Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics due to expected demand growth in the DRAM market driven by GDDR7 and LPDDR5X [1][6]. Core Insights - The global memory supply shortage is anticipated to intensify in the second half of 2025, primarily due to rising demand for GDDR7 driven by advancements in AI inference models and edge AI devices [1][5]. - GDDR7 is expected to significantly enhance performance with a 2x increase in data rates, reaching 4.8Gbps per pin, and doubling bandwidth capacity to 192GB/s per device [2]. - The demand for GDDR7 is projected to contribute an additional 4.03 billion Gb to global DRAM demand in 2H25, representing a 24% increase in graphic DRAM demand and a 2.4% increase in overall global DRAM demand [4][7]. Summary by Sections GDDR7 Technology - GDDR7 features advanced PAM3 technology, improving data density by 50% per clock cycle compared to GDDR6, while operating at a lower voltage of 1.1-1.2V [2]. - The architecture of GDDR7 utilizes four 8-bit channels, enhancing parallel processing capabilities and reducing latency for AI workloads [2]. AI Inference Demand - The emergence of AI distillation technology is expected to drive significant memory demand for AI inference, leading to increased adoption of GDDR7 as an alternative to HBM [3]. Market Projections - The report projects GPU demand from DeepSeek to reach 2 million units in 2H25, with each GPU requiring 96GB of DRAM, contributing to the overall demand increase [4]. - The anticipated DRAM content upgrade in Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to add an additional 3.2% to global DRAM demand in 2H25 [4].

2025 Semiconductor Outlook Tech (Overweight) Jongwook Lee jwstar.lee@samsung.com Tech Team | Jan, 2025 ※ All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Samsung Securities. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any form or by any means, transmitted, copied, or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Samsung Securities. This memorandum is based upon information available to the ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets, particularly highlighting the KOSPI index and oil market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asia Leaders Conference**: The inaugural APAC forum is scheduled for September 3-5 in Hong Kong, with an initial list of approximately 120 corporate participants expected to double in the coming weeks [3][4] 2. **US Market Sentiment**: The S&P 500 index is currently down 113 basis points, just 3% shy of all-time highs, indicating a relatively calm equity market despite geopolitical tensions [5][6] 3. **Investor Positioning**: The GS Sentiment Indicator shows light investor positioning due to recent ETF and equity mutual fund outflows, with concerns about missing market rebounds [9][11] 4. **Household Equity Allocation**: US households now hold 50% of their total financial assets in equities, a record high, with 401(k) plans showing a 70% equity allocation [13] 5. **KOSPI Performance**: The KOSPI is the top-performing market in Asia year-to-date, with a medium-term view suggesting domestic positives will outweigh global cyclical risks [20][21] 6. **Oil Price Forecast**: Limited disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply are expected, with Brent crude projected to fall to $59 by year-end and $56 next year, although short-term risks could push prices higher [17][18] 7. **Foreign Institutional Investment**: Foreign institutional investors net bought $3.6 billion month-to-date, indicating a recovery from previous sell-offs [22] 8. **Sector Adjustments**: Technology hardware and semiconductors have been upgraded to market weight, reflecting positive sentiment in these sectors [29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: Potential escalation in the Middle East could lead to significant spikes in oil prices, with extreme scenarios suggesting prices could exceed $100 [18] 2. **Macro Economic Indicators**: Upcoming key economic data releases include retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, which will be crucial for market direction [15] 3. **Historical Context**: Historical performance during supply-driven oil price shocks suggests that Australia, China A-shares, Malaysia, and Thailand tend to outperform, particularly in energy and defensive sectors [36] 4. **Best Investment Ideas**: Post-election investment ideas include Coupang, HYBE, and SK Hynix, with a focus on reform beneficiaries [28] 5. **Global Economic Outlook**: The US GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been raised to 1.25%, with recession odds reduced to 30% [41] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region.

Core Insights - The U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors are pushing China to develop domestic alternatives, with Huawei being a key player in this effort [1][3][6] AI Chip Design - Nvidia is recognized as the leading AI chip designer, but it does not manufacture the chips itself; it relies on foundries for production [5] - Despite U.S. restrictions, demand for Nvidia chips remains high among Chinese customers, although Nvidia has faced challenges in selling its H20 processor to China [6][7] - Huawei's HiSilicon is making progress in GPU design, with its Ascend 910B and upcoming Ascend 910C chips showing significant advancements, though still behind Nvidia [9][10] AI Chip Fabrication - Nvidia's manufacturing is primarily done by TSMC, which is compliant with U.S. export controls, limiting Huawei's access to advanced chip production [11][12] - SMIC, China's largest foundry, is behind TSMC in technology, officially capable of producing 7-nanometer chips but suspected of working on a 5-nanometer chip for Huawei [13] - Huawei is reportedly working on its own fabrication capabilities, but lacks essential manufacturing equipment [14] Advanced Chip Equipment - Export controls from the Netherlands restrict SMIC's access to advanced lithography machines from ASML, which are crucial for producing advanced GPUs [15][16] - SMIC has attempted to circumvent these restrictions using less advanced lithography systems, but this approach has limitations [17] - Chinese companies like SiCarrier Technologies are exploring alternative lithography technologies, but achieving comparable capabilities may take years [18] AI Memory Components - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is essential for AI applications, with South Korean companies like SK Hynix leading the market [19][20] - Chinese firms such as ChangXin Memory Technologies are in the early stages of HBM production but face significant challenges, including export controls [21][22] - Huawei relies on foreign HBM supplies for its Ascend 910C processor, highlighting the ongoing dependence on international suppliers despite domestic advancements [24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry, but it highlights preferred stocks for investment in the US and internationally, indicating a positive outlook for certain companies [2]. Core Insights - Total semiconductor sales in April declined by 11.7% month-over-month (M/M), aligning with the 5-year seasonal average but approximately 120 basis points below the 10-year average. Year-over-year (Y/Y) sales increased for the 19th consecutive month, reaching a growth rate of 21.7% [2]. - The semiconductor industry is projected to experience a 3-6% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) growth in revenue for Q2 2025, with current street estimates at 3.4% Q/Q [4]. - Memory sales fell significantly by 23.3% M/M, driven by a 22.1% decrease in units sold. However, DRAM average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.8% M/M, while NAND ASP rebounded by 19.6% M/M [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sales and Trends - April semiconductor sales saw an 11.7% M/M decline, with a 21.7% Y/Y increase. The ASP dropped by 4.9% M/M, which is 360 basis points worse than the 10-year average [2]. - The decline in units sold across major product segments was noted, with a 7.1% M/M decline in units outperforming seasonal averages by 100-200 basis points [2]. Memory Market Insights - Memory sales decreased by 23.3% M/M, with DRAM revenue dropping by 29.0% M/M and NAND sales falling by 9.4% M/M. The report anticipates a weakening memory cycle in the second half of 2025 due to oversupply [3]. - The June forecast predicts a blended DRAM ASP increase of 6% Q/Q and NAND ASP increase of 3% Q/Q for Q2 2025 [3]. Preferred Stocks - In the US, preferred stocks include AVGO, MRVL, ARM, MU, NVDA, and TXN. Internationally, preferred stocks are ASE, Hon Hai Precision, NXP, Infineon, JCET, MediaTek, Quanta, Renesas Electronics, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, TSMC, and Wiwynn [2].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is facing significant challenges due to fluctuating tariff policies and economic uncertainty, impacting the operations and planning of companies within the industry [1][2]. Semiconductor Supplier Rankings Analog IC - Texas Instruments (TI) remains the largest analog IC supplier in 2024, despite a 7% revenue decline to $12.2 billion, holding a market share of 14.8% [3]. - Analog Devices (ADI) ranks second, with a focus on automotive and medical sectors, planning to double production by the end of 2025 [3]. DRAM - The DRAM market saw an impressive growth of 88% in 2024, driven by high bandwidth memory (HBM) and the transition to DDR5, with average prices increasing by 81% [4]. - Samsung leads the market with $39.5 billion in revenue, followed by SK Hynix and Micron, with significant growth rates reported [6]. NAND - The NAND flash market grew by 69% to $66.1 billion in 2024, primarily driven by price increases of 70% [7]. - Samsung maintains a 35% market share, with Kioxia and Micron following in the rankings [9]. MCU - The microcontroller (MCU) market declined by 22% in 2024 due to economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [10]. - NXP leads the MCU market despite a 9% revenue drop, while Infineon is the only supplier to report growth [11]. MPU & APU - The microprocessor (MPU) and application processor (APU) market grew by 18.3% in 2024, reaching $104.8 billion, with Intel and Apple leading the rankings [12][13]. Foundry - The global foundry market grew by 22% to $122.7 billion, with TSMC leading the sector with a 73.4% market share [14][15]. O-S-D - The O-S-D device market declined by 9% to $91.1 billion, with Sony and Infineon leading the rankings despite revenue drops [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Most Preferred" rating for several companies in the APAC Tech sector, including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics, all rated as "Buy" [11][12]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff outcomes on end-demand, indicating that while the effect is material, the exact degree is difficult to quantify [9]. - AI demand is confirmed to be on track, with Nvidia's supply chain accelerating [9]. - A weakening memory cycle is anticipated, with expectations of oversupply for NAND and DDR DRAM from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The smartphone unit growth forecast has been lowered to flat YoY for 2025-2026, while PC growth is expected at +2% for both years [10]. - The report forecasts that the 3MMA YoY semiconductor revenue growth peaked in April 2025, with the next trough expected in Q2 2026 [10]. Key Stock Coverage - Top picks include TSMC and SK Hynix, both rated "Buy," with price targets indicating significant upside potential [11]. - Other recommended stocks include Samsung Electronics, SEMCO, and LG Innotek, all with favorable ratings and price targets suggesting substantial upside [12]. Sector Preferences - The report categorizes APAC Tech stocks into "Most Preferred" and "Least Preferred," with a clear bias towards value stocks in the technology sector [12]. - The report indicates an overweight position in leading-edge foundries and memory semiconductors, while being underweight in back-end equipment and displays [12]. Model Portfolio Performance - The "Most Preferred" portfolio has shown a year-to-date return of -8.5%, while the "Least Preferred" portfolio has returned 9.0% [13]. - Overall, the portfolio has achieved a significant return since inception, indicating strong long-term performance despite recent volatility [13].

Core Insights - Nvidia shares experienced a 5.22% increase in premarket trading following the release of better-than-expected earnings and revenue, despite facing challenges from U.S. semiconductor export restrictions to China [1][2] Company Performance - Nvidia's strong earnings have positioned it as a bellwether for the semiconductor industry and AI-related stocks, leading to a rally in global semiconductor stocks [2] - The company's positive financial results have had a ripple effect, boosting shares of related companies such as Tokyo Electron, which closed over 4% higher, and SK Hynix, which rose nearly 2% [2] Market Reaction - The rally in semiconductor stocks was observed globally, with notable gains in Europe for companies like ASM International, BE Semiconductor Industries, and ASML, all of which ended in positive territory [2]

Market Capitalization Changes - The market capitalization of major global technology and internet companies has shown varied changes as of May 29, 2025, with notable fluctuations in percentage terms [1][3][4]. - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba experienced declines of 2.3% and 2.33% respectively, while Oracle saw an increase of 1.2% [3][4]. Company Performance - Notable performers include Palantir with a slight increase of 0.3% and Adobe maintaining a stable position with a market cap of $1.76 billion [4][5]. - Companies such as AMD and Uber reported declines of 1.48% and 0.83% respectively, indicating a challenging market environment for these firms [3][5]. Sector Insights - The semiconductor sector remains under pressure, with companies like Intel and Micron showing declines of 0.88% and 0.21% respectively, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry [5][6]. - Conversely, companies like SK Hynix and Keyence reported slight increases, suggesting some resilience within specific segments of the technology sector [5][6]. Emerging Trends - The data indicates a mixed outlook for the technology sector, with some companies like Shopify and Spotify showing positive growth trends, while others face headwinds [4][7]. - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with several companies experiencing minor fluctuations in their market valuations [3][4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 revenue grew 12% year-over-year, reaching $830 million, with operating profit of $83 million and an operating margin of 10.6% [23][26] - Subscription services revenue increased 17% to $406 million, representing over half of total revenue, while annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 18% to $1.7 billion [25][26] - Total remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew 17% to $2.7 billion, indicating strong renewals and new commitments [25][26] - Total gross margin improved to 70.9%, with subscription services margin at 77.2% [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Storage as a Service (SaaS) solutions saw a 70% increase in total contract value (TCV) sales, reaching $95 million, driven by large Evergreen One deals [23][25] - Product margin rose 1.1 points sequentially to 64%, with expectations for mid-60s product gross margin for the year [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue grew 9% to $531 million, while international revenue increased 21% to $248 million year-over-year [26] - The company added 235 new customers, achieving a penetration rate of 62% within the Fortune 500 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on modernizing IT infrastructure and breaking down data silos, with a strong emphasis on AI and high-performance computing solutions [10][15] - A major partnership with Nutanix was announced to integrate their cloud platform with Pure Storage, aimed at enhancing virtualization solutions [12][15] - The company is expanding its cloud block store integration into a fully managed service available through Azure VMware service [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties while maintaining strong performance [18][30] - The company anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year, with a revenue forecast of $845 million for Q2, representing a 10.6% year-over-year increase [30] Other Important Information - The CFO, Kevan Krysler, will be leaving the company after more than five years, with a smooth transition planned [20][21] - The company has a strong balance sheet with $1.6 billion in cash and investments, and Q1 operating cash flow was $284 million [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on hyperscale opportunity with Meta - Management indicated that the evaluation and testing process with Meta is on track, with expectations for significant progress in the second half of the year [39][40] Question: Size of the newly announced AXA offering - The opportunity is seen as niche but substantial, targeting markets like government and large-scale GPU clusters, with expected margins at or above company standards [45][46] Question: Changes in buyer behavior during macro uncertainty - Management noted no significant changes in customer sentiment or purchasing behavior in Q1, with broad-based strength across traditional sales and Evergreen One [51][54] Question: Clarification on subscription margins amid tariff costs - Management stated that they can absorb any potential tariff costs without significantly impacting subscription gross margins [94] Question: Revenue contribution from Meta's one to two exabytes - Some de minimis revenue contribution has been contemplated in the annual guide, expected to be recognized in the second half [72][73] Question: Time to close larger deals - Management reported that larger deals are tracking as expected, with solid momentum in both larger and higher velocity transactions [78]