Q2 收入仍显韧性，维持"买入"评级 公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 公司实现营收2927.57 亿，同比+2.66%，归母、扣非净利润为54.26、48.21 亿，同比-13.81%、-22.66%。其中，25Q2单季实现营收1501.97 亿，同比+3.57%，归母、扣非净利润为 27.91、22.23亿，同比分别-14.17%、-30.8%。公司作为水电建设龙头企业，作为主要参建方，有望充分 受益于雅下水电工程项目建设。考虑到上半年经营情况，我们下调公司25-27 年归母净利润 120.5/130.5/141.3 亿（前值分别为128/140/157 亿），维持"买入"评级。 工程和电力投运业务稳健增长，新能源开发建设稳步推进分业务来看，25H1 工程承包与勘测设计/电力 投资与运营/其他业务分别收入2659.31/123.91/135.61 亿，同比分别+3.19%/+1.73%/-5.42%，其中，新能 源投资运营收入54.78 亿，同比+0.89%。主营业务分地区来看，境内/境外分别收入2481.68/437.15 亿 元，同比+2.14%/+5.98%。截至25H1，公司控股并网装机3515 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huace Navigation, indicated that the Yaluzangbu project is in its early construction phase, and its related business revenue currently constitutes a small proportion of the company's total income, thus not significantly impacting overall revenue [2] Group 1: Project Involvement - The company is actively participating in the Yaluzangbu River downstream hydropower project, which is expected to create market opportunities in sectors such as construction and infrastructure, resources and public utilities, and geospatial information [2] - The project involves the use of RTK high-precision receivers and 3D scanning intelligent equipment for engineering surveying and construction, as well as GNSS displacement monitoring equipment for water dam monitoring [2] Group 2: Revenue Impact and Uncertainty - Currently, the revenue from the Yaluzangbu project is minimal and has not had a major impact on the company's income [2] - The project has a long cycle, and there is uncertainty regarding the company's future level of participation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has not yet participated in the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project but recognizes the opportunity and intends to leverage its business strengths to actively engage in the bidding process [1] Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and is committed to participating in the bidding process [1] - The bidding process for the project involves multiple stages and is influenced by various factors such as project progress, bidding rules, and market competition, leading to uncertainty regarding the company's successful participation [1] - The company will adhere to information disclosure regulations and will provide timely updates based on the project's subsequent developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively involved in the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which is set to begin on July 19, 2025, marking the start of the construction phase for the Motuo hydropower station [1] Group 1 - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to create hundreds of thousands of job opportunities during the construction period [1] - The project is anticipated to drive rapid growth in related industries such as cement, steel, and civil explosives [1] - The company aims to proactively promote cooperation and provide better products and services for the construction of the Motuo hydropower station [1]

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, referred to as "Yaxi Hydropower," commenced construction on July 19, with ongoing developments since then [1] - China Three Gorges Corporation and China Yajiang Group held discussions and signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deepen collaboration on the Yaxi Hydropower project [1] - China Yajiang Group has been established as a new central enterprise to promote the construction and operation of the Yaxi Hydropower project, with its first leadership team officially appointed [1] Group 2 - Yu Bing, the newly appointed chairman and party secretary of China Yajiang Group, has extensive experience in the electric power industry, having held various senior positions in China Power Investment Corporation and China Huadian Corporation [2] - Wang Wubin, the general manager and deputy party secretary of China Yajiang Group, has a long tenure in the water resources sector, primarily within the Three Gorges Group [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, which is expected to significantly boost the demand for civil explosives in the Tibet region [1][3][10] - The project involves an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, with the potential to create a demand for several hundred thousand tons of industrial explosives [3][11] - The hydropower project is a key investment project as outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission for the 2025 economic development plan [1][9] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and will construct five tiered power stations [3][11] - The theoretical hydropower resource in Tibet is over 200 million kilowatts, accounting for 30% of the national total, with the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin being the most resource-rich area [1][9] Demand for Explosives - The construction of the hydropower project is projected to generate a demand for several hundred thousand tons of industrial explosives, based on the investment scale [3][11] - In 2024, the industrial explosive production and sales volume in Tibet is around 52,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10% in early 2025 [3][11] Company Capacities - Several listed companies have established explosive production capacities in Tibet, including Gaozheng Explosives, Tibet Poly Jiulian, and others [4][15] - In 2024, the revenue from the southwestern (or Tibetan) region for these companies is projected to be significant, with Gaozheng Explosives' revenue from Tibet accounting for 76% of its total revenue [17][18] Financial Performance - The financial performance of companies in the explosive sector shows that Gaozheng Explosives has a high profit margin from its operations in Tibet, with a gross profit of 4.6 billion yuan, representing 89% of the company's total gross profit [17][18] - The revenue growth for companies like Guangdong Hongda in the Tibetan market has been substantial, with increases of 65.15% and 32.41% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [20]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Industrial Machinery Index increased by 0.49%, with notable stocks such as Iron Construction Heavy Industry hitting the daily limit up and others like Jepter and Jingzhida rising by 3.61% and 2.96% respectively [1] - The Sci-Tech Machinery ETF (588850) has seen a weekly increase of 6.49% as of July 22, 2025, indicating strong market performance [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Industrial Machinery Index account for 48.05% of the index, with Zhongkong Technology and Bichu Electronics being the largest contributors [1][3] Group 2 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, officially commenced construction on July 19, 2025 [3] - The project is expected to create significant demand for construction machinery and equipment due to its large scale and long construction period, similar to the Three Gorges Project [4] - Companies with capabilities in new energy, unmanned operations, and large-tonnage complete equipment are likely to benefit from the challenging working conditions in Tibet [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zoomlion is expected to deeply participate in the core aspects of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which is a significant national strategic initiative with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is around 1.2 trillion yuan [1] - The construction of the project is anticipated to positively impact the demand for engineering machinery and equipment [1] Group 2: Equipment Demand - The project is expected to have substantial demand for earthmoving machinery, concrete machinery, lifting machinery, foundation construction machinery, and tunnel boring machinery [1] Group 3: Company Positioning - Zoomlion, as a leading global high-end equipment manufacturing company, has established long-term strategic partnerships with the contractors related to the project [1] - The company is well-positioned to engage in the core construction phases of the project [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Electric (01072.HK) experienced a dramatic surge, reaching a peak of 119.9 HKD per share, which is over a 700% increase compared to the previous trading day's closing price, likely due to a trading error [1][3]. Company Overview - Dongfang Electric is a large enterprise controlled by Dongfang Electric Group, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since June 1994. The group, founded in 1958, is a significant state-owned enterprise responsible for national energy security and is one of the largest energy equipment manufacturing groups globally [3]. - The company has established a diversified industrial structure, including six types of power generation (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, gas, and coal) and six industries (high-end petrochemical equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection, engineering and international trade, modern manufacturing services, power electronics and control, and emerging industries) [3]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Dongfang Electric reported total revenue of 69.695 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.86%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.70% to 2.922 billion CNY [3]. Industry Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the ongoing construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to benefit leading suppliers of hydropower equipment and core equipment for power grid delivery projects in the long term [3]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) estimates that the installed capacity of the Yarlung Tsangpo project could be approximately three times that of the Three Gorges Project, indicating significant potential for long-term benefits for companies in the industry [4]. - The hydropower equipment sector in China has achieved full localization, and the Yarlung Tsangpo project is expected to utilize GIL technology, which will be advantageous for related companies in securing orders and improving performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Dongfang Electric (HK01072) experienced a significant and unusual spike, rising over 700% due to a suspected erroneous trade, which was later corrected, but the stock still closed with a substantial gain of 65.21% [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - At 9:30:22 AM, a trade occurred at 119.90 HKD per share for 400 shares, amounting to approximately 47,960 HKD, which was a drastic increase from the previous price of 19.32 HKD per share [1][2]. - Following the erroneous trade, the stock price quickly corrected to around 20.85 HKD per share [1]. - Despite the correction, Dongfang Electric closed at 24.65 HKD per share, reflecting a 65.21% increase [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The erroneous trade was speculated to be a result of a trader mistakenly entering 119.90 HKD instead of 19.90 HKD [2]. - The A-share of Dongfang Electric also hit the daily limit up, closing at 19.62 CNY [3]. - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project in Tibet contributed to a broader market rally in related sectors such as infrastructure and cement [3].