Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: New Materials, specifically lithium, uranium, rare earths, magnets, and solar glass [1][6] - **Market Outlook**: Positive trends expected in lithium and uranium prices due to strong demand, while solar glass faces challenges from oversupply [1][2][3][5] Lithium Market Insights - **Demand Surge**: Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, particularly from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with production up 70% year-over-year [2] - **Price Recovery**: Lithium carbonate prices in China have rebounded to nearly Rmb100,000 per ton, prompting the restart of previously idled production capacity [2] - **Future Growth**: The market anticipates a further 50% growth in ESS production in 2026, leading to a more balanced supply-demand scenario [2] - **Risks**: Six lepidolite mines in Yichun are at risk of temporary shutdowns in 2026, which could impact supply [2] Uranium Market Insights - **Price Momentum**: Strong momentum in uranium prices is expected, supported by major investment vehicles resuming buying in the spot market post-holiday season [3] - **Production Guidance**: Kazatomprom's production guidance for 2026, to be announced early next year, may act as a short-term catalyst for price increases [3] - **Long-term Contracts**: An increase in utilities contracting in November has led to improved long-term prices, currently at US$86 per pound [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: CGN Mining is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices and potential re-rating following the listing of its peer CNUC [3] Rare Earths and Magnets - **Price Strength**: Strong demand in downstream applications has led to robust rare earth prices, supported by China's supply-side controls [4] - **Export Normalization**: Leading magnet producers have received export licenses, normalizing shipments and potentially improving earnings in 2026 [4] Solar Glass Market Insights - **Weak Demand**: Solar glass demand remains weak, with installations in China boosted by a rush due to tariff reforms, leading to a potential decline in installations in 2026 [5] - **High Supply Pressure**: Current supply levels are high at approximately 88,000 tons per day, leading to inventory buildup and price drops to Rmb12 per square meter or lower [5] - **Capacity Adjustments Needed**: Continued capacity exits or maintenance are necessary to balance the market, with new overseas capacity expected to add further supply pressure in 2026 [5] Company-Specific Insights - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Price target raised to HK$62.40 for H-shares, reflecting demand upside from ESS [19] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Price target increased to HK$55.20 for H-shares, with EPS estimates adjusted significantly upward for 2026 [19] - **Sinomine Resources**: Price target raised to Rmb77.00, with EPS estimates showing substantial growth for 2026 [19] - **Xinyi Solar**: Price target decreased to HK$3.40, reflecting longer-term ASP changes despite a positive outlook for EPS in 2025 [21] - **Flat Glass**: Price targets adjusted downward due to expected production declines, with significant changes in EPS estimates for the coming years [21] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: The New Materials sector shows potential for growth, particularly in lithium and uranium, while challenges persist in the solar glass market. Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions, while adjustments in price targets reflect the evolving landscape [1][19][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese equity market, specifically focusing on MXCN and A-shares, which gained 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, with notable outperformance in the Energy and Capital Goods sectors, which increased by 5.0% and 4.9% this week [1][1][1] - The MSCI announced index review results, which are expected to bring approximately US$750 million in passive inflows to China effective November 24, 2025 [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - Trade growth in China has slowed significantly, with exports and imports showing a year-over-year decline of 1.1% and a modest increase of 1.0% respectively in October [1][1][1] - Unofficial manufacturing and services PMIs have both decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [1][1][1] Market Performance - The MXCN/CSI300 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are reported at 13.0x and 14.7x respectively [8][8][8] - Earnings growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 2% and 16% for MXCN, and 14% for CSI300 [8][8][8] Sector Performance - Energy and Value sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Growth sectors lagged behind [7][7][7] - The report highlights that 78% of all Chinese listed companies have reported earnings so far, with 9M/3Q25 earnings rising by 6% and 11% year-over-year [16][16][16] Investment Flows - Southbound Connect saw inflows of US$5.0 billion this week, contributing to a year-to-date total of US$167 billion [3][3][3] - The report indicates that long buys in Asian equities exceeded short sales by a ratio of 3.3 to 1, with Korea experiencing the largest net buying flows [29][29][29] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has established a new department to manage central and local government debt, indicating a proactive approach to fiscal management [1][1][1] - Recent meetings between Chinese officials and US agricultural trade delegations suggest ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize trade relations [1][1][1] Future Outlook - The MSCI China index is projected to see changes in sector weights and potential passive flows, with significant inflows expected in sectors such as Metals & Mining and Health Care [14][14][14] - The report suggests that A-shares are likely to modestly outperform H-shares in the next three months based on proprietary models [37][37][37] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the Chinese equity market remains cautious, with mixed signals from economic indicators and sector performances. However, the anticipated passive inflows from the MSCI rebalancing and ongoing government initiatives may provide support for future market stability and growth [1][1][1][8][8][8]

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the solar industry in China, particularly the dynamics of upstream and downstream pricing, inventory levels, and profitability trends for companies in the sector [1][2]. Key Highlights - **Upstream Price Dynamics**: - Upstream price hikes paused in October, contrasting with a 5% month-over-month increase in September. This pause is attributed to weaker downstream price acceptance, exacerbated by a significant rise in silver paste prices, which increased by 18% month-to-date and constitutes 30%-40% of non-silicon cell processing costs [6][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: - Total poly inventory rose by 7% month-over-month to 275GW in October, with approximately 150GW at poly factory sites, 110GW at wafer factory sites, and 15GW through future contracts [6]. - Glass producer-side inventory days surged by 63% compared to the end of September, reaching 25 days in October, indicating muted shipment activity [6]. - **Production Estimates**: - Monthly poly production is expected to decline by 6% in November and December compared to October, primarily due to capacity suspensions in Central Western China [6]. - New solar glass capacity continues to increase, with one line of 1.2k tons/day launched and multiple new lines scheduled for the near future [6]. - **Export Volumes**: - Cell and module export volumes decreased by 10% and 4% month-over-month, respectively, to 11GW and 28GW. This decline is mainly due to reduced restocking activities as the overseas peak demand season in Europe and the Middle East concludes [6]. Profitability Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - The market is currently pricing in 2026 prices for poly, wafer, module, and glass at Rmb58/kg, Rmb1.8/pc, Rmb0.66/w, and Rmb13/sqm, respectively. This contrasts with Goldman Sachs' estimates of Rmb42/kg, Rmb1.3/pc, Rmb0.67/w, and Rmb10/sqm, indicating an average downside risk of 34% for the covered companies [3][16]. - **Cash Profitability Trends**: - Spot price implied cash profitability remained largely flat in the upstream sector while deteriorating in the downstream sector [10]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for poly-tier 1 was reported at 37%, with a notable decrease in margins for cell and module segments [10]. Sector Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and newly imposed restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to only mildly improve the pricing outlook for poly. Downstream players may still need to reduce selling prices to gain market share amid weak demand [7]. - The long-term profitability outlook remains low without a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [7]. Investment Preferences - The analysis indicates a preference for specific segments within the solar value chain: - **Buy Recommendations**: Film (Hangzhou First), High-efficiency Module (Longi) - **Neutral Recommendations**: Granular Poly (GCL Tech) - **Sell Recommendations**: Glass (Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar), Rod Poly (Daqo ADR/A, Tongwei), Wafer (TZE), and Equipment (Shenzhen S.C. and Maxwell) [7]. Additional Insights - The production-to-demand ratio for the sub-sector is projected to increase to 116% in October from 113% in September, indicating a potential oversupply situation [11]. - Producer-side inventory days are likely to rise to 34 days in October from 30 days in September, further highlighting inventory concerns [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the solar industry in China.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: New Materials in China - **Key Focus Areas**: Lithium, Uranium, Rare Earths, Solar Glass Key Points and Arguments Lithium Market - **Demand**: Year-to-date lithium demand has exceeded market expectations, driven by strong demand from Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and ongoing electric vehicle (EV) trade-in programs [2] - **Supply Risks**: Yichun lepidolite mines are undergoing resource reclassification, which may lead to temporary shutdowns. These mines collectively produce approximately 150,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) annually [2] - **Cost Dynamics**: The cost curve for lepidolite mines is expected to rise due to increased royalties and fees, with cost support estimated at around RMB 70,000 per ton [2] Uranium Market - **Price Momentum**: Strong momentum in uranium prices is anticipated, supported by major investment vehicles like SPUT and Yellow Cake purchasing in the spot market. Long-term prices are expected to rise post-World Nuclear Symposium, with current spot prices around US$83 per pound [3] - **Supply Adjustments**: Production cuts from Kazatomprom and Cameco highlight ongoing supply risks, benefiting CGN Mining, which has increased its spot price exposure to 70% from 60% due to a renewed three-year contract [3] Rare Earths and Magnets - **Price Strength**: Rare earth prices are robust due to strong downstream demand and China's supply-side controls. Magnet producers are expected to pass price increases to customers, improving gross profit margins [4] - **Export Recovery**: Export volumes for magnet producers are normalizing, with anticipated improvements in shipment volumes and earnings in the second half of the year [4] Solar Glass Market - **Demand Decline**: Demand for solar glass has softened in October and is expected to weaken further into winter, leading to inventory build-up and downward pressure on prices [5] - **Earnings Impact**: The anticipated decline in solar glass prices could negatively affect company earnings if no supply-side controls are implemented [5] Additional Insights - **Equity Ratings**: Various companies within the new materials sector have been rated with "Overweight" or "Equal-weight" based on their market positions and expected performance [10][11] - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets for several companies have been adjusted based on updated earnings forecasts and market conditions, reflecting changes in commodity prices and company performance [19][20] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the new materials sector remains attractive, with potential upside from uranium recovery and stable demand in rare earths, despite challenges in lithium and solar glass markets [1][7] Conclusion The new materials sector in China is experiencing mixed dynamics, with strong demand in lithium and uranium markets, while facing challenges in solar glass. Companies are adjusting their strategies and forecasts in response to evolving market conditions, highlighting the importance of monitoring supply risks and price movements in this sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the renewable energy sector in China, particularly the implications of new climate targets set for 2035 by the Chinese government [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **New Climate Targets**: China aims to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels and increase the non-fossil fuel mix in energy consumption to over 30% by 2035, with a specific target of 25% for 2030 [2][7]. 2. **Renewable Capacity Expansion**: The goal is to expand wind and solar capacity to 3600 GW by 2035, a significant increase from 1700 GW in August 2025. However, the implied annual installation rate of approximately 180 GW from 2025 to 2035 is seen as underwhelming compared to the over 230 GW per year achieved from 2021 to 2025 [2][3]. 3. **Support for Non-Electrification Uses**: The National Energy Administration emphasizes the use of renewable energy (RE) for producing green hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia, which could drive additional demand for RE and aid in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like cement and shipping [3][7]. 4. **Challenges and Solutions**: Near-term challenges such as weak power demand and grid curtailments are expected to be resolved as energy storage and grid capacity improve [3]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Top Picks in the Supply Chain**: - **GCL Technology Holdings (3800 HK)**: Target price of HKD 1.80, with a potential upside of 40.6% due to expected recovery in polysilicon and solar glass prices [4][11]. - **Xinyi Solar (968 HK)**: Target price of HKD 4.40, with a potential upside of 28.7%, benefiting from solar glass demand [4][20]. - **Longyuan Power (916 HK/001289 CH)**: Target prices of HKD 8.80 and RMB 21.60 for H and A shares respectively, with potential upsides of 13.7% and 28.2% [4][27]. Financial Highlights - **GCL Technology Holdings**: - Revenue expected to grow from CNY 15,098 million in 2024 to CNY 30,526 million by 2027 [12]. - Net profit projected to turn positive by 2026, reaching CNY 1,133 million [12]. - **Xinyi Solar**: - Revenue forecasted to increase from CNY 21,921 million in 2024 to CNY 28,103 million by 2027 [20]. - Net profit expected to rise to CNY 3,694 million by 2027 [20]. - **Longyuan Power**: - Revenue anticipated to grow from CNY 31,370 million in 2024 to CNY 37,362 million by 2027 [27]. - Net profit projected to reach CNY 8,646 million by 2027 [27]. Risks and Considerations - **GCL Technology Holdings**: Risks include significant drops in polysilicon prices and potential demand issues from international markets due to trade disputes [11]. - **Xinyi Solar**: Risks involve lower-than-expected average selling prices (ASPs) for solar glass and increased competition in the market [11]. - **Longyuan Power**: Risks include lower-than-expected tariffs affecting revenue and potential impairments related to renewable energy subsidies [11]. Additional Insights - The setting of official climate targets for 2035 is seen as a positive development, providing a clearer direction for the renewable energy sector [2][3]. - The focus on renewable energy applications beyond electrification is expected to create new growth opportunities in the sector [3][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction of the renewable energy industry in China and the investment opportunities within it.

Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry in China, specifically tracking the profitability and pricing dynamics of the solar value chain, including Poly, Glass, Wafer, and Module segments [3][12]. Key Highlights 1. **Price Dynamics**: - In September 2025, the solar value chain experienced a price hike of 5% month-to-date (MTD), up from 2% in August, primarily driven by a 15% increase in Glass prices and an 8% increase in Poly prices [3][6]. - The price increase was attributed to active downstream re-stocking activities rather than a recovery in solar installation demand [3][12]. 2. **Inventory and Demand Outlook**: - There is an expectation of a 20% decline in Poly and Glass prices for the remainder of the year due to a buildup of downstream inventory against weak demand [3][12]. - Estimated inventory levels indicate that 130GW of Poly inventory will suffice for module needs, while Glass shipments are projected to decline by 20% month-over-month due to potential production cuts [3][12]. 3. **Sector View**: - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and new restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to have a mild positive impact on Poly pricing, but downstream players will still need to reduce selling prices to maintain market share amid demand weakness [3][12]. - Long-term profitability is anticipated to remain low without a reduction in Tier 1 capacity [3][12]. 4. **Profitability Trends**: - Cash gross profit margins (GPM) and EBITDA margins improved for upstream companies but deteriorated for downstream players in September [5][9]. - The average cash GPM for Poly was reported at 36%, while for Glass, it was 16% [12]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Preferred segments include Film (Buy on Hangzhou First), High-efficiency Module (Buy on Longi), and Granular Poly (Neutral on GCL Tech) [4]. - Least preferred segments include Glass (Sell on Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar) and Equipment (Sell on Shenzhen S.C. and Maxwell) [4]. Additional Insights - The report indicates that the production-to-demand ratio for the solar value chain is expected to increase to 110% in September from 109% in August, suggesting a slight oversupply situation [13]. - Producer-side inventory days are likely to decline to 34 days in September from 37 days in August, indicating a tightening of inventory levels [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the China Solar Profitability Tracker, highlighting the current state of the solar industry, pricing dynamics, inventory levels, and investment recommendations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Solar Industry**, particularly the implications of China's anti-involution policies on the solar value chain [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consolidation of Solar Value Chain**: The consolidation of China's main solar value chain is expected to occur in a more commercial and market-oriented manner, with moderate government guidance. The recovery pace will depend significantly on the progress of the polysilicon industry consolidation [1][2]. - **Price Stabilization**: Prices across the value chain (polysilicon, wafer, cell, module) are likely to stabilize at current levels until early 2026, close to the production costs of top players, due to reduced demand in the second half of 2025 following market tariff reforms [2][3]. - **Challenges in Module Segment**: The solar module segment faces challenges in passing through price recoveries from upstream segments due to weak domestic demand and a fragmented competitive landscape. This may hinder significant price recovery and profitability for Chinese module manufacturers [3][4]. - **Forecasts for Polysilicon and Module Prices**: The base case scenario forecasts polysilicon prices to gradually recover to Rmb49/kg in 2026 and Rmb58/kg in 2027, while module prices are expected to reach Rmb0.72/w and Rmb0.78/w in the same years. Gross margins for integrated module players are projected to improve to 2% in 2026 and 11% in 2027, compared to -7% in 2025 [4]. Investment Implications - **Preferred Stocks**: The analysis favors investments in companies such as **Reliance Industries** in India, **Gulf Development** in Southeast Asia, and US players like **First Solar** and **Shoals Technologies**. Chinese solar auxiliary materials and solar glass players like **Hangzhou First**, **Flat Glass**, and **Xinyi Solar** are also recommended due to their balanced supply-demand dynamics [5][11]. - **Underweight Recommendations**: There is an underweight recommendation for Chinese solar manufacturing equipment suppliers like **Jingsheng** and **Maxwell**, as well as integrated module players such as **LONGi** [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Acquisition Fund Likelihood**: There is a reasonable likelihood of an acquisition fund being initiated by leading polysilicon manufacturers, although the consolidation process may require multiple negotiation rounds to address the interests of acquired companies and regional governments [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation metrics for companies in the solar value chain, indicating a range of P/E ratios and other financial metrics for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11]. - **Stock Performance**: The stock price performance over the past month, three months, and year is provided, showing varying trends across different companies in the solar sector [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global solar industry, particularly in relation to China's market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call on Solar Glass Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the solar glass industry in Greater China, particularly the price trends and inventory levels of solar glass products, specifically 2.0mm products [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Price Increase Expected**: Solar glass producers are planning to raise prices for 2.0mm products to Rmb13/sqm in September, up from Rmb10.5-11/sqm in August, due to lower inventory levels and continuous restocking by module producers [1][2][6]. 2. **Inventory Decline**: Industry inventory has decreased from a peak of 36 days in early July to 24 days recently, with top players having even lower inventory levels of approximately 20 days [3][11]. 3. **Demand Resilience**: Despite concerns over declining demand from module producers after a rush of installations ended on May 31, demand has remained stable, particularly due to strong export demand as China may remove the 9% export tax rebate for module producers later this year [2][4]. 4. **Mixed Outlook from Module Producers**: The production plans for September among module producers are mixed, but orders for solar glass remain solid, with many extending to the end of September [4]. 5. **Potential Market Exits**: If demand from module producers weakens further, it could lead to more glass production lines exiting the market, especially among smaller players facing bankruptcy [5]. 6. **Cost Structure**: The average production cost for the industry is around Rmb13/sqm, while leading players can produce at costs as low as Rmb11/sqm due to cheaper natural gas and improved furnace technology [6]. 7. **Earnings Recovery Potential**: The combination of higher prices and lower production costs is expected to lead to earnings recovery for leading players like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass in the second half of 2025 [6]. Additional Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The supply reduction from leading players, who had production lines suspended in July and August, has contributed to the price increase and inventory decline [2]. - **Market Stability**: The potential exit of weaker players from the market could stabilize solar glass prices, even if demand fluctuates [5]. - **Analyst Ratings**: The overall industry view is considered attractive, indicating positive sentiment towards the solar glass sector [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the solar glass industry, highlighting price trends, inventory levels, and market dynamics that could influence investment decisions.

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,911, with a year-to-date increase of 24.2% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) decreased by 0.2% to 8,933, with a year-to-date increase of 22.5% [1] - The MSCI China index rose by 0.3% to 80, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil price decreased by 1.0% to US$67 per barrel, with a year-to-date decline of 7.5% [2] - Gold prices fell by 0.3% to US$3,369 per ounce, but showed a year-to-date increase of 28.4% [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remained stable at 1,970, with a significant year-to-date increase of 97.6% [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - US unit labor costs increased by 6.6% as of August 7, 2025, significantly above the consensus of 1.5% [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 222,000, slightly lower than the previous week's 218,000 [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% as of August 12, 2025 [3] Company-Specific Insights ADNOC Gas - ADNOC Gas reported a 16% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025 earnings to US$1,385 million, exceeding forecasts by 16% [5][7] - The company has upgraded its full-year guidance for sales volume and margin, leading to a 5-6% increase in earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][7] - The target price for ADNOC Gas has been raised to AED3.86, maintaining a BUY rating [6][7] Uni-President China - Uni-President China (UPC) reported a 10.6% increase in revenue and a 33.2% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, both slightly above expectations [8][11] - Management anticipates a long-term revenue growth rate of 6%-8%, although demand for instant noodles and beverages may fluctuate in the second half due to competition in food delivery [9][11] - The target price for UPC remains at HK$10.40, implying a P/E ratio of 18.2x for 2025 and 16.2x for 2026, with a BUY rating maintained [10][11] Automotive Sector Update - The automotive sector is focusing on Q2 2025 results and sales outlook for the second half of the year, alongside potential policy changes in 2026 [14][17] - There is a consensus regarding the reduction of NEV purchase tax benefits from 10% to 5%, and the continuation of local government subsidies [15][17] - Short-term trading opportunities are expected in the automotive sector, particularly for stocks like Geely and BYD, influenced by seasonal demand and new model launches [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Xinyi Energy (XYE) reported a 23% year-on-year increase in net profit for 1H25, driven by higher power generation, reduced interest expenses, and lower tax expenses, despite a decline in gross margin due to worsening curtailment [1][2]. Financial Performance - XYE's net profit reached RMB450 million in 1H25, reflecting a 23% YoY growth, attributed to increased power generation and a 19% YoY reduction in interest expenses [2]. - Gross margin decreased to 61.8%, down 2.5 percentage points YoY, primarily due to deteriorating curtailment [2]. - Income tax expenses fell by 17% YoY, benefiting from lower withholding tax in 1H25 [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HK$0.029 per share, a 26% increase YoY, maintaining a 50% payout ratio [2]. Strategic Moves - XYE has demonstrated prudent asset acquisition strategies, acquiring only 30MW of new projects in 1H25 while awaiting clarity on provincial tariff policies [3]. - The company is pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in Malaysia, where it is set to begin construction on a 100MW joint venture solar farm in 2H25, which is expected to enhance profitability in the long term [4]. Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains a BUY rating with a DCF-based target price of HK$1.50, factoring in lower interest rates and tax expenses [4]. - The target price implies a 4.1% dividend yield for 2026E, assuming a 50% payout ratio [4]. - A key catalyst for XYE in 2H25 is the potential collection of overdue subsidies, which has not yet been fully anticipated by the market [4].