华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第164期 海外CXO 2025财报总结&2026年展望 www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年2月28日 本周专题联系人：王宏雨 | 华创医药团队： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执 ...

Upgrades - TD Cowen upgraded Medpace (MEDP) to Hold from Sell with a price target of $419, down from $462, indicating that shares now reflect fair value [2] - Citizens upgraded Rush Street Interactive (RSI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $24, highlighting the company's durable business model in the online gaming space [2] - Baird upgraded Itron (ITRI) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $128, up from $118, following a positive Q4 report [3] - Rosenblatt upgraded Cadence Design (CDNS) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $360, up from $335, citing solid Q4 results [3] - Mizuho upgraded Palantir (PLTR) to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $195, noting significant revenue growth and margin expansion [3] Downgrades - Citizens downgraded Workday (WDAY) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, due to the return of founder Aneel Bhusri as CEO and the need for time and investments for AI innovation [4] - Williams Trading downgraded Crocs (CROX) to Sell from Hold with a price target of $84, up from $75, citing eroding demand in the U.S. [4] - Citizens downgraded Similarweb (SMWB) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, following a significant revenue miss in Q4 and disappointing guidance [4] - Truist downgraded Genuine Parts (GPC) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $127, down from $162, noting ongoing disappointments in the auto business despite positive business separation [4] - BTIG downgraded Masimo (MASI) to Neutral from Buy after Danaher (DHR) announced an acquisition agreement for $180/share in cash [4]

Core Insights - TransMedics is highlighted as a promising stock with potential for significant growth, projected to triple in value over the next 6-7 years due to its innovative organ care system [2][22] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of identifying AI-native companies that are fully committed to integrating AI into their operations, contrasting them with companies that are resistant to change [3][4] - Market indicators suggest a cautious yet positive outlook for the stock market, with expected annual returns between 8.5% and 10.5%, influenced by cash flow dynamics and margin improvements in technology companies [8][12] Company Insights - TransMedics has developed an organ care system that enhances the viability of donated organs, which is crucial for improving transplant outcomes [2][22] - Aritzia, a Canadian company expanding into the US market, is noted for its strong financial performance and growth potential, with a market cap of approximately $10 billion [22] - United Therapeutics, founded by a NASA scientist, is innovating in the field of organ growth and has a market cap of $20 billion, showcasing a unique approach to addressing rare diseases [21][22] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a significant amount of cash on the sidelines, indicating potential for investment opportunities as this cash flows back into the market [9] - The potential for margin improvements in technology companies is expected to drive higher valuations, with a focus on companies that can leverage AI to enhance productivity [11][12] - The discussion highlights the risk of job displacement due to AI integration, which could lead to wage deflation and impact consumer spending [15][16] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes a cautious approach with stocks like Deere and MSCI, which are seen as stable options [18][20] - Moderate investments are suggested in Intel and United Therapeutics, both of which are positioned to benefit from government support and innovative technologies [20][21] - Aggressive investments focus on TransMedics and Aritzia, both of which are expected to experience substantial growth in their respective markets [22]

Group 1 - Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALAB) decreased by 23.74% after reporting fourth-quarter financial results [1] - Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) slumped 20.69% following its fourth-quarter financial results and multiple analyst price target reductions [2] - Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z) decreased by 20.89% after reporting mixed fourth-quarter financial results [2] - Karman Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KRMN) fell 20.96% this week [2] Group 2 - AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) decreased by 17.9% after announcing a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering [3] - Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:RYAN) slumped 17.90% after reporting worse-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results and announcing a $300 million buyback [3] - Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) fell 18.88% amid sympathy with DraftKings after its fourth-quarter financial results [3] Group 3 - CBRE Group (NYSE:CBRE) decreased by 15.55% despite reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted EPS results and issuing FY26 adjusted EPS guidance above estimates [4]

Core Insights - Giverny Capital Asset Management's portfolio returned 0.01% in Q4 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 2.66% return, and YTD returns were 12.58% compared to the Index's 17.88% [1] - The firm faced challenges due to underweighting in large technology companies and overweighting in smaller niche leaders, despite portfolio companies showing strong earnings growth [1] - The market's focus on AI investments has overshadowed the actual benefits of portfolio companies, which excel in capital returns [1] Company Focus: Medpace Holdings, Inc. - Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) was highlighted as a leading contributor, with a one-month return of 3.86% and a 52-week gain of 69.86% [2] - As of January 29, 2026, Medpace's stock closed at $593.07, with a market capitalization of $16.706 billion [2] - The stock experienced volatility due to fears of funding drying up for biopharmaceutical trials but rebounded as funding remained stable; the company also repurchased about 9% of its shares earlier in the year [3] Market Position and Financial Performance - Medpace Holdings, Inc. was held by 43 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 42 in the previous quarter [4] - The company reported revenue of $659.9 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 23.7% [4] - Despite acknowledging Medpace's potential, the firm believes certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for the year, with varying returns in Q4 2025 and year-to-date (YTD) performance [1] - The firm emphasized a focus on safety and long-term gains, despite the overvalued market conditions reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] - Vulcan Value Partners maintains a disciplined investment approach, aiming to improve price-to-value ratios while navigating current market challenges [1] Performance Summary - The Large Cap Composite (Net) returned -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD - The Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD - The Focus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 7.1% YTD - The Focus Plus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 6.2% YTD - The All-Cap Composite (Net) returned 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD [1] Company Highlight: Medpace Holdings, Inc. - Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) is a healthcare company specializing in clinical research-based drug and medical device development services [2] - The stock traded between $250.05 and $628.92 over the past 52 weeks, closing at $606.27 on January 22, 2026 [2] - Medpace's one-month return was 6.82%, with a 0.18% gain over the last three months, and it has a market capitalization of approximately $17.078 billion [2] Valuation Insights - Vulcan Value Partners noted a weighted average price to value ratio in the mid-50s, indicating a portfolio trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value [3] - The firm acknowledged that while the majority of its MVP list is overvalued, its valuation methodology remains consistent and reliable [3] - The firm expressed confidence in its valuation approach, suggesting that its discounted companies are indeed undervalued compared to the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategies have shown positive returns for the year, with a focus on long-term performance over short-term results [2][5]. Performance Summary - Large Cap Composite (Gross) returned -1.4% QTD, 8.5% YTD, and 10.4% annualized since inception [3][22]. - Small Cap Composite (Gross) returned 3.4% QTD, 10.3% YTD, and 8.3% annualized since inception [3][31]. - Focus Composite (Gross) returned 0.2% QTD, 7.5% YTD, and 14.3% annualized since inception [3][36]. - All Cap Composite (Gross) returned 1.5% QTD, 11.5% YTD, and 11.1% annualized since inception [3][53]. Market Environment - The current market resembles the late 1990s, with concerns about overvaluation and a focus on AI-related stocks [5][6][7]. - AI is seen as a transformative technology, similar to the Internet, but caution is advised regarding valuations [7][9]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes buying only those companies with stable values, often waiting for them to become discounted enough for investment [10][12]. - The portfolio has shifted towards more healthcare and insurance-related businesses, with a focus on smaller companies outside the top 10 largest market capitalizations [11][12]. Notable Holdings - Medpace (MEDP) has shown significant growth, with a stock price increase of over 73% for the year, driven by strong free cash flow and share repurchases [13][14]. - Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. is highlighted for its robust growth and stable margins, despite facing a short-term pricing cycle [24][25][38]. - TransUnion is recognized for its strong operating margins and successful diversification beyond credit reports [26][38]. Performance Contributors and Detractors - Alphabet Inc. and Salesforce Inc. were significant contributors to performance, while CoStar Group and Microsoft Corporation were notable detractors [37][46]. - Fiserv Inc. was a material detractor due to downward guidance and strategic shifts in its business model [30][46]. Market Trends - The small-cap sector has lagged behind large-cap returns, presenting potential opportunities for investment as it is often overlooked [15]. - The dominance of large-cap stocks in market returns continues, with the top 10 S&P 500 stocks accounting for over 50% of its return in 2025 [16].

Core Insights - GeneDx Holdings (WGS) has announced a strategic partnership with Komodo Health to integrate its Infinity platform with real-world patient insights, enhancing the understanding of rare diseases [1][8] - This collaboration is expected to significantly increase the utility and monetization potential of GeneDx's data assets, positioning the company as a key partner in the rare disease market [2] Partnership Details - The partnership combines GeneDx's genomic and phenotypic data with Komodo's Healthcare Map, which tracks healthcare journeys of over 330 million de-identified patients [9] - The integration aims to provide a longitudinal view of rare diseases, linking genetic data with claims-based care patterns to improve patient management and treatment insights [9][10] Market Impact - Following the announcement, WGS shares remained flat in after-market trading, but have increased by 64.3% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 12.7% and the S&P 500's 14.1% [3] - GeneDx currently has a market capitalization of $3.91 billion [6] Long-term Prospects - The partnership is expected to enhance GeneDx's genomic database, making it more commercially valuable and attractive to biopharma companies [4] - By linking genetic insights with real-world outcomes, GeneDx can support drug discovery, clinical trials, and payer discussions, potentially leading to recurring partnerships and durable revenue growth [4] Industry Context - The global rare diseases treatment market is projected to grow from $216.24 billion in 2024 to $374.39 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2025 to 2030 [12]

Core Insights - Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) has achieved a significant commercialization milestone with the launch of the Eversense 365 continuous glucose monitor (CGM) integrated with the twiist automated insulin delivery (AID) system, marking the first pairing of a one-year, implantable CGM with an AID platform [2][3][7] Company Developments - The integration with Sequel MedTech enhances diabetes management by reducing sensor changes and enabling automated insulin adjustments, with broader availability expected by March 2026 [3][10] - The Eversense 365's implantable design allows for uninterrupted glucose monitoring for up to one year, addressing common issues associated with frequent sensor changes [9] - SENS reported a strong improvement in its third-quarter 2025 financial performance, with total revenue rising to $8.1 million from $4.3 million year-over-year, driven by a 160% increase in new patient growth in the U.S. [12] - The company achieved a gross profit of $3.5 million in the quarter, a significant improvement from a gross loss of $4.1 million a year ago, indicating progress in cost structure and operating efficiency [14] Market Position and Trends - Following the announcement of the Eversense 365 launch, SENS shares gained 8%, although they have declined 28.8% over the past six months compared to a 10.5% decline in the industry [4] - The global blood glucose monitoring devices market is projected to grow from $15.53 billion in 2025 to $30.18 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2026 to 2033, driven by the increasing prevalence of diabetes [11]

Industry Overview - The Medical Services sector is rapidly evolving due to digital health advancements, value-based care adoption, and a focus on patient-centric solutions [1] - The global healthcare analytics market is projected to grow from $56.64 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 22.7% through 2035, benefiting payers, providers, and analytics vendors [1] - The industry includes various service providers such as pharmacy benefit managers, contract research organizations, and healthcare workforce solution providers, transitioning from volume-based to value-based care [3] Key Trends - The U.S. digital health market is expected to grow from $92.08 billion in 2025 to $248.11 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 11.6% [4] - The global big data in healthcare market is valued at $110.97 billion in 2025, projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2026 to 2035 [4] - Companies adopting AI technologies have seen a 50% reduction in treatment costs and over 50% improvement in patient outcomes [4] Workforce Challenges - A projected healthcare worker shortage of 100,000 by 2028, including a shortfall of 73,000 nursing assistants, is expected to elevate labor costs [2][5] - The WHO estimates a shortfall of 11 million physicians, particularly in low-income countries, emphasizing the need for workforce expansion [5] - Total hospital expenses increased by 5.1% in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall inflation rate of 2.9% [5] Company Highlights - **Medpace Holdings (MEDP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 17.2% in 2025, with revenues projected to rise by 18.7% from 2024 [19][20] - **Enhabit, Inc. (EHAB)**: Anticipated earnings surge of 161.9% in 2025, with revenue growth of 2.3% [23][24] - **Progyny (PGNY)**: Projected earnings increase of 9.8% in 2025, with revenues expected to grow by 9.2% [26][27] Performance Metrics - The Medical Services industry has gained 6.8% over the past year, in line with the Medical sector, but lagged behind the S&P 500's 19.3% increase [10] - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 16.9X, compared to the S&P 500's 23.3X and the sector's 21.6X [14]