华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第164期 海外CXO 2025财报总结&2026年展望 www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年2月28日 本周专题联系人：王宏雨 | 华创医药团队： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical retail market is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant growth opportunities anticipated in various segments, including traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, and innovative drugs [17][22][46]. Market Overview - The retail scale of China's physical pharmacies for January to November 2025 is projected to reach 557.7 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8%. However, the cumulative scale for October and November is expected to be 108.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [22][30]. - The pharmaceutical retail market is experiencing a recovery phase, driven by ongoing healthcare reforms and the optimization of market structures, which are expected to enhance the industry's long-term growth prospects [22][30]. Category Analysis - **Pharmaceuticals**: The cumulative scale for pharmaceuticals from January to November 2025 is estimated at 453.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%. The sales scale for October and November is projected to be 88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [29]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)**: The cumulative scale for TCM from January to November 2025 is expected to be 42.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.2%. However, November shows a month-on-month growth of 12.5% [30]. - **Medical Devices**: The cumulative scale for medical devices is projected to be 26.1 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4%. The sales scale for October and November is expected to show a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [37]. - **Health Products**: The cumulative scale for health products is anticipated to be 21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.7%. However, November shows signs of recovery with a month-on-month growth of 5.3% [34]. Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from a low valuation environment, with public funds showing low allocation to the sector. The anticipated recovery in macroeconomic factors and the demand for major products are expected to drive growth in the industry [15]. - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, with a focus on differentiated products and internationalization. Companies with strong pipelines and the ability to deliver profits are recommended for investment [15][46]. - The medical device market is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes, with ongoing updates and international expansion opportunities. Companies focusing on innovation and product upgrades are expected to perform well [46]. Specific Product Trends - **Top Chemical Drugs**: In October and November 2025, the top 20 chemical drug categories accounted for 78.3% and 80.0% of the market share, respectively, with significant growth in categories such as anti-tumor drugs and systemic antiviral drugs [40][41]. - **Top Traditional Chinese Medicine Products**: The market share for TCM in November reached 86.4%, with notable growth in cold medications and cough remedies [44][45]. Conclusion - The pharmaceutical retail market is poised for a significant transformation, with various segments showing potential for growth. The ongoing reforms and market dynamics are expected to create a favorable environment for investment in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors [22][30][46].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the potential for significant growth in domestic and international markets [52]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is transitioning from quantity to quality, with a focus on differentiated products and international expansion. Companies like BeiGene, Innovent, and others are highlighted as key players [10]. - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is expected to benefit from government subsidies for home medical devices [10]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the orthopedic market due to aging demographics and the increasing penetration of domestic products [53]. - The blood products sector is expected to grow significantly due to relaxed regulations and increasing demand [12]. Market Overview - The report notes that the medical device index fell by 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.00 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 30 sectors [6]. - The top-performing stocks in the medical sector included Haiwang Biological and Ruikang Pharmaceutical, while the worst performers included ST Jingfeng and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical [6]. Company-Specific Developments - Abbott's cardiovascular business reported revenues of $3.137 billion in Q3 2025, with significant growth in arrhythmia management and electrophysiology segments [17]. - Medtronic's cardiovascular revenue reached $3.436 billion in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in cardiac rhythm and heart failure segments [24]. - Boston Scientific's cardiovascular revenue was $3.343 billion in Q3 2025, with notable growth in the Watchman and electrophysiology segments [31]. - Johnson & Johnson's cardiovascular revenue totaled $2.213 billion in Q3 2025, benefiting from acquisitions and strong growth in electrophysiology products [42]. - Edwards Lifesciences reported cardiovascular revenue of $1.55 billion in Q3 2025, with robust growth in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and mitral/tricuspid valve therapies [48]. Product Pipeline Progress - Abbott's AVEIR™ leadless pacemaker system has shown promising clinical results, while its Volt™ PFA system for atrial fibrillation has received CE certification [20]. - Medtronic's Evolut™ TAVR system has been approved for redo procedures, enhancing its market position [27]. - Boston Scientific's FARAPULSE™ PFA system has received expanded indications for treating persistent atrial fibrillation [36]. - Johnson & Johnson's VARIPULSE platform has been approved for atrial fibrillation treatment, further strengthening its product offerings [45].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple oral cyclic peptide drugs have significant potential, and the industry chain is expected to benefit fully from this development [11][18]. Market Review - The CITIC pharmaceutical index decreased by 6.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 primary industries [7]. - The top ten stocks by increase this week include Hainan Haiyao, *ST Changyao, and *ST Suwu, while the top ten stocks by decrease include Jindike and Haichen Pharmaceutical [7][8]. Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - **Innovative Drugs**: The domestic innovative drug industry is transitioning from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing products that can ultimately generate profits. By 2025, more attention should be paid to differentiated domestic products and international pipelines [9]. - **Medical Devices**: The bidding volume for imaging equipment has significantly rebounded this year, and home medical device markets are benefiting from subsidy policies. The orthopedic sector is expected to see good growth post-collection [9]. - **Innovation Chain (CXO + Life Science Services)**: Overseas investment and financing are expected to continue recovering, while domestic financing is likely to stabilize. The innovation chain wave is anticipated to begin a bottom reversal [9]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The specialty raw material drug sector is expected to see cost improvements, leading to a new growth cycle. Attention should be paid to new volumes from patent expirations and the gradual realization of formulation expansions [10]. Focus on Oral Cyclic Peptide Drugs - **Oral PCSK9 Inhibitors**: These drugs are expected to reshape the lipid-lowering treatment landscape. Current injectable PCSK9 inhibitors have poor patient adherence, and oral formulations could capture market share due to their convenience [11][19]. - **Clinical Data**: Recent clinical data for several oral cyclic peptide candidates in autoimmune and metabolic diseases have shown positive results, indicating a promising future for these therapies [13][19]. Focus on Oral IL-23 Antagonists - **JNJ-2113**: This oral peptide antagonist has shown positive Phase III data and has been submitted for FDA approval. It demonstrates significant efficacy in treating psoriasis, with high response rates compared to existing therapies [28][34]. - **Market Potential**: The annual peak sales for JNJ-2113 across all indications (psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease) are expected to exceed $5 billion [41]. Industry Chain Benefits - Companies involved in the research and production of cyclic peptides are expected to benefit significantly. Notable domestic CXO companies include WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and Kelaiying, with projected growth in net profits and market capitalization [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on innovative drugs, medical devices, and the innovation chain [10][12]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 showed a slight decline of 1.9% year-on-year, with net profit down by 6.8%. However, Q3 2025 saw a revenue increase of 0.5% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential recovery [16]. - The "innovation chain" segment is highlighted as the fastest-growing area within the pharmaceutical industry, with significant contributions from CXO services [16][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on differentiated products and internationalization in the innovative drug sector, suggesting a shift from quantity to quality in product offerings [10][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the medical device index rose by 1.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, ranking 13th among 30 sectors [7]. - The top-performing stocks included 合富中国, 诺思格, and C禾元-U, while the worst performers were 赛诺医疗 and 惠泰医疗 [7]. Industry and Stock Events - The report identifies key trends in various segments, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine, with specific companies recommended for investment [10][12][19]. - The report highlights the recovery in the bidding volume for imaging equipment and the growth of home medical devices, suggesting a favorable market environment for companies like 迈瑞 and 鱼跃 [10]. Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry reported a total revenue of 177.2 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, with a notable decline in the traditional pharmaceutical manufacturing sector [16]. - The innovative drug sector's revenue reached 450.7 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year, despite a significant drop in net profit [19]. - The raw material drug sector showed resilience, with a revenue decline of only 5.2% in Q1-Q3 2025, and companies are encouraged to explore CDMO business opportunities [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the pharmaceutical industry performance for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within various segments, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [15][16]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.64 percentage points, ranking 13th among 30 primary industries [9]. - The top ten stocks by increase included Sainuo Medical (+49.01%) and Huakang Clean (+35.62%), while the top ten stocks by decrease included Sainuo Medical (-25.00%) and Huatai Medical (-14.81%) [6][9]. Industry and Company Events - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with net profit down 6.8% and non-recurring profit down 14.6%. In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 0.5%, but net profit and non-recurring profit still faced declines of 4.1% and 8.6%, respectively [16]. - The "Innovation Chain" segment was the fastest-growing within the pharmaceutical industry, with revenue growth of 12.3% and 10.7% in Q1-Q3 and Q3 2025, respectively [16]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing sector experienced the most significant revenue decline, with specific segments like vaccines and raw materials showing declines of 28.2% and 5.2%, respectively [16]. Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry reported revenues of CNY 17,720 million in Q1-Q3 2025, with a notable decline in various segments, including traditional Chinese medicine and medical devices [15]. - The innovative drug sector saw revenues of CNY 450.7 million in Q1-Q3 2025, marking an 8.1% increase, while net profit decreased by 32.7% [21]. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The raw material drug sector reported revenues of CNY 1,078.3 million in Q1-Q3 2025, with a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 3.6% [25]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the raw material drug sector due to the upcoming patent expirations and the expansion of CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) services [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the innovative pipeline of Enhua Pharmaceutical in the CNS (Central Nervous System) sector, highlighting the company's diverse product offerings and development stages, particularly in anesthetics and psychiatric medications [16][17][22]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.49%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.30 percentage points, ranking third among 30 primary industries [6]. - The top ten stocks by growth included Haichen Pharmaceutical and Changchun High-tech, while the biggest losers were Shutaishen and Guangsheng Tang [6][4]. Overall Perspective and Investment Themes - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to optimism for growth in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025 [11]. - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, emphasizing the importance of differentiated products and internationalization of pipelines [11]. - The medical device market is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes, with home medical devices benefiting from subsidy policies [11]. - The innovation chain (CXO + life sciences services) is expected to see a rebound in investment, with a focus on high-profit elasticity companies [11]. Enhua Pharmaceutical's CNS Innovative Pipeline - Enhua has developed a comprehensive CNS innovative pipeline, with several products advancing to Phase II and beyond [16]. - NH600001, a new intravenous anesthetic, is expected to be approved in 2026, offering advantages over existing anesthetics like etomidate [17]. - NH160030 is a first-in-class oral μ-opioid receptor agonist, currently in Phase I trials, targeting cancer pain with fewer side effects compared to traditional opioids [22]. - NHL35700, an innovative antipsychotic, is in Phase II clinical trials and aims to reduce side effects associated with existing treatments [23]. - NH300231, targeting schizophrenia, is in clinical trials and is positioned against the blockbuster drug Lumateperone [29]. - NH140068 is a new generation treatment for schizophrenia, targeting multiple neurotransmitter receptors, currently in clinical trials [30]. - NH280105, an Lp-PLA2 inhibitor, is being explored for Alzheimer's treatment, currently in clinical trials in Australia [36]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve significant sales growth from innovative products, with a target of launching five new products annually over the next three years [43]. - The company’s innovative product revenue share is projected to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a successful transition from generic to innovative products [43]. - The company is focusing on global competitiveness and external licensing as a key strategic goal, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit elasticity [43].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth and improved adjusted net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by licensing income from Lixin Pharmaceutical [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $519 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 81.92% [3]. - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $25.46 million, a substantial narrowing compared to previous periods [3]. - Adjusted net profit reached $178 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 509.6% [3]. Group 2: Business Segments - The life sciences services and products segment generated revenue of $248 million in H1 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 11.3% [4]. - The adjusted gross profit for the life sciences segment was $126 million, up 5.3% year-over-year [4]. - The CDMO segment saw revenue soar to $247 million, marking a staggering year-over-year increase of 511.1%, becoming the core engine of the company's growth [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively transforming its life sciences business, focusing on automation and global expansion, with plans for full automation of four major factories by the end of 2025 [4]. - The company is enhancing its capabilities in protein and gene editing platforms through innovation and automation upgrades [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The joint venture Legend Biotech is expected to turn profitable, with its core product CARVYKTI achieving net sales of $439 million in Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 136% [6]. - The anticipated profitability of Legend Biotech in 2026 is expected to significantly improve the overall net profit of the company [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, suggesting a potential for diverse investment opportunities as the sector's valuation is currently low [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience growth driven by macroeconomic factors and the performance of major products [9]. - The report emphasizes a shift from quantity to quality in the innovative drug sector, highlighting the importance of product differentiation and internationalization [9]. - The medical device sector is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes and ongoing equipment upgrades, with specific attention on companies like Mindray and Yuyue [9]. - The report identifies a potential rebound in the CXO and life sciences services sector, with expectations of high profit elasticity as companies enter a return-on-investment phase [9]. - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to benefit from policy advantages and market concentration, with specific companies recommended for investment [11]. Summary by Sections Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's comparable company revenue decreased by 0.9%, with a net profit decline of 8.5% [16]. - The medical device sector showed the highest revenue growth among sub-sectors, while traditional Chinese medicine faced the most significant revenue decline [16]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 565.3 billion, a 34.1% increase from the previous year, with several companies achieving profitability for the first time [18][19]. - The report highlights the increasing number of IND and NDA approvals for domestic innovative drugs, indicating a growing presence in international markets [19]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, with a focus on imaging equipment and home medical devices [9]. - The report notes that the orthopedic and neurosurgery fields are seeing improved growth post-collection, with significant attention on companies like Aikang and Weili [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a market rebound for essential medicines, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their unique product offerings and market positioning [11]. Retail and Distribution - The report expresses confidence in the retail pharmacy sector, driven by prescription outflow and an improving competitive landscape [11]. Medical Services - The report suggests that the medical services sector will benefit from anti-corruption measures and the expansion of commercial insurance, enhancing the competitiveness of private healthcare providers [11]. Blood Products - The blood products sector is expected to see growth due to relaxed approval processes and increased demand post-pandemic, with companies like Tiantan Biological and Boya Biological highlighted for their potential [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, with a focus on small-cap companies and their innovative capabilities. The emphasis is on the potential for significant investment returns from these smaller firms as they introduce world-class innovations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Innovation and Market Dynamics - The rise of world-class innovations from smaller companies is highlighted, suggesting that these firms are increasingly capable of delivering significant breakthroughs in technology and products, which can lead to substantial investment opportunities [1]. - The current state of small-cap companies in the Hong Kong stock market is described as severely undervalued, indicating a potential for significant price reversals and investment elasticity [2]. Clinical Trials and Product Development - There is a notable increase in the number of clinical trials being conducted by both new and established companies, with specific mention of companies like 百利链 and 克隆伯泰 showing promising stock performance and long-term value potential [3]. - The report mentions ongoing clinical trials in the oncology sector, particularly the oral formulations and their third-phase data, which are seen as key developments in the industry [2]. Equipment and Device Sector - The medical equipment sector is expected to experience growth due to the recovery of bidding processes and inventory adjustments, with companies like 联营, 开力, and 奥华 being highlighted as key players to watch [4]. - The report notes that the equipment industry is likely to see a positive growth trajectory in the first quarter of the year, driven by increased demand and inventory management [4]. Market Trends in Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is experiencing a downturn, with a projected decline in retail sales for 2024, particularly in categories like cold and flu medications [25][26]. - Despite the overall decline, certain products within the sector, such as 阿胶, are noted for their strong market performance, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry [27]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that there are significant investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in companies with strong clinical capabilities and financial resources, which are expected to benefit from new regulatory measures and market dynamics [12][15]. - The potential for mergers and acquisitions in the life sciences sector is also discussed, with companies like 必得医药 and 奥普麦 actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance their market positions [21]. Economic Indicators and Investment Climate - The investment climate for the biopharmaceutical sector is reported to be improving, with significant increases in investment amounts both domestically and internationally, indicating a robust growth outlook for the sector [18][19]. - The report highlights a positive trend in orders and revenue for the CXO sector, with expectations for many companies to return to double-digit growth in the coming years [19]. Other Important Insights - The introduction of new regulatory measures, such as the three-year data protection period for certain generic drugs, is expected to create a more favorable competitive environment for leading companies in the pharmaceutical industry [12][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small-cap companies and their innovative products, as they may present significant investment opportunities in the evolving market landscape [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the pharmaceutical and medical device industries.