Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remained stable amid military exercises conducted by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global crude oil supplies Group 1: Oil Prices - U.S. crude oil increased by 53 cents, or 0.84%, reaching $63.42 per barrel [1] - Global benchmark Brent crude decreased by 29 cents, or 0.42%, to $68.36 [1] Group 2: Strait of Hormuz - Approximately one-third of all waterborne crude oil exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to consulting firm Kpler [2] - Traffic through the strait was halted for several hours due to naval exercises conducted by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) [1] Group 3: Military Tensions - The IRGC has indicated readiness to close the Strait of Hormuz if given the order, as stated by Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri [3] - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, with President Donald Trump threatening military action if a nuclear deal is not reached [2] - Indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. took place in Geneva, Switzerland [2]

Iranian Navy soldiers at an armed speed boat in Persian Gulf near the strait of Hormuz about 1320km (820 miles) south of Tehran, April 30, 2019.Iran partially closed the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, state media reported, citing "security precautions" as Tehran's Revolutionary Guards conduct military drills in the waterway.It comes as the U.S. and Iran hold talks in the Swiss city of Geneva, seeking to resolve an ongoing dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.It marks the first time Iran h ...

为应对因美国制裁而导致的严重能源危机，古巴政府宣布了系列紧急措施，包括：国有企业实行4天工 作制，周一到周四上班；减少省际公共交通服务；缩短学校上课时间；关闭某些旅游场所等。据报道， 至少两家大型海滩度假村或将在本周关闭，许多人将因此失业。 另据报道，古巴的能源危机已经严重影响到该国航空业。古巴首都哈瓦那何塞·马蒂国际机场发布的一 份官方文件称，该机场商用飞机常用的标准燃油Jet A-1将耗尽。文件显示生效日期为2026年2月10日， 并将至少持续到2026年3月11日。这意味着该国主要机场恐有一个月的时间缺乏燃油供应，飞机无法在 该机场加油。对于一个国家的主要机场来说，这是一个非常严重的问题。 报道称，哈瓦那何塞·马蒂国际机场燃油短缺将迫使航空公司采取替代方案，如携带更多燃油、在第三 国加油，或直接取消航班。而这些方案将增加航司运营成本，恐影响航线的稳定性。 当地时间2月7日，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆称，墨西哥政府正在准备一批援助物资，主要包括食品以及古巴要 求的其他一些物资，最迟将于星期一发出。她补充说，各方仍在继续通过"外交努力"以恢复石油运输， 并重申"显然，我们不希望墨西哥面临制裁"。 据报道，古巴目前每天 ...

欧盟新规规定，炼油厂需能分离俄原油后才可向欧盟出口燃料，否则需在货物装船前60天停止进口俄原 油。能源分析师表示，印度柴油更多流向非洲，将为中东燃料供应欧洲腾出空间，而土耳其此前靠进口 俄柴油满足内需、出口本土柴油至欧洲的模式将受抑制。 数据显示，印度去年12月对西非柴油出口达历史峰值15.5万桶/日，今年1月达8.4万桶/日。与此同时， 欧盟为实现供应多元化，1月从美中东地区进口的燃料量创下三个月新高，这也是欧盟摆脱对俄能源依 赖、推进能源供应调整的重要举措。 据Kpler数据，2025年俄罗斯原油占印度海运原油进口量的30%，占土耳其的48%。今年1月，印度未向 欧盟出口任何柴油，而2025年其月均对欧出口量达13.7万桶/日，曾是欧盟第三大柴油供应国;土耳其1月 对欧柴油出口量约4.5万桶/日，较2025年月均8.7万桶/日大幅下滑。 中化新网讯 近日，油气市场分析机构Kpler表示，受欧盟禁止进口俄罗斯原油衍生燃料政策影响，近期 全球石油流向出现调整。印度1月停止向欧盟出口柴油，转而将创纪录数量的柴油运往西非，同时土耳 其对欧盟的柴油出口显著放缓。此举凸显欧盟旨在制裁俄罗斯的能源政策，正深入重塑洲际石 ...

The oil tanker "Grinch" (R), suspected of belonging to the Russian's shadow fleet, is seen outside the coast of Martigues near the port of Marseille-Fos on January 25, 2026, as it's surveilled by the French Navy.President Donald Trump announced a U.S. trade deal with India on Monday which he said includes a promise to from India to stop buying Russian oil and buy from Venezuela, but data shows the shadow fleet of tankers moving sanctioned crude continues to unload at Indian ports.Global data and analytics f ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's blockade has led to an energy crisis in Cuba, with oil reserves expected to last only 15 to 20 days due to the disruption of supplies from Venezuela and Mexico [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Supply Disruption - Cuba's oil supply from Venezuela, which was at 46,500 barrels per day in December, has been completely cut off following the U.S. military's capture of President Maduro on January 3 [2]. - Mexico's oil exports to Cuba averaged about 17,200 barrels per day for crude oil and 2,000 barrels per day for refined oil from January to September last year, but recent reports indicate that Mexico may halt further shipments due to U.S. pressure [2][5]. - Kpler's analysis indicates that Cuba's oil reserves, combined with a recent shipment from Mexico, can only sustain the country for 15 to 20 days [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The interruption of oil supplies is expected to have a devastating impact on Cuba's economy, which is already facing stagnation, with declines in tourism and sugar production [5][6]. - Frequent power outages are reported across Cuba, and without a restoration of oil supplies, the country may have to implement strict rationing measures [5][6]. - Experts warn that the economic crisis could threaten the survival of the Cuban government, as the situation becomes increasingly dire [6]. Group 3: Political Context - The U.S. administration is attempting to leverage the oil supply blockade to force Cuba into negotiations, with President Trump asserting that Cuba will soon fail without Venezuelan support [6]. - In response to U.S. threats, Cuban citizens have protested against perceived U.S. imperialism, while the Cuban president has vowed that the country will not be deterred by external pressures [6].

2025年，全球液化天然气(LNG)贸易量创下历史新高，市场对新一年的展望普遍乐观，仅对潜在供应过 剩存有隐忧。然而进入2026年仅两周，全球LNG最大的买家之一欧盟，便与其最大供应国美国陷入地 缘政治争端，并搁置了一项巨额能源贸易协定。2026年LNG市场正朝着充满变数的方向发展。 Kpler本月初发布报告称，2026年全球LNG新增产能预计达3700万吨/年，叠加2025年已投产的5100万吨/ 年新产能，市场供应压力将显著增大。该分析机构指出，产能放量将抑制液化天然气价格，进而刺激亚 洲买家的采购需求，中国市场的需求回暖将尤为明显。 今年全球LNG贸易行业还面临其他挑战。比如，日本出于能源安全考量，重启了更多核反应堆。此 外，印度2025年的LNG进口量同样出现下滑，这也凸显出全球多数大型液化天然气买家对价格的高度 敏感性。 2025年欧洲LNG进口量突破1亿吨。Kpler原本预测，2026年欧洲LNG进口量仍将继续大幅增长，全年总 量有望达到1.45亿吨。但当前的地缘政治局势可能导致这一目标难以实现。不过相较于美国，欧盟更难 将LNG作为反击武器。美欧关系恶化将推动LNG价格下行，这对生产商而言是利空 ...

Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, shipping data intelligence firm Kpler said. ...

The U.S. military last week released this photo of what it said was the seizure of a tanker in the North Atlantic. - Handout/U.S. European Command/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images For now, the official oil price is calm. But the U.S. attack on Venezuela is creating pressure on the shadowy market for sanctioned crude and its biggest customer: China. Brent, the main international benchmark, is trading around $63 a barrel and has risen less than $3 since President Nicolás Maduro was captured. Some addition ...

Core Insights - The Strait of Hormuz is under scrutiny due to potential U.S. intervention in Iran, which could disrupt a critical energy chokepoint through which nearly a third of the world's seaborne crude flows transit [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global oil and gas crisis, especially if the Iranian regime feels threatened [3]. - Approximately 13 million barrels per day of crude oil transited the Strait in 2025, representing about 31% of global seaborne crude flows [4]. - Analysts predict that oil prices could spike by $10 to $20 per barrel in the event of a complete closure of the Strait, while a fear of closure could raise prices by a few dollars per barrel [7]. Group 2: Risk Assessment - Military action against Iran carries significantly higher risks compared to Venezuela due to the volume of crude and refined product supply involved [6]. - Experts estimate a 70% likelihood of selective U.S. strikes on Iran, which could lead to immediate oil price spikes [6]. - Despite the potential for disruption, most analysts believe catastrophic outcomes remain low-probability events, as Iran may not fully close the Strait due to regional power dynamics and U.S. naval presence [8]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The oil market is currently leaning towards oversupply, with an estimated excess supply of 2.5 million barrels per day in January and over 3 million barrels per day in February and March [9]. - Any closure of the Strait would likely be met with a show of force by the U.S. and allies to restore oil flows [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is more complex than in Latin America, making it difficult for the U.S. to adopt a Venezuela-style strategy towards Iran [11]. - The current U.S. strategy appears to focus on consolidating power in the Western Hemisphere rather than direct military action against Iran [11].