Q2 收入仍显韧性，维持"买入"评级 公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 公司实现营收2927.57 亿，同比+2.66%，归母、扣非净利润为54.26、48.21 亿，同比-13.81%、-22.66%。其中，25Q2单季实现营收1501.97 亿，同比+3.57%，归母、扣非净利润为 27.91、22.23亿，同比分别-14.17%、-30.8%。公司作为水电建设龙头企业，作为主要参建方，有望充分 受益于雅下水电工程项目建设。考虑到上半年经营情况，我们下调公司25-27 年归母净利润 120.5/130.5/141.3 亿（前值分别为128/140/157 亿），维持"买入"评级。 工程和电力投运业务稳健增长，新能源开发建设稳步推进分业务来看，25H1 工程承包与勘测设计/电力 投资与运营/其他业务分别收入2659.31/123.91/135.61 亿，同比分别+3.19%/+1.73%/-5.42%，其中，新能 源投资运营收入54.78 亿，同比+0.89%。主营业务分地区来看，境内/境外分别收入2481.68/437.15 亿 元，同比+2.14%/+5.98%。截至25H1，公司控股并网装机3515 ...

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, marking a new phase in China's clean energy development and reshaping the global hydropower landscape [1] - The project is expected to boost demand across the upstream and downstream industrial chains, particularly for steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, and waterproof materials, acting as a stabilizer against short-term demand fluctuations [1][2] - The project is estimated to generate a total value of 53.5 to 95.4 billion yuan for related turbine and generator businesses, potentially becoming a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government is releasing favorable policies for the building materials sector, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcing that work plans for ten key industries will soon be introduced to stabilize growth [2] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 24.87 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6%, indicating a strong demand for construction materials [2] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project will gradually release demand across various industrial chains, including hydropower construction, infrastructure, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, and cement supply [2][3] Group 3 - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottom region and improving cost-effectiveness for investments in building materials, infrastructure, and steel sectors [3] - The coal sector, previously underperforming, also shows significant potential for valuation recovery, with dividend yields exceeding 5%, providing a safety margin for investors [3] - The anticipated implementation of special bonds and supportive fiscal policies is expected to gradually manifest in investment and physical volume, with infrastructure investment projected to maintain steady growth throughout the year [3][4] Group 4 - The building materials industry is expected to experience a turnaround in profitability in 2025, with continued demand improvement potentially leading to greater recovery opportunities [4] - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities arising from the industry's marginal improvement and turnaround [4] - The building materials ETF, which tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, has a leading scale of 623 million yuan as of July 18, 2025, indicating strong investor interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate demand across multiple industries, including construction materials and infrastructure [3]. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River project is a national strategic initiative that encompasses hydropower construction, infrastructure development, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, civil explosives, and cement supply, which will gradually release demand along the upstream and downstream industrial chains [3]. - Recent central urban work meetings have emphasized the need to advance the renovation of urban villages and old housing, as well as the upgrading of outdated pipelines, which is likely to accelerate the introduction of related supporting policies, thereby boosting demand for construction materials and infrastructure [3]. Supply Side - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and construction materials. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of initiatives to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [3]. - The construction industry has advocated against "involution," and the China Cement Association has issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the cement sector, indicating that these policies may improve the industry landscape and benefit leading companies in the construction and materials sectors [3]. Investment Perspective - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors has shifted from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating that the bottom region is becoming clearer and the cost-effectiveness of investments is improving [4]. - Sectors such as construction materials, infrastructure, and steel are expected to directly benefit from the implementation of "super projects," with significant potential for both performance and valuation expansion. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to construction materials ETF (159745), infrastructure ETF (159619), and steel ETF (515210) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the "Yaxia" hydropower station construction, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion, is expected to boost infrastructure investment growth and stabilize economic expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The "Yaxia" hydropower station project is anticipated to drive infrastructure investment growth, enhancing economic stability [1] - Recent improvements in international conditions, including the U.S. fiscal expansion plan, are expected to alleviate recession fears and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Ongoing efforts to reduce "involution" domestically are likely to ease overcapacity expectations, positively impacting profit forecasts [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong opening and continued upward momentum, with a trading volume of approximately 1.7 trillion, significantly higher than the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed near its daily high, indicating a rapid increase in short-term gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index approached its yearly high [1] - The market's focus was primarily on infrastructure-related sectors, with small and mid-cap stocks leading in gains [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has accelerated its upward movement after breaking through a trading range established in the previous months [1] - The main technical resistance level is identified at the high point from early October of the previous year, which also represents the top of a weekly trading range [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders [1][2] - The project is estimated to have a capacity of 60 million kW, with an average construction cost of 20,344 yuan/kW for hydropower projects in 2023 [1][2] - The project is anticipated to have a construction period of 15-20 years, leading to an annual investment of 60-80 billion yuan [2] - The project will significantly boost infrastructure investment growth in China, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in infrastructure investment in the first half of 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations to enhance power generation efficiency [1] - The total investment is about six times that of the Three Gorges Project, which had a total investment of 207.2 billion yuan [2] Investment Structure - The investment structure for hydropower projects includes approximately 32%-45% for permanent construction, 18%-25% for electromechanical equipment, and 10%-35% for other costs [2] Market Impact - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to effectively stimulate infrastructure investment growth [3] - Recommended companies to watch include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, and several others involved in construction and materials [3]