据《经济参考报》日前报道，福建省永安抽水蓄能电站在建的下水库工程，被指在大坝施工中存在严重偷工减料问题，工程存在重大安全隐患。该工程由中 国电建子公司水电三局承建。 11月29日，中国电力建设集团(下称中电建集团)发布情况通报称，已成立调查组，将会同有关方面全面调查核实，依法依规处理。中国电建为中电建集团下 属上市公司。 这一事件的背后，是抽水蓄能电站自2022年起的超预期增长，以及抽蓄工程建设"一家独大"的格局。 智通财经见习记者 | 张雨薇 中国电建(601669.SH)正陷入"偷工减料"风波。 中邮证券研报分析称，近些年大量建设抽蓄电站的原因之一是，抽蓄电站相比新型储能、需求侧响应等调节手段，是一种经过时间验证的成熟的大规模长时 储能方式，随着风光渗透率和电网的安全压力的持续提升，抽蓄能够有效缓解电网的安全压力。 此外，其具有逆周期调节和扶贫的双重作用。以2024年抽蓄电站的静态投资水平测算，1 GW的抽蓄电站的静态投资规模为57.7亿元。抽蓄电站的开发能够 有效促进当地基础设施提升和助力乡村振兴。 2021年，国家发改委印发《关于进一步完善抽水蓄能价格形成机制的意见》，明确抽蓄电站的"容量电价+电量电 ...

Core Insights - China Electric Power Construction Water Resources Seven Bureau (referred to as "Water Resources Seven Bureau") has evolved from a domestic engineering builder to a globally competitive comprehensive enterprise over the past sixty years, reflecting the technological progress and market-oriented transformation of China's hydropower industry [1] Historical Development - The Water Resources Seven Bureau's predecessor, the Sanmenxia Engineering Bureau, participated in the construction of the Sanmenxia Hydropower Station, marking the beginning of large-scale water conservancy construction in New China in 1957 [2] - The bureau faced challenging conditions during the construction of the Gongzui Hydropower Station, which took thirteen years to complete and established a strong work ethic that became the foundation for its future development [2] - The completion of the Tongjiazui Hydropower Station in 1996 marked the end of directive engineering tasks and the beginning of a market-oriented development phase for the Water Resources Seven Bureau [3] Technological Breakthroughs - After the directive engineering phase, the Water Resources Seven Bureau began its market-oriented transformation, achieving significant milestones such as the construction of the Three Gorges Project and the Longtan Hydropower Station, which set records in concrete pouring and turbine installation [4][5] - The bureau has installed nearly 500 various types of hydropower generating units, with a total installed capacity exceeding 60 million kilowatts, earning over 300 honors including national engineering milestone awards [5] International Expansion - With the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the Water Resources Seven Bureau expanded its business internationally, engaging in projects across South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe [6] - Notable international projects include the Bagun Hydropower Station in Malaysia, the Roseries Hydropower Station in Sudan, and the PKM Highway in Pakistan, which have become regional benchmarks [6][7] Future Development Goals - The Water Resources Seven Bureau is focusing on high-quality development aligned with China's dual carbon goals, implementing a strategic plan known as "3331" to enhance its project management and execution standards [9] - The company is actively expanding its clean energy project portfolio, including significant advancements in hydropower and renewable energy sectors [12] Cultural and Social Responsibility - The Water Resources Seven Bureau emphasizes the importance of party building and corporate culture, fostering a spirit of resilience and innovation while fulfilling social responsibilities through various domestic and international projects [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite a decline in net profit, supported by resilient revenue and potential benefits from the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 292.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.81% to 5.43 billion [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 150.20 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 14.17% to 2.79 billion [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 11.23%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2: Business Segments - Revenue from engineering contracting and surveying design, power investment and operation, and other businesses in H1 2025 was 265.93 billion, 12.39 billion, and 13.56 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.19%, +1.73%, and -5.42% [2] - The company’s installed capacity as of H1 2025 was 35.16 million kilowatts, with year-on-year increases in wind power (20.45%) and solar power (60.87%) [2] Group 3: New Contracts and Growth Potential - The company signed new contracts worth 686.70 billion in H1 2025, achieving 49.13% of the annual target, with a year-on-year increase of 5.83% [4] - New contracts in the energy and power sector totaled 431.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.27%, with significant growth in wind power contracts [4] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has officially commenced, positioning the company to benefit from this long-term investment [4]

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, marking a new phase in China's clean energy development and reshaping the global hydropower landscape [1] - The project is expected to boost demand across the upstream and downstream industrial chains, particularly for steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, and waterproof materials, acting as a stabilizer against short-term demand fluctuations [1][2] - The project is estimated to generate a total value of 53.5 to 95.4 billion yuan for related turbine and generator businesses, potentially becoming a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government is releasing favorable policies for the building materials sector, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcing that work plans for ten key industries will soon be introduced to stabilize growth [2] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 24.87 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6%, indicating a strong demand for construction materials [2] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project will gradually release demand across various industrial chains, including hydropower construction, infrastructure, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, and cement supply [2][3] Group 3 - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottom region and improving cost-effectiveness for investments in building materials, infrastructure, and steel sectors [3] - The coal sector, previously underperforming, also shows significant potential for valuation recovery, with dividend yields exceeding 5%, providing a safety margin for investors [3] - The anticipated implementation of special bonds and supportive fiscal policies is expected to gradually manifest in investment and physical volume, with infrastructure investment projected to maintain steady growth throughout the year [3][4] Group 4 - The building materials industry is expected to experience a turnaround in profitability in 2025, with continued demand improvement potentially leading to greater recovery opportunities [4] - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities arising from the industry's marginal improvement and turnaround [4] - The building materials ETF, which tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, has a leading scale of 623 million yuan as of July 18, 2025, indicating strong investor interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate demand across multiple industries, including construction materials and infrastructure [3]. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River project is a national strategic initiative that encompasses hydropower construction, infrastructure development, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, civil explosives, and cement supply, which will gradually release demand along the upstream and downstream industrial chains [3]. - Recent central urban work meetings have emphasized the need to advance the renovation of urban villages and old housing, as well as the upgrading of outdated pipelines, which is likely to accelerate the introduction of related supporting policies, thereby boosting demand for construction materials and infrastructure [3]. Supply Side - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and construction materials. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of initiatives to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [3]. - The construction industry has advocated against "involution," and the China Cement Association has issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the cement sector, indicating that these policies may improve the industry landscape and benefit leading companies in the construction and materials sectors [3]. Investment Perspective - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating that the bottom region is becoming clearer and the cost-effectiveness of investments is improving [4]. - Sectors such as construction materials, infrastructure, and steel are expected to directly benefit from the implementation of "super projects," with significant potential for both performance and valuation expansion. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to construction materials ETF (159745), infrastructure ETF (159619), and steel ETF (515210) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the "Yaxia" hydropower station construction, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion, is expected to boost infrastructure investment growth and stabilize economic expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The "Yaxia" hydropower station project is anticipated to drive infrastructure investment growth, enhancing economic stability [1] - Recent improvements in international conditions, including the U.S. fiscal expansion plan, are expected to alleviate recession fears and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Ongoing efforts to reduce "involution" domestically are likely to ease overcapacity expectations, positively impacting profit forecasts [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong opening and continued upward momentum, with a trading volume of approximately 1.7 trillion, significantly higher than the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed near its daily high, indicating a rapid increase in short-term gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index approached its yearly high [1] - The market's focus was primarily on infrastructure-related sectors, with small and mid-cap stocks leading in gains [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has accelerated its upward movement after breaking through a trading range established in the previous months [1] - The main technical resistance level is identified at the high point from early October of the previous year, which also represents the top of a weekly trading range [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]