Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - XPeng Inc. reported unaudited fourth-quarter results with sales of RMB20.38 billion, a gross margin of 20.1%, and a vehicle margin of 13.1% [3] - The company anticipates delivering 1,000 humanoid robots in the last quarter of the year [1] - Citi analyst Jeff Chung reduced XPeng's price objective from $28.40 to $27.60 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Competitor Insights - JPMorgan trimmed its price objective for XPeng to $34 from $50 while retaining an Overweight rating, citing expectations of underperformance in China's auto industry in 2026 due to slowing passenger vehicle growth [2] - JPMorgan also reduced Li Auto's profitability projection to a loss due to lower sales volumes and margins [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - XPeng implemented a start-and-stop charge payment feature on the XPENG App in Hong Kong, allowing users to scan charging pile QR codes, monitor charging sessions, and pay with AlipayHK [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nio has experienced significant volatility, with a peak gain of over 2,000% during the pandemic, but has since lost more than 90% of its value from its all-time high [1] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Nio faces intense competition in the EV market, particularly from BYD and Tesla, and is not among the top-10 EV sellers in China [2] - The competitive environment has led to price cuts among EV manufacturers, which negatively impacts profit margins [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Nio reported a net loss of $488.9 million on revenues of $3.1 billion, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges [3] - Vehicle deliveries increased by 40.8% year over year in Q3, but revenue only grew by 16.7%, indicating a decline in revenue per vehicle [6] - Despite trimming net operating losses and improving profit margins, Nio has not achieved a profitable quarter in its 11-year history, raising concerns about its long-term viability [7] Group 3: Market Demand - Demand for EVs in China is cooling as the government rolls back subsidies, making EVs less attractive to consumers [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $12.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $3.50 for fiscal Q1 2026, with non-GAAP EPS at the high end of guidance [5][17] - QCT revenues reached a record $10.6 billion, with strong year-over-year growth across automotive and IoT segments [17] - Licensing business revenues were $1.6 billion, with an EBT margin of 77%, driven by higher units and favorable mix [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - QCT handset revenues reached a record $7.8 billion, benefiting from recently launched flagship smartphones [17] - QCT IoT revenues grew 9% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, driven by demand across consumer and networking products [17] - QCT Automotive revenues grew to $1.1 billion, up 15% year-over-year, reflecting increased demand for Snapdragon Digital Chassis platforms [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global consumer demand for handsets, particularly in the premium and high-tier segments, exceeded expectations, with healthy sell-through observed [5] - The handset industry is expected to face constraints due to memory availability and pricing, particularly DRAM, as suppliers redirect capacity to meet AI data center demand [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its presence in the premium and high-tier smartphone segments, with a dual flagship product strategy that has seen broad OEM adoption [6][7] - The company is also investing in AI-native smartphones and intelligent wearables, positioning Snapdragon platforms as the choice for the industry [7][8] - In automotive, the company aims to reinforce its technology leadership with multiple design wins and collaborations with major automakers [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fundamentals of the handset business despite near-term challenges related to memory supply and pricing [19] - The company anticipates returning to prior growth trajectories for QCT handset revenues once memory supply normalizes [19] - Management remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential in automotive and IoT, with expectations for continued revenue acceleration [21] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of Alphawave Semi, enhancing its high-speed wire connectivity technologies [15] - The company is actively engaging with leading hyperscalers and cloud service providers to develop data center solutions [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors are driving the weakness in handset outlook beyond memory pricing? - Management indicated that the weakness is entirely related to memory availability, with strong microeconomic indicators and handset demand observed [26][27] Question: Is the automotive revenue growth driven by ADAS wins? - Management confirmed that the automotive pipeline continues to translate into revenue, with new car launches contributing to record revenues [29][30] Question: How is the company managing the memory supply situation? - Management clarified that they do not purchase memory directly but work closely with customers who do, ensuring flexibility with various memory providers [69][70] Question: What is the outlook for the data center business? - Management stated that progress is on track, with positive feedback from engagements with hyperscalers and cloud service providers [35][36] Question: How does the company view the impact of memory shortages on the overall handset market? - Management emphasized that the size of the handset market will be determined by memory availability, with expectations for premium and high-tier segments to remain resilient [40][76]

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto Sector - **Outlook for 2026**: The sector is expected to face both positives and negatives, with a cautious outlook for the first half of the year. Key Positives 1. **Surging LiDAR/ADAS/Robotaxi Penetrations**: Increased adoption of advanced technologies is anticipated to drive growth in the sector [1] 2. **Export Growth**: Projected export growth of 19% YoY, with New Energy Vehicles (NEV) expected to grow at 49% YoY [1] 3. **Commercial Vehicle Demand**: Demand for commercial vehicles is in a favorable position due to overseas demand and a stabilizing domestic market [1] 4. **End of Price Cuts**: The trend of price cuts in passenger vehicles (PV) is expected to come to an end, stabilizing margins [1] 5. **Market Concentration Improvements**: Gradual improvements in market concentration and utilization rates are expected, with overall NEV sales per model projected to increase slightly [1] Key Negatives 1. **Cost Inflation**: Anticipated cost inflation may erode auto maker net profit margins (NPM) by 2-5 percentage points [1] 2. **Cautious Outlook for 1Q/2Q**: A very cautious outlook for the first two quarters, with EV retail sales expected to slow to 4% and 0% YoY respectively [1] 3. **Lower PV Wholesale/Retail Forecasts**: FY26 wholesale and retail forecasts for PV have been lowered to -3.8% and -9.6% YoY, with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles expected to decline by 25% YoY [1] 4. **High ICE Inventories**: Concerns over high ICE inventories leading to destocking issues [1] 5. **Earnings Forecast Cuts**: Valuations have bottomed, but consensus earnings forecasts are expected to be cut soon [1] Stock Recommendations - **Stocks to Buy**: 1. **BYD**: Strong export and domestic consolidation potential [11] 2. **Pony/WeRide**: Benefiting from the China robotaxi upcycle [11] 3. **Hesai**: Growth in L3 policy, exports, and new robotic business [11] 4. **Weichai**: Data center-related energy supply solutions [11] 5. **Minth**: Data center cooling solutions and robot parts [11] Market Trends - **Pricing and Consolidation**: No significant price cuts are anticipated in 2026 due to anti-involution regulations and rising raw material costs, which may drive industry consolidation [3] - **Global PV Market Shares**: China's PV export sales are projected to maintain strong growth, with NEV exports driving this growth [4] - **Earnings Visibility**: Companies like Seres, Li Auto, SAIC, Changan, and GAC are expected to underperform due to margin dilution and negative sales outlooks for ICE vehicles [2] Additional Insights - **High Beta Rally**: Potential high-beta rallies may favor tech and ADAS/robotaxi companies over traditional NEV makers due to decelerating growth [5] - **Commercial Vehicle Outlook**: Positive outlook for commercial vehicle manufacturers like Sinotruk, driven by decent orders growth and potential policy stimulus [14] - **Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels for PVs and NEVs indicate a cautious market environment, with end-2025 ICE inventories reported as high to very high [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China auto sector, along with stock recommendations and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent production and delivery numbers were deemed "better than feared" by analyst Dan Ives, despite falling short of internal targets [1][2]. Delivery and Production Summary - Q4 2025 deliveries totaled 418,227 vehicles, approximately 1.1% below Tesla's internal analyst consensus of 422,850 and nearly 3.4% under Visible Alpha's estimate of 432,810 [8]. - Q4 2025 production reached 434,358 vehicles, lagging behind Bloomberg's consensus of 470,780 by about 7.7% [8]. - Full-year 2025 deliveries amounted to 1,636,129 vehicles, closely aligning with Tesla's compiled consensus of 1,640,752 and near third-party expectations of around 1.65 million [8]. - Full-year 2025 production was 1,654,667 vehicles, indicating that Tesla produced slightly more than it delivered [8]. - Energy storage for Q4 reached a record 14.2 GWh, surpassing Tesla's compiled consensus of 13.4 GWh by nearly 6% [8]. Market Context and Challenges - Tesla's delivery numbers are under pressure due to the loss of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit and ongoing challenges in Europe, but the overall report suggests stability rather than decline [3][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Chinese EV manufacturer BYD selling 4.6 million vehicles, including nearly 2.26 million battery EVs, significantly outpacing Tesla's 1.64 million deliveries [14]. - Other competitors like Geely, NIO, and Li Auto also reported strong late-year numbers, emphasizing the competitive nature of the EV market [15]. Future Outlook - Dan Ives believes that Tesla is entering 2026 on firm ground, despite the challenges in achieving delivery growth [7][9]. - The focus is shifting beyond just vehicle deliveries to include advancements in AI, energy, and autonomy, which may help offset weaknesses in the core EV business [4][5]. - Ives maintains a buy rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $600, the highest on Wall Street [10]. Analyst Sentiment and Valuation - Tesla stock is currently trading around $438, having experienced an 8% decline recently but still showing a 16% gain for the year [11]. - Analysts have varied price targets for Tesla, with Deutsche Bank at $500, BofA Securities at $471, Goldman Sachs at $420, Morgan Stanley at $425, and UBS at $247, reflecting differing views on the company's valuation and growth potential [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Date**: December 30, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights - **Subsidy Extension**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the extension of cash-for-clunker subsidies for 2026, maintaining Rmb20,000 for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and Rmb15,000 for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) [3][4] - **Local Government Support**: Local governments will provide additional trade-in subsidies of up to Rmb15,000 for NEVs and Rmb13,000 for ICEVs, aligning with previous expectations [3] - **Subsidy Structure**: The new subsidy structure includes a cap on national subsidies at 12% for NEVs and 10% for ICEVs, with local subsidies capped at 8% for NEVs and 6% for ICEVs, indicating a reduction for vehicles priced under Rmb150,000 compared to 2025 [4] Beneficiaries of the Subsidy - **Targeted Models**: Vehicles priced between Rmb150,000 and Rmb200,000 are expected to benefit the most from the subsidies, while premium models from companies like Li Auto, NIO, and Huawei partners may remain unaffected [5] - **Mass-Market Brands**: Brands targeting the mass market may face challenges due to subsidy reductions and a 5% increase in NEV purchase tax [5] - **Supplier Opportunities**: Companies such as Xingyu, Desay, and Foryou are positioned to benefit from their domestic market exposure, while luxury dealers like Zhongsheng are also expected to gain from the subsidy extension [6] Market Outlook - **Sales Expectations**: The timely renewal of policies and the later Chinese New Year in 2026 are anticipated to positively impact January sales, although the sustainability of demand post-CNY will be closely monitored [12] - **Volatility in Auto Stocks**: Despite favorable policy developments, auto stocks are expected to remain volatile, and investors may consider selling after recent rallies due to underlying demand uncertainties [12] - **Wholesale Forecast**: The forecast for passenger vehicle wholesale is projected to decline by 3% year-over-year for the upcoming year [12] Additional Insights - **Subsidy Comparison**: A detailed comparison of the subsidy scheme for 2025 and 2026 indicates that while the upper limits remain unchanged, the price coefficients have been adjusted, potentially affecting the overall subsidy amounts for lower-priced vehicles [13][14] - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts have provided ratings for various companies within the industry, indicating a mix of overweight, equal-weight, and underweight positions based on their market outlook and performance expectations [68][70] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese automotive industry, focusing on subsidy impacts, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Asia Strategy Baskets** provided by Goldman Sachs, which aim to offer investors a platform for generating ideas and tracking Asian equities through various macroeconomic and thematic lenses [1][40]. Core Themes and Insights Value Cyclicals and GARP - The strategy favors **Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)** and **Value Cyclicals** due to uncertainty around market pricing of Federal Reserve cuts, resilient emerging market growth, and above-average equity valuations. GARP has delivered an **8%** and **18%** excess return over the past **3** and **6 months** respectively [4][7]. Macro Divergence - The strategic competition between the **US** and **China** is driving **US reindustrialization**, which is expected to create investment opportunities for Asian companies in the US supply chain. This theme is preferred over European and Chinese sales exposure due to growth headwinds in Europe and China's shift towards targeted stimulus [8][15]. Shareholder Yield - Policy-driven improvements in dividends, buybacks, return on equity (ROE), and governance in **China**, **Korea**, and **Japan** support the recommendation for **High Dividend Yield with Growth**. Key themes include **China Shareholder Return Portfolio**, **Korea Dividend Tax Reform**, and **Japan Buyback Momentum** [9][17]. Earnings Momentum - Dynamic earnings revision factors have consistently delivered alpha across market cycles, with **Consensus Revision Winners vs. Losers** showing a **31 percentage point** year-to-date (YTD) performance and **Strong vs. Weak Earnings Revisions** showing a **43 percentage point** YTD performance [10][23]. Regional Structural Themes AI Beneficiaries - The call highlights the importance of **AI infrastructure** and applications, recommending investments in **AIGC Hardware**, **Semiconductors**, and **Internet/Software** due to strong fundamentals and accelerated adoption [12][27]. Power Up Asia - The strategy emphasizes investments in **Nuclear** for clean baseload power, **Renewables** supported by China's policies, and core holdings in **Power & Electricity** for stable earnings and attractive valuations [12][33]. Defense Spending - Rising geopolitical risks are expected to benefit **Aerospace & Defense** and **Non-Core Defense Suppliers**, making them a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties [12][29]. Market-Specific Themes China - Targeted policies continue to support strategic areas, including the **China 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio** and **Prominent 10** [11][35]. Korea - Governance reforms and value-up programs support dividend tax reform and treasury share cancellations [14][31]. India - The focus is on domestic themes such as self-sufficiency, mass-consumption revival, and new economy sectors, with an upgrade to **Overweight** for India in November [14][37]. Additional Insights - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and borrowing constraints when trading the discussed baskets, as past performance is not indicative of future results [41]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the investment strategies and market dynamics discussed.

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone sector is facing challenges in 2026 due to a super memory cycle affecting DRAM/NAND prices, while the smart EV and AI business remains a focal point for debate. Despite negative sentiment, if Xiaomi's new products can replicate past successes, the stock is expected to recover [1]. Group 1: Smart EV Business - Xiaomi is anticipated to maintain a product upcycle in its smart EV business, with solid traction expected from new models like the upgraded SU7 facelift, YU9-EREV, and YU7 GT variant [2]. - Concerns that Xiaomi's smart EV business in 2026 may underperform like Li Auto's this year are viewed as overly pessimistic, as Li Auto's issues stem from specific product weaknesses and external incidents [2]. - Sales estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been modestly revised down to 651,000 and 931,000 units, respectively, with operating profit forecasts adjusted to RMB7.7 billion and RMB14.9 billion due to lower gross margin estimates and increased R&D costs in AI [2]. Group 2: Traditional Business - Negative sentiment surrounding Xiaomi's traditional business is expected to persist as memory prices continue to rise, leading to a likely negative growth in smartphone shipments for 2026 [2]. - The phase-out of the 2025 national subsidy and uncertainty regarding the 2026 subsidy have raised concerns about Xiaomi's IoT growth [2]. - Despite the negative industry developments, Xiaomi's progress in premiumization and AI is seen as enhancing the company's risk resilience moving forward [2]. Group 3: Valuation - The valuation for Xiaomi's traditional business is set at HK$35.5 per share using a 22x 2026E P/E ratio, while the EV business is valued at HK$20.71 per share, leading to a new sum-of-the-parts target price of HK$56.21, down from HK$69.04 [4].

Core Viewpoint - XPeng (XPEV) reported better-than-expected earnings for its third quarter, benefiting from a significant increase in deliveries driven by new models like the XPeng X9 Multi-Purpose Vehicle, which competes with Li Auto's offerings [1] Group 1 - XPeng's third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations [1] - The company experienced a strong surge in deliveries [1] - The introduction of new models, particularly the XPeng X9, has contributed to its competitive position against Li Auto [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on China EV Makers Industry Overview - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) sector in China - **Current Context**: The sector is experiencing a slowdown in demand as the Q4 volume guidance from major players is below market expectations, indicating a cautious outlook for the auto market as a whole [2][3] Key Company Insights - **XPeng and Nio**: Both companies provided Q4 volume guidance that was below street expectations, suggesting flat sales in November and December compared to October. Their share prices reacted negatively to this news [3] - **Li Auto**: While Li Auto's Q4 volume guidance is more optimistic (approximately 20% higher than October), management expressed caution regarding Q1 2026 volume and indicated weak margin guidance for Q4 2025, projecting a decrease of about 3-4 percentage points from Q3 [3] - **Demand Factors**: The expiration of local government trade-in subsidies is cited as a direct cause for the cooling demand, despite the continuation of central government scrappage subsidies and EV purchase tax exemptions until year-end [3] Market Outlook - **2026 Projections**: The overall domestic passenger vehicle (PV) market is expected to decline by 2%, with the EV market facing growth slowdowns due to policy retreats and diminishing stimulus effects. The premium segment may show resilience, while exports could become a key growth driver for mass-market companies [4][5] - **Strategic Shifts**: Some companies, like XPeng, are diversifying into new areas such as humanoid robots and robotaxis, which may take longer to yield returns [4] Valuation and Investment Strategy - **Cautious Stance**: The report maintains a cautious outlook for the near term, suggesting that the market needs time to adjust to the slowdown in domestic demand and increasing price competition [5] - **Long-term Drivers**: Continuous technological innovation, product mix upgrades, and global expansion are identified as long-term growth drivers for Chinese automakers [5] - **Recommended Companies**: Staying invested in industry leaders like CATL and BYD, as well as valuation-friendly companies like Great Wall Motor (GWM), is suggested as a prudent strategy [5] Risks and Challenges - **Traditional ICE Sector Risks**: Include economic slowdown, excessive capacity leading to oversupply, and regulatory changes affecting demand [7] - **NEV Sector Risks**: Include potential declines in government subsidies, new market entrants, and overcapacity in the NEV battery industry [7][10] - **Valuation Risks for BYD**: Changes in favorable policies, raw material price fluctuations, and overall competition in the NEV market are highlighted as downside risks [8] Conclusion - The conference call reflects a cautious sentiment in the Chinese EV market, with major players adjusting their forecasts downward amid a cooling demand environment. Strategic shifts and long-term growth drivers are emphasized, while various risks remain pertinent to the sector's outlook.