即时点评 算力增长助力终端应用快速高质发展 英伟达(NVDA.O) 2024-03-20 星期三 事件： 重要数据 2024.03.20 英伟达 2024 GTC AI 大会于美东时间 3 月 18 日周一拉开帷幕，这是英 伟达时隔五年首次年度线下 GTC。当地时间周一下午，英伟达创始人 兼 CEO 黄仁勋在美国加州圣何塞 SAP 中心进行主题为"面向开发者 SOX -0.94% 收盘价($) 893.98 总市值($亿) 22,350 PE(TTM) 75.1 新的工业化将创造更广阔的市场： 指标 数据 道琼斯指数 +0.83% 标普 500 指数 +0.56% 纳斯达克指数 +0.39% 的 1#AI 峰会"演讲，黄仁勋发布了运行 AI 模型的新一代芯片和软件， 并正式推出 Blackwell 新一代 AI 图形处理器（GPU），算力更强、耗 能更低，预计将在今年晚些时候发货。 PE(2025E) 39.3 换手(%) 2.69 黄仁勋表示我们正在经历一次新的工业化，所有的数据中心都要进行 数据来源：Wind、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 更新，在未来几年能创造 1 万亿美元的市场规模。所有的人工智能市 场的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting total returns over the next 12 months to exceed the relevant industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the positive sentiment towards artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to continue, with the company's valuation still at historical lows. It predicts strong growth in the data center business for 2024, with quarter-on-quarter increases expected [1]. - There are mixed opinions among clients regarding the demand for AI acceleration chips in 2024, with some expressing skepticism about sustainability, while others agree on strong demand but lack visibility for 2025. Optimistic forecasts suggest a potential 20% upside in Non-GAAP EPS for the year [2]. - The report anticipates that the data center business will continue to grow by over 20% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in chip demand in mainland China and advancements in product technology [8]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Demand - The report highlights that the market's enthusiasm for AI will not diminish, with a focus on the entire hardware supply chain, not just the company itself. Recent market reactions indicate that the demand for AI-related hardware may be underestimated [9]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company is expected to launch new products, such as H200 and B200, in the second and fourth quarters of this year, which may further enhance demand for computing power. The report notes that the demand for AI capabilities is becoming increasingly diverse and persistent [8]. Client Feedback and Perspectives - Client feedback is categorized into three main views regarding 2024 and 2025 chip demand, ranging from skepticism to strong agreement on growth, with a notable focus on the supply chain's readiness for new products [2].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03 月 19 日 英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA） GTC 大会发布最新计算平台 Blackwell，持续引领 AI 行业变革 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-----------|-----------|------------|------------|------------|----------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 26,974.00 | 60,922.00 | 122,952.78 | 167,191.19 | 215,241.94 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 0.22 | 125.85 | 101.82 | 35.98 | 28.74 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [15][17]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY24Q4 revenue reached $22.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 265% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%, exceeding the previous guidance of $20 billion [1]. - The company's GAAP net profit for FY24 was $29.76 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of $12.839 billion [1]. - The data center business saw significant growth, with FY24Q4 revenue of $18.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 409% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 27% [12]. - The gaming segment generated $2.9 billion in FY24Q4 revenue, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 56% [3]. - The professional visualization business achieved FY24Q4 revenue of $463 million, a year-over-year increase of 105% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue totaled $60.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 126% [1]. - The next quarter's revenue guidance is set at $24 billion, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 76.3% and 77%, respectively [4]. Business Segments - **Data Center**: Revenue for FY24Q4 reached $18.4 billion, driven by generative AI and large language models [12]. - **Gaming**: FY24Q4 revenue was $2.9 billion, supported by the new GeForce RTX™ 40 SUPER series GPUs [3]. - **Professional Visualization**: FY24Q4 revenue was $463 million, benefiting from the RTX Ada architecture [2]. - **Automotive**: FY24Q4 revenue was $281 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% but an annual increase of 21% [13]. Market Trends - Strong demand for AI is noted, with over 40% of data center revenue coming from AI inference [2]. - The transition from CPU to GPU dominance in recommendation systems is highlighted [2]. - Anticipation for the GTC conference and the B100 product launch, which is expected to significantly enhance AI computing performance [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts NVIDIA's revenue for CY2023-2025 to be $59.3 billion, $117 billion, and $138.7 billion, respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of $27.8 billion, $52.6 billion, and $82.3 billion [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.O) [1][3][26] Core Insights - Nvidia reported a significant revenue increase of 265% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter for Q4 FY2024, with total revenue reaching $22.1 billion. GAAP net profit surged by 769% year-over-year to $12.29 billion, while Non-GAAP net profit increased by 491% to $12.84 billion [1][19] - The gaming segment showed strong performance with revenue of $2.98 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, marking the highest in seven quarters. The launch of the GeForce RTX 40 SUPER series GPU at CES 2024 is expected to further enhance product offerings [2][18] - The data center segment experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 409% year-over-year, reaching $18.4 billion, driven by strong demand for AI acceleration and new product launches [18][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2024, Nvidia's total revenue was $60.92 billion, a 126% increase year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $29.76 billion, up 581%, while Non-GAAP net profit reached $32.3 billion, a 286% increase [1][19] - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for GAAP and Non-GAAP net profit of 40% and 37.8% respectively over the next three years, supported by Nvidia's leading position in the AI GPU market and continuous product innovation [3][26] Business Segments - The data center segment is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach $98.38 billion in FY2025, reflecting a 107% growth rate [7] - The gaming segment is anticipated to recover, with a projected revenue growth of 15.22% in FY2025, driven by new product launches and improved average selling prices [25][26] Market Position and Future Outlook - Nvidia's strong market position in AI GPUs, coupled with a robust software ecosystem, provides a competitive edge. The upcoming GTC 2024 summit is expected to unveil new products that could further catalyze stock performance [18][19][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) [9] Core Views - NVIDIA is the best-performing S&P 500 component in 2023 and 2024 YTD, driven by the rapid rise in demand for generative AI-related accelerator chips [1] - The market may not fully appreciate the long-term benefits of generative AI for NVIDIA, and the company's data center business is expected to maintain strong performance through 2025 [1][12] - NVIDIA's valuation remains at historical lows, with a forward P/E of 35x compared to the historical average of 45x [2] - The company's product iteration is accelerating, further solidifying its competitive position, especially with the upcoming release of H200 and B100 AI data center accelerator chips in 2024 [6][8] Financial Projections - FY1Q25E revenue is projected at $25.18 billion, above the company's guidance of $24 billion and Visible Alpha consensus of $24.41 billion [2][13] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at $113.1 billion, up 86% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.04, up 93% YoY [2][18] - Data center revenue is expected to reach $96.9 billion in FY25E, up 104% YoY, and $120.3 billion in FY26E, up 24% YoY [21][38] Market Performance - NVIDIA's stock price has risen 58.92% YTD, with a 52-week high of $790.92 and a low of $226.98 [3] - The company's market capitalization stands at $1.97 trillion, with an average daily trading volume of 38.93 million shares [3] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's GPGPU + CUDA software approach has a high barrier to entry, offering both computational efficiency and flexibility, while competitors like AMD face challenges with open platform compatibility [6][8] - AMD's MI300 GPU, released in 4Q23, is expected to achieve $3.5 billion in sales in 2024, but NVIDIA is likely to maintain a dominant market share in the AI accelerator chip market [65][67] Industry Trends - Downstream cloud service providers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 25% in 2024, with over $300 billion likely allocated to AI accelerator chips, primarily from NVIDIA [22][45] - Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are leading the charge in AI infrastructure investments, with Microsoft contributing 140% of the YoY growth in capital expenditures among major cloud providers in 2023 [22][45] Product Roadmap - NVIDIA is set to release the H200 and B100 AI accelerator chips in 2024, with the H200 offering improved memory bandwidth and capacity over the H100, and the B100 expected to double the AI performance of the H200 [59][78] - The H20, a replacement for the H800 in the Chinese market, is priced at $12,000-$15,000, slightly below Huawei's Ascend 910B [60] Valuation and Risks - NVIDIA's current valuation is considered low relative to its historical average, with a forward P/E of 35x compared to the historical average of 45x [2][43] - The primary risk to NVIDIA's stock price is the sustainability of its data center business, but the report remains optimistic about the company's ability to maintain strong performance through 2025 [44]

FY2024Q4 点评：收入盈利持续强劲，数据中心业务中推理占比 40% 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：CY2024 基本与 FY2025 财年重合，表格中 2024E 对应 FY2025E，依次类推。摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-------------------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 买入(维持) | | 合理估值 | 800.00 - 900.00 美元 | | 收盘价 | 785 美元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 16870/16870 亿美元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 746/473 美元 254 亿美元 | | 市场走势 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ②分业务看： 数据中心：营收 184 亿美元（同比+409%，环比+27%）。 4 分行业：垂类行业汽车、医疗保健和金融占比大、提升迅速，去年汽车 行业通过云计算或本地部署为数据中心贡献超过 10 亿美元。金融服务领域，客户 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------| | | | | 作者 | | | 分析师 夏君 | | | 执业证书编号： S0680519100004 | | | 邮箱： xiajun@gszq.com | | | 分析师 朱若菲 | | | 执业证书编号： S0680522030003 | | | 邮箱： zhuruofei@gszq.com | | | 相关研究 | | | 1 、《英伟达（ NVDA.O | ）：百川终将归海， AI 奇点到来》 | P.3 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，本报告所表 述的任何观点均精准地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的个人看法，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。我们所得报酬的 任何部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。 邮箱：gsresearch@gszq.com 风险提示：下游 AI 应用不及预期、数据中心算力芯片竞争 ...

估值方面，我们认为英伟达在 AI 引擎领域具有较高的软硬件协同 优势，其英伟达在生成式 AI 及加速计算领域均已建立了强大的生态体 系，且在现有绝对领导优势的情况下不断突破自身上限，持续推出各类 具有行业领导性的标杆类产品，已经形成多维度的垄断优势，并正向反 馈进一步积累规模优势。其在 AI 算力行业中保持强大的盈利能力和持 久性，在数据中心高端 GPU 方面的技术和市场优势极为明显，短期内 难以撼动，存在极强的标的稀缺性。我们预计英伟达 GPU 的需求将在 2025 年延续强劲的需求，同比仍将呈现较高速增长。从过去 5 年的 PEBAND 中，我们类比英伟达在两次需求周期的估值中枢，基于 FY2025E PE 30X，提升目标价至 892 美元，维持"增持"评级。 数据来源:iFinD，国泰君安证券研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 8 of 11 出口限制的不确定性；主要云厂商资本开支节奏放缓；公司产品研 发及出货速度不及预期；芯片市场竞争加剧。 英伟达（NVDA.US） 本报告仅供国泰君安证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公司 的当然客户。本报告 ...

2024 年 2 月 26 日 英伟达（NVDA.US） 游戏业务 4Q24 营收为 28.7 亿美元，同比增长 56%，环比持平，走出前几个 季度的低迷期。随着全球 PC 出货量见底回暖，游戏业务未来有望保持复苏 态势。公司在 CES 上推出了 RTX 40 Super 系列 GPU，市场反馈良好，而 AIPC 对计算能力的需求有望提高公司 GPU 在 PC 端的市占率。另外，公司于近期 推出了 Chat with RTX，借助 RTX GPU 强大运算能力实现大模型本地化部署， 可以帮助用户检索、分析保存在本地的文件，进而助力开启 AIPC 换机周期。 我们看好 2024 年 PC 市场温和复苏。 汽车业务 4Q24 营收为 2.8 亿美元，同比下降 4%，环比增长 8%；全年汽车业 务营收 11 亿美元，首次超过 10 亿美元大关。理想、长城、吉利、小米等龙 头新能源车企纷纷宣布与英伟达展开合作，使用 NVIDIA Drive 来打造新一 代智驾汽车。虽然汽车业务占总营收比不足 2%，但未来有望随新能源汽车及 自动驾驶的全球普及而成为公司增长的第二曲线。 未来展望 1）公司预计 FY1Q25 营收将在 ...