Citi Research Global Technology, Communications, Real Estate, Energy, and Industrials February 23, 2026 Data Center GAINs (Gen AI Names) Multi-Asset Strong Absorption Supports Solid 2026 and LT Data Center Demand | Equities | | | | | ABS | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Michael Rollins, CFAAC +1 212 816-3116 | Heath TerryAC +1 212 723-4624 | Caitlyn Walsh caitlyn.walsh@citi.com | | | | | michael.rollins@citi.com | heath.terry@citi.com | | | | | | Siraj Ahmed AC | AC Scott Gruber | Andrew KaplowitzA ...

Big Tech plans to spend hundreds of billions on AI this year, the industry leaders said this earnings season. In response, a stock sell-off followed as traders grew wary of the whole AI story. Looking for something safer, they went into energy stocks. Big Oil stocks, to be precise. Last week saw a sharp drop in Big Tech stocks as traders sold off their holdings on fears that artificial intelligence was about to replace software. NVIDIA’s CEO Jensen Huang dismissed those fears, saying, “There's this notion ...

Core Viewpoint - ADNOC Gas operates within a state-led energy system, which provides advantages such as credit perception and access to domestic demand, but also entails significant upfront costs and execution risks [1][2][12] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, ADNOC Gas reported a net profit of $1.34 billion, an 8% increase, despite a 6% decrease in revenue to $23.47 billion [2][3] - The company's full-year net income for 2025 reached $5.2 billion, a 3% increase from FY2024, highlighting strong margin management despite a 4% revenue decline [3] Capital Expenditure and Strategy - ADNOC Gas's capital expenditure (capex) surged to $3.6 billion in 2025, a 98% increase from the previous year, raising concerns about execution risk and project discipline [2][11] - The company is transitioning from a cash-harvesting phase to a capex-heavy industrial buildout, which may challenge its ability to maintain dividend distributions [2][11] Dividend Policy - ADNOC Gas confirmed a 2025 dividend of $3.584 billion, with a policy to increase per-share dividends by 5% annually over several years [4][12] - The company is positioned as a dividend engine within the ADNOC group, which aims to maintain aggressive dividend payouts through 2030 [4] Market Position and Risks - ADNOC Gas is perceived as a stable utility with a strong domestic demand, but analysts question the sustainability of its profitability amid declining revenues [2][8] - The company faces potential risks from project cost increases, schedule delays, and the need for governance and execution discipline under a dual mandate of growth and yield [5][12] Expansion and Future Outlook - ADNOC Gas is pursuing major investment programs, including the Rich Gas Development project, to enhance processing capacity and efficiency [6][7] - The company's future performance will depend on its ability to balance capital spending with dividend commitments while navigating the complexities of a state-driven industrial strategy [10][11]

Financial Performance - ADNOC Gas reported a net income of $1.17 billion for Q4 2025, a 15% decrease from $1.4 billion in Q4 2024 [1] - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $5.5 billion, down 10% from $6.1 billion in Q4 2024 [1] - The company achieved a full-year net income of $5.2 billion in 2025, a 3% increase compared to $5 billion in 2024 [2] - Total revenue for 2025 was $23.5 billion, a 4% decrease from $24.4 billion in 2024 [3] - EBITDA for the full year remained unchanged at $8.6 billion compared to 2024 [3] Operational Highlights - ADNOC Gas expanded its sales volumes by 5% in Q4 2025, driven by steady demand in the UAE [1] - Domestic adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 6% year-on-year, supported by consistent activity in the UAE's industrial sector [2] Capital Expenditure and Investments - Capital expenditure reached $3.6 billion in 2025, advancing several major projects including phase one of the Rich Gas Development project [4] - The commissioning of Integrated Gas Development Expansion 2 in late 2025 facilitated progress on the ADNOC Estidama gas pipeline project [4] Strategic Outlook - ADNOC Gas aims to address domestic demand growth beyond 2026 through infrastructural investments such as the Estidama pipeline [5] - The company expects to make a final investment decision on phases two and three of the Rich Gas Development project in early 2026, targeting a 30% capacity expansion by 2029 [6] - In January 2026, ADNOC entered a ten-year agreement to supply liquefied natural gas to Hindustan Petroleum Corporation of India, valued between $2.5 billion and $3 billion [6]

>> THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA." VICTORY RALLY. THE YEN EDGES HAGER AFTER PRIME MINISTER TAYESHI’S L. D.P. ACHIEVES THE BIGGEST POST-WAR VICTORY FOR A SINGLE PARTY IN A POST-WAR ELECTION. IRAN IS DESCRIBING ITS NUCLEAR TALKS WITH WASHINGTON AS A STEP FORWARD WITH ANOTHER MEETING SET FOR THIS WEEK.AND WE HEAR FROM SAUDI ARABIA’S FINANCE MINISTER, MUHAMMAD AL-JADAN AS THE KINGDOM PLANS TO RELEASE AN UPDATED STRATEGY FOR ITS $2 TRILLION ECONOMIC DIVERSIFY CASE AGENDA. IT’S JUST PAST 9:00 IN THE EM ...

Core Insights - ADNOC Gas has signed a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) valued between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, marking a significant step in the energy partnership between the UAE and India [1][2][4] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement is for a duration of ten years, transitioning from a heads of agreement established in August 2025 to a definitive sales and purchase agreement (SPA) [1][2] - ADNOC Gas will export 500,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of LNG from its Das Island liquefaction facility, which has an annual production capacity of up to six million tonnes per annum (mtpa) [2][4] Group 2: Future Projections - By 2029, ADNOC Gas is expected to manage a total of 15.6 mtpa of LNG, with 3.2 mtpa allocated for Indian energy companies, including HPCL [3] - The agreement supports India's goal to increase natural gas to 15% of its energy mix by 2030, aligning with ADNOC Gas' strategy to expand its market presence in Asia [4] Group 3: Market Context - Over the past three years, ADNOC Gas has secured multiple long-term LNG contracts with various Asian markets, with contract values exceeding $20 billion [5]

Global Energy Strategy - The report highlights an acceleration in the application of artificial intelligence in the energy sector, with ExxonMobil reporting significant improvements in seismic data processing times, reducing from months to weeks, potentially realizing over $1 billion in value [3][7] - The outlook for nitrogen fertilizer is positive, with CF Industries projecting strong demand in North America, India, and Brazil, and low global inventory levels [5][12] - The oil market is expected to face oversupply by 2026, as indicated by Shell, which notes increased crude oil reserves in China and a significant rise in in-transit crude volumes [4][9] Investment Focus - ADNOC Gas, ADNOC Drilling, and ADNOC Distribution are rated as outperform, with projected P/E ratios for 2025E at 15.7, 16.1, and 17.4 respectively [1] - Fertiglobe is also rated outperform, with a projected P/E of 25.1 for 2025E, benefiting from the positive nitrogen fertilizer outlook [1][12] - Companies like Saudi Aramco and Vestas Wind Systems are highlighted for their strong performance and positive growth outlooks, with P/E ratios of 16.4 and 18.6 for 2025E respectively [1] Key Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon capture in data centers, with ExxonMobil focusing on developing low-carbon data centers with over 90% carbon capture rates [8] - The liquid natural gas market is expected to see a balance in supply and demand, with Cheniere Energy forecasting a gradual decline in spot LNG prices due to new liquefaction capacity coming online [10][11] - The nitrogen fertilizer market is projected to maintain a favorable supply-demand balance, with CF Industries estimating global nitrogen fertilizer demand growth of 1-2% annually [5][12]

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

Group 1 - ADNOC Gas has signed a $4 billion deal to supply natural gas to EMSTEEL for 20 years starting in 2027, focusing on lower-carbon energy [1][2] - The agreement strengthens the partnership between ADNOC Gas and EMSTEEL, highlighting their commitment to sustainable economic growth in the UAE [2] - ADNOC Gas supplies 60% of the UAE's natural gas needs, emphasizing its strategic role in the nation's industrial growth and energy security [4] Group 2 - The UAE has approved a $150 billion capital program for 2026–2030 to expand its national energy strategy, which includes significant increases in oil and gas reserves [3][5] - Oil reserves in the UAE have increased by 7 billion stock tank barrels to 120 billion STB, while gas reserves have risen by 7 trillion cubic feet to 297 tscf [5] - The board of ADNOC has approved CAPEX of $150 billion over the next five years to enhance upstream capacity, expand gas output, and accelerate growth in downstream and chemicals [6]

（原标题：ADNOC Gas三季度净收入增8%） ZAWYA网站11月13日消息，阿布扎比国家石油公司旗下的天然气子公司ADNOC Gas公布三季度净 收入13.4亿美元，创历史同期新高，同比增长8%。2025年前9个月净收入39.9亿美元，超出市场预期。 国内天然气业务增至9.14亿美元，同比增26%。 ...