equality [4].

Core Insights - The major domestic airlines in China have collectively turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2025 after five consecutive years of losses, indicating a significant recovery in the industry [1][2][4] - Hainan Airlines leads the profitability among private carriers with a net profit of 2.845 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.93% [3] Group 1: Major Airlines Performance - China Southern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.40% [2] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a net profit of 2.103 billion yuan, successfully turning around from losses [2] - Air China recorded a net profit of 1.870 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.31% [2] Group 2: International Routes as Growth Drivers - International routes have become the core driver of profitability for the three major airlines, with passenger turnover growth significantly higher than domestic routes [2] - Air China's international and domestic passenger turnover growth rates were 14.9% and 1.2%, respectively [2] - China Eastern Airlines reported growth rates of 24.16% for international and 6.08% for domestic routes, while China Southern Airlines had 19.54% and 4.10% respectively [2] Group 3: Private Airlines Performance Disparity - Hainan Airlines topped the profitability chart among private airlines, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines faced profit declines of 10.32% and 14.28%, respectively [3] - Juneyao Airlines experienced a significant drop in third-quarter net profit, decreasing by over 25% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to increased competition in the domestic market, characterized by rising volume but falling prices [3] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Improvement - The overall supply-demand relationship in the civil aviation industry has improved, with a total of 1.51 million flights in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] - Passenger transport volume reached 210 million, up 3.9% year-on-year, with international passenger transport volume increasing by 13.3% [4] - The overall passenger load factor reached 85.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, with domestic routes achieving a record high load factor of 87.3% [4]

Core Insights - The major domestic airlines in China have reported profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years of losses [1][2][3] - Despite the overall recovery, some private airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have experienced declines in performance, indicating challenges in the competitive landscape [1][6][7] Group 1: Airline Performance - The three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) have all achieved profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with Air China reporting a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan [2][3] - China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan respectively, showing a consistent recovery trend [2] - The cumulative losses of these three airlines over the past five years exceeded 200 billion yuan, but signs of recovery are evident as they aim for full-year profitability in 2025 [2][3] Group 2: International Market Focus - The international market has become a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in passenger turnover on international routes compared to domestic routes [4][5] - For instance, Air China's international passenger turnover increased by 14.9%, while China Eastern Airlines saw a 24.16% increase [4] - China Eastern Airlines is expanding its international routes, including a new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, which will set a record for the longest single-route flight [4][5] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines like Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines have reported declines in net profits, with Juneyao's profit down by 14.28% and Spring Airlines down by 10.32% [6][7] - Despite increased flight volumes and passenger numbers surpassing pre-pandemic levels, these airlines struggle with profitability due to lower ticket prices driven by intense competition [7][8] - The average ticket price has decreased significantly, with a reported drop of 8.5% year-on-year from January to September 2025, impacting revenue generation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The major domestic airlines in China have reported profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years of losses, with international markets becoming a key area for growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieved profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with Air China reporting a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan [2]. - China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery from significant losses in the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, the three airlines had incurred losses exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past five years, but signs of recovery are evident in their recent performance [2][3]. Group 2: International Market Growth - The international market has shown a significant recovery, with passenger turnover for international routes increasing at a higher rate than domestic routes for all three major airlines [4]. - For instance, Air China's international passenger turnover increased by 14.9%, while domestic turnover rose by only 1.2% [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has been particularly aggressive in expanding its international routes, recently launching a new route that sets a record for the longest single flight [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have reported declines in profits despite increased revenues, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability [6][7]. - Spring Airlines, once the most profitable airline, has seen its net profit decrease by 10.32% year-on-year, while Juneyao Airlines' profit fell by 14.28% [6][7]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to increased competition and lower ticket prices, which have not translated into higher profits despite higher passenger volumes [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Spring Airlines (601021) [1][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.336 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights that despite a decline in profitability due to falling ticket prices, the company has shown resilience in its operations and cost management [2][5] - The airline's capacity has steadily increased, with a high passenger load factor, indicating strong demand recovery [3][5] Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 6.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while the gross margin and net profit margin showed slight declines [2][3] - The unit revenue per RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometer) decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, reflecting significant pressure on ticket prices [4] Capacity and Load Factor - The total ASK (Available Seat Kilometer) for Q3 2025 increased by 14.1% year-on-year, with domestic and international routes showing growth [3] - The overall passenger load factor for Q3 was 92.5%, slightly down from the previous year but still above pre-pandemic levels [3] Cost Management - The unit cost per ASK decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, benefiting from lower fuel prices and improved fleet utilization [4] - The report suggests that the company is effectively managing its fixed costs, which has contributed to a reduction in overall costs [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in travel demand in Q4, which could lead to improved ticket prices and profitability for the airline [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.409 billion yuan, 3.054 billion yuan, and 3.542 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 26.8%, and 16.0% [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.3% to 2.336 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.167 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters was 16.77 billion yuan, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 revenues of 5.32 billion, 4.99 billion, and 6.47 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 6.0%, and 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Capacity and Load Factor - In Q3 2025, the total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 14.1% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional ASK growth rates of 11.4%, 27.5%, and -26.7% respectively [3]. - The total Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) also rose by 14.0% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional RPK growth rates of 11.6%, 26.3%, and -25.8% respectively [3]. - The overall passenger load factor for Q3 was 92.5%, with domestic, international, and regional load factors of 93.5%, 89.2%, and 91.8% respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - The unit revenue per RPK for Q3 was 0.412 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, while the unit revenue per ASK was 0.381 yuan, also down 7.1% year-on-year, indicating significant price declines in the industry [4]. - The unit cost per ASK for Q3 was 0.290 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.2%, benefiting from lower fuel prices and improved fleet utilization [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for travel is expected to improve in Q4, with favorable oil and exchange rate factors potentially leading to significant performance improvements for airlines [5]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a contraction in supply, which may enhance pricing power and revenue for airlines, including Spring Airlines, which is expected to benefit from resilient pricing [5]. - Profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.409 billion, 3.054 billion, and 3.542 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 26.8%, and 16.0% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 75.50 [1][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an improving industry environment, with a focus on its position as a leading low-cost airline in China. The report highlights the potential for revenue growth driven by increased demand for low-cost travel and improved pricing dynamics in the industry [6][9]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 16.773 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.336 billion, a decrease of 64.69% year-on-year [6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 6.469 billion, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year increase, while the net profit was RMB 1.167 billion, down 6.2% year-on-year [7][8]. Operational Metrics - The company experienced a 14.1% increase in capacity and a 14.0% increase in demand in Q3, with a slight decline in passenger load factor to 92.5%. Domestic capacity growth was notably strong at 11.4% [7]. - The average aircraft utilization in the first half of 2025 was 9.7 hours, below the 11.2 hours recorded in the first half of 2019, indicating room for operational efficiency improvements [9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 20 billion in 2024, RMB 21.059 billion in 2025, RMB 23.774 billion in 2026, and RMB 26.888 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 11.50%, 5.30%, 12.89%, and 13.10% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 2.273 billion in 2025, with an expected EPS of RMB 2.30 [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics including a PE ratio of 22.96 for 2024, decreasing to 14.58 by 2027, and a PB ratio of 3.00 for 2024, decreasing to 2.21 by 2027 [5][10]. - The target price is based on a projected PB of 3.5x for 2026, with a BPS of RMB 21.56 [10].

Core Insights - All listed airlines in A-shares have turned profitable in the first three quarters of this year after continuous losses since the pandemic, with Hainan Airlines becoming the new "profit king" [2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Hainan Airlines reported a net profit of 28.45 billion, surpassing Spring Airlines, which had been the most profitable airline for the past two years [4] - The three major state-owned airlines also achieved profitability in the third quarter, with China Southern Airlines earning 2.307 billion, China Eastern Airlines 2.103 billion, and Air China 1.87 billion [3] - Spring Airlines' net profit decreased by 6.17% year-on-year in the third quarter, and its profit for the first three quarters fell by 10.32% [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in profitability among airlines is attributed to ongoing competition in the domestic aviation market and the slow recovery of the Southeast Asian market [5] - Domestic market ticket prices have been declining, impacting Spring Airlines' competitive edge as full-service airlines have lowered their prices to compete with low-cost carriers [5] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is focusing on regulating market pricing behavior, which may influence ticket pricing and revenue levels during the off-peak season [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fourth quarter's performance will be crucial for airlines to maintain profitability, as it traditionally marks the off-peak season [6] - Despite the off-peak season, there is a noticeable increase in business travel demand and cultural events supporting passenger flow [7] - The CAAC is collecting data from airlines to monitor costs and ensure fair competition, indicating a shift towards a more structured market environment [8]