Asia Memory Equities Memory prices continue to hover higher Korea Soaring memory prices: We reiterate our positive view on the memory sector. Previously, we highlighted a faster memory turnaround from April (see: Asia Memory report, 10 March). We now see that memory prices are hovering higher throughout 2Q, with a higher level of blended ASPs of +3-8% q-o-q due to 1) earlier phase-out of DDR4 products leading to aggressive purchases on the fear of shortages while solid demand for DDR4 is supported by the le ...

Core Insights - Arm Holdings (ARM) faces increasing risks of slower growth in China due to the country's shift towards RISC-V architecture, which contributed 19% of ARM's total sales in fiscal 2025, with revenues from China rising only 7.5% year over year [1][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's ambition to localize its semiconductor ecosystem is driving the promotion of RISC-V as an alternative to Arm's proprietary models, offering cost advantages and design flexibility [2] - Major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba Cloud, Huawei, Tencent, and ZTE, are backing RISC-V, which raises competitive pressure on ARM's presence in China [3][7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and AMD are closely monitoring China's shift to RISC-V, as it poses a threat to their market positions in AI hardware and server chips [4][5] - AMD's EPYC server chips directly compete with China's new Lingyu RISC-V server chip, indicating potential market share erosion for AMD if RISC-V adoption accelerates [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - ARM's stock has gained 18% year to date, outperforming the industry's 5% rally, but it trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 31.5, significantly higher than the industry's 8.1 [6][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM's earnings has been declining over the past 60 days, reflecting potential challenges ahead [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8] Core Insights - Total server shipments grew by 22% year-over-year (y/y) in 1Q25, primarily driven by cloud demand for both AI and general servers [1][2] - AI server shipments are expected to continue growing sequentially throughout 2025 [1][15] - High-end server shipments saw significant growth, increasing by 491% y/y in 1Q25, indicating strong demand for AI servers [12][13] Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Global server shipments totaled 3.9 million units in 1Q25, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) but a robust increase of 22% y/y [2] - The US market outperformed other regions with a 43% y/y growth in shipments, while Western Europe experienced a decline of 7% y/y [11] Segment Analysis - High-end servers outperformed with a 491% y/y growth, followed by mid-range servers at 143% y/y and entry-level servers at 12% y/y [12] - In terms of value, high-end servers rose by 679% y/y, while mid-range and entry-level servers increased by 179% y/y and 12% y/y, respectively [13] Vendor Performance - ODM direct shipments increased by 50% y/y in 1Q25, with a market share of 47.4%, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter [14][15] - Major vendors like Dell, HP, and Lenovo saw declines in market share, with Dell at 9.1% and Lenovo at 4.9% [15] Stock Implications - Preference for ODMs/OEMs over components, with specific companies highlighted for investment potential including Giga-Byte, Hon Hai, and Quanta [7]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - China's AI semiconductor market is expected to see significant growth, with local GPU revenue projected to reach Rmb287 billion by 2027 [21][19] - The overall AI semiconductor market is anticipated to deliver over 30% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, with inference AI semiconductors growing at 55% CAGR [78][77] Summary by Sections China AI Semi Demand and Supply - The top six companies' capital expenditures are forecasted to grow 62% YoY to Rmb373 billion [10] - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024 and is expected to reach 82% by 2027 [16] - The total addressable market (TAM) for China's cloud AI is projected to be US$48 billion by 2027 [18] Semiconductor Solutions and Technology Trends - Moore's Law is expected to continue with chip scaling to 3nm/2nm for better power efficiency [78] - Advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and SoIC are being utilized to increase data speed and memory bandwidth [78] - The EDA market in China is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching US$3.3 billion [29] Investment Opportunities - AI semiconductors are expected to account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027 [148] - The demand for custom AI semiconductors is increasing, driven by major cloud service providers and tech companies [120][121] - The global semiconductor market size may reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors being a major growth driver [59]

全球重点区域： | Africa: top TWS vendors, Q1 2025 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Vendor | | Unit share | Annual growth | | #1 # | Transsion | 52% | +26% | | #2 个 | Xiaomi | 20% | +170% | | #3 10 | Samsung | 9% | +6% | | #4 | Apple | 6% | -3% | | #5 + | Huawei | 1% | +109% | | Source: Canalys estimates (sell-in shipments), Smart Personal Audio Analysis, May 2025 | | | | | APAC (excludes Greater China): top TWS vendors, Q1 2025 | | | | | Vendor | | Unit share | Annual growth | | #1 | boAt | 20% | +31% | | #2< | ...

I think the immediate question is the immediacy of how quickly the bill passes to the president's desk and how you see that happening. Well, thanks, Ed. Glad to be here.So the next step here is for the House to take it up. And I think the House is considering its options, but I think we're basically at the finish line here. The House already passed a similar version of the bill called the Stables Act.And I think that we're very close here to having a bill that can go to the president's desk. There is also a ...

I think that we do have to be concerned about Huawei competing on the global market. Uh they may not fully be there yet, but I would expect that to change in the future. And I think that if we're overly restrictive in terms of US sales to the world, I think there'll be a time where we're kind of kicking ourselves saying, you know, when we're and all of a sudden Huawei is everywhere, we'll be saying, well, wait, when we had this whole market to ourselves, why didn't we take advantage of that opportunity and ...

China's Economic Strategy & Consumer Market - China is strategically shifting away from export dependency on the US consumer by stimulating domestic consumption, which has been sluggish since COVID [3] - The Chinese government is using fiscal stimulus to support consumption, particularly for big-ticket items like washing machines and refrigerators [5] - Chinese retail sales rose more than expected due to stimulus measures like the consumer goods trade-in program [1] US-China Trade & Tech Competition - US companies, particularly Apple, are losing ground in the Chinese market due to US-China tensions and increasing domestic competition [6][7] - Huawei is dominating the smartphone market in China, while Tesla's market share in the EV space has significantly declined, now barely in the top 10 [8][9] - China is successfully implementing industrial policy, dominating the renewable energy sector and expanding into robotics, advanced manufacturing, and AI [9][10] Global Investment & US Economic Outlook - TPW Advisory is overweight on Chinese equity using US-listed ETFs and has been for over a year, also favoring emerging markets more broadly [10][11] - The US is perceived as being priced at a premium with governance and policy uncertainties, leading to a potential shift in global equity leadership away from the US [16][17] - There is a lack of appetite from domestic and foreign investors to significantly increase their treasury, dollar, or US equity positions [15] - The US is seen as falling behind in EVs and industrial policy compared to Europe and China, which are actively investing in AI, climate, and defense [21]

Geopolitical & Security Risks - Israel claims aerial superiority over Tehran following attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure [1] - US embassy branch in Tel Aviv sustained minor damage from nearby explosion [2] - Cyber attack compromised email accounts of Washington Post journalists, potentially by a foreign government [5] Mergers & Acquisitions - Nippon Steel's ~$15 billion bid for US Steel approved, including $11 billion in new investments by 2028 [2] Production Capacity - Nippon Steel's annual production capacity to increase to 86 million metric tons, up from 63 million metric tons [3] Executive Leadership Changes - Reports indicate Renault's CEO Luca Deo may be appointed as Carig's next CEO [4] - Renault confirms Luca Deo is stepping down to pursue opportunities outside the automotive sector [4] Export Controls - Taiwan's Commerce Ministry adds Chinese chip makers Huawei and SMIC to its export control list [4] - Taiwanese companies now require permits to sell products to Huawei and SMIC [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies mentioned [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple (AAPL) is reinforcing its position as a platform of choice for existing users, but limited AI updates imply few switchers in the upcoming iPhone cycle [8]. - Amphenol (APH) is assessed for its long-term AI content growth story, with expectations for AI revenue to grow significantly from approximately $1 billion last year to around $7 billion next year, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9]. - Qualcomm (QCOM) is noted for its strategic acquisition of Alphawave IP for $2.4 billion, which is expected to enhance its position in the datacenter market and drive significant operating leverage [12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Apple (AAPL) - The updates from the WWDC event were incremental, with no major surprises that would change the outlook for iPhones or other devices. The redesigns are significant but lack updates on key AI integrations, which moderates expectations for the iPhone 17 cycle [8]. Amphenol (APH) - The report provides a roadmap for AI cable connector content growth, projecting an increase from ~$1 billion to ~$7 billion in revenue. The anticipated adoption of new technologies is expected to support mid-teens organic growth, with a 15% EPS upside versus consensus for 2026 [9]. Qualcomm (QCOM) - The acquisition of Alphawave IP is seen as strategically important for enhancing Qualcomm's capabilities in the datacenter market, with an estimated total addressable market (TAM) of $33 billion by 2027. The deal is expected to provide synergies and significant operating margins once scaled [12].