证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（7.14-7.20）：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，6 月全国 用电量同比+5.4% | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 21.49 | 19.3 | | 600163.SH | 中闽能源 | 增持 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 13.58 | 12.93 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 15.45 | 14.35 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 11.36 | 9.73 | 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 板块市场表现： （1）行业估值：本周（2025.7.18）申万公用事业行业指数 PE（TTM） 为 17.2 倍 ...

证券研究报告|公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 龙源电力（001289.SZ） 存量焕新夯实基本盘，增量进击开启新增长 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 38,052 | 37,070 | 35,731 | 38,785 | 41,508 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -4.5 | -2.6 | -3.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,303 | 6,345 | 6,627 | 7,351 | 7,946 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 23.3 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | | ROE（%） | 8.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 0.95 | | P/E（倍） | 21.7 | 21.6 | 20.6 | 18.6 | 17.2 | | P/B（倍） | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月21日 公用环保 202507 第 3 期 优于大市 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.09%，公用事业指数下跌 1.37%，环 保指数下跌 0.49%，周相对收益率分别为-2.46%和-1.58%。电力板块子 板块中，火电下跌 1.04%；水电下跌 2.13%，新能源发电下跌 0.68%；水 务板块下跌 0.57%；燃气板块上涨 0.31%。 重要事件：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治 区林芝市举行。国家领导出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工。雅鲁藏 布江下游水电工程位于西藏自治区林芝市。工程主要采取截弯取直、隧 洞引水的开发方式，建设 5 座梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元。工程电 力以外送消纳为主，兼顾西藏本地自用需求。国家统计局发布 6 月份发 电量数据，6 月规上工业发电量 7963 亿千瓦时，同比增长 1.7%，增速 比 5 月份加快 1.2 个百分点。 专题研究：甘肃省发改委于 2025 年 7 月 14 日发布《甘肃省关于建立发 电侧容量电价机制的通知（征求意见稿）》，对发电侧容量电价的实施 范围、容量电价标准、容量电费分 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 重视港股电力设备核心资产 6 月能源数据分析 风电设备：（1）风机快速大型化导致新产品的推出周期大幅变短，而大型电力设备的新产品利润率此时 通常会走低（前期更注重份额且成本不易控制）；（2）整机环节集中度持续走高且无新竞争者进入足以 证明风电整机壁垒够高。当前风机大型化速度显著放缓，因此我们看好风电整机利润改善。 投资分析意见：重视港股电力设备核心资产投资机会，煤电核准强度超出预期，抽蓄建设维持高位，风 电需求稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [4][64]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights and the implementation plans in Zhejiang and Hainan provinces [3][35]. - The public utility sector index increased by 1.11% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [2][12]. - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the renewable energy sector due to favorable policies and expected improvements in project performance [8][7]. Market Performance - The public utility sector index's PE (TTM) is 17.43, slightly up from 17.38 the previous week, and down from 18.94 a year ago [23][26]. - The public utility sector index's PB (TTM) is 1.75, up from 1.74 the previous week, and down from 1.98 a year ago [26]. - The top-performing stocks for the week include Huayin Power (+40.89%), YN Energy (+25.1%), and Jingyun Tong (+22.32%) [29][30]. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set binding indicators for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2025 [35]. - The report discusses the establishment of zero-carbon parks and the implementation of green electricity direct connection plans in Yunnan province [36][37]. - Hainan's pricing mechanism for new energy projects has been clarified, with competitive pricing ranges established for onshore and offshore wind projects [37][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 624 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.3% [42]. - The trading volume of wind and solar energy certificates totaled 5.4 and 3.65 million respectively during the week [45]. - The national CEA trading volume for the week was 51.5 thousand tons, with an average price of 74.30 CNY/ton [49][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 mandates green electricity consumption in five major industries, which is expected to alleviate renewable energy consumption issues [3][11] - The assessment scope has expanded to include steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers, enhancing the focus on energy-intensive industries [3][12] - The provincial assessment targets for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights will range from 24.2% to 70% in 2025, with 19 provinces aiming for over 30% [3][15] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electricity and public utilities index rose by 1.60% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.78 percentage points [5][55] - The report highlights that over half of the listed companies in the electricity and public utilities sector experienced stock price increases [55] Key Industry Insights - The coal price has rebounded to 627 CNY/ton [13] - The inflow and outflow of water at the Three Gorges Dam decreased by 17.86% and 24.19% year-on-year, respectively [31] - The price of silicon materials remained stable, while mainstream silicon wafer prices decreased slightly [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the electricity sector due to the high temperatures across the country and the upcoming performance period [3] - Recommended stocks include Huaneng International, Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Qingda Environmental Protection, which are expected to have resilient quarterly earnings [3] - Emphasis on undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in Hong Kong and wind power sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand balance and favorable competition dynamics, particularly recommending companies like Anhui Energy and Huadian International in the thermal power sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the carbon neutrality sector rising by 3.52% and the environmental protection sector increasing by 3.07% during the week [12]. - It emphasizes the importance of market dynamics and regulatory changes, such as the approval of the cross-grid electricity trading mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [75]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.36% during the week [12]. - The thermal power sector is recommended for investment due to its potential for asset value reassessment in regions with tight electricity supply [4]. Industry News - The report discusses the recent regulatory developments aimed at enhancing the electricity market's efficiency and interconnectivity, including the implementation of a market mechanism for cross-grid electricity trading [75]. - It also notes the ongoing reforms in the renewable energy sector, particularly in Hainan Province, to correct market interventions and ensure fair pricing for new energy projects [75]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends Anhui Energy and Huadian International due to their strategic positioning in competitive markets [4]. - In the hydropower sector, it suggests focusing on Yangtze Power, while for nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power is highlighted as a key player [4]. - In the renewable energy segment, Longyuan Power is identified as a leading wind power operator worth monitoring [4].

证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-043 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2025 年第五期超短期融资券发行的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 17 日召开 的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过了《关于龙源电力集团股份有限公司在境内申请 注册及发行债务融资工具一般性授权的议案》，批准并同意授权董事会决定及处 理公司以一次性或分期的形式通过中国证监会、深圳证券交易所、国家发展改革 委、中国保险资产管理业协会等机构审批、注册、登记、发行或设立债务融资工 具，新增规模合计不超过人民币 500 亿元（含 500 亿元）；以统一注册或分品种 注册的形式向中国银行间市场交易商协会注册债务融资工具，可采取分期方式发 行，新增规模合计不超过人民币 800 亿元（含 800 亿元）；股东大会同意董事会 在授权范围内转授权公司管理层处理相关事宜。 董 事 会 2025 年 7 月 11 日 2 | 超短期融资券全称 | 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 | | | 2 ...